It's been a long time, but an early 18to88.com staple is back.  The Vince Young Files have returned!

One of the things that caused us to start this blog was our annoyance over the media heaping praise on players who didn't deserve it.  Vince Young became the poster boy for our angst.  We went to great lengths to point out that there is no such thing as a QB who "just wins" in the NFL.  There are bad QBs on good teams, and good QBs on bad teams, but for the most part "making plays" and "moxie" are just lazy ways to explain success without having to do any real analysis.

And so we began The Vince Young Files.  The more the Titans won, the more credit VY got, and the more insane it drove us.  My personal favorite was Volume 2, where we demolished CHFF's fawning over Mister Young.  Our official motto was "We don't hate Vince Young.  We just think he's crazy overrated".  Alas, the rest of the world finally figured out that VY couldn't play, rendering our bold claims and research mundane.  Now, it seems those old articles serve only to keep the flame of the homemade 18to88.com pages alive.

Yet, suddenly and without warning (unless you count getting drubbed by the Patriots 59-0 as a 'warning'), Vince Young stormed back into our lives.  This past Sunday he was particuarly Youngian.  He led a 99 yard TD drive and converted 3 fourth downs in the final minutes to lead the Titans to a win.  Of course, had he not screwed up the end of the first half, the Titans could have just kicked a short field goal and won the game a lot easier.  Ah, but VY giveth and VY taketh away.  Such is the glory of a guy who "just wins"!

Given that the Colts play the Titans this week, it seemed like a perfect time to examine the turnaround by the Titans and figure out exactly what has transpired to turn their fortunes around.  The results suprised me.  In the end, I'm glad VY is back.  He's always fun to write about.

Interesting email today from Hans Stieger.

He is in the process of trying to visit all 31 NFL stadiums (the Jets and Giants share digs, if you'll recall).  Hans has already been to Indy once, and this week he's making a return trip to check out the Luke.

He's looking for a great place to hang with the locals and tailgate.  We've never been big tailgaters ourselves, so if anyone out there has any good suggestions for Hans, put them in the comments of this post.  I'll direct him to check them.

My own stadium journey is a pretty short one. Other than RCA and the Luke, I've been to Soldier Field, Riverfront, Three Rivers, and No One Cares About the Jags Enough to Pay for Naming Rights Field.  I've been to four road games, and our Trip to the Hole was the only winning one.

No matter how hard I try to wrap my mind around the win today, I just can't.

Some things just shouldn't happen.

Today, the Colts posted a comeback unlike any of the their others.  They beat a desperate team, on the road, without Freeney, after playing like crap for a half.  They had the Texans scared even while trailing big. I've never seen anything quite like it.  Wins like this just don't happen in the NFL.

Reasons to Smile:

• Pierre Garcon.  Great catches left and right.  Manning is throwing to him more judiciously, and he's making plays.  The last two weeks he seems to be a good deal more comfortable.  He's making important catches.  Great game, Frenchy.
• Austin Collie rebounding to make big plays in the fourth quarter.  He shrugs off the negative plays (not going OB, stupid holding penalty) and shows up large.
• 2:50 seconds to go 90 yards to take the lead.  Manning is an assassin. 
  
• Larry Coyer's halftime adjustments.  He seems to have a knack for figuring out what is wrong with the defense and correcting it on the fly.  In the first half, the Colts forced just THREE third downs.  In the second half, they forced three turnovers.  That's all you need to know about  how good a job he did. 
  
• Joe Addai.  Big runs all day.  That fourth down run was incredible.
  
• Clint Session.  If he doesn't go to the Pro Bowl, it'll be a crime.
• Pat McAfee.  He is KILLING the kickoffs.  There is zero mystery how the Colts have improved their kick coverage.  They got a guy who routinely puts it deep in the endzone. 
  
• Robert Mathis.  All he does is make huge play after huge play.  He picked up another sack despite Freeney being out.  He stands on his own.
• Chad Simpson's hard running at the end of the game.  He doesn't get many carries, but he makes the most of them.
• Tamme's heady play to bat the onside kick out of bounds.  He did a great job understanding the rules.

Reasons to Frown:

• The O-line was a mess at times.  Two sacks and a 'hit as he throws pick' were ugly.  Two of the Colts' first three drives ended due to bad line play.
• The first half defense.  Seriously, 3 third downs?  Awful.  It reminded me of the infamous Jacksonville game.  The Texans moved the ball at will. It was the worst half of football from a Colts defense in a long time. 
  
• Matt Stover missing the short field goal.  How incredible is it that this didn't cost the Colts?  It felt like one of those, "We just have too many guys hurt" moments. 
  
• Chad Simpson returning kicks.  Wow.  Not good.  TJ Rushing fielding a punt at the five.  Not good either.  I see no evidence our special teams play is actually better.  I just think Indy got a better kicker.  If this was about coaching, wouldn't we see something happen in the return game?  All I see are mistakes.
• Don Brown.  Why was he not in at the end of the game?  He seemed to be running well.  Did he get hurt?  Also, he showed why he hasn't gotten more game time with that miserable job helping CJ on Mario Williams.  You have to block to play, son.
• Phil Wheeler's first half.  He made some nice plays in the second half, but looked lost in the first.  This might have been part of what Coyer corrected.  I'll have to check the tape.
• The lack of pressure in the first half without Freeney was scary.  Fortunately, the blitzes landed a little better later in the game, but we need 93 to get healthy.  He was also missed on the Texans' final drive.
  

Best Call:

Going for it on fourth and inches.  This was the call I've been waiting for all season.  Wonderful.  Stover's miss meant it didn't lead to points, but it's just what you have to do in the NFL.  Great job, Coach.

Worst Call:

It's a nit picky tie.  First, why didn't Caldwell challenge the horrid spot on that very same fourth down?  It looked like Clark had it easy, but that was a terrible spot.  It looked like it would have been an easy challenge.  Secondly, I hated the play call (run wide) on fourth down.  Addai made it happen, but it took a spectacular play by him.  Whatever.  I'm just glad he went for it.

Reasons I'm Flying:

• An AFC South Championship.
  
• The Colts can clinch the #1 seed by going just 3-2 over their final five games.  With three home games, and not a single world beater on the board, there's every reason to assume this is going to happen.
• 15-1 verses the Texans all time.
• Yet another miracle comeback.  I get the feeling this team just expects to win these kinds of games.  That's a good place to be.
• This team can still get better.  In no way does it feel like they are peaking yet.
• Manning made some throws that make me feel like his arm is fine. The rifle shot to Garcon was incredible.

Reasons I'm Dying:

• I've seen life without Dwight Freeney.  I don't like it.
• The defense was so horrid for a half, I was terrified it might never recover.  Unlike the NE game where it seemed like the scheme was wrong, this looked like players were just overmatched and out played.  It was much  more unsettling than even the 24 points allowed to New England.  They looked like they were never going to figure out how to slow the Texans.
  
• The Chargers are playing very well.  We really need NE/SD to finish 2 and 3.  I don't want to play both of them.

The Bottom Line:

The Texans folded.  Yes, the Colts were poised and took advantage of the opportunity, but I've never seen a team just stone cold collapse like Houston came up with today.  From Schaub's first pick on, they played like they expected the Colts to beat them.  It was a gutless effort from the Texans and surely has to signal the end of Gary Kubiak era in Houston.  I'm proud of my team, but they got a lot of help today.  The Texans made stupid turnovers and stupid penalties down the stretch.  They are a talented team, but simply don't have the will to win.

The Colts on the other hand refuse to beat themselves.  Once again, coming down the stretch, they were the calm, collected team, and they let the Texans play themselves right out of the game.

11-0.  Perfect.

There are still 8 games left (hopefully) in the season.  That is a long way to go.  The next three games are likely against equally desperate teams, right now the Colts shouldn't worry about anything except playing their best football.  That's something the NFL hasn't seen yet this year.

Be afraid, AFC.  Be very afraid.

PREGAME:

Charlie Johnson is active for this game, so I suppose that's some good news.

FIRST QUARTER:

• Huzzah!  The Texans get the ball first, but my enthusiasm is short lived.  The Texans converted a key third and 1 early, but never faced another third down the rest of drive.  The Texans convert a 79 yard TD drive that takes up 6: 30.  7-0 Texans.  There's a reason I thought they'd win today.
• The Colts pick up a first down, but the drives stalls as Diem gives up a huge sack on third down.  Ironically, I was chatting with Demond at that precise moment that this game feels like a 20 point loss and that Manning was about to get sacked.  Let's hope I'm only half right.
• Dwight Freeney matters, people.  This team is dead on its feet, and the rout is on.  The Texans never even get forced into a third down. Schaub is 8 for 8.  14-0 Texans.  This game isn't going to get better any time soon.  There are just too many missing/banged up parts to beat a good and desperate team at home.  The offense desperately needs an answer and fast.
• The offense starts inside the 20 after a lackluster return by Simpson.  The offense moved the ball effectively to end the quarter, but face a 1st and 20 after Collie picks up a stupid holding penalty.  The quarter ends with the Colts trailing 14-0.  Not much has gone right. Things have to turn around and fast.  Forcing a third down would be a start.
  

SECOND QUARTER:

• Manning throws a horrible pick as he's hit as he throws.  Texans ball deep in Colts territory.  The Colts can't protect Manning at all.  There's not going to be any comeback today.
  
• The Colts dodge a bullet of sorts as Johnson drops a pass in the end zone.  The D finally forces a third down, and a Houston false start helps kill the drive.  Field goal is good 17-0.  I suppose that's reason for hope.
• The Colts start at the 25 desperately looking to get something going. The Horse drives quickly into scoring position, helped by a personal foul on the Texans.  Addai has a couple of nice runs and a nice catch, and Frenchy makes an incredible catch on third down to get the Colts back on the board.  The Texans lead 17-7, but the defense will have to actually start forcing third downs before I get too excited.  Still, that was a huge drive, and there is plenty of time.
• The Texans start at the 20, as the defense desperately seeks a stop of any kind.  They don't get it.  They don't even force a third down until the Texans had already taken the ball inside the 15 yard line.  The Texans drive finally stalls as Johnson and Schaub miscommunicate.  Brown nails the field goal, and the Colts have a minute to work with.  They also get the ball to start the second half, so a field goal here would loom large.  All you need to know about the defense this half is 4 Texans drives, 2 TDs, 2 FGs, only 3 third downs.  Awful.
• The Colts are a mess right now.  Collie screws up royally by not getting out of bounds.  Manning then throws a pick as he and Wayne screw up the route.  20-7 Texans.

HALFTIME:

What do you want me to say?  This team is playing horrible on both sides of the ball.  Can the Colts score a TD to start the second half?  Sure.  That would make it a one score game.  Can the Defense get the Texans off the field?  I doubt it.

THIRD QUARTER:

• Geeze, the Colts catch a HUGE break as Garcon picks up a PI on the Texans call on a deep ball.  The dicey 43 yard penalty gave the Colts the ball on the 19.  They got first and goal inside the 10, and another  PI call gave the Colts first and goal at the one.  On third down from the four (after Addai gets killed on second down), Manning hits Wayne for a score.  It's 20-14 Colts, and if the defense can find any kind of life, we might just have a game.  That was a weird drive.
• The Texans pick up a huge special teams penalty off the kick off that starts them deep in their own territory.
• WOOOOOOW!  Schaub throws an AN AWFUL PICK.  Bethea makes an incredible spinning pick, and the Colts have the ball with a chance to take the lead.  I'm dumbfounded.  That was a horrible play for the Texans, and an incredible catch by Bethea.  The Texans were moving the ball easily on the Colts, but that was a massive turnover.
• The Colts complete a pass, but Brown and CJ screw up blocking Mario Williams, and Manning takes a huge sack on first down.  The Colts have no chance to pick up another first down.  For everyone who thinks we were overplaying the value of Addai's blocking and wondering why Brown doesn't play more...you have your answer.  The only good news is that McAfee CRUSHES the kick.  Texans' ball at the 10.
• The Texans have fear in their eyes.  A near safety, a short run, a false start and a give up screen add up for a punt.  Wow.  This game has turned 100%.  What's really creepy is how Schaub had ALL DAY to throw on third down and gave up.  I think that last pick is in his head.  Again, the offense will have the ball at the 35 with a chance to take the lead.  Even a field goal here would be a huge step forward.
• Manning hits Clark for what looked like a sure first down, but after a terrible spot, the Colts were forced to go for it on fourth and inches.  Addai makes an incredible run for the first down to keep the chains moving. DeVan picks up a hold a couple of plays later, however, and it would have killed the drive, but Manning hits Frenchy who takes a HUGE hit, but hangs on for a first down.  Garcon has been incredible for two weeks now.  The quarter ends with the Colts scratching the Texans 25 yard line.  This has been a huge drive.  20-14 Houston at the end of three.

FOURTH QUARTER:

• The drive stalls.  A dead run, and two incomplete passes end the drive as Manning misses Collie on third down. Stover yanks the kick.  No score.  20-14 it stays.
• The defense holds again.  After a quick Texans first down, they effectively swarm the Texans into a punt thanks to a nice blitz on third down.  Rushing fields a punt inside the 10, and Indy has to go 90 yards to take the lead.  The missed FG looms large as the clock winds down near 10 minutes to play.
• COLTS LEAD!  MVPEYTON.  Manning drives the Horse 90 yards in what felt like 10 seconds.  Incredible deep ball to Collie, and nice running by Brown and Addai, and the drive is capped off by a TD pass to Clark.  Incredible.  I'm speechless.
• CLINT SESSION TO THE HOUSE!  Unbelievable.  28-20 Horse.  This team is unlike anything I've ever seen.  There are no words.
• ROBERT MATHIS!  STRIP SACK!  COLTS BALL!  COLTS BALL!  It's time to just run the ball and end this game.
• CHAD SIMPSON FOR 6!  The Texans have quit folks.  100% quit.  I'd fire Kubiak tomorrow. This was embarrassing.
• The Texans take a year and a day to finally get back in the endzone.  They'll have an onside kick with :18 seconds and one timeout remaining
• Tamme smacks the ball out of bounds on the onside kick.  Indy ball.  Game over.

Let me just end this live blog by saying how stunned I am.  I've seen lots of comebacks by the Colts, but this...this was unreal because of how badly they played in the first half.  Last year's Houston comeback was afluky kind of win, with two Texans turnovers making all the difference.  This was something else entirely.  The defense, which could not have played worse in the first half, took over the game in the second half, with the big players (Bethea, Session, Mathis) making big plays.  Did I think it was possible.  No.  It's not that I didn't believe in the offense, I just couldn't accept the defense could turn it around without Freeney.

It's nearing crunch time.  The Colts find themselves in an enviable position, to say the least.  It is very difficult to decide who to root for until you've decided how you would like the final AFC standings to look.  DZ and I talked it over this morning and this is what we came up with...

1.  Indianapolis

2.  San Diego

3.  New England

4.  Cincinnati

5.  Denver

6.  Pittsburgh

This seeding order would mean a couple things:  First, it would ensure that the Colts would not have to play both San Diego and New England en route to the Super Bowl.  A good thing, right?  Second, it would ensure a very difficult route for both New England and Pittsburgh.  The Pats would have to beat the Steelers at home, the Chargers on the road, and then likely the Colts on the road.  Indy, on the other hand, would likely play the winner of Denver and Cincinnati in the divisional round and then either New England or San Diego in the AFC championship.  With that in mind, let's take a look at the important NFL games of week twelve.

Easy Calls

Cleveland at Cincinnati:  The Bengals are still a threat for the one seed.  They need to lose one more time.

Jacksonville at San Francisco:  Someone needs to put the Sparklecats out of their misery.  That team has no business making in the playoffs, and would only serve as fodder for whoever hosts them.

Arizona at Tennessee:  Same story here.  I don't see any benefit in rooting for the Titans to stay hot.  Although it might force management to keep VY.  Hmm... 

New England at New Orleans:  The Pats in the three seed would be ideal.  Losing this game would go a long way towards this happening.

Tough Calls

Kansas City at San Diego:  The Chargers are still alive for the one seed.  I hope they lose, but they can't lose too many more games if the above scenario is to play out. 

Pittsburgh at Baltimore:  The Steelers aren't really an essential part of our "plan", so I'll root against them.  I dislike them. 

Current AFC Playoff Standings

1.  Indianapolis (10-0)

2.  Cincinnati (7-3)

3.  San Diego (7-3)

4.  New England (7-3)

5.  Denver (7-4)

6.  Jacksonville (6-4)

7.  Pittsburgh (6-4)

8.  Baltimore (5-5)

9.  Houston (5-5)

10.  Miami (5-5)

I'm taking a brief pause from football to recognize the candidacy of Barry Larkin for the Hall of Fame.  Larkin is third on my list of all-time favorite athletes (behind 18 and 31).  I had planned a lengthy defense of Larkin, but there have already been several excellent ones written by others.  Rather than duplicate their work, let me point you towards the following excellent and comprehensive pieces:

Associated Content gives a six page examination of Larkin's merits.

How does Larkin compare to the players above (HoF SSs)? His hitting rate stats of .295/.371/.444 place him on the cusp between the Offensive Elite and the Offensive 2nd Tier. His 198 career home runs would place him near 2nd among Hall of Fame Shortstops; behind only Ernie Banks (Cal Ripken holds the record for SS, with 345 and should be elected to the hall in 2007). Add in his 379 stolen bases and 3 gold glove awards, and Larkin begins to look more and more favorable compared to many Shortstops already in the Hall of Fame.

Hard Ball Times compares Larkin's prime to Jeter's

Just for fun, take a look at the similarities between Larkin's career through 1996 and a mystery shortstop's current numbers:

               G   2B  3B   HR   BB   SB  CS  RCAP   WS
Larkin      1328  254  48  135  545  275  51  341   241
Mystery SS   366  283  42  150  559  201  52  328   219

Now, in the interest of full disclosure I've done a little cherry-picking of stats to make the comparison work. Those numbers take Larkin through his age-32 season, while our mystery shortstop was just 30 years old last year. Still, they are pretty damn close through 1,300 games or so. And Larkin put up those numbers in a far less friendly environment for offense than our masked man has played his entire career in. If you account for that and adjust Larkin's rate stats accordingly, here is how the two shortstops compare through ~1,300 games:

               G   AVG   OBP   SLG   OPS  IsoD  IsoP
Larkin      1328  .305  .379  .487  .866  .074  .182
Mystery SS  1366  .315  .385  .463  .848  .070  .148

By now you've probably figured out that our mystery man is none other than Captain Dreamboat himself, Derek Jeter. While I've been known to pick on Mr. Clutch at times, the one thing the man can clearly do is hit. So I mean it as nothing less than a huge compliment when I say that when it comes to hitting, Barry Larkin was Derek Jeter before Derek Jeter. Add in years of good defense and a career that produced 147 RCAP, 105 Win Shares, four All-Star appearances, and three legitimately outstanding seasons after 1996, and Larkin should be a no-brainer for the Hall of Fame.

Larkin holds up wonderfully compared with other HoF SSs using WAR

The final thing to take away from that figure is where Larkin fits with respect to the HoF zone.  The top of that zone is the average Hall of Famer's career line on a WAR graph like the one above.  The bottom of that zone is roughly the 20th percentile of HoF'ers, sometimes referred to as the "replacement hall of fame" line.  Larkin is comfortably within--and sometimes over--the top of that zone every year of his career.  This confirms what the Appling & Smith comparisons tell us--he had comparable careers to those guys, who are fairly average Hall of Fame players (i.e. they were superb players).

Joe Posanski says, "You had to see him to apriciate him

As a player, well, Larkin was an amazing player to watch every day. Yes, I cringe when I hear that "you have to see him every day to appreciate him" cliche... but it really was amazing how many times we would be watching from the box and Larkin made a play that left you shaking your head in admiration. I suppose it felt that way because he was such a well-rounded player -- Bill James in the New Historical Abstract called Larkin one of the 10 most complete players in baseball history (italics his). He could do so many different things that could impress you.

• Larkin stole 379 bases -- and at remarkable 83 percent success rate.

• Larkin never struck out 70 times in a season, and walked 112 more times in his career than he struck out.

• Larkin hit double-digit home runs nine times, and as many as 33 in a season.

• Larkin finished in the top 10 in batting average four times, runs scored five times, walks three times, stolen bases five times, on-base percentage three times, slugging twice. He won three Gold Gloves. He won the MVP, the Lou Gehrig and the Roberto Clemente Awards. He made 12 All-Star Teams. He hit .353 in his one World Series appearance. And he played with a certain style -- he was just a graceful player. He made great defensive plays without diving, and stole bases with a seeming effortlessness.

This is nice page with links to two excellent PDFs on Larkin's merits

The sentiment out there seems to be that it might take Larkin awhile to get in, because people have forgotten how good he is.  There simply are no credible arguments for excluding him (unless someone wants to ignore position eligibility altogether and compare SS with OF and 1B). Ultimately, he was a player who helped change the position of short stop from strictly a defensive one to one where offense could be expected.  Larkin will eventually get voted in because his candidacy is too strong to ignore.  His case is much stronger than say...Jim Rice's.

Larkin will be in the Hall of Fame.  It's just a question of when.

I've never been to Cooperstown, NY.  But I'll move heaven and earth to be there the day Barry Larkin gets in.

Phil B. greets us this morning with a story about the #1 defense in the NFL.  The discussion yesterday got me wondering if the 2009 defense might be the best in Colts' history. It's important to gain some sense of context as we talk about these teams.  Understanding past Colts squads can help us avoid overstatements and prevent us from falling into the trap of "whatever is happening RIGHT NOW is the greatest, best, worst...".  I've gone through the all the Colts' teams since the move to find the five most worthy candidates.  My primary criteria was league ranking in points allowed, but no matter how you slice it, these five are really the only contenders.  The only other options would be the fraudulent 2002 team that gave up 41 points in the playoffs (they get on this list over my dead body) and the 2006 team, but only the playoff version.  That is obviously not a valid comparison.

Here are the 5 best Colts defenses in chronological order:

1987 Colts (15 Games):

1995 Colts

2005 Colts

2007 Colts

2009 Colts (10 games)

Observations:

• Note I'm not using yards to rank the defenses.  Yards are utterly irrelevant.  Defense is about points and turnovers.
• The 1987 Colts forced an insane 44 turnovers in 15 games.  They were aided greatly by a 7 turnover game against Buffalo and a 5 turnover game against the Jets during the first two 'scab' games.  The '87 team had a good D, but the numbers aren't all that useful thanks to the bogus games.
• The '95 Colts had a solid D, but it was a cut below the rest.  Still, they were very strong in the playoffs, and I'm glad to have them represented.
• The 2007 Colts managed to weather injuries throughout the year, but folded in the playoffs due to a lack of pass rush with Freeney being out. 
  
• The 2009 Colts might not have as many dominant games (under 10 points) as the 2005 team, but it seems likely that they'll allow fewer 20 point games than any Colts' team since the franchise came to Indy.

The Verdict:

I'm going with the 2007 "Pre-Freeney Injury" Colts.  I know that's cheating because you have to take the whole season, but they forced a few more turnovers than the 2005 and 2009 Colts.

It's interesting to see how closely the 2005 and 2009 Colts mirror each other.  The 2009 team has been a bit more steady (3.9% variance to 6.6% for 2005 for the DVOA math nerds who care).  Both teams forced the same number of turnovers, and the PPG difference is negligible.  If we want to get down to 'yards' as a measure (just to differentiate a little more), the 2005 Colts were 11th over all (307 ypg), and the 2009 Colts are 15th (326 ypg).  Both teams had a 'shoot out' style game (2005 Colts won a wild one down in Cincinnati).

Truthfully, however, there is no reason the 2009 Colts can't become the best defense in Indianapolis history.  They certainly merit inclusion in the discussion at this point, and need only a couple of more games at a high level to lay a serious claim to the title.  If they go out and shut teams down in the playoffs, it'll be a moot point.

Everyone will remember 2009 as the Year of The Defense in Indianapolis.

UPDATE:

35er wrote to ask about some drive efficiency stats (like points per drive).  Fortunately, we have the footballoutsiders wealth of data to help us. Note that "Drive Success Rate" is: the percentage of down series that result in a first down or touchdown. For a defense, the lower the number, the better.

2009:

2007:

2005:

The data doesn't help much.  All three measured teams (data not available before 1998) are right about in the same spot.  Indy always plays a "bend, don't break" defense which will lead to low rankings in yards/drive.  The 2009 team may just give up more yards due to longer kickoffs (the 2009 team has the best starting LoS of the three).  The one area that shows is that the 2007 team forced a turnover better than once every 5 drives.