Three years ago, Vic Ketchman of 'Ask Vic' fame predicted that the Colts time on top would be short. He hilariously declared that the Colts were the perfect model of how not to build a franchise. Reading this article will be the highlight of your day.

Six weeks later they won the Super Bowl.

At the core his argument was that Colts had mismanaged the cap.

Pointing out that he was so very, hilariously wrong is not the point of this post.  But I thought I'd point it out anyway.

The other day I linked to the recent updates done at Coltscap.net, but I feel like they need some more attention.

I'm on record as saying I believe the salary cap system is leaving and not coming back.  Like everyone else, I pray I'm wrong.  The salary cap has provided the Colts with a massive competitive advantage.  Because Polian drafts so well, Indy is constantly stocked with cheap, talented players.  This allows the Colts to pay their stars big money, while keeping the team rolling.  What's truly stunning when examining the contracts of the Colts biggest stars is how well they are constructed.

First, note how Polian has organized the salaries.  On a team you want your best players making the most money.  It enforces the idea of merit in the locker room.  When was the last time Indy had a player (not a new pick)  hold out in camp?  I don't think it has happened on Polian's watch.  The best players make the most money, and that keeps guys in line.  Here's Indy's top 10 cap numbers:

My philosophy has always been to build your team into a consistent playoff contender, and then wait for the one year when you get hot at the right time and everything falls in your favor. The Colts are the perfect example of that. My expectation for next season will likely be for the Jaguars to be a playoff contender. That’s as far as I can look ahead at this point.

In looking at the table of the leading passer ratings in the NFL this year, I was disgusted to find how easy it has become to post a huge rating.  Take a look at the top 10 passers in the NFL:

Last year, there were 5 QBs who finished the year at 95 or better.  Peyton Manning won the MVP with a passer rating of 95.  Now, I realize that his rating was a bit lower than a normal MVP, because he was rewarded for his work over the final 8 games of the season, but still, it's mind blowing to see that there are 10 QBs essentially playing at an MVP level right now.  Dig a bit deeper and you find 4 more QBs over 90. It's early in season still, and as the weather worsens some of these ratings will begin to drop on their own, but this is ridiculous.

We've all grown accustomed to the growth of the passing game in the NFL, but this is a quantum leap even from last year, and there is no discernible rule change to cause it.  I don't like the 'Brady rule', but I seriously doubt it's the sole reason QBs are posting massive numbers all over the league.

In fact, the culprit is obvious.  There are a crapload of bad teams.  Just check out Sunday's Hangover (ho ho!  I snuck that plug in on you.  You are permitted to feel violated.).  It's one blowout after another.

My theory is that the 6 worst teams (those with zero or one win) in the NFL are so bad that they are skewing the passing stats.  Check out the top 10 QBs by passer rating against the other 26 NFL teams and verses the Sh***y Six (Cleveland, Detroit, Tampa, Tennessee, the Rams and the Chiefs...a combined 3-37):

The six worst teams in football are ruining the game.  Take out the Six, and you have 7 players over 95 (compared with 5 last year) and just three over 100.   The only guys who haven't benefited from the 6 are Manning (who is incredibly at 114.5 against the other 26 and 114.5 against the 6) and Kyle Orton (and  nobody knows what the hell is up with him).  Tom Brady, Tony Romo, and Aaron Rodgers have feasted on the 6, and their numbers are greatly inflated.

We see three players over 100 (verses 7 this year) and 8 over 94.7 (verses 10 this year).

I think it shows that:

1.  There is clearly inflation this year (although i suppose it could be argued that it's largely just the result of Brady and Manning being healthy).

2.  There will be some regression (see Campbell, Jason and Edwards, Trent)

For the record, here are last year's final standings:

On a scale of absolute metaphysical certitude, predicting today's 42-6 win over the Rams ranked somewhere closer to positing that F = mg than guessing that Barack Obama will suddenly resign the presidency so as to fulfill a life long dream of playing minor league baseball. There was never any sane reason to suspect the Colts would do anything but hammer the Rams.  In the end, there isn't much to do but shrug your shoulders and prepare for the slate of semi-competent to good teams that coming soon...

Reasons To Smile:

• Three more TDs for #18.  He's on pace for 40 TDs.  He's good.
• 4.0 YPA passing for the Rams (including sacks).
• 6-0 for the fourth time in five years
• Jacob Lacey putting the game away.
• Dwight Freeney continuing to dominate opposing QBs
• 6.0 YPC for the Colts backs, led by Brown's sweet run on the stretch play.
  
• With the game still in question, Steven Jackson had 8 carries for 20 yards.
• 4/4 rushing the ball on third and short.
• Foster and Muir making plays all day.  They were hard to miss out there.

Reasons to Frown:

• Pierre Garcon had another rough game.  Yes, he did get the big PI call late, but he picked up another penalty, fumbled, and was targeted at least 8 times with only 3 catches for just 24 yards.  Frenchy adds an  element to the passing game, but I think this team will be better when Anthony Gonzalez comes back.
• After the Colts took a 21-3 lead, Steven Jackson's next 11 carries went for 106 yards.  Now, my first instinct is that I saw some sloppy play from the corners in run support on some of those plays which is to be expected.  Indy was content to let the Rams run all day, it wasn't going to help them come back.  Something seems to have clicked, however, because Jackson's last 4 carries went for 6 yards.  I have a feeling this will be an over played story line this week.
• Pollack, who had some nice blocks, gave up another hit-as-he-throws on Manning.  Wayne caught the pass, but it could have been a pick 6 easily.
• Three more zero or negative yard runs for Joe Addai.  Runs for losses are on the O-line.  While this was a good running day for the Colts, the negative plays are still too prevalent.
• Harlen and Wilcots were a mess.  They babbled through penalties, got things wrong (like Wilcots insisting that Sanders was responsible for safety help on the flea flicker-which he called a play fake-when it looked like Bethea was supposed to be deep), and generally made a mess of the game.
• Field position.  Indy started at the 10, 22, 4, 14, STL 41, 7, 2, 31, 7, and STL 31.  That's 6 drives starting inside the 15 yard line.

Best Call:

Throwing the challenge flag on the horrible spot on Addai's third down run.  I'm not sure why they needed to run the clock down, take a timeout and then throw it, but whatever.  I'm glad it was thrown.

Worst Call:

Punting on fourth and a short one from the 44.  I know it worked out, and Indy gained three yards on the quick exchange, but it was the wrong call anyway.  The Colts were 4/4 on third and short all day.  The odds were very much in their favor if they had gone for it.

Reasons I'm Flyin':

• It's hard to play better than this.
• Hayden and Sanders were rusty early but they are back, and that's going to be a very good thing.
• The defense allowed 6 points.  SIX.  Three of them were basically due to a trick play call (the flea flicker).  The D scored 7.  That's enough to make me happy any day.
• This team is just starting to get healthy.  Knock on wood.

Reasons I'm Dyin':

• Injuries to Brown and Wayne.  Reggie came back, so that's good, but still.  Injuries terrify me.  We all know why.
  
• Manning's 300 yard game streak was snapped.  Ok, so I'm not really dying about this, but I had to write something here.

The Bottom Line:

This was a bit of a fluky game.  Indy jumped on the Rams early and then got pinned deep over and over again.  The Horse played it close to the vest and didn't make mistakes deep in their own territory.  Those kind of turnovers are usually how a weaker team pulls the upset in a game like this.  The Colts were up by so much, so decisively, so early that the game felt like a sleep walk.

It would be easy to jump on the wrong story here and focus on the Rams getting good yardage on the ground (cue Bob Kravitz making a snarky and wrong comment about Ed Johnson being needed...you can bet on it) or the passing game 'only' generating 235 yards, but that's all a distraction.  UPDATE:  Kravitz did just the opposite.  Good on him.

The only story on Sunday was that the Colts have won 15 in a row for a reason: they are an incredible team.  The Rams have lost 17 in a row for a reason:  they are a horrible team.  Today, the incredible pummeled the horrible team.

The Colts are 6-0 (again), and they have three straight tough home games.  The 49ers are slumping, but Houston is not, and New England will be a war.  The meat of the schedule is coming.  This was just the appetizer.

Colts 42  -  Rams 6

PREGAME:

We are all anticipate this game being over by the third quarter, so I make no promises how long I'll stick it out blogging today.  It should be interesting to watch Bob Sanders return the field and to see how the Colts utilize him.  As much press as the Colts' blitz has gotten this year, Mathis and Freeney have combined for 10.5 of the Colts' 13 team sacks.  The blitz hasn't been getting home at all.  Perhaps Sanders is the answer to that problem.

FIRST QUARTER:

• So far so good. Indy stars the game with the ball, and Manning goes 5/6 with a score and 80 yards passing as Indy makes it 7-0. The Rams have no answer for Reggie Wayne at all.  The line play has been uneven, but it's hard to fault that drive.
• The Colts D gives up a field goal on the first possession largely due to a 50 yard flea flicker. The Rams ran 3 times for just 6 yards, but one big play got them in position for a field goal.  No big deal, it was a great play call, and they didn't exactly show an ability to sustain a drive. 7-3 Indy.
• Holy Crap.  That was the craziest fast drive.  Brown blows through on a beautiful stretch run, and then Manning hits Clark for a 27 yard fingertip TD.  Insane.  The stretch looks good early as Addai hit it for 9 yards right and Brown hit 45 yards on a stretch left.  14-3 Colts.  Manning is 7 for 9 for 118 and 2 TDs.
• Nice stand by the D.  The Rams have nothing at all in the run game (other than an 11 yard draw on 2nd and 20), and Bulger is just a little off on the throws and is not getting any help from his WRs.
• Quarter Summary:  Indy dominates play and leads early.  Not much else to say.

• Colts start at the four and go nowhere as Pollack gives up a QB hit on 3rd down.  Manning was hit as he threw, and Wayne saved him from another hit/pick.  Rams ball near midfield trailing 14-3.
• Whoa.  A little zone blitz by Coyer on third and 6.  It leads to Dwight Freeney in coverage breaking up a pass.  It worked, but I don't want to see it again.  The Colts will start at the 13.  BTW:  Steven Jackson has 13 yards on 6 carries.
• Weird drive.  Indy fumbles twice, moves the ball out to midfield, before Caldwell loses his testicles by pointlessly punting on fourth and 1.  Not cool.  The end result is a change of field position as the Rams are pinned inside the 10 now.  I'd rather have the ball at the 44 after a successful fourth down conversion.
  
• Freeney ensures that Caldwell looks good by KILLING Bulger. Bulger fumbled on the play, but the officials bailed him out with a BS call.  The Rams run a give up play on third down and punt.  Indy winds up with the ball on the Rams side of the field.  It's time to put this game away.
• With the news that Reggie Wayne has a strained groin, the Colts pound the ground game.  Brown bursts through with a big run for a first down (before getting hurt) and Joe Addai picked up 2 3rd and 1s, the last of which busted out for a TD.  21-3 Colts.  The Rams have to try and salvage something before the half.
• Nice stand by the end, after a couple of Rams first downs, the pressure of Foster and Mathis led to a sack, before Freeney got MUGGED on third down.  He still got to Bulger and forced an incomplete pass, but how the refs missed the call, I'll never know.

HALF TIME:

This has gone pretty much how we all expected.  The D has smothered the Rams, giving up just one significant play (a 50 yard pass on a flea flicker).  Manning threw for 168, and the run game racked up 93 yards.  The only thing in question is if Manning will get to 300 yards passing.  Considering that Wayne is already out, I doubt it.  The Colts are going to cruise on home in the second half.

THIRD QUARTER:

• Great defensive stand there by the Colts.  It was easy to see lots of hustle by the D-line, and the Rams manage just one first down.  Unfortunately, the punt is downed at the 2.
• It's hard to score from the 2.  The Colts run a give up play on third down and punt.  Rams ball near midfield.
• The D finally gives up some yards, almost all by Steven Jackson rushing.  Muir busts through though and gets a sack, so the Rams only come up with a field goal.  That's not the worst outcome, but the Colts should watch for an onsides kick here.  The offense really needs a TD to ice this game.  15 points isn't a big enough cushion.
• The Colts drive but do not score as Frenchy (who has had a rough couple of games) drops a pass. 
  
• LACEY!  Pick 6.  28-7 Colts.
• Third Quarter Summary:  Colts win the quarter 7-3 thanks to Lacey's score.  The defense has been playing soft (which is understandable considering the lead), so there have been plenty of run yards for the Rams.  That's fine with Indy who is up three TDs.

FOURTH QUARTER:

• The Rams get inside the Colts 10, but on fourth down and 6, Hayden picks off Bulger just outside the endzone.  The Colts will start inside the five (again).  Listen, some things not to freak out about: 1.  the offense.  They've played super conservative today considering they had a huge lead, and consistently have started inside the 10.  2.  The run D.  The Colts dominated the LoS early in the game, but when the lead grew, they gave the Rams the run.  The result?  Lots of yards, lots of clock run, just one field goal.  It was smart football, that's all.
• Indy toys with the Rams.  After another Garcon penalty on third down, he makes up for it by drawing a huge PI call on third and 16.  Manning tosses to Collie for an 8 yard score.  The 300 yard game streak is over, but the Colts have their dignity intact.
• Four plays and out leads to Sorgi time and a nice moment for Chad Simpson who shows some wheels and goes for the TD.  42-6 Colts.

The Colts look to complete a perfect October this week as they visit the St. Louis Rams.  Here are the other NFL games you should keep an eye on.  Keep in mind that Denver, the greatest threat for homefield advantage, has a bye this week.     

Easy Calls

New England at Tampa Bay (England):  Yes, the Pats get one fewer road games this season.  Jerks.  File this game under not-a-chance-in-hell.

Minnesota at Pittsburgh:  This is a big game.  If Favre and AP can take out the Steelers it would pretty much eliminate the possibility of the Colts having to play in Pittsburgh in January.  Which, you know, is a good thing.

San Francisco at Houston:  Another big one.  Houston is starting to make some noise thanks to its prolific passing game.  I'd breathe easier if they would pick up their fourth loss. 

Tougher Calls

Chicago at Cincinnati:  The Bengals only have two losses, so they seem like the obvious pick.  But do we really want the Steelers to win the AFC North?  I don't.  If the Steelers go down in the 1:00 game I'll be more comfortable rooting against Cincy at 4:00.  Complicated enough? 

New Orleans at Miami:  You always root for the NFC over the AFC, right?  Not always.  The Colts have a three game lead plus the tie-breaker over Miami.  The Dolphins are not a threat.  Let's hope Ronnie Brown runs wild, making the Saints look human.  Keep in mind that the Dolphins might be the real threat to the Pats in the East, as far fetched as that sounds.   

I know the game was played about a month ago, but that didn't stop Demond and I from talking about it last night.  Unfortunately, that means I'm a bit late with this week's Eyes in the Backfield, but don't worry it should be coming later today.

18 Plays as always is brought to you by Broad Ripple Tree Service.  You can download the podcast from the link above, you can subscribe via ITunes, or you can listen in the embedded player below.

UPDATE:  The audio problems have been fixed.  If you use ITunes, you may need to redownload the file by clicking on the ITunes link and selecting the episode again.  If you tried the embedded player, you may need to refresh your cache in order to hear the correct version.

For those following the debate about Josh McDaniels' call on Monday night, Guy has posted video of the kick.  He claims the video shows the kick was long enough, thus justifying McDaniels.  I'm not sure the angle is clear enough to say the kick was long enough, but it was clearly a kick that would have been good from a few yards closer, thus illustrating what stupid decision McDaniels made to run a sneak instead of a real play.

Your thoughts?

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Let me begin my brief movie review of District 9 by apologizing for the title of the post.  I doubt that referencing the Postal Service is really the most appropriate way to introduce a sci-fi film, but it's late and it's the best I could do at 12:20.  For that I apologize.  I'm also sorry that I went to the movies instead of taping 18 Plays.  We'll correct that tomorrow night.

As for the movie, it's better than I had hoped...and I expected good things.

In brief, District 9 is the story of what happens when an alien spaceship inexplicably lands over Johannesburg.  The aliens, nearly a million shrimp like creatures, are herded into a giant ghetto and subjected to inhumane conditions.  As is obvious from what I just wrote, there are clearly and intentional parallels to Apartheid to made.  The good news is that while they add resonance to the story, the movie does not use them as a crutch.  It paints a rather bleak portrait of human nature and the future which reminded me of the excellent Children of Men.  It is true science fiction in the Shellian sense.  The morality play at work enriches the story of Wikus the Government Pawn as he becomes, well Wikus the Alien Prawn.  The character of Wikus around whom the plot unfolds reminded me eerily of Murray, the New Zealand Consol.

The movie was well acted and directed.  When I first heard that it was shot documentary style, I envisioned Blair Witch meets Cloverfield.  Instead it was more Saving Private Ryan meets Aliens.  This is a good thing.  It would have been easy to make a bad movie that combined South African politics with documentary style shooting, but fortunately, Peter Jackson didn't direct the film, he only signed the checks.  The result is a horrifying and engaging tale that entertains as it pricks the conscience.  While there are certain leaps of logic required (why didn't anyone bother to talk to the aliens and find out what their deal was), ultimately, the story and the motivations are believable.

But suppose for a moment, that you don't give a crap about science fiction and don't want to waste Friday night being preached at.  This is your movie.  It is full of wonderfully violent shoot outs that are actually exciting as opposed to boring.  There is plenty of cool alien tech and lots of heads get blown off in spectacular ways.  In fact, the action sequences reminded me of Transformers...only, you know...interesting, because there is actually something at stake.

Everything about this movie exceeded my expectations.  If you want to see an exciting movie where stuff gets blown up and dudes get shot...go see this film.  If you want a smart morality tale about human nature...go see the film.  If you are a sci-fi purist who enjoys the creation of other worlds, species, and cultures, go see this film.  If you want a tragic tale of love, loss, and being the wrong guy in the wrong place at the wrong time...go see this film.

If you heard something about District 9 that made you think it might be lame or trite, be assured, it is neither.  It is easily one of the best films I've seen this year, and one of the best pure science fiction films of the decade.

Yep.  He wore a Manning jersey to a public function.  This smacks of Costanza.  Perhaps Fisher is angling for a job as the director of Scouting for the Mets... or Colts.

Props to JMV for pointing this story out via the Jackson and Bullitt show.  Both players were fairly astounded by the story.  I know Fisher's appearance was for a worthy cause, but still, this is pretty nuts.  This sort of reminds me of a quote by another crazy coach we once knew.  Apparently Jeff Fisher just trying to relax and enjoy it. 

For the record, if I needed a coach, Fisher would be one of my first phone calls.  He has won a lot of games with average talent.  Not every coach gets to have Peyton Manning under center.  Remember:  The Titans blew the third overall pick three years ago.  Now they are paying the price.  Think this team would like a do-over with Vandy product Jay Cutler?  That was a popular rumor at the time.  Would they be 0-6?  I doubt it.  There is no way to know for sure, but it is a well known-fact that Fisher didn't want Vince Young.