To hear some talk about it, the Indianapolis Colts have been underachievers going on a decade now.

Seven 12 win seasons! Nine playoff appearances!  Just one Super Bowl!  They are the Atlanta Braves!

Now, I've never been sure exactly why calling a team "the Atlanta Braves" is an insult, but beyond that there's a major problem with that kind of analysis of the Colts.

They've rarely been as good as their record indicates.

For you long-time readers well versed in the concept of Pythagorean wins, skip ahead.  For you newcomers, there exists well established evidence that contrary to what Bill Parcels thinks, you aren't what you are.  It's been shown that because there is so much 'luck' in any given football game, that team records don't always reflect how well a given team has played.  Over time, a mathematical formula based simply on Points Scored and Points Allowed gives us a truer predictive measure of a team's quality than just using wins and losses.  An example:

The 2009 Jaguars are 7-5 and in the Wildcard picture.  Everyone who watches them realizes they aren't very good.  They have 6 of their 7 wins by less than a touchdown, and those all came over some of the worst teams in the league.  So, should we treat the Jags the same as the Patriots?  Both have 7-5 records.  They are what they are, right?  The big difference is that the Jags have been OUTSCORED on the season by 48 points and the Pats have outscored their opponents by 104 points.  Even taking into account that the Jags got blown out by Seattle and the Pats scored a 59-0 win, we can still see that on the whole, the Pats are better team than the Jags, and should naturally expect more from them.  "Pythagorean Wins" say that for predictive purposes, we should treat the Jags like a 5-7 team and the Pats like an 8-4 or 9-3 team.  The Jags have been a bit "lucky", the Pats a bit "unlucky".  Obviously, a blowout win or loss will skew the numbers early, but over time those tend to even out.  This is a well proven theory, so if it rankles, you I'm sorry.  It's football fact at this point.

So what does this have to do with the Colts?  For a decade now Indy has been one of the most consistent "over performers" in the regular season.  The Colts consistently win more games than they should (we'll talk about reasons for that shortly).  Take a look at this chart, bearing in mind that the first three seasons were "Mora Years":

What can we learn from this chart?

1.  The Colts have been 'overrated' every single year this decade, except for the one year they missed the playoffs.  In no given year has Indy actually been 'as good' as their record would indicate.  Again, I'll try to answer the 'why' question in a moment.

2.  4 times, the Colts lost games to "inferior opponents" (1999, 2002, 2005, 2007).  Four times they lost to superior opponents, and when they won the Super Bowl, they did so beating three consecutive 'better' teams. The Colts played four teams that were actually better than their records indicated (2000, 2005, 2007, 2008).

3.  Of the games where they lost to "inferior opponents", the Pythagorean numbers show the teams were much more evenly matched than the records appeared.  In 2002, the Colts were basically a 9-7 team playing at an "8.4 win" team.  In 2005, instead of a 14 win team hosting an 11 win team, the Colts/Steelers game should have been seen like a "12.4 win team hosting an 11.6 win team".  In 2007, the Colts and Chargers were separated by three wins in the standings, but by only one Pythagorean win.  In other words, people thought the Colts were better than they should have.

4.  The most interesting game was last year's playoff game with the Chargers.  Indy was a 12 win team playing an 8 win team.  Anyone paying attention, however, would have seen that the matchup was dead even with both teams being 10.2 win teams.  In the end, it was decided by a coin flip in overtime.

Why do the Colts break the system?

Luck is supposed to even out.  No team is supposed to get 'lucky' every single year, but the Colts do.  Every year the Colts win more games than they "should".  Why?

1.  The Colts never lose a "trap game" or have a "let down game".    The last time the Colts lost a true 'trap game' (a game against a weaker team sandwiched between two better teams) was probably 2003 when they dropped a 28-23 game at 1-7 Jacksonville.  The Colts win every game they are supposed to win.  They are highly disciplined and don't make mistakes.  In other words, they make their own luck.  We've seen that all season.  "The Colts' way" forces opponents to beat themselves.  In the regular season against lesser teams, that is a massive advantage.  Against good teams in the playoffs the effect is lessened and the games come down to over all talent and the bounce of the ball.  More often than not, the Colts haven't been the more talented club in the playoffs.

2.  They sometimes let up in the 16th week.  Taking on a more lopsided loss than normal can affect a team's overall ranking.

3.  The Colts don't run up the score. You rarely see the Colts adding on garbage points, which helps to suppress their over all quality numerically.

4.  Indy has Peyton Manning.  He has this habit of helping his team win games they shouldn't probably win.  It's a thing he does.  Maybe you've noticed?

What does this mean for 2009?

The good news:  Indy leads the AFC in Pythagorean wins.  They are second in the NFL to the Saints with an overall positive differential of +130 points.  The next closest AFC team is the Pats at +104, but we know they racked up 59 of those in just one game.  The Colts are the best team in the conference.

The bad news:  The Colts may not be as good as their record.  Pythag says Indy is really a 9.2-2.8 win team (call it 9-3 for fun).  San Diego and the Pats? They are 8.3 and 8.5 win teams.  In other words, the gap between the Colts and the rest of the conference isn't as big as it looks when reading the tables.  The numbers don't indicate that the 2009 Colts are among the best teams ever.

The best news:  We already know that the Colts have won some games they probably shouldn't have this year, or perhaps more accurately stated:  they didn't lose some games they could have.  What we've seen in the last few games from the running game and from Garcon means that the Colts are actually better now than they have been at any point this season.  All this plays into the reasons why all season we've been hammering home that the Horse had to get BETTER in order to win it all.  Sure, they were 6-0 or 7-0, but there were pretty obvious flaws that were bound to be exploited in the playoffs.  Now, the Colts are close to being a complete team, as long as they can keep this up and get Mathis and Freeney 100% at the same time, the Colts ironically may turn out to be exactly as good as their record indicates.

In the end, the important thing is to maintain perspective. Never just look at wins and losses and assume you know which team is better than another team.  I suppose we should be thankful that the NFL settles things on the field, instead of forcing us to parse through all this data so that we can guess who the two best teams are so they can play for some trumped up champion.

If the 2009 Colts are the best team in the NFL, they get the chance to prove it.  Just don't be surprised if the road ends up being a lot harder than you expect.

It's time.

We've fully dealt with the Titans game.  The hangover from the big win yesterday is wearing off (see, you can't avoid it.  I'm going to sneak that Hangover link in there on you someway or another.  There are some really good stats in there from the Colts' game this week).

Today's annoucement that the Colts clinch the #1 seed with a simple win over Denver means we can start to talk about what happens next.

We're finally going to start dealing with the thorny issues of rest vs. no rest and the quest for perfection.  Most of what I've read on this issue has been patently insane, misinformed, and just plain wrong.  There are several issues that are all getting wrapped up into one.  Let's try to make some sense of this mess by looking at each one separately.

1.  Should the Colts publicly embrace the pursuit of 16-0 by a decree from Caldwell to the media?

No.  Are you insane?  What possible good would that serve?

Look, we'll deal with how the Colts should handle the chance to go for 16-0 in a moment, but let's start with this awful notion that they should make some grand announcement that it's a goal. To do so would violate so many different bedrock beliefs of the team, it's laughable.

• We play one week at a time. Oh, but now we are publicly stating that we are trying to win the next four weeks in a row now.  Why?  I don't know.  The media wants a story.
• We don't care about the media.  Oh, I mean unless they really pay a lot of attention to us and call us mean names.  Then we care.
• Never give your opponent any material.  Oh, but since we are 12-0 we should piss off the Broncos by saying we are now going to beat the Bills in week 17.  It always pays to disrespect your next opponent by talking about up coming games.  That's exactly what helped us win 21 games in a row!
• Stay focused on your goals.  Unless another interesting goal comes along before you've actually secured your original goals.  It makes a ton of sense to stop thinking about getting the #1 and start thinking about 16-0 now!
• Keep outside distractions to a minimum. Nah, let's start talking about something that will just up the media frenzy to a whole new level.  That would be so smart!

Right now, the media is ignoring the Colts (relatively speaking, of course) because they expect Indy to give up the ghost.  GREAT!  That's less insanity. The coaches are more sure the players are focused on them and them only.

Let's be clear:  the Colts should say NOTHING about 16-0 until they have to. They have a game against an 8-4 team this week. Then they play on the road, on Thursday night against a 7-5 team. Then they play a 6-6 team. What kind of insane coach would talk about 16-0 now?

Until you are 15-0, you don't discuss 16-0.

2.  Has resting players in the final week hurt the Colts in the playoffs before?

NO. NO. NO.  A thousand times no.

The most common theme I've seen is, "The Colts have struggled in the playoffs.  The Colts rest players.  Therefore the Colts should not rest players".

There's just one problem:  The Colts haven't rested players that many times.

I wrote on this last year, but let's cover it again:

1999 Colts play starters in an ultimately meaningless game in Buffalo (WHOOOOA KARMA ALERT!).  Cornelius Bennett gets hurt.  Colts lose their first playoff game.

2000 Colts can't rest.  Colts lose in round one.  The loss has NOTHING to do with resting players.

2002 Colts can't rest.  Colts lose in round one.  The loss has NOTHING to do with resting players.

2003 Colts can't rest.  Colts blow out Denver in round 1.

2004 Colts REST STARTERS.  Colts blow out Denver in round 1.  Seeing as how the week 16 opponent was...Denver, I'd say rest was the right strategy there.

2005 Colts rest 10 starters verses the Chargers in week 14 and lose.  They then barely play the starting offense at all for two weeks, and then Tony has his family tragedy.  Then they have to play a really good Pittsburgh team and lose thanks to a miracle tackle and a shanked field goal.  I can buy the idea that resting the offense for two weeks before a bye contributed to the slow start.  Of course, that slow start might have had a little to do with the O-line not having any idea how to protect the QB, but whatever.  I think this game has more to do with the off the field events, but for the sake of argument, I'll allow that two weeks off was way too much down time.  File that away.

2006 Colts can't rest.  Colts win Super Bowl.  Note that two other times they couldn't rest and they didn't win the Super Bowl, so don't go all crazy about the one time they did.  It's the team, not the circumstances.

2007 Colts rest starters for three quarters.  Colts lose to San Diego.  Please, the next time anyone brings up 2007 in this discussion, you have my permission to smack them in the head and call them a moron.  First, the 2007 Colts were WRACKED with injuries come the last game.  They needed the rest.  Robert Mathis managed to come back for the playoff game, but wasn't himself.  The Colts offense?  It started out on fire in this game. First drive: TD.  The defense then picked off Rivers.  The Colts were driving for a second score when Harrison fumbled.  Now, you can say the Colts screwed up by bringing Marv back. I won't argue.  He needed game reps and clearly wasn't ready to play and hurt the team that day.  Resting the last week of the season didn't stop Indy from getting pressure on Rivers.  Resting the last week of the season didn't make the defense fall apart to Billy Volek.  It didn't make Tony Ugoh melt down in the fourth quarter against Merriman.  It didn't make Dallas Clark drop the final pass which hit him in his heavily wrapped hand.  People can say what they want about 2005, but there is NO EVIDENCE that rest had anything to do AT ALL with this loss.

If someone brings up 2007, ask them one simple question:  "Exactly how were the Colts hurt by resting in that game?  Did they start slow?  Did they not have the lead in fourth quarter?  What aspect of the game would have been different if they had played starters against the Titans two weeks earlier?"

2008 Colts rest some players for 3 quarters to a half.  They then have to travel cross country and play 6 days later in San Diego where they ultimately lose in overtime because the defense just finally wears down.  Again, Indy had the lead in the fourth quarter, but couldn't pick up two yards when they had to because Gijon Robinson forgot a snap count.  This same Gijon Robinson did play plenty in the previous game.  So again, tell me how playing everyone with a big lead over the Titans would have turned this game?

Most everyone bases the entire "rest hurts" argument on 2005 and 2007.  2005 is arguable.  2007 is utterly irrelevant.  Oh, and there's 2004, but no one ever wants to bring that up.

3.  So, should the Colts rest players?

Yes, they should rest players.

It's only a question of how much.

I think it was a mistake to shut things down so early in 2005.  I don't think that's why they lost, but it didn't seem necessary.  People forget that several defensive starters sat against the Chargers (Brackett for one, I think).  That was basically three weeks off plus the bye week.  A month without a game is just too long.  Taking one week off is no big deal.  Taking four...that could be another story.

The tough part of the equation is deciding what to do with the Jacksonville game.  It's a short week.  It's a meaningless game, but you can't shut it down.  It would be a full month before the Colts play again.  I think you have to judicious against the Jags, but play full tilt through the Jets game at least.  There's rest and there's rust.  I don't think rust sets in by taking part of one game off.  It could if you don't play for a month.  Indy needs to be playing starters at least three quarters through the 15th game.  The 16th game...that's another story.

Week 17 is an outdoor game on January 2nd in Buffalo.  That could be a dangerous environment to try and play.  Cold, ice, wind, ect.  The last time they tried that, it cost them a starting linebacker.  I'm not willing to sacrifice Gary Brackett on the altar of momentum.  Letting guys take some rest in that last game only seems sane.  Dwight Freeney is banged up.  Robert Mathis was in street clothes at the end of Sunday's game. Kelvin Hayden has been battling injuries all year.  We can't win the Super Bowl if those guys aren't playing.  Rest only makes sense.

Ah, but having said that...

4.  What if the Colts are 15-0 in three weeks? Should they still rest players?

No.

Here's why:  a streak is not like other things in sports.  When on a streak, you don't talk about it.  You don't plan for it.  You just ride it out.  I'm on the record as saying the Colts need to play straight up through their 15th game no matter what.  Obviously, you don't risk questionable players, but as much as possible, you keep your foot on the gas. And if everything goes just right and all it takes is one more win to go undefeated...

You have to go for it.

An undefeated Colts team would be known as the Greatest Team of All Time.  I know the '72 Dolphins aren't, but the Colts aren't the '72 Dolphins.  This is the team with a massive win streak.  This is the team that has the most wins in a decade.  This team has Peyton Manning at QB.  This team would be utterly and forever immortalized as the greatest team of all time. Manning would cement his status as the greatest QB ever.  The Colts as a franchise love history.  They won't be able to turn their backs on it.

Given the choice between two more Super Bowls or one 19-0 perfect season...I'd take the one perfect season.  It's that big a deal.

As foolish as it is for the Colts to address the issue now, it's just as foolish to turn your back on history.  You can't live life terrified something will go wrong.  If there is nothing to gain, you rest players against the Bills, but 16-0 doesn't qualify as "nothing".  It is most definitely something.

The 2007 Pats helped everyone.  There is no longer so much 'weight' to being 16-0 heading into the playoffs.  No one will just assume you are going to win.  I think they forever took the edge off for any team that comes after them.

If the Colts are 15-0...

If the Colts are healthy...

If there is no freak blizzard or -10 F temperature in Buffalo on January 2...

Then hell, yes.  Let's go undefeated.

The Greatest Team Ever.

It has a nice ring to it.

Let's make history.

Indy was the better football team on Sunday.  Sometimes, it's just that simple...

Reasons to Smile:

• Pierre Garcon-Uh, wow.  In his last three games he has 17 catches for 307 yards. He was a monster in the first quarter on Sunday.  He has turned the corner right before our eyes.  It's like that TD he scored against the Pats baptized him in victory, and he hasn't been the same since.  Let's imagine that Gonzo could play right now.  How does he get on the field?  At 100%, I don't doubt he'd be better than Collie, but I don't see how he can be anything more than a fourth WR for this team this year.  Garcon is simply playing too well to take off the field.  He's in the process of making the kind of jump you usually see guys make in the offseason.  He's a real threat on every play, and I think you'll see the O open up from here on out. 
  
• Clint Session.  He just continues to pound people.  Outstanding play to force a fumble today.
• The run game is absolutely credible.  It's not flashy, but teams have to respect it.  That's all you need.
• Taking over with 10 minutes and change and handing the ball back with 7 minutes and two timeouts wiped off the clock in the fourth quarter.  Oh, and a FG.
• Taking over with :20 in the half and getting three points
• Reggie Wayne doesn't get down.  He just bides his time and makes huge plays when it counts.
• Just 5 penalties for 40 yards.  One of those was utter nonsense (the Lacey interference).
• The Titans played our WRs physical and the Colts still posted 27 points.
• Great, active play by the defensive line.  They did a great job containing both Young and Johnson.
• Ugoh did a credible job filling in.  He did not play great by any means and made some mistakes, but if you think of him as a back up LT and realize that he allowed no sacks, and the Colts ran the ball well, then it was a plus.  Watching him, CJ, and Diem makes me realize that the Colts are going to have to draft some more tackles this year.
• Jacoby Lacey as the nickle back. Hayden's return makes this team that much better.

Reasons to Frown:

• Ron Winter's gang of clowns.  Totally inconsistent job of calling penalties.  They let both sides be rough, but then flagged Lacey for nothing.  They need a clinic on how to spot the ball.  The first Titans first down was spotted a full half yard ahead of where the runner landed.  Awful job today.
• Field that kick, Clark.
• Powers getting beat by Washington.  I thought they threw at him a lot more today because Hayden was back.  He was stone cold beat, and is lucky Washington flubbed the play.
• 50 yard field goals are about 60% propositions in the NFL.  What are our chances of hitting one this year?  10%?  It's a major weakness. It might be the only one this team has anymore.

Best Call:

Sending pressure on Young all day.  I'm normally conservative when it comes to blitzing, but it's clear that Young still panics when under pressure.  He seemed to have a hard time standing in the pocket and making throws when guys were running at him.  He airmailed some balls he didn't have to.  I thought Young played pretty well, and he has a cannon, but he wasn't ready for the Indy blitz.

Worst Call:

Punting on fourth and 2 from the 46. I realize that it worked out as Young threw a pick to Lacey, but after just recovering a fumble at roughly that same spot, why not go for it?  If you don't make it, you haven't lost anything. If you do make it, you have the chance to bury a division rival.  I'll never be ok with punting there.

Reasons I'm Flying:

• Freeney got another sack.  That's a good sign.
• This team feels like it's just now starting to gel.  The 2009 Colts will be scary good when they hit their stride.
• The Colts are one win from a bye.  It's almost playoff time.
• Brett Favre is throwing picks like candy tonight.  Unless he brings the Vikes back, it's a two man MVP race.  First to 16 wins.

Reasons I'm Dying:

• Mathis in street clothes
• CJ not playing left the Colts with just two tackles.  That can't be a good thing.
• The Jags will be hyped up for the Thursday night game.  Their schedule just keeps being too easy for them to go away, no matter how bad they are.
• The kicking situation.  If our season comes down to a 48+ yard FG...I can't think about it.
• New England and San Diego back to back.  I know the Pats are in free fall and can't win on the road, but still.

The Bottom Line:

No mistakes.  No turnovers.  No excuses.  No losses.

The Colts are a more mature, more complete, more talented team than the Titans.

They won.

They should have.

PREGAME:

CJ is out.  Freeney is active.  So Ugoh and Diem are the only tackles on the Colts roster to my knowledge today.  Yikes.  Hope no one gets hurt.  By the way, make sure to check out the article in the Links about the NFL ending revenue sharing.

FIRST QUARTER:

• Indy opens the game with the ball at the 25 after a return by Simpson.  Things get off to a rip-roaring start as Collie tips a ball that Garcon hauls in for 27 yards.  On third and 6, Manning hits Frenchy for 36 yards inside the 10.  Addai converts it immediately with a spinning TD run for 8 yards.  7-0 Colts in 5 plays and 75 yards.  BAM.  1:58.  Incredible.
• The Titans first drive is extended after a HORRIBLE spot on third down gives the Titans an undeserved first down.  It looked like the official gave Chris Johnson a half yard more than he actually got.  It looked like Caldwell should have challenged the spot. The Colts didn't force another third down until the Titans had driven down to the two yard line.  Young threw wildly on third down, and the Titans settle for a field goal as Young limps off the field, 7-3 Colts.
• Hey! It's a "big" return for Simpson.  The Colts start their second drive at the 35, but go three and out as the Titans played the Colts physical.  It looked like there was clearly a missed PI call on third down.  Ah, Mike Winters.  Your crew is just stellar, as usual.
• The Titans help out the Colts by dropping a sure TD pass, and after driving out near midfield, Freeney got home on third down and brought down Young to force a Titans punt.  Huge play by 93.  The Colts will start at the 23.
  
• Diem starts the drive with a false start, but Manning shrugs it off by dropping a perfect pass in on Frenchy who makes an incredible catch after absorbing contact.  99 yards receiving already for Garcon.  Addai gets horse collared for a 15 yard penalty moving the ball into scoring range at the Titans 33 as the quarter ends.  The first quarter was a successful one for the Colts.  A TD here would really put pressure on the Titans to match them score for score.

SECOND QUARTER:

• Manning completes a clutch pass to Clark on third and 12 for a first down near the 20.  Again at the 10, he hits Joe for a spinning, diving first down at the 1.  Joe plows home for his second score.  He has played an incredible game already today.  14-3 Colts.
• The Titans immediately attack as Young hits a big 25 gain to Britt.  Say what you will, his deep ball accuracy has been excellent all day.  Then Session comes up large forcing a fumble by Hall after a short screen.  Foster recovers and Indy starts with the ball at midfield.  Another TD would go a long way to changing the way the Titans have to play this game.
• GUTLESS! The Colts can't pick up the first down on third and two as Clark drops a pass, and Caldwell punts from the Titans 46.  Horrible decision.
• Johnson picks up four yards on third and three to help get the Titans across the 20.  Young then makes a good throw on the next third and 6 for a first down. After blanketing the Titans WRs, the Colts forced yet another third down.  They blitz Young, and Freeney forces him out of the pocket.  Lacey jumps the route for a pick and the Colts get the ball at roughly the spot they punt from.  It worked out for Caldwell again.  I still don't like it.
• Addai continues his strong running, but Ron Winter's crew has apparently forgotten how to spot the ball.  They short Joe by a few inches, forcing a third and short.  Joe doesn't seem to mind though and pounds the ball down to the 30.  Hart and Garcon got the ball inside the five, but Diem and Ugoh false start to move the ball back.  Manning pays it no nevermind, however, drilling Collie for a huge TD to go up 21-3.  This was a huge score because the Titans have the "two for none" with the last possession of the first half and the first of the second half.  The defense needs to stay strong, or this will be a game again real quick.
• Massive fail by the defense.  After an initial stop causes the coaching staff to call a very aggressive timeout (hoping to force a punt with time left to score), the Titans rip right through the D as Young fires bullets all over the field, eventually getting a TD with :21 to play to cut the score to 21-10.  The Titans start the second half with the ball, and this could be a game before the Colts ever see the ball. I'm all for aggression, but why call that timeout on defense if you aren't willing to go for fourth and short on offense?    I don't like the mixed messages.
• Maybe I spoke too soon.  The Titans squib the punt, and Manning makes them pay.  First he hits Garcon all the way down to the Titans 45.  Then after an incomplete pass, Kyle DeVan baits Brown of the Titans into an unsportsmanlike conduct penalty.  The 15 yards moves the ball inside the 30.  Addai plows down to the 25, setting up a 42 yard field goal try.  Stover drills the kick, and Indy leads 24-10 at half time.  Incredible.  Manning (and DeVan) just cut the heart right out of the Titans.  Spectacular drive.

HALF TIME:

As the game starts to get chippy, the Colts are firmly in control.  The game is by no means in the bag, but VY will be under a lot of pressure in the second half.  The Colts offense has barely been slowed by the Titans, as Manning has posted a rating of 101 and 176 yards and the run game has been active and effective all day as Addai already has 44 yards rushing.  Ironically, the timeout Caldwell called that allowed the Titans to get into the endzone (instead of a field goal), gave Indy the time needed for a field goal.  I suppose that's a net loss of one point.  No big deal.

THIRD QUARTER:

• Fine job by the D.  Chris Johnson gets some yards, but when VY is forced to pass, the Colts do an excellent job getting pressure on Young and the Titans have to punt. The Indy offense will be looking to score again, but also drain some clock.  We should see a lot of Hart and Simpson before this over.
• The Colts mount a productive, but ultimately frustrating drive.  They got inside Titans territory, but a holding call on Reggie Wayne and a blown up screen put the Colts in a 3rd and 25 hold.  Manning got much of it back, setting up a 52 yard FG try on 4th and 11 by Stover who yanked the kick. It was a tough position to be in, and now the Titans have great field position.
• Ron Winter's boys strike again.  The Colts looked like they had the Titans stopped, but Jacob Lacey picked up a very weak PI call on third and three to keep the drive alive.  The Colts are clearly missing Robert Mathis in the pass rush, as the Titans moved the ball down to the one.   Then they imploded.  A timeout, a fumbled snap, a holding penalty, and a completed passs out of bounds and the Colts fend off yet another first and goal from the one.  In the end, that drive cost the Titans more than 6 minutes of game time and a timeout and they got nothing. 
  
• The Colts take over at the two, and Addai BARELY gets the ball out of the endzone on first down.  Manning throws incomplete on second down, setting up third and 11 on the one.  On third and long, Manning barely avoids the sack, and hits Wayne near the first down marker.  He gets (another) horrible spot however, and Indy will have to punt as the quarter ends.  Ultimately, you have to consider the third quarter a 'win' for the Colts.  The score stands exactly as it did at the end of the first half, and when you have a 14 point lead, that's a good thing.  The Titans will get the ball back in great field position, so the D needs another good stand here.

FOURTH QUARTER:

• The Titans take over at the Colts 40.  Holding them to a field goal would be a major accomplishment for the defense.  The Colts almost came up with that stop, but sloppy tackling on Kenny Britt on third down gave the Titans the first.  Again, the D rises up, however, stopping the Titans with a jail house blitz (that does not come CLOSE to landing) that oddly rattles Young who tosses the ball wildly on fourth down.  The Colts take over having wasted 4 more minutes of game time.  Incredible performance by the D.  This game is perfectly illustrating the good and bad of Vince Young.
• The Colts go on an excellent "play from ahead" drive, as Manning completes key third downs to Addai and two more to Wayne and the Colts methodically kill the Titans dreams of victory.  Indy burns more than 7 minutes of game clock, both remaining Titans' timeouts and put 3 points on the board (making it a three score game). That is how you win playoff games, people.  Killing the clock with a lead.  Tremendous game for the Colts on all fronts.
• No sooner do I congratulate the team, than Kenny Britt rips off a 55 yard return to give the Titans the faintest of heart beats.  Young eventually hits Scaife for the third longest TD against the Colts all year (18 yards).  The Colts still manage to force them to use half the remaining clock to do it.  All Indy has to do is recover the onside kick and the game is over.
• Nope.  Clark muffs the onside kick, the ball squirts loose and the Titans get the ball back.  How big was that last field goal by Stover? 
  
• No harm.  Four plays, lots of pressure, and Young just flings the ball wildly every time.  Great win.  Dominant performance.
  

The Colts have nearly locked up the one seed, so now's the time to remind you all about our dream order for finish for the AFC:

This would force the Pats to play Pitt, and @SD.  It would force the Chargers to play the Pats.  Obviously, you could flip the Pats and Chargers and it would be nearly as good.  It would likely give Indy a second round game with the Bengals or Broncos.  Most importantly, it means Indy likely would only have to face one of the Steelers/Pats/Chargers combo.

EASY CALLS:

Ravens at Packers

I don't think the Ravens are that great a team, but I'd just as soon have them out of the playoffs

Oakland at Pittsburgh

TOUGH CALLS:

Texans at Jaguars

This game likely won't matter, but I'd rather the Jags lose their next two games so as to not have any real hope when Indy comes to town in a couple of weeks.

Patriots at Dolphins

It's distasteful, but I think we have to pull for the Pats to finish 12-4.  I'd much rather them wind up in the two or three seed than in the four.  That means they have to win out.  I'll hate myself just a little, but here's hoping they pull it out.

Broncos at Chiefs

As a general rule, I'm rooting against all playoff contenders (Broncos, Jags, Steelers, and Ravens).  The Broncos will be equally desperate next week regardless of what happens today, so I'd rather they lose.

In this final installment, we'll compare the 2008 Colts to the 2009 edition by looking at special teams and coaching.

SPECIAL TEAMS:

Place Kicking:  If there is one area the 2009 Colts are dramatically weaker in this year, it's in the area of place kicking.  Vinatieri has battled the effects of off season hip surgery since training camp, and is still not active.  Matt Stover has taken over and performed adequately.  The numbers seem to show some improvement, but they are a bit misleading.  The 2008 Colts hit 80% of their FGs and had a DVOA of -2.9%.  The 2009 Colts have hit 81.3% and have a DVOA of -1.6%.  I still say the Colts were better off last year.  This season, Indy has hit zero FGs of 50 yards or more, whereas they hit two in 2008 (including a game winner over the Pats).  Vinatieri also nailed a game winner against San Diego.  Stover simply doesn't have that kind of range any more, and I have little confidence in him.  The numbers say the Colts are touch improved, but the naked eye says they are worse.  If there is one giant achilles heel on this team, it's the place kicking.  We've had too many seasons undone by a crappy kicker (2000, 2004, 2005).  One more could kill me.

Kickoff Coverage:  The 2008 Colts dramatically improved their kick coverage, but the 2009 have taken it to a new level with Pat McAfee handling the duties this year. DVOA says the Colts went from a solid 2.4% to a stunning 12.4% (second in the NFL this year).  McAfee already has more touchbacks (14) this season than AV did all of last year (8).  He has revolutionized the Colts coverage game as he booms the kicks high and deep.  As much as fans loved to complain about the coaching of the coverage units, the real problem was the lack of distance and hang time on the kicks.  Indy has improved dramatically in this respect.

Kickoff Returns:  Yuck.  Chad "the Human Touchback" Simpson continues to do a good job of not fumbling each week.  Unfortunately, little else is going right in the return game.  I suppose it's still technically an improvement over 2008 when the Colts posted a DVOA of -9.0% (29th in NFL).  This year, they are up to -6.5%.  Simpson is averaging 21.3 yards a return this season, which is down from last year when he and Frenchy took turns and posted similarly mediocre averages of 22.9 and 21.6 yards a return respectively.  Honestly, there has been no real change in this department this season.

Punt Returns:  Copy and paste.  There's been a DVOA improvement (-10.2% to -4.9% this year), but the effect hasn't been noticeable.  Ratliff averaged 5.6 YPR last year, and Rushing has done most of the work this season and stands at 5.7 YPR.  It's basically been a rerun.

Punting: One of the big questions this offseason was how rookie Pat McAfee would do replacing long time Colt Hunter Smith.  The answer is:  pretty well. DVOA loved Smith's ability to pin teams deep and rewarded the 2008 Colts with a rating of 9.0%.  That number has fallen off this year with McAfee scoring a still positive 1.3%. More traditional numbers help McAfee a little as he averages 44.7 yards per punt compared with Smith's 44.2 yards.  Smith had a net of 38.8 Yards per punt with 23 inside the 20 with only two touchbacks and 11 fair catches.  McAfee's net is down a little (37.7), with 14 inside the 20, 3 TBs, and 10 fair catches.  In other words, he hasn't quite mastered Smith's ability to kill the ball deep, but has done a good job forcing fair catches.  In all, there's a slight drop off from Smith to McAfee when punting from the 50 in, but McAfee more than makes up for it with his kickoff work.

Summary:  DVOA likes the 2009 Colts a little more than the 2008 version (0.2% up from -1.9%).  That means Indy has gone from slightly below average to average.  They are a little worse in two phases (kicking and punting), the same in returns, and dramatically improved in kickoff coverage.  If Vinatieri comes back healthy and can hit some 50 yard field goals, that will go a long way to helping my confidence in the 2009 Special Teams.

COACHING:

2008 was one of the finest coaching jobs I've ever seen as Dungy took a rattled, beat up team and gave them hope and kept them focuses and afloat long enough for things to start going right.  The 2008 Colts battled a massive wave of injuries and made the playoffs posting a series of tough comeback wins.

The 2009 Colts have battled a wave of injuries losing Sanders, Jackson, Gonzo, and Vinatieri for most of the year.  Jim Caldwell and company have kept the Colts focused and prepared.  They've shown no let down after big wins.  They battled tough scheduling problems (back to back road night games in 6 days).  They've beaten the dregs.  They've handled the 'BIG GAME' against the Pats.  They never panic and can't be counted out until the clock hits zero.  The offense has shown new wrinkles as has the defense. Caldwell has consistently shown a willingness to go for it on fourth down, as evidenced by his bold attempt in Indy territory this past Sunday.  His team is locked in, focused and motivated.

Most importantly, the Colts have thrived with rookies in key positions.  Austin Collie.  Jerraud Powers. Jacob Lacey.  Pat McAfee.  Donald Brown.  If this coaching staff wasn't competent, it would show.  There are too many young players playing too well to just chalk all the wins up to Manning doing his thing.  The Colts coaches have done a great job putting the young men in positions where they can have success, and the rewards have been evident.

There is only one number you can use to truly see how a coaching staff is performing.  This year, that number is 11-0.

2008 was one of the great coaching performances ever in Indianapolis.  2009 has been just as good.

OVERALL SUMMARY:

My gut told me the 2009 Colts had improved.

The good news is that they have.

They pass better.  They run better. They stop the pass better.  They stop the run better. Their special teams are a little improved.  The coaching has been flawless.

This team is simply better than the over-achievers of 2008.  The biggest potential weakness is in the kicking game.  We'll just have to hope and pray that AV comes back ready to hit more playoff winning kicks.

The draw for the 2010 World Cup took place today in South Africa.

The Yanks took a manageable draw getting paired up with England, Algeria and Slovenia.

The team I actually care about fared even better as Argentina got South Korea, Nigeria and Greece.  The Argentine press is ecstatic.  Considering how badly the Argentine team struggled recently, getting a reasonably cushy draw is a major relief.

The Group of Death is clearly Group A which pits the hosts South Africa with Mexico, France, and Uruguay.

189 more days.

I can't wait...

Yesterday, we examined the offense to see how it has improved over 2008, today we'll look at the defense.  It's harder to gauge each specific position on the defense because there simply aren't a lot of reliable statistics to go by.  Instead of looking position by position, I'm going to use a variety of key indicators and hope that sheds light on where and how the Colts have improved.

Points Allowed:

The 2008 Colts allowed 18.6 PPG, the 2009 Colts have allowed 16.8.  A drop of two points a game would certainly seem to indicate an overall improvement from the defense, especially because the 2008 Colts were bolstered by a year end shut out of the Titans who had 'shut it down'.

DVOA:

The 2008 Colts had an overall DVOA of 0.1% .  They were the definition of an average NFL defense.  They were 1.2% against the pass and -1.0% against the run. Perfectly average. The 2009 Colts have improved across the board and currently have a DVOA of -4.8%.  They have improved against both the run and the pass (-5.4% and -4.0%).

Turnovers:

The 2008 Colts picked off 15 passes and forced 22 fumbles, recovering 11.  The 2009 Colts have picked off 13 passes, forced 12 fumbles and have recovered 8.  Projected over 16 games, that's 19 picks and 17.5 forced fumbles. Assuming the Colts' recovery rate returns to normal on fumbles (50%), Indy is looking at roughly 29 turnovers forced.  That's a very modest increase from 2008 (more picks, fewer fumbles).

Defensive Passer Rating:

The 2008 held opposing passers to a 78.0 passer rating, allowing a record 6 TD passes verses 15 picks.  The 2009 Colts have allowed a few more TD passes (9 already), but have managed to improve their overall defensive passer rating to 76.5.  They've done so by picking off more passes, and dropping their opponents YPA from 6.7 yards last year to 6.3 yards this year.   This is a direct result of better corner play.  Remember that at one point last year, Indy was starting Tim Jennings and Ratliff at the corners.  Lacey and Powers have clearly upgraded the pass defense.

Sacks:

The 2008 Colts had an adjusted sack rate of 5.6%.  The 2009 Colts have upped that to 7.0%.  In 2008, Freeney and Mathis accounted for 22 of the Colts 30 sacks (73.3%).  This year, they have combined for 19 of the 26 sacks (73%).  This is interesting because of how much more the Colts have blitzed.  It seems the blitz isn't helping the Colts get sacks from more places, but rather is helping free up Freeney and Mathis.  At their current pace, they will finish with somewhere around 14 sacks a piece.  The pass rush is still just Freeney and Mathis, but perhaps the blitz is freeing them up to get home more often.

The 2008 Colts had 30 sacks on the year, and the 2009 Colts are on a pace for 38.  That's basically a half a sack per game improvement.

Drive Success:

The 2008 Colts allowed 33.29 yards, 1.77 points, and 0.172 turnovers a drive with a "drive success rate" of 0.706.  The 2009 team bests all of those numbers allowing 29.9 yards, 1.59 points, and 0.176 turnovers a drive with a drive success rate of 0.678.

WR Coverage:

Here's where we see the improved corner play.  The 2008 Colts were TERRIBLE against #1 WRs, allowing a DVOA of 21.4% (28th in the NFL).  Indy was good against 2nd and 3rd WRs (-15.8% and -10.8% respectively) in 2008, but got torched by #1s.  In 2009, they have posted a DVOA of 3.6% against #1s, a massive improvement.  The over all performance against all types of WRs is more consistent (-0.7% and -1.2%) though not as good.  To me, that would indicate more consistent corner play overall in 2009 as opposed to one glaring weak link in 2008.  The Colts' have also improved DRAMATICALLY against TEs and RBs.  The 2008 Colts posted numbers of 2.4% and 8.4% against TEs and RBs (with Gary Brackett missing a third of the year).  This year, the Colts have shot up against both with excellent numbers of -13.9% and -18.8% (both top 10 in the NFL).  Those numbers would indicate that the linebacker play has greatly improved this year as they are most often responsible for backs and TEs.

Power Running:

There is some evidence the DTs are playing better as well, at least on short yardage.  The 2008 Colts stopped power runs only 22% of the time (30th in the NFL).  The stuffed runs for zero gain or losses only 16% of the time.  In 2009, the Horse has improved.  Power runs are now stopped 34% of the time (17th in the NFL), though Indy has actually gotten worse at stuffing run plays (14%, 31st in the league).

Third Down Percentage:

Not much has changed.  The 2008 Colts were last in the NFL, allowing opponents to convert an astounding 47% of third downs.  The 2009 Colts are better, but not much.  They are 29th in the league at 44%.

Summary:

By every meaningful standard the 2009 Colts' defense is better than the 2008 defense.  They get more pressure; they force more turnovers; they allow fewer points.  In some cases, the improvements are modest, but across the board, the Colts have improved.  There is every reason to expect a better fate for the 2009 Colts than the 2008 Colts.  The 2009 Colts are better on offense and on defense.  Tomorrow, we'll examine the special teams play and the coaching.

I'm going to double dip on this post and kick things off by announcing that 18 Plays is up for last week's game.  18 Plays is the official podcast of 18to88.com and is brought to you by Broad Ripple Tree Service (which rumor has it is enthusiastically endorsed by a guy who was once unenthusiastically endorsed by Vern Flemming).  You can check out the podcast by downloading it from the link above, subscribing via ITunes, or listening in the embedded player below.  There's some cool stuff this week, including (what I think was) good insight into the Reggie Wayne TD pass.

Moving right along, Tom Gower of Total Titans stops by again today for a little give and take on Sunday's game.  You can check out my answers to his questions here.

DZ:  1.  Vince Young is statistically playing the best football of his NFL career.  What has been the biggest improvement in his game to date?