The draw for the 2010 World Cup took place today in South Africa.

The Yanks took a manageable draw getting paired up with England, Algeria and Slovenia.

The team I actually care about fared even better as Argentina got South Korea, Nigeria and Greece.  The Argentine press is ecstatic.  Considering how badly the Argentine team struggled recently, getting a reasonably cushy draw is a major relief.

The Group of Death is clearly Group A which pits the hosts South Africa with Mexico, France, and Uruguay.

189 more days.

I can't wait...

Yesterday, we examined the offense to see how it has improved over 2008, today we'll look at the defense.  It's harder to gauge each specific position on the defense because there simply aren't a lot of reliable statistics to go by.  Instead of looking position by position, I'm going to use a variety of key indicators and hope that sheds light on where and how the Colts have improved.

Points Allowed:

The 2008 Colts allowed 18.6 PPG, the 2009 Colts have allowed 16.8.  A drop of two points a game would certainly seem to indicate an overall improvement from the defense, especially because the 2008 Colts were bolstered by a year end shut out of the Titans who had 'shut it down'.

DVOA:

The 2008 Colts had an overall DVOA of 0.1% .  They were the definition of an average NFL defense.  They were 1.2% against the pass and -1.0% against the run. Perfectly average. The 2009 Colts have improved across the board and currently have a DVOA of -4.8%.  They have improved against both the run and the pass (-5.4% and -4.0%).

Turnovers:

The 2008 Colts picked off 15 passes and forced 22 fumbles, recovering 11.  The 2009 Colts have picked off 13 passes, forced 12 fumbles and have recovered 8.  Projected over 16 games, that's 19 picks and 17.5 forced fumbles. Assuming the Colts' recovery rate returns to normal on fumbles (50%), Indy is looking at roughly 29 turnovers forced.  That's a very modest increase from 2008 (more picks, fewer fumbles).

Defensive Passer Rating:

The 2008 held opposing passers to a 78.0 passer rating, allowing a record 6 TD passes verses 15 picks.  The 2009 Colts have allowed a few more TD passes (9 already), but have managed to improve their overall defensive passer rating to 76.5.  They've done so by picking off more passes, and dropping their opponents YPA from 6.7 yards last year to 6.3 yards this year.   This is a direct result of better corner play.  Remember that at one point last year, Indy was starting Tim Jennings and Ratliff at the corners.  Lacey and Powers have clearly upgraded the pass defense.

Sacks:

The 2008 Colts had an adjusted sack rate of 5.6%.  The 2009 Colts have upped that to 7.0%.  In 2008, Freeney and Mathis accounted for 22 of the Colts 30 sacks (73.3%).  This year, they have combined for 19 of the 26 sacks (73%).  This is interesting because of how much more the Colts have blitzed.  It seems the blitz isn't helping the Colts get sacks from more places, but rather is helping free up Freeney and Mathis.  At their current pace, they will finish with somewhere around 14 sacks a piece.  The pass rush is still just Freeney and Mathis, but perhaps the blitz is freeing them up to get home more often.

The 2008 Colts had 30 sacks on the year, and the 2009 Colts are on a pace for 38.  That's basically a half a sack per game improvement.

Drive Success:

The 2008 Colts allowed 33.29 yards, 1.77 points, and 0.172 turnovers a drive with a "drive success rate" of 0.706.  The 2009 team bests all of those numbers allowing 29.9 yards, 1.59 points, and 0.176 turnovers a drive with a drive success rate of 0.678.

WR Coverage:

Here's where we see the improved corner play.  The 2008 Colts were TERRIBLE against #1 WRs, allowing a DVOA of 21.4% (28th in the NFL).  Indy was good against 2nd and 3rd WRs (-15.8% and -10.8% respectively) in 2008, but got torched by #1s.  In 2009, they have posted a DVOA of 3.6% against #1s, a massive improvement.  The over all performance against all types of WRs is more consistent (-0.7% and -1.2%) though not as good.  To me, that would indicate more consistent corner play overall in 2009 as opposed to one glaring weak link in 2008.  The Colts' have also improved DRAMATICALLY against TEs and RBs.  The 2008 Colts posted numbers of 2.4% and 8.4% against TEs and RBs (with Gary Brackett missing a third of the year).  This year, the Colts have shot up against both with excellent numbers of -13.9% and -18.8% (both top 10 in the NFL).  Those numbers would indicate that the linebacker play has greatly improved this year as they are most often responsible for backs and TEs.

Power Running:

There is some evidence the DTs are playing better as well, at least on short yardage.  The 2008 Colts stopped power runs only 22% of the time (30th in the NFL).  The stuffed runs for zero gain or losses only 16% of the time.  In 2009, the Horse has improved.  Power runs are now stopped 34% of the time (17th in the NFL), though Indy has actually gotten worse at stuffing run plays (14%, 31st in the league).

Third Down Percentage:

Not much has changed.  The 2008 Colts were last in the NFL, allowing opponents to convert an astounding 47% of third downs.  The 2009 Colts are better, but not much.  They are 29th in the league at 44%.

Summary:

By every meaningful standard the 2009 Colts' defense is better than the 2008 defense.  They get more pressure; they force more turnovers; they allow fewer points.  In some cases, the improvements are modest, but across the board, the Colts have improved.  There is every reason to expect a better fate for the 2009 Colts than the 2008 Colts.  The 2009 Colts are better on offense and on defense.  Tomorrow, we'll examine the special teams play and the coaching.

I'm going to double dip on this post and kick things off by announcing that 18 Plays is up for last week's game.  18 Plays is the official podcast of 18to88.com and is brought to you by Broad Ripple Tree Service (which rumor has it is enthusiastically endorsed by a guy who was once unenthusiastically endorsed by Vern Flemming).  You can check out the podcast by downloading it from the link above, subscribing via ITunes, or listening in the embedded player below.  There's some cool stuff this week, including (what I think was) good insight into the Reggie Wayne TD pass.

Moving right along, Tom Gower of Total Titans stops by again today for a little give and take on Sunday's game.  You can check out my answers to his questions here.

DZ:  1.  Vince Young is statistically playing the best football of his NFL career.  What has been the biggest improvement in his game to date?

A few months ago I looked at the various units on the Colts' team to assess if they were better or worse than last season.  Looking back, I'm encouraged that I was wrong about some of those assessments (I would no longer rate the Coaching as "Worse").  As a whole, we would all agree that the Colts are a better team now than last year.  Certainly, the record would indicate improvement (11-0 verses 7-4 a year ago).

Let's go deeper into the numbers and see how the 2009 Colts compare with their ill fated counterparts from a year ago to see if this year's team is truly better equipped for a playoff run.  We'll start with the offense today, and tackle the defense tomorrow, with the special teams and coaching on Saturday.

Quarterback:

Statistically, Manning has been a bit better than in 2008, although that's largely because he got off to a slow start last year.  His DVOA right now is at 38.6%, last year he finished at 36.1%.  But essentially, 2009 Manning is the same Manning we had for the last several weeks of 2008.  Let's call this one a wash.

Running Backs:

The perception is that Addai is playing better than he did in 2008.  That's true to some extent, but mostly he's just healthier.  Last year, he had 155 carries for the season.  Currently he's at 160.  He's also caught 15 more passes this season than all of last year.  His YPC is up (barely), as is his DVOA (3.8% from -1.3%) and his success rate (52% from 48%).  Don Brown has clearly out performed Dom Rhodes from last year as well, although Brown's health may cause the Colts to bring Dom back before it's all over with.  As a unit, the Colts are rushing for 3.9 YPC this year as opposed to 3.4 YPC last year, and the trend is upward.

Wide Receivers:

Dallas Clark and Reggie Wayne are having better years than they did last year.  Pierre Garcon is set to surpass Marvin Harrison's 2008 production.  Garcon has a DVOA of -.08 and 37 catches for 574 and 4 TDs and a catch rate of 52%.  Marv finished last year with a DVOA of -9.2%, 60 catches for 636 and 5 TDs with a catch rate of 56%.  Garcon will likely pass Harrison's yardage and TD totals in the next couple of weeks.  The only slight regression the Colts have seen is from the slot.  Last year, AG caught 72% of passes thrown his way for a DVOA of 26.2%, and conventional stats of 57, for 664 and 4 TDs.  Collie's numbers are great for a rookie, but not up to that level of production.  He has caught 69% of passes for a DVOA of 14.5% with 43 catches for 483 and 4.  By the end of the year, Collie should surpass Gonzo's production from last year in terms of volume, but fall just short in terms of quality.  As a unit, the WRs are clearly better than they were last year.

O-Line:

In terms of pass protection, the Colts adjusted sack rate is slightly higher in 2009 than in 2008, but only slightly and still ranks first in the NFL.  It's important to note that at the same time, Manning's YPA is up from 7.2 YPA to 8.1 YPA, indicating slightly more time to throw.  In terms of run blocking, the Colts were 23rd in 2008, 21st in power running (62%), and the second most 'stuffed' team in the league (21% of runs resulted in no gain or a loss).  It didn't much matter which direction they ran in, unless they ran right where they were 31st.  Now a year later, the Colts have replaced three starters (depending on how you count moving CJ from guard to tackle), and the run blocking has improved.  Indy is now up to 14th in "adjusted line yards", and power runs are up slightly to 65% and stuffs are down slightly to 20%.  Those aren't massive improvements, but they are improvements, and as we've noted, the run game seems to be trending upward right now.  The Colts are now respectable running in most directions (third in the league running up the middle), but have fallen off on runs around the left end (25th in the league).  As a whole, it's fair to say that the offensive line has shown slight improvement.

Offensive Summary:

The 2008 Colts had an offensive DVOA of 22.1% good for 5th in the league.  The pass offense was second at 41.8%, and the run offense was 27th at -6.5% (below average).

The 2009 Colts have an offensive DVOA of 26.1% good for 3rd in the league.  The pass offense is 5th at 49.6%, and the run offense is 15th at 2.2%.  Essentially, that means the Colts have gone from a below average rushing attack to a perfectly average rushing game.

The Colts offense is simply better now than it was a year ago.  The passing game is more sound (although that may just be the effect of a healthy Manning all year) and the running game has become respectable.

It doesn't just feel like the 2009 Colts are better on offense than the 2008 Colts...they are better.

Last season we got the MVP train rolling on Peyton Manning while the Colts were still 5-4.  It was easy to look at the schedule, foresee a string of wins against lesser defenses and posit that 18 was going to jump to the front of a very mediocre pack of MVP candidates.  Along the way, Manning's case was helped by 8 straight wins, but also by Adrian Peterson fumbling the ball constantly, Drew Brees melting down in the fourth quarter of must win games, and Kurt Warner looking ancient in awful losses to the Eagles and Patriots.  In the end, everything broke Manning's way, and he captured his third MVP award.  We eagerly chronicled the chase every step of the way because 2008 was Manning's greatest season and because we knew in our hearts the 2008 were a flawed, broken team that had no real title shot.  Rooting for Manning to win the MVP award was all we really had. The award was a recognition of how great 18 was and just how weak that team was.

Now a year later, Manning is again in the conversation for MVP along with Favre and Brees.  Apparently, that's the new MVP formula:  Manning, Brees, and some really old QB having a nice year.  Still, we've barely discussed the issue, and you won't find any impassioned pleas here today.  Do I think Manning is the MVP?  Of course I do.  But there's two reasons not to worry about it yet.  First is that there's too much of the season to play out.  It's simply too early to talk MVP.  I have a feeling the issue will clarify itself dramatically in the coming weeks.  Second, there are bigger issues this season.  The 2009 Colts are a Super Bowl caliber team.  All focus is on the entire team, as it should be. The MVP race is a distant second behind what could be the most spectacular regular and post season in NFL history.  We have GREAT teams.  We have living legends playing at the peak of their powers.  The NFL has never been better than it is right now

Here are the cases for the top four MVP candidates and what they have to do to win the award in the final five weeks.  Please note, this isn't how I would vote, just how I see the race shaping up.  Don't argue with me that so and so is too low or too high based on any sane reason.  This is how I think the media who votes will see things:

1.  Brett Favre

The case for:  a 10-1 record, 24 TDs and 3 picks, a 112 rating.  Say what you will, it's hard to argue with those numbers.  Currently 5-0 verses the NFC North (4-2 last year).

The case against:  Took over a 10 win team from last year.  The Vikings also added Percy Harvin and have gone from 32nd in Special Teams to first this year.  None of that has anything to do with Favre.  Oh, and there's this running back they have that I've heard is sort of talented.  Favre joined a stone cold stacked team.  He's playing great, but the Vikes probably won't finish more than 3 or 4 games better with him than without him.

What he has to do to win:  If he keeps his rating north of 105, and finishes the final five games with a TD/INT ratio of 2:1, and the Vikes go at least 4-1, he'll almost assuredly win.  Manning or Brees would have to lead their team to an undefeated season to beat him out.  The hype is only going to escalate from here.  However, if the Vikes go 3-2 and Farve throws some picks, the window is open for another player.  I'm not saying I like it, I'm just saying this is the reality of 2009.  It's about Favre until it isn't.

2.  Peyton Manning

The case for:  6 fourth quarter comebacks, an 11-0 record, a rating of 102.5, leads the league in completion percentage and yards, doesn't have a great running game, breaking in two young receivers, has a rookie head coach. He scares the living hell out of Bill Belichick.

The case against:  He won last year (a very lame, but VERY real reason).  He has thrown 6 picks in his last three games.  As great as he is, this season lacks the epic "I'm willing this team to win" vibe that he had last season.  He also didn't beat the Packers twice.

What he has to do to win:  Finish 16-0 and/or break Ken Anderson's single season completion percentage record of 70.5% (currently he's at 70.4%).  He must lead the league in passing yards, and needs a TD/INT ratio of 3:1 over the final five games.  Manning can still pull this out, but he'll have to play off the charts down the stretch to do it.  He's still topping a lot of MVP boards, but the perception is that the Colts are about to go into shell mode.  This feels like 2005 all over again.  Manning had the award locked with 12 weeks to go, but taking the air out of the ball killed that.  Honestly, that's what I expect to happen this year.

3. Drew Brees

The case for:  11-0.  Huge numbers, including leading the NFL in passer rating.  A perfect game on MNF over the Pats (possibly the best modern passing game in history).  There's a sense that it's 'his turn'.

The case against:  Massive talent surrounding him. The Saints have a great run game this year, and he has a bevy of talented players and a coach with a wide open style.  He's never won a Super Bowl so people don't take his regular season numbers as seriously (don't ask me what that has to do with anything, but trust me, it does).

What he has to do to win: Finish 16-0.  He's already done everything else.  If the Saints win out, Brees is the MVP.  If the Colts and Saints both win out...I think Manning takes it.  Since I don't expect Indy to play for 16-0, I think Brees can win the award with a perfect season.  Otherwise, I can't see him leap frogging Favre.

4.  Chris Johnson

The case for:  Leads the NFL in rushing.  Three 85 yard TD runs in a season is more than any player has had in his entire career.  He is an explosive dominant player on a hard charging team.

The case against:  He's a running back.  His team is 5-6.  He's a boom/bust guy.  Lots of long runs, but his success rate is 28th in the NFL.  That makes for gaudy numbers, but an inflated 'true value'.

What he has to do to win:  If the big three play soft down the stretch, and he rushes for 2000 yards AND the Titans win 10 games and make the playoffs, Chris Johnson could win the MVP award.  In the immortal words of George W. Bush, "Nah gah dah".

In watching the tape of Sunday's game, it's hard not to notice the massive difference between the Indy blitz in the first half and the second half.

By my count, the Colts blitzed 7 times in the first half.  5 of the 7 lead to positive plays for the Texans.  Indy blitzed 6 men three times, with two of the three ending poorly for the Colts.  A Colts' blitz reguarly ended in a big gain for the Texans.

In the second half, the Colts blitzed 8 times, but 5 of the 8 ended well, including two of the key plays of the game: Clint Session's interception and Mathis's strip sack.  In fact, most of the negative second half blitzes for the Colts occurred on the final Texans drive after the game was decided and the DBs were playing loose, and one of those was simply the result of an excellent athletic play by Schaub to escape good pressure.

So in all, I tallied a total of 15 blitzes, with 7 successful attempts.  That's not a great percentage overall, but it's clear the blitz was effective in the second half as it caused two huge turnovers.

Here are my observations as to why the blitz was more effective in the second half:

• In the second half, it seems like the Colts were told to ignore the P/A fakes.  On one play in particular, a blitzing Session totally ignores a fake hand off and stays right on Schaub, forcing him to throw the ball away to avoid a safety.  It may just be that the Colts decided they weren't going to let Schaub beat them through the air.  The Texans really got away from the run.  It's one of the reasons I felt like they panicked.
  

• On a couple of plays, the difference was all Mathis.  He got home on a couple of plays where the Colts blitzed.  Sometimes, the blitz helped occupy the back who would have doubled him (like on his strip sack), but at least once, he just whipped his man straight up.  Robert Mathis played an incredible game and was all over the field in the second half.

• The Colts disguised the blitzer better in the second half.  They frequently ran Brackett and Session up to the line and rotated which one actually came.  This was the key move in Session's pick.  He faked blitz (Brackett did blitz) and dropped into coverage.  Brackett got doubled, which let the DT get in on Schaub who threw quickly to his right.  He never recognized that Session had dropped into coverage, and Clint took it to the house.  At other times, the Colts would show blitz and only rush three men.  This seemed to frustrate Schaub into making bad decisions.

Normally, I wouldn't put this on the front page, but the FO numbers for WRs through week 12 are out, and they confirm what we've all seen the last couple of weeks:

Pierre Garcon has been playing well.

Specifically, his DVOA (the per-play rating of how above or below average a player is) is up to -0.8%.

In essence that means that for the year, Frenchy is an average NFL wide reciever.

Why celebrate that?  Because for most of the year he has hovered around -15% (15% worse than an average NFL wideout).  For him to get his yearly total back to virtually zero means he's been playing very well for a couple of weeks now.  His catch rate is up to 53% (after bottoming out at 47%).

Garcon has been great in back to back games, and his play is clearly on the rise.  I'm very happy for him.

It's been a long time, but an early 18to88.com staple is back.  The Vince Young Files have returned!

One of the things that caused us to start this blog was our annoyance over the media heaping praise on players who didn't deserve it.  Vince Young became the poster boy for our angst.  We went to great lengths to point out that there is no such thing as a QB who "just wins" in the NFL.  There are bad QBs on good teams, and good QBs on bad teams, but for the most part "making plays" and "moxie" are just lazy ways to explain success without having to do any real analysis.

And so we began The Vince Young Files.  The more the Titans won, the more credit VY got, and the more insane it drove us.  My personal favorite was Volume 2, where we demolished CHFF's fawning over Mister Young.  Our official motto was "We don't hate Vince Young.  We just think he's crazy overrated".  Alas, the rest of the world finally figured out that VY couldn't play, rendering our bold claims and research mundane.  Now, it seems those old articles serve only to keep the flame of the homemade 18to88.com pages alive.

Yet, suddenly and without warning (unless you count getting drubbed by the Patriots 59-0 as a 'warning'), Vince Young stormed back into our lives.  This past Sunday he was particuarly Youngian.  He led a 99 yard TD drive and converted 3 fourth downs in the final minutes to lead the Titans to a win.  Of course, had he not screwed up the end of the first half, the Titans could have just kicked a short field goal and won the game a lot easier.  Ah, but VY giveth and VY taketh away.  Such is the glory of a guy who "just wins"!

Given that the Colts play the Titans this week, it seemed like a perfect time to examine the turnaround by the Titans and figure out exactly what has transpired to turn their fortunes around.  The results suprised me.  In the end, I'm glad VY is back.  He's always fun to write about.

Interesting email today from Hans Stieger.

He is in the process of trying to visit all 31 NFL stadiums (the Jets and Giants share digs, if you'll recall).  Hans has already been to Indy once, and this week he's making a return trip to check out the Luke.

He's looking for a great place to hang with the locals and tailgate.  We've never been big tailgaters ourselves, so if anyone out there has any good suggestions for Hans, put them in the comments of this post.  I'll direct him to check them.

My own stadium journey is a pretty short one. Other than RCA and the Luke, I've been to Soldier Field, Riverfront, Three Rivers, and No One Cares About the Jags Enough to Pay for Naming Rights Field.  I've been to four road games, and our Trip to the Hole was the only winning one.

No matter how hard I try to wrap my mind around the win today, I just can't.

Some things just shouldn't happen.

Today, the Colts posted a comeback unlike any of the their others.  They beat a desperate team, on the road, without Freeney, after playing like crap for a half.  They had the Texans scared even while trailing big. I've never seen anything quite like it.  Wins like this just don't happen in the NFL.

Reasons to Smile:

• Pierre Garcon.  Great catches left and right.  Manning is throwing to him more judiciously, and he's making plays.  The last two weeks he seems to be a good deal more comfortable.  He's making important catches.  Great game, Frenchy.
• Austin Collie rebounding to make big plays in the fourth quarter.  He shrugs off the negative plays (not going OB, stupid holding penalty) and shows up large.
• 2:50 seconds to go 90 yards to take the lead.  Manning is an assassin. 
  
• Larry Coyer's halftime adjustments.  He seems to have a knack for figuring out what is wrong with the defense and correcting it on the fly.  In the first half, the Colts forced just THREE third downs.  In the second half, they forced three turnovers.  That's all you need to know about  how good a job he did. 
  
• Joe Addai.  Big runs all day.  That fourth down run was incredible.
  
• Clint Session.  If he doesn't go to the Pro Bowl, it'll be a crime.
• Pat McAfee.  He is KILLING the kickoffs.  There is zero mystery how the Colts have improved their kick coverage.  They got a guy who routinely puts it deep in the endzone. 
  
• Robert Mathis.  All he does is make huge play after huge play.  He picked up another sack despite Freeney being out.  He stands on his own.
• Chad Simpson's hard running at the end of the game.  He doesn't get many carries, but he makes the most of them.
• Tamme's heady play to bat the onside kick out of bounds.  He did a great job understanding the rules.

Reasons to Frown:

• The O-line was a mess at times.  Two sacks and a 'hit as he throws pick' were ugly.  Two of the Colts' first three drives ended due to bad line play.
• The first half defense.  Seriously, 3 third downs?  Awful.  It reminded me of the infamous Jacksonville game.  The Texans moved the ball at will. It was the worst half of football from a Colts defense in a long time. 
  
• Matt Stover missing the short field goal.  How incredible is it that this didn't cost the Colts?  It felt like one of those, "We just have too many guys hurt" moments. 
  
• Chad Simpson returning kicks.  Wow.  Not good.  TJ Rushing fielding a punt at the five.  Not good either.  I see no evidence our special teams play is actually better.  I just think Indy got a better kicker.  If this was about coaching, wouldn't we see something happen in the return game?  All I see are mistakes.
• Don Brown.  Why was he not in at the end of the game?  He seemed to be running well.  Did he get hurt?  Also, he showed why he hasn't gotten more game time with that miserable job helping CJ on Mario Williams.  You have to block to play, son.
• Phil Wheeler's first half.  He made some nice plays in the second half, but looked lost in the first.  This might have been part of what Coyer corrected.  I'll have to check the tape.
• The lack of pressure in the first half without Freeney was scary.  Fortunately, the blitzes landed a little better later in the game, but we need 93 to get healthy.  He was also missed on the Texans' final drive.
  

Best Call:

Going for it on fourth and inches.  This was the call I've been waiting for all season.  Wonderful.  Stover's miss meant it didn't lead to points, but it's just what you have to do in the NFL.  Great job, Coach.

Worst Call:

It's a nit picky tie.  First, why didn't Caldwell challenge the horrid spot on that very same fourth down?  It looked like Clark had it easy, but that was a terrible spot.  It looked like it would have been an easy challenge.  Secondly, I hated the play call (run wide) on fourth down.  Addai made it happen, but it took a spectacular play by him.  Whatever.  I'm just glad he went for it.

Reasons I'm Flying:

• An AFC South Championship.
  
• The Colts can clinch the #1 seed by going just 3-2 over their final five games.  With three home games, and not a single world beater on the board, there's every reason to assume this is going to happen.
• 15-1 verses the Texans all time.
• Yet another miracle comeback.  I get the feeling this team just expects to win these kinds of games.  That's a good place to be.
• This team can still get better.  In no way does it feel like they are peaking yet.
• Manning made some throws that make me feel like his arm is fine. The rifle shot to Garcon was incredible.

Reasons I'm Dying:

• I've seen life without Dwight Freeney.  I don't like it.
• The defense was so horrid for a half, I was terrified it might never recover.  Unlike the NE game where it seemed like the scheme was wrong, this looked like players were just overmatched and out played.  It was much  more unsettling than even the 24 points allowed to New England.  They looked like they were never going to figure out how to slow the Texans.
  
• The Chargers are playing very well.  We really need NE/SD to finish 2 and 3.  I don't want to play both of them.

The Bottom Line:

The Texans folded.  Yes, the Colts were poised and took advantage of the opportunity, but I've never seen a team just stone cold collapse like Houston came up with today.  From Schaub's first pick on, they played like they expected the Colts to beat them.  It was a gutless effort from the Texans and surely has to signal the end of Gary Kubiak era in Houston.  I'm proud of my team, but they got a lot of help today.  The Texans made stupid turnovers and stupid penalties down the stretch.  They are a talented team, but simply don't have the will to win.

The Colts on the other hand refuse to beat themselves.  Once again, coming down the stretch, they were the calm, collected team, and they let the Texans play themselves right out of the game.

11-0.  Perfect.

There are still 8 games left (hopefully) in the season.  That is a long way to go.  The next three games are likely against equally desperate teams, right now the Colts shouldn't worry about anything except playing their best football.  That's something the NFL hasn't seen yet this year.

Be afraid, AFC.  Be very afraid.