I'm putting this link up on the front page because I think it is important.

The next time someone takes a pot shot at Tony Dungy or praises Larry Coyer too much, remind them that our D isn't that much better than it was before.

Sometimes the story simply writes itself. The Indianapolis Colts, long an offense-first team with a history of early playoff flame outs, make the Super Bowl after their new head coach jettisons the long-time defensive coordinator to bring in a more diverse and aggressive scheme. The players fill up reporters' notebooks with quotes about how they are finally attacking opposing defenses rather than passively playing their previous coach's antiquated Tampa-2. Thus, the defense must be better. The problem is that, objectively, the Colts defense under first-year coordinator Larry Coyer is no better than it has been in recent seasons

Again, though, this theory fails to survive objective examination. According to Football Outsiders' DVOA, the Colts defense under previous coordinator Ron Meeks had been "above average" in six of the seven playoff games it has played since 2005. The one exception was the loss to San Diego in the 2007 postseason, when Dwight Freeney was injured. This year, the Colts defense dominated the Baltimore Ravens, but it played a very bad first half against a mediocre New York Jets offense, leading to the second worst defensive performance by a Colts' defense in the playoffs since the 2005 season. Even their dominating performance against Baltimore in this year's divisional round does not have a single-game DVOA rating quite as high as the 2006 defense's domination of those same Ravens.

This conclusion is hard to reconcile with certain preconceived notions we have about the relative merit of variety. It seems self-evident that defensive variety is a virtue, leading to increased preparation time by opposing coaches and increasing the likelihood of confusing the opponent's quarterback. For instance, in 2002, after Dungy left the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, that defense diversified its scheme a little bit and moved from very good to historically great. The Colts, however, have not improved despite the diversification.

The article goes on to point out that the Colts really haven't altered their core philolsophy radically.  In fact, I'd say what improvement there is stems from having better players than last year.  Though the Colts have struggled with secondary issues this year, Tim Jennings has mostly been relegated to the second or third corner.  Clint Session is a full year better as are the DTs. On top of everything else, McAfee has added touchbacks to the arsenal which greatly help the defense.

Better players not better coaching are what have made the difference this year.

It's hard to compare teams from different conferences, but this season the Colts and Saints both crossed with the AFC East, meaning we have a few data points on which we can compare the two teams.  Of course, the Colts tanked two of those AFC East games, so tighten things up slightly.  Let's look at how both teams fared against common opponents and see what we can learn.  For this exercise, I'm going to disregard the first Jets game and the Bills game for obvious reasons.  That means that both teams played the Jets, Dolphins, Patriots, Rams, and Cardinals.  Both teams won all five games.  Today we'll compare how the Saints and Colts offenses performed against common opponents, tomorrow we'll look at the defenses.

Colts and Saints Offenses

Jets (both at home):

Dolphins (both on road):

Patriots (both at home):

Cardinals (Colts on road, Saints at home):

Rams (both on road):

Observations:

• This is a good sampling of games.  Four of the five teams were at least .500 on the season.  Each team faced one of these teams as a playoff game, and four of the five games were played with identical home/road splits.  This is as meaningful a comparison set as we could hope for from an interconference matchup.
  
• Indy scored 30 in 4 of 5 games.  They only didn't score 30 against the Dolphins, but that might have been the best offensive game of the year by any team.  The Saints hit 38 points twice, but had very poor games against the Jets and Rams.
• Manning out played Brees against four of the five opponents, but the Colts outscored the Saints in just two of the five matchups. Defensive and Special Teams touchdowns have been deducted.
• The Saints run offense is tremendous, out gaining the Colts in all five games by a minimum of 31 yards, usually out rushing the Colts by nearly 50 yards a game.
• I was surprised by Brees's relative lack of production and discovered that he had 15 of his league high 34 TD passes in just three games (6 against Det, 5 against NE, 4 against NYG).  In his other 13 games, he threw 19 TDs.

Conclusion:

The Saints and Colts both feature excellent offenses.  Manning had an edge on Brees more often than not, but the Saints more than made up for it with a potent run game. The X factor is clearly turnovers.  The Saints turned it over 9 times in these five games, and the Colts just 4.  Frankly, I find these numbers encouraging.  It's easy to think of the Saints as an unstoppable offense, but they have been stopped.  The Colts are less flashy, and perhaps less complete, but at least against these opponents, they were just as effective.

I want to follow up on this morning's post by noting how the Saints defense has performed against the best quarterbacks they've played.

The Saints faced off against five top flight QBs this season.  That is defined as passers with ratings above 90 for the season.  On the whole, 12 different QBs accomplished that feat.  Six of them faced the Saints, although McNabb did not play in the game.

It is easy to see that the Saints D has been great against the best quarterbacks in the league.  The combined rating of these 5 was just 72.9 against the Saints.  That's only slightly higher than their overall defensive passer rating against number of 68.6.

We can say a lot of things about the Saints, but they certainly had no trouble with the top quarterbacks in the game.

If you want to compare the Colts' performance against similar QBs here are the numbers:

That's good for a rating of 85.6 compared with their overall defensive passer rating of 80.6.

Observations:

• Both teams saw their DPR increase slightly.  The Saints were 4.3 points worse against elite passers; the Colts were 5 points worse.  Both are comparable.
• It's interesting that the Colts and Saints faced the same number of pass attempts from elite passers, despite the Saints playing five such games to the Colts' four.
• Surprisingly, the Colts picked off more passes and allowed more touchdowns.  I wouldn't have guessed either of those.
• The Colts played three games against QBs that just missed the cut for inclusion.  Ultimately, however, Joe Flacco and Kyle Orton don't deserve to be called elite QBs anyway, so I think the list settled in nicely.  All the QBs on this list clearly deserve to be there.

(Note: tip to Garrison for the post idea, and my apologies to Paul Kuharksy who mentioned last night that he's going to do a post with a similar theme later this week.  I swear I didn't steal the idea from you!)

Some reporters noted with awe that Peyton Manning watched three year old game film to prepare for last week's matchup against Rex Ryan.

That's nothing.  I'm betting he goes back ten years this time.

New Orleans defensive coordinator Gregg Williams has bounced around quite a bit over the past decade, but his first run in with Peyton Manning occurred in the 1999 playoffs.  Overall, he hasn't had a lot of success against Peyton Manning, but his first game against the Colts' quarterback falls high on list of Most Painful Losses.  Here's the full chart of the game where Manning took Gregg Williams on, either as a head coach or defensive coordinator.

As you can see, Manning has played well against Williams designed defenses, posting a passer rating of 102.2.  Williams hasn't always had the most talented defenses, I suppose, but he's offered little resistance to Manning.  Peyton will be sure to watch tape of every game he's ever played against Williams, despite the fact that I'm not sure he wants to see Jerome Pathon and E.G. Green ever again.  I seriously doubt Williams will be able to do anything to surprise Manning.  The Saints are going to have to work on out executing the Colts offense.

Good luck with that.

The Saints defense is a middle of the pack kind of defense this season, ranking 14th overall in the FO rankings.  They are better against the pass (9th) than the run (29th).  Their ranking in conventional NFL stats is crazy low, but what matters is that they are 3rd in interceptions, 3rd in defensive passer rating, and have allowed the 5th fewest passing touchdowns.  The Saints have one dominant rusher (DE Will Smith who has 13 sacks). No other Saint has more than 5.5, but 12 different players have at least half a sack.  The Saints are clearly a team that relies on blitz pressure in order to get to the quarter back.  They also have 11 different players with at least one interception, though the key is Safety Darren Sharper who had 9 picks on the season.

Much like the matchup with Rex Ryan, Williams is going to have to work hard to disguise his blitzes and coverages in order to show Manning something he has never seen before.  Considering that this isn't Williams first trip to the Super Bowl, I seriously doubt he's going to be able to invent something completely new just for Manning. He's coached in too many big games and key spots in order to whip something out of his bag of tricks that he's been saving for this moment.  Whatever he had, he would have used last week against the Vikings or perhaps back in the 1999 Super Bowl against the Rams.

He's faced him plenty of times.  There is lots of tape to watch.

Gregg Williams is a known commodity to Peyton Manning.

Mad God have mercy on his soul.

I have to tell you, I'm glad last week is over.  I did not enjoy myself.

After dealing with an influx of crazy Jet fans who showed up just to make work for me (what?  You don't rank teams by yards?  Why not?), it's nice that I haven't been swarmed under by a load of Cajuns.  It's not that I don't want the traffic, I just hate the weird trash talking.

In fact, I doubt there will be very much of that at all between these two franchises. There's too much in common and too many deep ties.

To begin with, both teams are dome teams known for their offense.  So right off the bat, we can dispense with the stupid "my style is better than your style" crap.  The Colts and Saints are similar, but no one is going to do any mud slinging about how the other team's QB piles up stats.  Both cities are relatively small markets, that takes away the whole "you live in a corn field...yeah, well you live in a swamp" argument.

Most importantly, however, there are just too many deep ties between the players and the opposing cities.

The Saints QB is Drew Brees, who is something of an Indiana legend. He's the only player who ever made me root for Purdue.  Purdue fans revere Brees.  They also have a weird habit of rooting for ex-Purdue guys over the Colts.  It's just anecdotal, but Polian said on Sunday that:

This person said to me, "Well, there's a great affinity for the Dolphins going all that way back to Bob Griese (an Evansville native and Purdue All-American who led Miami to the 1972 and 1973 Super Bowl titles).

Demond swears he heard a West Lafayette guy saying that Purdue fans were torn on Sunday because of Keller (Jets TE who played at Purdue).  Our uncle passionately cheers for Curtis Painter to enter EVERY GAME.  Seriously, Purdue fans are weirdly loyal to ex-players.  The Brees thing goes deeper than just that for me, however.

First, Brees was the anti-Vick.  The Chargers took him with the first pick of the second round the year they traded the rights to Vick.  I always loved that move.  Now, Brees has become a referendum on Chargers GM A.J. Smith.  First, Smith wanted a new QB when Brees was with the team, basically because he didn't draft him.  So he tried to use the first pick on Eli Manning.  Papa Manning rightly figured that the Chargers already had a top flight QB they weren't developing, so he told the team to screw off.  Then Smith took Manning anyway, eventually trading him to the Giants for the rights to Phil Rivers.  Rivers held out, and Brees took the starting job away from him his rookie year and proceeded to become the elite QB he was always on his way to being.  Smith then let Brees go (he did have a gimpy shoulder which was obviously not serious in retrospect).  Now, Eli has already won a Super Bowl with the Giants, and Brees has taken the Saints to their first championship game, becoming the symbol of the city in the process.  Meanwhile in San Diego...cue the Phil Rivers face.  I always root for Brees as a way of expressing my disdain for Smith.

There are other Saints with Hoosier ties as well. Courtney Roby is an Indy native and ex-Hoosier who played one game for the Colts before getting cut (d'oh! we'd love to have him back).  Tracey Porter is a Hoosier as well.  There aren't that many Hoosiers in the NFL (what 9 or 10 total?), so for one team to have two is pretty sweet.

I think the love cuts both ways.  Louisiana has always been strongly behind the Colts since the arrival of Manning.  There's no need to retrace the importance of New Orleans to Peyton or the stature of his family there.  It's not just Peyton, though.  Reggie Wayne is from New Orleans as well.  Joe Addai went to LSU.  Heck, even Matt Stover went to Louisiana Tech.  The point is that some of the biggest names on the Colts have ties to New Orleans.  You get the feeling like fans of these two franchises have almost adopted the other team as their "other conference" team.  Because they rarely play, there is no natural animosity.  Each franchise affords fans of the other the chance to keep rooting for hometown guys guilt free.

So that being said, I say, "Welcome, People of New Orleans! I like your team.  I've pulled for you all along.  I have deep respect for your coach and QB.  I think you are a deserving foe, and take no offense when I say that I hope we blow you guys out of the building on Sunday."

Anything is better than another week of Jets fans.

The undercurrent has been brewing for a couple of years that Marvin Harrison was the problem with the Colts' offense in the postseason.

Yesterday, Reggie Wayne showed just how ridiculous that notion is.

When asked about Garcon and Collie, Manning was quick to praise his veteran #1 Reggie Wayne.  Wayne, only had 3 catches for 55 yards, yet garnered a lot of kudos from Manning.  In the first game, Wayne caught 8 passes, but for only 63 yards.  The reason Manning cited Wayne is that he knows that a WR can't be measured just by his catches.  In the postseason, #1 WRs often get taken away.  Check all of Randy Moss's great games in the playoffs.  There aren't any.  A wideout, unlike other players, is dependent on several different players just to get a catch attempt.  He can't make anything happen on his own until the QB has time to throw to him and makes that choice.  A wideout can beat his man every play and never see the ball.  Hence, Manning heaped praise on Wayne for helping to make 100 yard games by Collie and Garcon possible.

When discussing Marvin Harrison, it's important to realize that there were four phases to his postseason career, and each was very different.

1996:  Indy plays in Pittsburgh.  Harrison is just a rookie, but is already the Colts' top receiver.  He catches 3 passes for 71 yards in a 41-14 loss.  It's hard to complain about that production

1999, 2000, 2002:  This is the Harrison IS the offense era.  How bad were the Colts other receivers?  Terrance Wilkens was the #2 in 1999.  Teams knew that if they clamped down on Marv, that Manning had nowhere else to go with the ball.  Harrison had 5 catches for 65, 5 for 63 and 4 for 47.  Those numbers are dead on similar to the kinds of game Reggie Wayne had yesterday. The problem was that there was no Pierre Garcon to catch 11 passes or Austin Collie to toss in a spare 100 yards.  Harrison was the leading receiver for the Colts in 3 of his first 4 playoff games. Jerome "I dropped a key TD pass" Pathon out-gained him 6 yards in the Miami game.  It's hard to fault Harrison when he was still the most productive Colt WR on the field.

2003-2006:  Now we've moved into the phase where the Colts had two legit wideouts (three actually for three years).  Harrison's numbers were pedestrian, but the Colts actually went 7-3 in the playoffs in this stretch and won a Super bowl.  Marvin continued to absorb the double coverage even as Reggie Wayne broke out for big games.  During this stretch Marv averaged 4 catches for 59 yards a game.  Again, sound familiar? Go back and watch the tape of the Super Bowl.  Harrison didn't have a huge game, but he did make several key first down catches.  Manning tried to force a pick into him early in the game, but the safety had him doubled.  That was how teams played the Colts.  It didn't matter overall, because Indy had enough weapons to over come it.  Harrison basically had the same game win or lose. Harrison took the double coverage so Wayne could have huge games.

2007-2008:  These games were ugly.  Marv should not have played in the 2007 game, and his fumble legitimately cost Indy the win.  By the fourth quarter of the 2008 game, Harrison was effectively done as an NFL wideout.  Manning threw him one comeback pass in the fourth quarter that comes to mind.  Harrison failed to attack it, sitting passively while the DB cut in front and swatted it down.  I won't argue with anyone who claims Harrison weighed things down in these two games.  Even so, the Colts offense was not the problem in the first loss to San Diego, so it's hard to kill Harrison too much.

Saying that Marvin Harrison was hurting the Colts in the playoffs is about like saying that Reggie Wayne has hurt them this year and that Pierre Garcon has clearly passed him as the Colts best wide out.  Such statements ignore the way football is played and place the blame on wideouts for things they have no control over.  Manning doesn't throw to double covered men, instead favoring single coverage when possible.  Harrison spent his entire career with Manning getting the double coverage.  Now that he's gone, Wayne is getting it.  Harrison's struggles early had more to do with the Colts being an incomplete team.  His struggles late were due to his health.  While he was healthy and the Colts had other options, his stats were low, but the team won lots of playoff games.

As long as Manning has somewhere else to go with the ball, the Colts will keep winning in January and February.

It's with the just the slightest tinge of sadness that I recap one of the crowning moments of football in Indianapolis.  On a night full of hugs, joy, and plans for glory, I can't help but feel like I just watched the absolute pinnacle of the masterful career of Peyton Manning.  He's been brilliant before, of course, but there was something about what he did to the #1 defense in football today that was transcendent.  On a night where at various times he was failed by his line and even his most reliable of receivers (glad you got that ball to bounce back to you again, Reggie), Peyton Manning lifted the franchise onto his shoulders and decimated the vaunted New York Jets secondary.  His entire career I've wondered when I would see the best game he would ever play.  I thought maybe I had seen it on Monday Night in Miami this year, but what he did today defies words.  He's going to have plenty of other incredible days (hopefully one in two weeks), but what I saw from him this afternoon...that may just be the absolute peak of his considerable powers.  I'm so grateful I got to watch it, but also just a little melancholy because now I know.  I know how great he can play.  This is the utter limit of his skill.  The mystery is solved.  I may never see the like again.

Reasons to Smile:

• Pierre Garcon.  Holy Moses, Frenchy.  The last two weeks have elevated him to near legendary status. Already the owner of the greatest hustle play in Colts history, he now owns the record for the most catches in an AFC Championship game.  He didn't just make big catches; he made tough in traffic catches. There was nary a gimme in the bunch.  He was wonderful in every way.  How are the Colts going to find room for all the wideouts next year?
• Austin Collie.  Insane.  At the key moment of the game, Manning found him three straight times for a total of 80 yards and a score.  I cannot believe how good these two have been all year.  I easily confess it was the thing I was most wrong about before the season.  I couldn't see how either Collie or Garcon would end up doing what they have done.  Now...I couldn't imagine life without them.  In the end, all the Revis island stuff was a red herring.  Manning had Collie and Garcon so open all night that there wasn't much cause to look at Wayne.
• After falling behind 17-6, Indy closed the game on a 24-0 run.  The D allowed zero second half points.
• Joe Addai continues to do a little bit of everything, proving he is both extremely tough and incalculably valuable to this team.
• Jim Caldwell's team showed no hint of panic.  Everyone was calm and collected even when a few big plays went the wrong way.  I've really come to root hard for Caldwell.  I think he's been the perfect man to run this team all year.
• Allowing the Jets into the playoffs may have been an accident, but it was a brilliant one.  Listen, I still maintain the Colts were needlessly insensitive to the fact that people bought tickets for Christmas to the first Jets game.  They should have made their intentions more explicit to their fans, and they should have managed the game situations differently in the first game (like not punting in Jet territory).  The decision itself to rest the players was always endorsed by us.  16-0 was never a realistic possibility thanks to that blizzard in Buffalo.  There was no sane way for Indy to win that game, so in my mind it's a non-issue.  Regardless of they could have gone about it, no one can deny that the Colts have been fresh, prepared, and have had a relatively easy road to the Super Bowl.  Beyond that, this team is playing loose and together.  There's no crazy "18-0" pressure to wear them down. I'm convinced that the "Holy Grail" metaphor was perfect.  They let go of the grail, but could well bring home the Lombardi.  I can live with that.
• The speed of the Colts D against the Jets run game.  Too many runs wide looked like they were going to be big gains, but were quickly snuffed out by a blazing linebacker or safety.  Incredible run D today.
• The crowd was "loud as hell" according to Demond, who called it possibly the loudest he's ever heard (and yes, he was at 38-34).
• Kelvin Hayden atoning for a couple of bad plays with an incredible pass breakup late, followed by a pick.  He hung with them today.
• Nobody rebounds from a dropped pass like Dallas Clark.
• Field goal Karma
• Bending, not breaking
• The second half adjustments by the defense were perfect.
• Uh, that guy throwing the ball for the Colts didn't have a bad game either.

The game blog will be updated at the end of every quarter.  This will also serve as your "game thread" for any chit chat.

FIRST QUARTER:

The first quarter ends without either team scoring, but the Colts are staring at at 25 yard field goal.  Early on, the Colts offensive line struggled mightily, allowing two sacks and a false start penalty.  The Colts first drive was cut short thanks in part to a missed pass interference call on a throw to Robinson.  Manning hit Pierre Garcon for two huge plays, however, and the Colts hope to get points on a drive that started at the 10.  The defense was stout, allowing a tough third down conversion when Mathis almost striped Sanchez.  The Jets drove into field goal range, but their attempt sailed wide.  It would have been nice to get a touch down on this last drive, but the Colts are in good position.  The D looks fast, and Manning might be on the verge of figuring out the Jets D.  So far, so good.

SECOND QUARTER:

The second quarter was borderline disastrous for the Colts, especially the defense.  The Jets hit a pair of huge plays deep down field, as the Colts D has been radically out schemed in this game.  The two big plays combined with a total meltdown by the line which led to an Addai fumble have helped the Jets to 17 points.  On offense, the Colts moved the ball effectively, but were killed by a blown line coverage that resulted in Addai getting killed just as he took a hand-off.  With the team trailing 17-6, Manning hit Collie on three straight balls to go for 80 yards and draw the Colts to within 17-13.  Manning has been incredible, posting 218 yards and a rating of 122.0.  Honestly, the issue is all on the defense.  I didn't think the Jets were capable of getting to 17 points, let alone in the first half.  The D has to step up large in the second if the Colts want to go to the Super Bowl.

THIRD QUARTER:

Good quarter for the Colts.  Despite the fact that Mark Sanchez is playing the most incredible game of his life, the Colts managed to take the lead back thanks to a "I'm taking over this game" drive by Manning.  18 hit Garcon for a TD for a 20-17 lead that still stands.  Collie and Garcon have both gone over 100 yards receiving.  The defense is holding its own now, especially against the run.  Sanchez continues to make every throw, and you have to wonder if he's really taken the leap, or if he's about to make a big mistake.  15 minutes to Miami.  It's anyone's game.

FOURTH QUARTER:

WE'RE GOING TO THE SUPER BOWL!!!

PEYTON MANNING PLAYS THE GAME OF HIS LIFE!

One of our readers, Josh, sends us this wire he just received:

REVIS ISLAND--(AP)

The rumors circulating Revis Island for the past week are suddenly looking more like a harsh reality. The tropical depression forming off the coast of Revis Island for the last few days, now a Category 87 storm named "Hurricane Wayne," is rapidly approaching. Set to make landfall shortly after 2:00PM on Sunday, January 24th, Revis Island authorities have been working around the clock to evacuate residents and ensure minimal damage occurs.

"We've never seen anything like this before," said R.I.P.D. commissioner Randy Moss, "and if you ask me, I wouldn't be surprised if this storm wipes Revis Island right off the map." City officials have spent the past twenty-four hours boarding windows and doors in preparation. While Mayor Andre Johnson was not available for comment, a city volunteer was still around and answered a few of our questions. "The weatherman been wrong before, brah," said Steve Smith, "Who knows? Maybe this thing just barely misses us, like a Nate Kaeding field goal." City councilman Roddy White was less optimistic. "Just looking at the data our meteorologists have gathered, this is a very serious storm," said White, "All we can really do is prepare for the worst and hope that our preparations exceed the storm's impact. I think we've done a fine job in that regard, but we won't know 'til Sunday."

The streets of Revis Island have already turned into a virtual ghost town. We caught two residents on their way out and asked their opinion on the matter. "Child please, I was out of here yesterday," said a man who insisted on going by the name 'Ocho Cinco', "We'd be on the freeway by now cruisin' at 85 miles an hour getting away from here as fast as we can if my home boy T.O. right here didn't forget his Katy Perry CD," said Ocho Cinco, gesturing to the gentleman riding shotgun in his vehicle.

Already experiencing blistering wind and lightning storms, Revis Island officials are feeling the eleventh hour crunch. It appears they have made all the right moves, but only time will tell if------TRANSMISSION LOST


**The Associated Press would like to apologize for the early termination of this article. We lost contact with our crew on Revis Island before receiving the complete article and are doing everything we can to verify their safety. An update will be posted when available. Thank you.
-Editor