The NFL is considering new overtime rules.

New, stupid overtime rules.

According to the article, the NFL is considering making OT over when one team reaches 6 points.  The rule would also go into effect in the next playoffs.

The main complaint with the current system is that it is "unfair" because the team that wins the coin toss wins about 60% of the time right now.  Personally, I think the real problem is that people don't know what the word "fair" means.

The current system is designed to END the football game with one team winning.  Before the toss, both teams have an equal shot at winning.  Therefore, it is fair.  The toss is designed to give one team an advantage.  That's the point of tossing the coin.  The advantage is distributed in an impartial and fair way.   The complaint is that the toss is random, lucky.  I submit that in a game using an oblong ball every game is decided by random, lucky events.  The Super Bowl was influenced by an onside kick where the ball bounced around like crazy, and the team that fell on it wasn't awarded it.  Oh no!  Luck was involved.  Let's all rend our garments and wail!  Just about every team that wins an overtime game benefited from multiple 'lucky' plays.  Until we accept that in any close game, random chance affects the outcome as much as skill and design, we'll never understand football.

Some say the goal should be to 'minimize' luck.  Though I'm not sure why that's important at all, I believe the new system will cause more problems than the old one.

First, the idea of implementing an entirely new overtime system for the playoffs is insane.  If the system works well enough to decide playoff games, it should be used all season.  Why start the postseason with an untried system that coaches aren't used to?  It's a recipe for disaster.  It creates a whole new level of strategy, but doesn't give coaches the chance to see how it works out.

Second, the solution doesn't solve the "problem" with the current system.  The Colts lost to the Chargers in 2008 in OT on a touchdown after the Chargers won the toss.  Now, they would have played everything out differently if they had known that a TD was worth more than a FG in OT, but still, under this new rule, that game would still have ended with Indy never seeing the ball.

Third, the new rule will result in longer games and more ties.  Either the NFL creates two OT rules (one for the regular season and one for the postseason), or they will adopt this rule for all games.  I've already said that it makes no sense to have to very different rules governing OT, but the only thing worse would be more ties.  The current system puts a premium on going for it deep in the other team's territory (huzzah!), by creating a system where field goals don't mean as much as they used to.  The odds are high for a lot of empty trips.  It also means that many games will still be decided by three points, but only after the entire 15 minute period is played.  The NFLPA does not want longer games.  Longer games mean more injuries. The point of OT is to resolve the game quickly.

And that's at the heart of the issue.  The labor strife.  The NFL is trying to create issues that they can "give back" to the players without actually sacrificing anything.  By creating a potentially longer OT scenario, the owners can negotiate it away as a concession in the labor negotiations, and it won't hurt them one bit.

For the record, the Colts have played seven OT games in the Manning era.  They are 3-4.  I can't determine who won the toss in the 1998 loss to the Saints, but in the other six games they won the toss three times and lost the toss three times.  They lost to the Panthers (2003 )and Chargers (2008 playoffs) without ever seeing the ball. They beat the Broncos (2002) and Chargers (2004) after winning the toss.  They beat the Bucs (2003) after losing the toss, and lost to the Dolphins (2000 playoffs) after winning the toss and missing a potential game winning field goal.  Three of the games ended on touchdowns (1998 Saints, 2000 Dolphins Playoffs, 2008 Chargers Playoffs).  Indy lost all three games.

UPDATE:  Finally, after serching all day, I've found a clarification on the OT policy.  It is NOT first team to 6, as Rich Eisen reported.  Instead it's a mishmash.  It's only sudden death if the first score is a touchdown or safety (I assume).  If the first score is a field goal, the other team gets a chance to match that field goal.  This eliminates one of my complaints, while creating another.  There won't necessarily be more ties because the game ends after the first possession by the other team (unless they tie the game).  Personally, I find it weird that the NFL would create a policy that discriminates against one particular method of scoring.  In addition, it creates a possible advantage for the team who has the ball second. If the first team scores a field goal, the second team will get to run their drive knowing that they have to go for every possible fourth down.  I assume the counter to that is the advantage of possibly winning the game with a touchdown drive outweighs the advantage gained by getting to see what the other team does.  Personally, I think this won't really solve the problem.  The team that wins the flip will probably still win the game pretty regularly, only this time they'll win it on a touch down instead of a field goal.  It doesn't really address the perceived 'injustice', it just makes it seem like the team that won earned it more.  Yeah, I'm still not a fan.

With the draft coming up in two months, the Colts have to think about restocking at several key positions.  Fortunately, Indy has one of the youngest teams in the league.  The Colts had only 11 players on the 2009 roster that will enter the 2010 season past age 30.  Let's take a look at how much longer the Colts can count on these vets:

Matt Stover, Adam Vinatieri-These are the two oldest Colts on the roster, and we saw the problem with depending on old kickers.  Stover didn't have the leg to make a 51 yard field goal in the Super Bowl.  He was only on the roster because Vinatieri battled injury.  Let's see...loss of length...injuries...check and check.  Time for a new kicker...a younger kicker.

Jeff Saturday-Saturday was the toughest decision on the roster last year, but this season showed why the Colts were right to resign him.  He had a great 2009, and was by far the most dependable lineman.  The Colts ran the ball effectively up the middle thanks to his play.  He'll be 35 next season, and under contract for two more seasons.  Centers can play for a long time, so center doesn't have to be a 'restock' priority this year.

Peyton Manning-Manning will be 34 next year.  He can be expected to have at least four if not five or six more good seasons.  As we've said before, Peyton Manning's replacement is in high school right now, not in the 2010 draft.  I think of Manning's replacement like some kind of apocalyptic devil child.  I wake up in a cold sweat screaming at night, "HE'S DRAWING NIGH!".  Please note that I do NOT recommend going around stabbing high school freshmen with a blade blessed by a blind priest.

Justin Snow-Oh no!  Where will we get another long snapper?  Moving along...

Reggie Wayne-Wayne will turn 32 late in the 2010 season.  On one hand, the Colts are stone cold stocked with wideouts.  On the other hand, injuries happen.  Here's the good news for Wayne.  Of the wideouts most similar to him, most were productive until age 34.  Wayne's contract runs through the 2011 season.  At the end of that year, he'll be 34.  Because it takes a while to develop a good wideout, the Colts have to ask themselves if Wayne's replacement is currently on the roster.  If Gonzo or Garcon can become Reggie Wayne, then there is no need to take another wideout.  However, if the team is looking for something more/different from his replacement, now is the time to draft him.

Raheem Brock-Brock will be a Classic Colt.  He's a hustle player. He's versatile. He's a leader.  He's making too much money and is too old.  The Colts need a new back up passer rusher.  Two seasons have been lost now thanks to injuries to Dwight Freeney.  The Colts simply have to do better than Brock.  Age has caught up to him.  He'll be 32 to start the year, and it would be for the best if someone can beat him out.  The Colts can save $3.8 million by cutting him.

Dallas Clark-Clark turns 31 this year, and is coming off his best season as a pro.  The shelf life on tight ends isn't great.  Clark is under contract through 2013, but four more highly productive years are unlikely.  The Colts need to find a second tight end anyway, and it is probably time to start looking for a replacement for Clark.  He could be good for several more seasons, but I wouldn't count on it.

Ryan Diem-Diem had an up and down season.  The Colts did not run effectively to the outside right (or left).  Diem turns 31 this year, not too old at all for a right tackle.  Still, production rather than age is the reason to look for new tackles.

Dwight Freeney-Freeney has been dominant each of the past two seasons, and other than Manning, he is the most important Colt.  He turned 30 last week.  Most of the elite pass rushers not named Bruce Smith or Reggie White were done by their early 30s.  What we don't know is who Dwight Freeney is.  If he's an all time, Hall of Fame DE, it'll be because he plays another 6 or 7 strong seasons. If he has a more typical career, the end will come quickly.  Judging by the way the Colts structured his contract, my guess is that they think he doesn't have a lot of life left in him.  His base salary jumps $3 million each of the next three seasons, and screams "RENEGOTIATION!".  Though I hope I'm wrong, I think Freeney could have a hard time living up to his 2011 number, let alone his 2012 number.  Now, he could totally turn out to be in the class of guy who posts double digit sacks into his late 30s, but I'm guessing he's not.  The Colts MUST find a new pass rushing DE now.  The clock is ticking on Freeney.

Gary Brackett-He is a key leader on the team.  He has a unique skill set.  He is about to turn 30.  Brackett is this year's Jeff Saturday.  The Colts need him now, but a long term deal doesn't make a ton of sense. The franchise tag would have been a massive overpay.  Brackett's value is in coverage, if he loses even a half step, he'll go from important cog to major liability in a hurry.  He's the right guy at the right number, but the Colts will have to be hunting up a new middle linebacker sooner or later.

What does Joe Addai have to do to get some love from Colts fans?

Just weeks after an outstanding effort in the Super Bowl, and coming off a gritty 'do whatever was asked of him' kind of season, some people already want to kick Joe to the curb in favor of Darren Sproles.

The first and most obvious problem with the scenario posted in the article is the following premise:

If the issue is too much money wrapped up in running backs, I would have no problem seeing Joseph Addai cut in favor of making room for Sproles

Again, the next time any one suggests cutting a popular Colt, they really need to check the salary cap page first.  Addai is only slated to make $2.2 million next year, and about $958 K of that is guaranteed bonus money.  Cutting Addai would save the Colts only about $1.3 million, and mean the team would be paying $900 K for a player that wouldn't be playing for them.  Even if the Colts wanted to bring Sproles on, they wouldn't save nearly enough by cutting Addai to do so. Moreover, there is no salary cap, which means the Colts would have to make such a move strictly to save money, which has never been the way the team has been run.

Beyond that, the concept of cutting Addai to bring on Sproles hinges on two ideas:

1.  Brown is ready to take on the role of lead back

2.  Brown and Sproles as a running back duo is better than Addai and Brown when Sproles special teams abilities are factored in.

Let's deal with each:

1.  Brown is a long way from showing he can handle the job as the #1 running back.

The argument seems to be:  the Colts took him in the first round, so he should be ready to be the #1 back.  To me, the only thing on his resume that commends Brown as a #1 back is his draft status.  Draft status becomes irrelevant the day after the draft.  Brown had a poor rookie year by any standard.  He struggled with injuries.  He struggled with pass protection.  He struggled to run the ball.  There's not much left for him to struggle with.  He might still prove to be a great NFL back, but I saw no reason to anoint him as capable of being the lead back next year.

2. Even with special teams abilities are factored in, there is no way that Sproles and Brown are better than Addai and Brown, mostly because Sproles isn't a good running back.

For this equation to work, Sproles the RB + Sproles the returner has to be better than Addai the RB + Colts returners.  One thing is clear:  Sproles the RB is worse than Addai the RB.  If you just want to go with conventional stats, Addai had more carries, more yards, more touchdowns, a better YPC, and more catches than Sproles.  Sproles had more yards receiving and one more receiving TD.  Most alarmingly, Sproles only rushed for 340 yards last year on 93 carries.  Were the Colts to elect to go with this plan, they would have two running backs who COMBINED for just 181 carries last year, or 40 fewer than Addai by himself (who was hardly overworked).

Advanced stats aren't kind to Sproles either.  Addai's DVOA was 7.7%.  Sproles was -15.3%.  That means were the Colts to try this experiment, they would be dumping the 14th most efficient back in football in favor of running a tandem package of two guys who finished 12 and 15% WORSE than an average NFL back.

Still, to be fair, the point was that you have to factor in Sproles influence on the return game in order to gauge his true impact.  Last year, with Sproles returning kicks, the Chargers had a DVOA of 0.0% in the kick return game and -0.7% in the punt return game.  In other words, they were dead average in both areas.  Granted the Colts were below average in both, but clearly Sproles is not the kind of game changing return man who merits cutting a productive back in order to sign him.

Do I favor signing Sproules? Absolutely.  We need a kick returner, and he fits the bill.  Even an average returner is better than what we had this year.

Bringing in a guy with 199 career carries to replace Joe Addai, however would be suicide.  It would instantly make the Colts worse in the run game.  That doesn't even scratch the surface of the injury risk to player who is running back kicks AND trying to be the #2 back in what will hopefully be a true two back offense.

Joe Addai doesn't need me to defend him any more.  There is no way he'd get cut to make room for Sproles.  There's no statistical justification for the move, and it would be disaster for the team.

Note:  I would have mentioned this earlier, but at first I read that Sproles had been cut.  Because he's an unrestricted free agent, the Colts cannot sign unrestricted free agents unless they are cut by another team.  That makes the whole point moot.

That might be the worst pun I've ever tried in an article title, but it's the offseason.  Take what you can get.

I've updated the article about Bill Polian and the Hall of Fame with stats running through the 2009 season.  The most impressive stat about Polian is that in 21 years, his teams have been to 5 Super Bowls and he's had only 5 losing teams.  In other words, with Polian running the show, a team is as likely to make the Super Bowl as it is have a losing year.

In light of last week's article about how the Colts would finish with an average quarterback, a reader asked a fair question:  "If the Colts are so average without Manning, why does Polian get praised so much?".  Let me address that here.

1.  The Colts started out the year with more talent than they finished it. Indy lost a starting corner, a staring linebacker, their star safety, their kicker, and their number two receiver.  They also battled a myriad of other injuries throughout the year losing the second most games in football to injury.  So when we say that Manning had to carry the team, that wasn't entirely by design.  Now, if someone wants to criticize the GM for injuries, that's shaky ground.  Although in the case of the Colts, they've been among the league leaders in injuries for several years, and some of that has been due to Bob Sanders who was an injury risk from draft day on.  The bottom line is that had the Colts not had such a wave of injuries, the 'average quarterback' article wouldn't have been so necessary.  Indy's starting 22 is awesome and loaded with talent.  We just don't get to see that starting 22 very often.

2.  Polian drafted Manning.  He chose to build his team for maximum success.  No one can argue that the Colts have been extremely successful with this system.  Polian gets credit because his team DOESN'T have a David Garrard or Matt Cassel at QB.  The selection of Manning was far from a no brainer, and Polian was criticized by many for taking Manning.  Because of that, it's only fair to praise him for his choice. Does Manning make everyone around him look better, including the GM?  Sure.  That's why you draft guys like Manning.  They make you look like a genius.  Polian would be the first to admit that.

3.  Polian's weak spot is also the Colts'.  Indy's weakest unit is the offensive line.  Anyone who watched the team knows the Colts O line struggled despite good protection numbers.  Polian has freely admitted that he struggles as a talent evaluator to judge O-linemen.  Indy has drafted two linemen in the second round in three years, and five linemen in the last three years.  None of them have become starters for a team with a notably poor line.  It is entirely fair to criticize Polian for this, but he largely gets a pass for drafting a quarterback who can succeed with a dicey line.

4.  Polian built the entire team.  There is no one on the Colts' roster who wasn't put there by Polian.  That's a rare thing in the NFL.  More than that, almost every player was drafted by Polian.  Even on successful teams, there are often players that are hold overs from old regimes.  Polian has been in Indy 12 years.  Everyone on the Colts is one of his players.

5.  The bottom line is winning.  A GM isn't judged by how much talent his team has, but whether or not they win.  The Colts win every year, never missing the playoffs (in large part thanks to Manning), so the GM gets credit.  Polian built the team.  The team wins.  EVERY YEAR.  Regardless of what flaws it might have or how it would do without Manning, the fact is that Manning IS on this team, so Polian rightfully deserves credit.

The Colts have been rolling the dice for years by not having a backup quarterback.  Seemingly every guy on the roster gets hurt EXCEPT for Manning.  If he were to go down with an injury, and Polian tried to win games with Sorgi or Painter, he'd get crushed because everyone would see how thin the Colts are.

The Colts are the anti-Patriots.  New England runs a 'plug and play' system. The system matters more than the players.  Take away their best player?  No problem, they still win 11 games.  The Colts have built their system entirely around Manning.  Take him away, and they have nothing.  It is debatable which is the better method.  The Pats had more success in the past before teams had figured out the system.  Now, the system is a decade old and showing signs of cracks as the league has adjusted.  The Pats 'draft accumen' has taken hits in recent years, but it may just be because the schemes which once were so dominant no longer are.  They aren't really any worse at picking players than before, they just aren't as good at using them. Meanwhile, the Colts' method will continue to be successful as long as Manning stays upright. If he declines, however, the house of cards will tumble, and Polian will have to pick up the pieces.

Ultimately, when you go to 5 Super Bowls in 21 years and have just 5 losing seasons, you earn the right to do things however you see fit.

As long as he keeps winning, people will keep praising him.  As they should.

He's the best GM in the game.  Hands down.

(This article can be found in the Fixtures Sidebar)

Over the past three years, we've tossed around a lot of theories, acronyms and inside jokes.  Sometimes, it gets old having to reexplain the same concepts over and over.  For new readers (especially drop in Pats fans) here's everything you need to understand the world of 18to88.

38-34:  The 2006 AFC Championship game.  The greatest game in Colts history

Aikmanville: Where Tom Brady lives.  It's a gated community reserved for great quarterbacks whose star fades over time because their rep was built only team accomplishments.

Argentina:  Where DZ currently lives.  He's an Indy native and maintains a permanent address there, but works in Argentina for a religious organization.

The Baltimore Colts:  The Baltimore Colts are not the Colts.  They don't want us.  We don't want them.  They started the pissing match with Indy, so don't expect us to respect that era of the franchise.

BBS:  Big Blue Shoe, aka Brad Wells, the lead blogger at Stampede Blue

Big Sexy (aka J Whit, aka Jason Whitlock):  Kansas City Star Columnist and Indianapolis native Jason Whitlock.  He hates the Colts, loves Jeff George, the Pacers and Ball State. He writes for foxsports.com, and is basically insane.  Still, he's an Indy boy, so we have his back.

Broad Ripple Tree Service:  Official sponsor (and employer) of 18to88.com.  Also check out Treestuff.com. The Dunlevy family businesses.  Call for an estimate today!

Bob Kravitz (aka Bobby K, Kravy, Uncle Bob): The columnist for the Indianapolis Star. Famously referred to us as weenies in a 2009 column.

Causation/Correlation:  There may be a relationship between two events, but one doesn't necessarily cause the other.  For instance, 100% of teams that kneel in the fourth quarter win games.  Kneeling on the football is NOT a strategy to win games.

CHFF (Cold Hard Football Facts):  Colts hating media whores.  We've done battle many times before, and their loathing of Peyton Manning drives us crazy.  Oh, and DZ sometimes writes for them.

The Curse of Cory Simon:  Simon was the Colts free agent pick up before the 2005 season.  He played one year before his career was ended by chronic fatness.  He then affected the destiny of the next three DTs the Colts tried to bring in, including Booger McFarland (knee), Quinn Pitcock (retired after one year), and Ed Johnson (a case of the munchies).  The Colts also traded for a DT with the Bills, but the deal was rescinded after he failed a physical.

Demond Sanders (aka DS):  The founder of 18to88.com, Luke Dunlevy.  The name honors Bob Sanders.  Demond is his real first name.

Deshawn Zombie (aka DZ):  Nate Dunlevy, co-author of 18to88.com.  The name was originally a joke.  Deshawn sounded like an appropriate name for Demond's brother.  The Zombie part refers to Bob Sanders (see The Zombie below).

Dwight Freeney:  The second most important and third greatest Colt...by far.

DVOA:  Defense-adjusted Value Over Average is the primary statistical tool of the footballoutsiders.  Follow the link for an explanation.

Eyes:  Eyes in the Backfield, a regular pre-game feature

FO: The Football Outsiders run the smartest football site on the web.  18to88 frequently refers to the the site and to their advanced metrics for understanding football.

Gilbert Gardner:  Aka the worst player to wear a Colts uniform.  Linebacker who couldn't figure out how to maintain his gap in the 2006 season.  His benching led to the Colts winning the Super Bowl.

GO FOR IT!: What DZ yells on almost every fourth down.  Going for it on 4th down is a cardinal tenant of 18to88.

Hate:  We hate the New England Patriots.

JC: Our resident Patriots fan.  JC is foul mouthed, crazy offensive, and sort of retarded.  He also has been a regular for more than two years now, so has full immunity to show up and say whatever he wants.  He's a lot of things, but he's not a troll.  He's contributed a lot to the 18to88 community, so don't whine when he says something to piss you off.

J-Holeville:  Jacksonville.  The sorriest city in the NFL.

Johnny O:  The writer of the Indy Football report (IFR).  Friend of 18to88, Johnny O also freelances for Colts.com and is one of the most respected names in blogging.

Kuharsky:  Paul Kuharsky of ESPN's AFC South blog.  I still haven't come up with a good nickname for him (Ku-har?)

"Luck":  18to88 recognizes that there is a lot of randomness in football. Not every game is won or loss on effort, cunning or skill.  "Fumble luck" is the idea that the recovery of a fumble is a random event.  "Return luck" speaks to the fact that TD returns off of turnovers are random events.

Mad Jack:  Jack Del Rio, coach of the Jacksonville Jaguars, who once chopped his kicker's leg off.  More or less.

Marvin Harrison is retired:  Is he?  Do you think we should change the name of our blog to 18to87?  No one has ever suggested that before!  Shut your hole.   Marvin Harrison is the second greatest Colt ever.  We are NEVER CHANGING THE NAME!

Mike Tanier:  Football Outsider, writer of the excellent Walkthrough column and friend of 18to88.

MMQB: Peter King's weekly feature on SI.com, Monday Morning Quarter Back.

MSM:  Main Stream Media

Movies:  Sometimes we review them.  Don't ask why.

Our First Post: Both hilarious and informative, it explains why we talk about sports other than football from time to time.  In the offseason, we refuse to be limited to just the Colts.  Deal with it.

"People are stupid":  Don't tell us what most people think about a subject.  Most people are usually wrong.  Opinions are valid if they are well reasoned or well supported.  We want stats or sound logic.  We care very little about "popular opinion".  Everyone is entitled to their opinion, but everyone is also entitled to be wrong.

Phil B:  Phil B Wilson of the Indianapolis Star. The originally credible Colts blogger.

Pythagorean Wins:  A mathematical formula shown to be more reliable for predicting future results than actual wins and losses.  It is based on points for and and points allowed.

Quarterbacks don't win games: Teams win games, not quarterbacks.  No individual player can be judged by wins and losses.  Teams can.  Coaches can.  GM's can.  Players can't.  QBs get too much credit and too much blame for the outcome of games.

Rolly Polly Bat Out of Hell: Gary Brackett.

Shake:  Long time reader and writer for Stampede Blue, Shakenbake.  His real name is Joe Baker, and he does great work.

Small Sample Size:  The fewer data points, the less reliable the conclusion.  This is the problem with judging players based solely on postseason performance.  There are too few games to reach a credible conclusion.

Sorgi Time:  The fourth preseason game/the final three quarters of the last regular season game.

Sparkle Kitties:  The Jaguars.  They have sparkly helmets for no apparent reason.  Then again, they have a team for no apparent reason too!

Spelling:  DZ sucks at it.  He's basically illerterate.

Star Wars:  It rules, and if you disagree I hate you.  The Empire Strikes Back is the greatest movie ever made, and I won't argue about this with you.

Two for None:  The reason I love it when the Colts lose the toss.  It occurs when one team gets the final possession to end the first half AND the first possession of the second half.  It is is an incredibly dangerous scenario for a defense.

Vandershank:  Mike Vanderjagt the most hated Colt of all time.  Missed two critical kicks in the final moments of playoff games.  Had the temerity to question Manning and Dungy, when he was the one who sucked.

Vic:  Vic Ketchman, writer of "Ask Vic" on Jaguars.com.  Famously declared the Colts to be fools for wasting Peyton Manning's career just a month before they won the Super Bowl.

VY:  Titans QB Vince Young.  File this under V for very very overrated.

Win Probability:  A great stat that tells you the likelihood of your team winning a game at any point in the game.

YPA:  Yards per attempt.  Perhaps the most important stat for evaluating passing efficiency.

The Zombie:  Our nickname for Colts safety Bob Sanders.  Sanders is often injured, but rises from the dead at just the right time and is unstoppable on the field.  Also, he likes to eat brains.

If you run across other phrases you don't understand, just comment here and we'll add them to the list.  Long time readers, please suggest other inside jokes or things that need to be listed here.

Yesterday, BBS over at Stampede Blue asked if the Colts would really have finished 6-10 if they had a different quarterback.  The thought has been echoed by many, most notably Eli Manning in a recent interview.  As always, there is no way to resolve such debates, but the numbers can be of some help.  In reality, the question can only be solved if we define the debate more clearly.  Saying "the Colts would be 6-10 with a different quarterback" requires some clarification.  There are at least three different scenarios that can be considered.

1.  The Colts are so bad, and Peyton Manning is so good that any other quarterback would win only six games with this team.

This statement is impossible to prove conclusively, but I think we can safely say it is false.  Consider the 13 win San Diego Chargers.  According to DVOA, the Colts had a better defense and a better run game by a wide margin.  The Chargers had better special teams play, but only slightly.  I don't think anyone would argue that the Chargers receivers are dramatically better than the Colts, and even if you think Gates is better than Clark, the gap isn't a chasm.  Phillip Rivers led the Chargers to 13  wins with essentially an inferior team.  So, with some certainty, we can agree that Manning is not the ONLY quarterback in football who could have coaxed the Colts into the playoffs.

2.  If the Colts didn't have Peyton Manning, they would win no more than 6 games with Curtis Painter.

Frankly, I'm not sure that's what people mean when they propose the question, but I don't doubt the statement is true.  In fact, I don't think they would win even one game with Curtis Painter.  However, no GM in his right mind would ever enter a season with a 6th round rookie draft pick as his #1 QB option, so if that is the comparison people are making, it's a false one.

3.  With an average quarterback, the Colts would win only 6 games.

This is something we can examine.  For our purposes, we'll look at the Jacksonville Jaguars and the Buffalo Bills.  The Jags played almost an identical schedule to the Colts and won 7 games, but their "expected wins" was only 5.5.  Seriously, the Jags OVERPERFORMED this year.  Wow.

According to DVOA, David Garrard was the most 'average' quarterback in football last year.  In essence, if you switched Garrard for Manning, how would the Colts fare?

Our second team actually won exactly 6 games last year.  The Bills are an odd case because they featured good play at most positions on the field, but had HORRIBLE quarterback play all year.

First, let's look at the three teams defense and Special Teams.  For defenses, a negative DVOA is good, for special teams a positive number is good.

We can plainly see that the Colts were an inferior defensive team to the Bills.  Even given the fact that Indy benched starters for three games and Buffalo plays in the snow (which hurts offense), it's important to note that the Colts defense has the advantage of playing with a good offense that generates better field position for them.  However, Indy did have a better defense than Jacksonville did.

After the defense, we look at the offense.  This is obviously pure conjecture because the quarterback should help or hurt the rest of the offense, but the raw numbers will give us a starting point.  First the running games and offensive lines

Both 6-10 teams had vastly superior running games to Indianapolis, which featured some of the worst run blocking in the league.  The big difference between the teams comes in pass protection.  The Colts had the best adjusted sack rate, and the Bills had the worse with the Jags not far behind.  We know that one of Manning's great strengths is his quick release and ability to avoid sacks.  With Curtis Painter under center (playing with some reserves), the Colts O line had a sack rate of 10.7% which would be the worst in football over a full season.  Again, some of that is on the quarterback.  Those of us who watched the Colts offensive line all season are not at all convinced that it was good.  I'm not saying it was as bad at pass blocking as the Buffalo line, but neither do I buy that it was actually the best pass blocking line in football.  Basically, I think we can safely assume the Colts offensive line and running game was no better than either of these other teams, and quite possibly was considerably worse.

It's difficult to evaluate receivers apart from the quarterback, obviously.  Buffalo did bring in an elite WR in Terrell Owens, but at this point in his career, who can tell if his drop in production was caused by age or the quarterback?  What we can do is try and adjust the number of points the teams scored by the VOA of the quarterbacks. Normally we use DVOA which includes an adjustment for defense, but in this case we want to know how the teams might have fared against the same schedules, so we'll use the unadjusted VOA number. This isn't what VOA is designed for, but it might provide some insight.  The Bills fielded two QBs who played almost the same amount and had almost equally awful VOAs. We'll give them the DVOA for Trent Edwards who was supposed to be the starter going into the season, but in the end it doesn't make a big difference.

Ultimately, this is a bit of a math game, and I admit I'm doing some things with the numbers that perhaps they were not designed for. Still, it gives us an idea about how much Peyton Manning means.  Without him, the 2009 Colts offense was basically the same as the 2009 Jags.  Indy has better skill players at WR and TE, so that would roughly offset the superiority of the Jags run game. The Bills clearly would have been a better team with an average quarterback.

If the Colts had gone into the season with substandard QBs like Fitzpatrick and Edwards, 6-10 would have been a good season.  With a completely average QB (which Garrard is the definition of both statistically and to the naked eye), Indy would have allowed 307 points and scored around 290.  Statistically, that leads to the Colts being between a 7 and 8 win team.

So, this doesn't prove anything, obviously, but it's food for thought.  Ultimately your answer to the question of how many games the Colts would have won without Manning depends on your opinion of the O line as pass blockers and if you think the Colts WRs are better than the run game is bad.  Personally, I think 7 or 8 wins with David Garrard sounds about right. With the Buffalo quarterbacks, 4-5 wins would probably be high.

UPDATE:  The more I think about it, the less I like my methodology.  Let's alter the Adjusted Points graph to reflect the percentage of run/pass play.  Then, I'll adjust the points down based on an average QB for just the passing downs.

Using this system the Colts fare a lot better without Manning than under the last system.  Granted, this isn't perfect either, because we should assume the QBs do aid or suppress the run game.  How bad would the Colts run game be without the threat of Manning going deep?  It's impossible to say.  This is just another lens through which we can view the problem  Under this system, the Colts average about 8.4 wins, so 9-7 would be more reasonable.  Again, it proves nothing, but might be a more accurate way to view the issue.

One of the unique aspects of the Colts is their salary structure.  Indy has a top heavy mentality populated by stars making a lot of money, and young players filling in the gaps.  Obviously, this has been a highly successful strategy, but not one without drawbacks.  The last several playoff losses for the Colts have revealed two things:

1.  A lack of depth at key positions.  There are certain positions on which the Colts place a premium.  At those spots (QB, DE, MLB for example), when Indy suffers an injury there is simply no way to replace the player.  Injuries to Dwight Freeney and Gary Brackett have devastated the Colts' defense in each of the last three years.

2. Poor special teams play.  Special teams is a tricky beast, because it generally doesn't correlate with winning.  Last year for example, only four playoff teams made the top 10 in special teams rankings.  Three of the worst teams in football were in the top 10 (Cle, TB, STL).  So over the course of a season, it's easy to argue that special teams don't matter.  Conversely, many excellent teams have lousy special teams units.  6 of the bottom 10 in special teams finished at least .500.  The Colts were 20th, and the Saints 28th.  It's foolish to try and over develop special teams units.  In any given game, however, they can make a huge difference.  Mike Scifres destroyed the Colts in 2008 with one of the great punting days of all time.  Terrible returns, a botched kick recovery, and a missed field goal cost Indy in the Super Bowl.  The Colts have survived quite well with this system, but it has burned them at inopportune moments.

Today, we are going to look at the Colts' 10 highest paid players (courtesy of Coltscap.net).  This provides real insight into what the Colts' value and where we'll likely see an emphasis in the draft.

1.  Peyton Manning, QB ($19.2 Million)-If he's not your highest paid player, something is wrong.  Irsay's recent statements show that the Colts don't haggle with the big stars.  They just pay them. Manning makes as much as the bottom 44 players on the Colts' roster COMBINED.

2.  Dwight Freeney DE ($13.7)-Again, he is the second most important Colt, and is paid accordingly.  He makes the defense work, as we are all painfully aware. With him, the Colts are formidable on D. Without him at full strength, they allow forced one third down in the second half of the Super Bowl.  Together Manning and Freeney represent just shy of 30% of the Colts currently committed money for the 2010 season.  That percentage will drop as more players are signed, but it still shows the impact on the salary structure at the top.

3.  Reggie Wayne WR ($8.2)-Wayne is the Colts #1 receiver, a locker room leader, and one of the top five wideouts in football.  There's no telling why he had such a rough Super Bowl, but I think we can all forgive him one bad game.  No one will have any beef with Wayne at #3.

4.  Kelvin Hayden CB ($7.86)-Hayden struggled with injuries this year and did not have his best season.  Generally, I'm pro-Hayden, but the argument can be made that he is the player on this list most 'out of position'.  Most that is a factor of being Indy's most recent unrestricted free agent.

5.  Dallas Clark TE ($7.81)-Clark had 100 catches, made the Pro Bowl and is a matchup nightmare.  He is an elite offensive weapon and would be nearly impossible to replace or duplicate.  Without question, he should be one of the top five highly paid Colts.

6.  Don Brown RB ($6.3)*-Brown's rookie deal pays $1.2, $6.3, $1.6, $1.8, $1.9.  Obviously, this year's total is the exception, which is great because there likely won't be a cap. For a more detailed description of how Brown's unique contract works, click here.  Once Brown's signing bonus gets paid, his entire contract is reworked, meaning he falls off this list entirely.  For now, I'm putting him here, but he won't actually be in the top 10 once the technical aspects of his deal are cleared up.

7.  Raheem Brock DT/DE ($5.89)-Brock is valuable and versatile, but I'm not sure he rates this kind of salary.  If this was a capped year, I wouldn't be surprised to see him go.  Indy could save $4.2 million real dollars by letting him go.  I think this is a deal that needs renegotiated.

8.  Robert Mathis DE ($5.81)-Should be in the top 5, and was last year.  His contract is awesome for the team and actually gets cheaper every year.  A Pro Bowl DE is a bargain at under $6 million a year.

9.  Ryan Diem OT ($5)-Diem did not have a great year.  Manning was mostly kept clean, but the Colts were 20th in the league running wide to the right.  Tackle is a premium position, and Diem is being paid premium money, but if he lost his job I wouldn't be shocked.

10.  Jeff Saturday C ($4.4)-Considering that Saturday just signed a new deal, it's amazing that he's not higher up this list.  Still, as important as he is, center is not premium position in the NFL.

The Colts' lone unrestricted free agent of note is Gary Brackett.  Last year, Brackett was the 11th highest paid Colt.  I wouldn't be surprised to see him crack the top 10 if he gets a new deal.

Other Colts of note include Bob Sanders (11th-$4.2), Vinatieri (12th-$3), Lilja (13th $2.4), and Addai (14th $2.2). No other Colt makes more than $2 million per season.

It's the offseason, so stuff that would normally show up in the Links gets shoved to the front page.

Today, take some time and be sure to read Mike Tanier's Walkthrough.  Consistently the single best weekly NFL feature not featuring the number 18, Tanier's piece this week focus on the Colts Achilies Heel...the Special Teams.  Later he addresses Colts' fans directly.

The return game was also a problem in 2008, when the Colts ranked 28th in the league in kick returns and last in punt returns. They were 22nd in kick returns in 2007, and while they were sixth in punt returns that year, a 90-yard touchdown had a disproportionate effect on their average because they returned just 25 punts all season. Remove it, and their average drops from 11.2 to 7.9, which is still pretty good by the Colts standards. Rushing and others also call for a high number of fair catches, which don't appear in the return averages.

The Colts can live with weak return units because their offense is incredible. But imagine if they took back a few precious yards of field position. The average Colts drive in 2009 started on the 27.0-yard line, the third-worst field position in the league. (The Raiders and Titans wore worse). The league median is 29.5, two-and-a-half yards away. Give Peyton Manning 2.5 more yards, and short field goals become touchdowns, while punts from midfield become field goals.

In other words, if the Colts can keep everything else equal while quickly upgrading their return game, they will return to the Super Bowl next year, and probably win it.

...

You have the power to decide what you will find satisfying or intolerable. The more things you find satisfying, the more satisfied you'll be. It's a pretty simple concept. It applies to everything: your career, your neighborhood, your marriage, and your fan experience.

If only a Super Bowl win will satisfy you, you will be dissatisfied, on average, by 96.875 percent of all your team's seasons. If that Super Bowl only brings you fleeting joy, you are in bad shape, because it may be the only one you will experience in your lifetime. If you can find the joy in other accomplishments -- a Super Bowl loss, a 13-3 season, an ordinary win on an ordinary Sunday -- then your fan experience will be much more rewarding. If you cannot, that's your prerogative

In the past two years, we've gotten Lost in a galaxy far, far away, as we've tried to predict the twists and turns of the NFL season.  This year, we aren't playing around any more.  We are here to crack some skulls and bring swift justice to the NFL.  That's right, we are looking for a dark tone this year.  With that, we give you the NFL in 2009...Batman style.

UPDATE:  Looking back over this season, I'd say we did pretty well.  Can you tell which conference we actually follow?

Prediction	AFC East		Batman Character	Result	Comment
Patriots 13-3			Clooney Batman: Looked like the hero, but the nipply batsuit was creepy and evil.		10-6 Seriously underperformed expectations.  Health of franchise in doubt.
Bills 7-9			Killer Croc: A classic case of alligator arms.		6-10 Doomed to live in the sewer
Dolphins 6-10			Mr. Freeze: Scares no one, but we can't stop staring at it.		7-9 Defense needed thawed out
Jets 4-12			Young Bruce Wayne: Too inexperienced to hurt the real villains yet		9-7 Batman Begins You couldn't ask for a better start to a franchise reboot.
Prediction	AFC North		Batman Character
Steelers 11-5			Keaton Batman: Hard to argue with the success, but that doesn't mean we have to like it.		9-7 A little overrated.
Ravens 10-6			The Joker: Crazy is written all over his face.		9-7 Turned upside down, but still kicking
Bengals 6-10			The Scarecrow: Equal parts disturbing and hilarious.		10-6 The Scarecrow (Batman Begins): Not my choice for an ideal foe, but it worked out, I suppose.
Browns 5-11			Chirs O'Donnel Robin: Sexy is not the same as talented		5-11 A once promising career, now destined for second string roles
Prediction	AFC South		Batman Character
Colts 12-4			The Dark Knight: The hero we deserve and the hero we need.		14-2 He'll take the blame...even though it's not his fault.
Texans 10-6			Poison Ivy (BTAS): Hard to resist the temptation		9-7 Get in bed with them, and you'll get a rash
Titans 9-7			Bane: Worthy enemy known mostly for his physical prowess.		8-8 Will pound on you, but if you are smart you can beat them.
Jaguars 6-10			Cat woman: No one goes to see them.  Destined to get screwed by Batman		7-9 P--sy
Prediction	AFC West		Batman Character
Chargers 14-2			Commissioner Gordon: Good at his job, but not nearly as interesting as Batman		13-3 Second fiddle.
Chiefs 9-7			Harley Quinn: Not as brilliant as the originally criminally insane clown.		4-12 Heist Henchmen Getting offed early
Raiders 5-11			Alfred (Batman and Robin): Old man who keeps on helping out Batman.  Frankly, the relationship disturbs me.		5-11 Die already.
Broncos 4-12			Two Face (Batman Forever): A disaster from the moment we laid eyes on it.		8-8 First they're good, then evil, finally pathetic.
Prediction	NFC East		Batman Character
Giants 11-5			Mr. and Mrs. Wayne: Tragically gunned down. The survivor never recovered.		8-8 Dead before the second act
Eagles 11-5			Manbat: The victim of a lame experiment gone horribly wrong		11-5 Got more attention than they deserved
Cowboys 7-9			The Mad Hatter: Believes he is the protagonist of the story, but can't nail the ending.		11-5 Stately Wayne Manor: Over the top, but functional
Redskins 6-10			The Ventriloquist: No matter whose lips are moving, we know who is pulling the strings		4-12 Gums flapping, but no one is listening.
Prediction	NFC North		Batman Character
Bears 12-4			Clayface: Remarkably transformed, strong and adaptable		7-9 Owlman Throwing to the wrong team
Vikings 8-8			Batman (Adam West): Old and dated.  Lingering scent of cheese		12-4 Old Bruce Wayne: Don't mess with this dude.  He may be gone, but you know he's coming back.
Packers 7-9			Bruce Wayne: Batman without the hero complex		11-5 Silver Age Batman: Classic hero type
Lions 6-10			Penguin (Batman Returns): Disgusting...if you bother to watch		2-14 Still smells fishy
Prediction	NFC South		Batman Character
Saints 10-6			Batman Squirt Gun: Truly frightening weapon.  We aren't sure what it is good for.		13-3 Grappling Gun: Multi-use weapon saves the day in inventive and unexpected ways.
Panthers 7-9			The Henchmen: Interchangeable parts deliver a beating, but won't ensure victory.		8-8 Cause a little chaos, but lack a competent point man.
Falcons 6-10			Robin: Young.  Seemed like a good idea at the time, but gets worse as things move along.		9-7 Heading in the wrong direction
Bucs 5-11			The Riddler (TV): A lot more questions than answers		3-13 Has a screw loose upstairs
Prediction	NFC West		Batman Character
Seahawks 10-6			Old Batman (The Dark Knight Returns): He's back...but he's showing his age.		5-11 Lego Batman Broken into little pieces
Rams 8-8			Nicole Kidman as Chase Meridan: Totally out of place on this list.  Not at all where you would expect to find them.		1-15 Alicia Grissom: uuuugly
Cardinals 6-10			Rachel Dawes: Rises from mediocrity only to die a painful death		10-6 Vickie Vale: Hotter than I gave them credit for
49ers 5-11			Batgirl: A thinly veiled excuse to dress up in tights		8-8 Barbara Gordon: Pretty useful from time to time.

It's Gonna Happen

We at 18to88.com are nothing if not accountable.  Here is a our recap of our famous preseason predictions.

Every year, we here at 18to88.com pride ourselves at making the boldest and most accurate predictions available on the internet.  Our track record is unassailable.  Our foresight boggles the mind and causes our readers to wonder at what mystic fount of insight we have tapped into. As you can see from past seasons, our abilities are stunning.

That's what we hope to write next year, anyway.  Submitted for your approval, 18 Bold Visions for 2009...

7.  The giant scoreboard in Texas stadium is removed after it affects the kicking game too much.

What the hell were they thinking?

Verdict:

It's a bingo.  Easiest call on the board.

Out of habit, Bill Polian immediately releases him even though his contract isn't up.

Verdict:

This one isn't on me.  Session deserved that nod.  He was awesome all year.