My advice today for GMs is considerably more simple than the previous lessons: make the most of what you have today. Ryan Grigson: LISTEN UP!
The average tenure for a general manager with a team (excluding dictators Jerry Jones and Mike Brown) is 4.2 years. The median for GMs is 3 years. Coaches fare a bit worse with an average of 3.3 years and a median of 2 years. In other words, GMs have approximately the same deal that rookie first rounders get: 3 to 4 years.
As it pertains to the Colts the lesson is quite simple: this is a win-now league. This new era will be granted a bit of leniency in the first year but the gloves will come off if the second year doesn't show signs of success. Not only will the fans tar and feather Ryan Grigson and Jim Irsay if the team flops badly in the second year but it's likely the seat will begin to get hot for Grigson and/or Pagano. It is a tough lesson, but Grigson must produce quickly.
Why? Irsay has stated he sees a full rebuild so he should have patience right? While Irsay was GM (1984-1997) the team had six different head coaches of which three didn't make it to their third year. Let's not get into this year's great purge. Suffice it to say Irsay doesn't believe in staying the course without results. He has proven he is willing and able to make radical changes both as a GM and as an owner.
I don't give this advice lightly as I'm not the only person who sees the possibility of a faster rebuild. However, given the massive roster turnover it may be a very tough road.
With this in mind I firmly believe that Ryan Grigson and Chuck Pagano need to get this team to the playoffs by year 3 at the latest and deep into the playoffs by year 4.