What predicts championships?
There's lots of maxims and myths about the path to a championship. They're largely wrong and include things like "Defense wins championships!" and "Run the ball and stop the run to win!"
Prior to this weekend's games Kerry Byrne of Cold Hard Football Facts told listeners the best statistic to follow is passer rating differential is at the top of the heap. It simply compares the opponents' passer rating to the offensive passer rating. Without further delay I'd like to point you back to some facts from Mr. Bryne:
Put most simply, wins and losses move in lock step with Passer Rating Differential (PRD), a Cold, Hard Football Facts "Quality Stat" because it has a direct correlation to success. In this case, the correlation is shocking even to the folks who created the stat.
How good is the stat? Consider that 40 of 71 NFL champs since 1940 (56 percent) finished No. 1 or No. 2 in Passer Rating Differential.
Further, if you do the math you'll find that about 90% of all champions finished in the top 5 in passer rating differential. This is, and has been, a passing league my friends.
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@coltsfanawalt Packers, and it isn't close. The Texans score suprisingly well, but a lot of that is Schaub's rating helping the offense.
Packers: 42.0 (122.6 vs. 80.6)
Saints: 24.1 (110.6 vs. 84.5)
Texans: 23.7 (92.7 vs. 69.0)
Patriots: 19.6 (105.7 vs. 86.1)
49ers: 17.8 (91.4 vs 73.6)
Ravens: 12.9 (81.7 vs. 68.8)
Giants: 6.8 (92.9 vs 86.1)
Broncos: -19.6 (73.5 vs. 93.1)
@dmstorm22@coltsfanawalt What are the top 5 in the league? Those are just the playoff teams. Remember that 56% of champions have been #1 or #2 and 90% have been in the top 5.
@coltsauth_todd@coltsfanawalt Yeah, I realized that these don't align with the overall rankings, as they are just the 8 teams left.
I'm guessing the Packers are still tops though. Just a cursory search through teams I thought might compete gave the Falcons at 7.8, Jets at an 8.8, Lions at 15.6 and Steelers at 18.
It looks like the Packers, Saints, Texans and Patriots are 1-4.
