I am going to try my hand at a mock draft... well, just cause. I am going to make my picks and explain a few other options at the spot and who I think will be availible.
1st. Andrew Luck, QB (RS Jr., Stanford)
This is a no-brainer to me. I love me some Luck. Arm is elite, and many think its the worst part of his game. Good-gawd-a-mighty, he'll be good.
2nd. Cordy Glenn, OG/OT (Sr., Georgia)
This could easily be another O-lineman who falls, which feels like Glenn or Jonathan Martin at this point. My reasoning is this: I think that Glenn is too big of a value here, and that the three big WR's (Blackmon, Floyd, and Wright) are gone. If these two are gone, they go with the best of Randle, Fleener, and Allen, though I think that TE and WR are worth waiting for. Not to over qualify this pick, but I think CB could be the pick here if there is a run o-lineman and WR's.
3rd. Josh Chapman, NT (Sr., Alabama)
The Colts are hoping and praying that Ta'amu or Thompson fall here. I don't think they quite make it with the Steelers, Chargers, and a few other teams who need to fill a major need, or who are planing for a recent future without a stalwart NT. This is a little high for Chapman, but the Colts NEED NT depth more than any other position-- so much they might reach for one in the 2nd. The CB's can suck all they want, but with out a NT this defense won't work. Other options here include any WR/TE/O-Lineman who falls. Watch out for Derek Wolfe here too.
4th. Michael Egnew, TE (Sr., Missouri)
This will kill Colts fans everywhere, but this is where the team begins it's attempts to give weapons to Luck. Adrien Robinson could be the pick too. Other options @ skill positions include AJ Jenkins, Broyles, or Quick. There are actually a lot of Defensive players I like here, too: Jayron Horsley, Minnefield, Boykin, Norman, Cam Johnson, Wolf, or one of the Five-techs (like Crick) could be here.
5th. Tommy Streeter, WR (RS. Jr., Miami)
Streeter has some skills but also needs to develop. If the Colts really wait this long for a WR, then their talk about trusting in Donnie Avery is more than just talk. CB, OG, and a decent 5- tech could be the pick here.
5th. Chas Alexih, DE (RS. Sr., Pittsburgh)
This would be a great pick. He is just the kind of smart, tough, suprisingly skilled, and high motor guys that good defenses have behind their stars. He's the kind that could average 40 tackles and a couple sacks and still be incredibly valuable. TE, ILB, OG, WR all possible.
6th. Emmanuel Acho, ILB (Sr., Texas)
7th. Kevin Koger, TE (Sr., Michigan)
7th. Brandon Washington, OG (Jr., Miami)
7th. Micah Pellerin, CB (RS. Sr., Hampton)
I summarized this because, well, there are too many variable to predict 3rd round picks reliably, let alone 7th rounders. But here is how I see the draft playing out: the Colt's aren't going to improve everything overnight. I think they know this. I think that while we are far worse on the edges (CB/WR) than in the middle, it's not like we have a ton of excellent depth on either line. I think that the Colts recognize that figuring out the protection for Luck is prioity Number 1, and I think the draft board plays perfectly into this. Priority #2 is getting the defensive front seven figured out. TE is the other major position of need, as they litterally don't have enough guys there. If this draft is all about developing for the future, as this team will have a GREAT season if they hit six wins. Give luck protection and allow him to develop, and start installing a defense which will probably take at least one more off-season to become average.
If you count Pellerin, I nailed three picks! I might have nailed a fourth if I actually thought Fleener would make it there. Also Pleased with how close I came to nailing the value of Washington and Acho. This is no suprise, but I thought the FO did much better than my mock had them doing....
Great job! Very pleased throughout as you touched on all of the Colts needs and got some good value on your picks as well. I'm secretyly hoping that Glenn is the pick in the 2nd and I'm really hoping he slides.
Chapman is another guy I want the Colts to keep an eye on, like that too. My only hope is that we go WR higher than the 5th. I understand this is a deep draft for WR but this needs attention as early as the 2nd in my opinion and I was glad to see you touched on that as well. I doubt it but how great would it be if Wright slipped to 34?
Koger and Washington in the 7th would be amazing. Washington could probably contribute at guard as a rookie. I'm really hoping Koger is a Colt. I'm a Wolverines fan and this guy has a lot of tools to be a very productive receiving tight end, he was very under utilized at Michigan. With Luck's penchant for targeting TE's this Koger could be a steal for us.
All in all very pleased with this draft. Only thing I'm hoping for is for a value WR to be there 2nd-4th round.
@GhostofEdgerrinJames Heck-- me too! Like I said, I really wish that we had the flexibility to add a few more players this off season, especially on the offensive line and at Nose Tackle. I just think that it will be better to spend this offseason trying to make three very important areas (QB, O-line, and defensive front seven) into real strengths then trying to become mediocre all over.
I know man, all of this dead cap space sucks some extra flexibility could have gone a long way even for year 1. NT needs depth and we could use at least one more bonafide starter on the o line I think. Unfortuanately we'll have to turn to the draft for both needs. As early as next year though we should be able to spend a bit of money, although another year of high picks and development makes sense before Grigson does anything more than the subtle, solid signings he's been making.
Defensive front 7 needs work but in general I'm ready to be very patient with the defense. Finding true difference makers that made the Ravens so great will take time. I'm with you in that they should target specific areas to address some of these issues rather than spreading their efforts to thin and being 'ok' across the board.
Question, do you think Josh Chapman will be a better NT than McKinney this year for the Colts? I personally would be willing to wait for him later in the draft and not reach, since there still should be a lot of value at this position in the draft still. I do not expect him to start more games at NT than McKinney, and I think if we did not sign him then we could find a short term replacement until next year.
Cody Glenn would be interesting inf he slips that far as well, I just think who ever we draft at 34 needs to be the person who has the best combination of high floor/high ceiling, not sure who that will be but I am excited for a couple of weeks from now.
@paulcareyjr Not necessarily, though I don't think either is really a super great awesome Casey Hampton level player. Chapman is pretty darn good, though. I do think that both Chapman and McKinney would be improved by having one another to give a breather to. Also, Don't be surprised if the three NT's above Chapman-- Poe, Ta'amu, and Thompson--are all gone by that time. Cowboys, Steelers, Broncos, Chiefs ALL have a significant need for a run stuffer of some kind. It just occurred to me that Brockers could be tempting if he happened to fall out of the first-- he could be the type that start out at NT and moves to 3-4 DE, Personally, I was hoping the Colts would have gotten another player at NT-- Sammie Lee Hill and/or Pat Simms were my hopes. I guess Hill could still be had.
Also, and not to be an ass, but isn't the goal of every position in the draft to get the "best combination of floor/ceiling?"
@gbearrin Yeah I think they will all be gone before our 3rd round pick, also Chapman is good at being a pure NT, but not really much other than that, he knows how to occupy blocks well and allow his LBs to make plays, well atleast in college. He still could add some weight to help play the position in the NFL.
I think of Brockers as more of a DE in the 3-4 though due to his size, I would not really want to put him at DT, but I would not mind adding a guy like him as a DE, but we have other needs as well.
high floor/high ceiling is what everyone is aiming for, but at times people tend to draft for need, or take a player with a high floor and low ceiling, I would rather take a player that might have a lower floor but has a ceiling that is much higher than player A.
Example, when comparing a guy like Stephen Hill, and Harrison Smith. I personally would gamble with Hill. Also this thinking also applies to drafting the BPA more than a need pick, if we get both then great but I would rather draft BPA at this point of our rebuilding process.