God Bless Us, Every One

Written by Nate Dunlevy on .

Philippians 2:4-11

Each of you should look not only to your own interests, but also to the interests of others.  Your attitude should be the same as that of Christ Jesus:

Who, being in very nature God, did not consider equality with God something to be grasped,  but made himself nothing, taking the very nature of a servant, being made in human likeness.

And being found in appearance as a man, he humbled himself and became obedient to death-- even death on a cross!

Therefore God exalted him to the highest place and gave him the name that is above every name,

that at the name of Jesus every knee should bow, in heaven and on earth and under the earth, and every tongue confess that Jesus Christ is Lord, to the glory of God the Father.

--Joy to the world.  Merry Christmas from 18to88.com

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18 Plays Posted

Written by Nate Dunlevy on .

18 Plays is up for last weeks' Jags game.  18 Plays is brought to you by Broad Ripple Tree Service.  You can listen by downloading the podcast here, subscribing via ITunes, or by listening in the embedded player below.

Holiday scheduling note:  I'll be linking up articles, but don't look for a major post until Eyes in the Backfield goes up either late tomorrow or early on Saturday.

Scheduling Conflict

Written by Nate Dunlevy on .

Westside Rob chimes in with this little bit of research:

I’ve been seeing a lot of people starting to talk up Rivers MVP candidacy and one of the arguments they seem to be using is that the Colts haven’t played anyone (See PK’s MMQB-Tues Edition). So I did a quick breakdown on the respective schedules, that goes a little beyond CHFF’s Quality wins analysis. CHFF counts a .500 team the same as a 1-13 team in terms of quality wins which I think is unjustified. Anyone AT or above .500 in the NFL is a quality opponent and this year at least is in the playoff hunt.

The current NFL basically falls roughly into 3 tiers: Winning clubs, .500 clubs, and horrible clubs, so I broke each teams opponents through week 15 down as such

Combined Rec of Opp

Colts

95

101

.500 +

4

0

34

22

0.607

.500

7

0

49

49

0.500

.500 -

3

0

12

30

0.286

No team under .500 since week 9

Chargers

93

103

.500 +

5

2

60

38

0.612

.500

1

1

14

14

0.500

.500 -

5

0

19

51

0.271

2 teams under .500 since week 9

Basically the Chargers have faced more teams over .500 but lost to two of them (they have 5 wins against +.500 teams vs the Colts 4 wins).

However more importantly in my opinion the Colts have faced a total of 11 teams at or above .500 and won all of those contest.  SD has faced 9 total teams at or above .500 and gone 6-3 against them.  The Chargers have also had 5 cupcakes to the Colts 3.  The overall winning percentage of teams they’ve faced just slightly favors the Colts having the harder schedule but that’s is almost always the case with the way the NFL schedules currently, in terms of schedule difficulty doesn’t vary in the aggregate wins and losses by much.  I don’t think that anyone can really make a case that Rivers has faced a dramatically more difficult schedule.  In fact if just a couple of the 3 AFC South teams end up finishing above .500 the Colts would have faced and won 8 games against teams with winning records.  SD can only at best add 2 games against above .500 teams to their schedule.

DZ Comments:  There are other ways to look at it, but they all come out the same.  By DVOA, Indy has the 12th toughest schedule, the Chargers the 20th.  By just winning percentage, Indy has played a schedule of .485 (95-101 brought down by the 1-13 Rams).  The Chargers have played a schedule of .474 (93-103).  Neither team has played an especially difficult or easy slate.  I tend to think people make too much out of scheduling differences in the NFL.  I don't think there's any good evidence that Indy or San Diego has played a tougher schedule than the other.  Indy plays in a much tougher division, and San Diego crossed with the toughest NFC division.  It's basically a wash.  It certainly doesn't do much to bolster River's case for MVP.

Choose Wisely

Written by Nate Dunlevy on .

(Note:  I'm stealing this metaphor from Demond's comments yesterday.  All credit to him and the readers for developing it.  It deserves to see the light of day).

The Holy Grail.

It represents eternal life.  He who possesses it will live forever.  The closer anyone gets to it, however, the more deadly it becomes.

Indy is so close.  The validation of a life time of work that has constantly slipped through his fingers is so close he can almost reach out and grab it.

Others have gone before in the quest.

The crazy Nazi tried to drink greedily from the Grail, and died because he got old too quickly.

Elisa brazenly reached for it, and tumbled to her doom.

Indy sees it now.  It's right there, tempting him.

Fortunately, there's a voice of reason.  A voice of wisdom and experience calling him back off the ledge.

There was a time when I had a level head about me when it came to 16-0.  My head told me that this team is so banged up, it would be foolish to put people at risk.  The Colts should play conservatively.  Rest is necessary and good, especially for a team with so many key players limping around.  Now that they are just two games away from finishing off the perfect regular season, however, all I can think is that I want them to go for it.

Is it wise?

No.  Actually, I think it's the worst thing they could do.

At the end of the day, the Colts have at best a 25-30% chance of winning the Super Bowl.  Their actual odds are lower.  Now, those odds are better than any other team has, but that doesn't matter.  They are still well below 50/50.  No matter what Caldwell and Polian decide, there's a high liklihood they won't win it all, and everyone will kill them for whatever call they make. Public sentiment is super high for going for it.  So high that people will never forgive the Colts for resting players if they fail to win the Super Bowl.  The call to rest players is only the correct call if you are 100% sure that playing them would cost you a Super Bowl.  If it is just a preference, you have to calculate the long term ramifications of pissing on the whims of your fans.  I'm all for brave, ballsy decisions. I'm all for doing the right thing even when unpopular.  But when a thing is this unpopular, you have to be CERTAIN it's the unquestioned right plan of action.

Rest is the high percentage play here.  No matter what others may say, I know that if they rest players and lose, it will be because of a missed kick, a bad call, or a fatal flaw (like the O-line falls apart).  It won't be because they were 'too rusty' or 'out of synch'.  I'm not going to hold it against them.  No matter what else, I 100% endorse the silent treatment the coaches are giving it.  One week at a time?  This team is taking it one DAY at a time.  The more intense the attention, the tighter the focus.  We do what we have to do today.  We practice.  On Sunday, we play.  There is no Monday.  There's no 16-0 because we aren't 15-0 yet.  It's brilliant.

No, my head assures me that taking it easy will be the right play.  Play Manning a good chunk of the Jets game (more than a series or a quarter), and let it go. The Grail will kill you.

The evil Patriots spent 5 months in "Eff-you" mode, greedily crushing teams until they flat ran out of gas at the end, looking ancient in the process.

The Saints foolishly declared themselves to be going for 16-0 when it wasn't their time to do so.  Didn't work out so well for them.

Indiana Jones knew that.  He knew it.  He gave all the right advice to Elisa, but when it was right there in front of him...

I don't want this team to lose.  I want it all.  Immortality.  The Greatest Team Ever.  The Greatest Quarterback Ever.  It's all right there.  It's not too far!  We can just about grab it.  What could happen?  It's just a few more inches...

Let it go, Indiana.  Let the Colts ride off into the sunset this season.  They'll ride off as heroes.  They'll ride off as legends.

They'll ride off alive.

Then again...

Maybe dying in pursuit of immortality is better than living to make a lame sequal about aliens, ESP, and crystal skulls.

Screw it.

Play this week all out.

Next week...don't worry about next week.

We can get it...We can almost reach it...

Happy Coltsnukkah

Written by Nate Dunlevy on .

From: MonkeyBusiness (aka Adam)

To: All our Jewish readers, (even you, JC)

We have a little QB
His name is Peyton M.
And when he throws for TDs
Us fans, we all love him

Oh Peyton Peyton Peyton
Our Manning, he did play
Oh Peyton Peyton Peyton
TDs he throws all day

He has a guy named Reggie
Who runs crisp routes all day
And when he burns defenders
Our Manning makes them pay

Oh Peyton Peyton Peyton
Our Manning, he did play
Oh Peyton Peyton Peyton
TDs he throws all day

He has a guy named Dallas
He's big and strong and fast
And when he beats linebackers
He scores TDs real fast

Oh Peyton Peyton Peyton
Our Manning, he did play
Oh Peyton Peyton Peyton
TDs he throws all day

The Colts are undefeated
14 and 0 so far
And if we win the playoffs
Well I might just burn some cars

Oh Peyton Peyton Peyton
Our Manning, he did play
Oh Peyton Peyton Peyton
TDs he throws all day

Happy Coltsnukkah!

Twas the night before New York

Written by Nate Dunlevy on .

Twas the night before New York, and all through the city,

Not a Colt was a stirrin', it was such a pity

The playoffs were set with a bye all secure,

But the fans all felt 16-0's great allure

The DEs were resting, all snug on the sidelines

And Peyton was sitting, just biding his time

While visions of MVP just wouldn't fit my rhyme.

My kids in their jerseys and I in my cap

Watched Painter on the field, taking a crap

Up on the scoreboard, our hopes took a batter

As Ugoh and Toudouze left Painter to splatter

Away from the game, I clicked like a flash

As my post holiday cheer started to crash

A pall set in on the crest fallen crowd,

As defeat covered the Luke like a burial shroud

When what to my wondering eyes did appear,

Santa Jim Caldwell yelling for all to hear

"On Peyton, on Reggie, on Saturday and Joe!

Off Painter, off Baskett, off, Simpson and Ugoh!"

As dry leaves before the hurricane must fly,

When met with a deficit, mount to the sky!

So up over Revis, the passes they flew

And instead of trailing by 9, it was cut to just two!

Then Freeney arrived with with bone jarring crack

And left poor young Sanchez stripped with a sack.

Brackett tumbled toward the ball without tarry,

and scooped it up quick, like a yummy Christmas cherry.

He had a broad face, and a little round belly,

and rumbled for 15 yards like bat out of helly.

The crowd spoke not a word as Manning went to his work

To leave Ryan crying, that loud mouthed jerk.

As he fit in one more pass to Frenchy right on the nose,

Everyone's undefeated hopes at once all rose

He found Clark at the twenty on a pretty route

And turned to the ref to burn the last Indy timeout

Stover's kick split the uprights and passed from our sight

It's a nice dream I keeping having, night after night.

All Locked Up?

Written by Nate Dunlevy on .

A couple of weeks ago, I handicapped the MVP race.  Let's see how that's worked out.

1.  Peyton Manning

What he had to do:  Go 16-0 and/or break the completion percentage record

What he has done in the last three games:  3-0, 61%, 96.0 rating, 9 TDs 4 INT, had a huge game on national TV in which he threw a long game winning TD pass

What he has left to do: He needs to play a good game this week.  The Jets have possibly the best pass defense in the NFL, so it could be tough to post numbers.  As long as Manning plays reasonably well and the Colts get the win, the MVP has to be his.  If Indy goes 16-0, the award is Manning's independent of what anyone else does.

2.  Drew Brees

What he had to do: Finish 16-0

What he has done in the last three games:  2-1, 70.9%, 101.4 rating, 6 TDs, 2 INT, had a mediocre game on national TV in which he couldn't lead the game tying drive at the end.

What he has left to do:  Hope Manning loses, post huge numbers.  He's not out of it, just because he's popular and "Manning Fatigue" is a real issue with voters.  15-1 and taking the yardage title from Manning could do it.  Now that the Saints need just a win to clinch home field throughout, it will be interesting to see how much he plays in the final week of the season.

3.  Phil Rivers

What he had to do:  Wasn't on the list, because he had no real shot to win (still doesn't)

What he has done in the last three games: 3-0, 66.3%, 107.3 rating, 6 TDs, 3 INT, big game winning drives in high profile games against Dallas and Cincinnati.

What he has left do:  Throw for 1000 yards and 10 TDs in his final two games.  Rivers is this high on the list because he's the guy everyone loves to say, "Why isn't Phil Rivers on MVP lists?" even though he is on every MVP list.  His candidacy is rock solid statistically  and philosophically.  He has carried the Chargers.  Working against him is that there are two other QBs with identical numbers, better records, whose teams are just as dependent on them, and Brees and Manning aren't giant douches.

4.  Brett Favre

What he had to do:  Keep his rating over 105, TD/INT ratio of 2:1, go 4-1

What he has done:  1-2, 62.7%, 76.1 rating, 3 TDs, 4 INT

What he has to do:  Bribe people.  Last night's game with Carolina sealed the deal.  His coach tried to bench him.  Um, you can't be an MVP if your coach tries to bench you.  A mediocre team took the run away from the Vikings and dared them to beat them with Favre.  He could not do it.  Three weeks ago he was the odds on favorite, but I can't see him getting more than a vote or two now.  He's fading fast, and the Vikings might wind up in the #3 slot.  The Favre experiment might yet end badly in Minnesota.

5.  Chris Johnson

What he had to do:  Titans needed to win 10 games, he needed to hit 2000 yards rushing

What he has done:  2-1, 334 yards, 4.0 YPC, 11 catches 152 yards, 3 total TDs

What he has to do:  500 yards, 2 wins, make the playoffs, hope Manning loses a game.  500 yards over his final two games would give Johnson the all time single season rushing record.  It would be insane production and if it also coincided with the Titans making the playoffs, it would be impossible to argue against him.  He is that team.

 

The Path of Least Resistance

Written by Nate Dunlevy on .

Since 2004, the Fantastic Four have dominated the AFC.

The Patriots, Steelers, Colts and Chargers have won 19 of a possible 24 division titles (assuming the Pats win this year).  They represent 8 of the last 10 AFC Conference finalists.  They have won 4 of the past 5 Super Bowls between them.

They are a combined 276-99 (.736) and none of the four teams has posted a losing record in that stretch.  They have posted seasons of 16-0, 14-0 (in progress), and 15-1.  The four teams have been quarterbacked by Brady, Manning, Roethlisberger, Brees and Rivers, inarguably the five best quarterbacks in football over that same stretch.

They possess the key to winning the Super Bowl...

Avoiding one another.

These four represent such a gauntlet that it has become virtually impossible to navigate through the AFC to the Super Bowl unless you can avoid playing two of these four teams.

In 2004, the Patriots managed to beat Indianapolis and Pittsburgh on their way to the title.  That's the first and last time anyone has beaten two of the Fantastic Four.  All others who have tried, failed.

In 2005, the Steelers won the Super Bowl managing to beat Indianapolis in the process.  They were saved from having to play at New England when the Broncos knocked them off.  Instead of facing Brady in Foxborough, they got Jake Plummer.  They won the AFC.

In 2006, the Colts won the Super Bowl dumping New England along the way.  They caught a break as the Pats and Chargers played in the second round, ensuring that they only had to play one of the Fantastic Four.  The Pats had to play two of them, and lost.

In 2007, the Patriots were aided as the Steelers dropped a first round game to the Jags.  They then beat San Diego on their way to a perfect very nice season.  The Chargers beat the Colts, but then lost to New England.  Beating two of the four was too much to ask.

In 2008, the Steelers beat the Chargers in the divisional round, and took home the Super Bowl title.  San Diego beat Indy, but couldn't beat the second link in the chain.

Once again in 2009, the Chargers, Colts, and Patriots top the AFC, with Pittsburgh lurking at 7-7 trying to sneak in.  It's entirely possible that the key to making the Super Bowl will have as much to do with the way the seeding works out as it does the play on the field.  Whenever you face multiple elite teams with elite quarterbacks, it becomes more difficult to win all the games.  The pattern of the AFC in recent years shows that the team with the easiest path through the Four is the team that will advance.

This is why we are rooting for the Patriots to finish in the third slot behind the Chargers.  First, it would set up a brutal path for New England, especially if Pittsburgh does manage to sneak in the 6th spot.  They could have to play the Steelers, Chargers, and Colts consecutively. Even if Pittsburgh doesn't make it, it still forces the Pats and Chargers to play in the second round in San Diego.  Either team would be a tough foe to face in Indianapolis for a spot in the Super Bowl, and I have no particular fear of either team.

I just don't want to play both of them.  It's fine to wax poetic about "wanting to play the best" and "beating teams that beat us".  The odds are strong that should the Colts advance to the AFC Championship game they'll get either the Pats or the Chargers.  In another couple of years no one will care if the Colts played both of them along the way; they'll only remember the result of the matchup.  It comes down to simple math, and I want the easiest path possible.

As things stand now, the Pats would take the #3 seed if they win out, based on "Strength of Victory" over the Bengals.  Both teams would finish with identical records, conference records, and records verses common opponents.  The only way rooting for the Pats to finish third would backfire is if Pittsburgh qualifies at 6th and goes into New England and win. That would set up Indy/Pittsburgh in the second round with the Chargers taking the leftovers.  I'd rather avoid the karmic drama of #1 Colts verses #6 Steelers if you don't mind.

Who to Root For-Week 15

Written by Nate Dunlevy on .

Let's take a quick look at the Colts rooting interests this weekend...

First, our ideal order of finish:

1. Colts (locked)

2.  San Diego-Let's be realistic.  It would be great if the Chargers finish 3rd, but I doubt it's going to happen.  Ultimately, I'd rather put NE and SD against each other in round two ahead of any other scenario.

3.  New England-This forces the Pats and Chargers to play each other before Indy.  I'm still convinced NE is the third best team in the conference.

4.Cincinnati-They have to play somewhere.  Indy would almost assuredly play the winner of the Cincy Denver game.

5. Denver-I'm confident the Colts will handle Marshall better with a full compliment of corners

6.  New York Jets-The worst of the wild card teams, they lost to the Jags at home.  Indy is 4-0 against Baltimore, Miami and Jacksonville, so none of those teams are scarey.  None will win at New England anyway.

Pats @ Bills

I want the Pats to play San Diego, so I'm pulling for them to win.  If NE loses, then I'll root for the Bengals today.  Who am I kidding?  I want Brady to toss 6 picks.

Falcons @ Jets

Meh.

Miami @ Titans

Who do you want to see less in January?

Raiders @ Broncos

I wouldn't mind seeing Denver totally fall apart.

Texans @ Rams

Probably doesn't matter, but I'd rather not see Houston again after two close games.

Bears @ Ravens

No fear of Baltimore, but still.

Bengals @ Chargers

If the Pats lose, then this switches to being a pro-Bengals pick.  I don't think they will, so I'll go with SD for now.

Green Bay @ Pittsburgh

Let's just cut the head off of that monster once and for all.  Forgive me for never wanting to see Pittsburgh in the playoffs again.

MVP #4!?!!?

Written by Luke Dunlevy on .



Peyton says... "Believe it."

Cowboys 24  -  Saints 17
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