Welcome to "What to Expect 2013". For the next week or so, I'll be looking at the positions the Colts drafted relative to their historic counterparts.

The goal of this series is to set reasonable expectations for the new draft picks based how similarly drafted players in the past decade performed.

This allows us to create fair baselines by which to judge players. The purpose of this series is not to predict performance. The goal is merely to fairly judge rookie seasons.

In the sixth round, the Colts took safety John Boyett out of Oregon. Boyett is coming off of a serious injury, having had surgery on both patellar tendons. His status for the season is still unclear.

For the purposes of this study, we'll assume he's healthy and ready to play, though obviously, the Colts took him knowing he may need time to heal.

For this evening edition of the Colts Notebook, we'll be taking a look at a couple intriguing draft picks, Hugh Thornton, and John Boyett, whom Chuck Pagano colorfully described last week as a "buzz saw." 

Chris Morrison - USA Today Sports

John Boyett

6^th round safety John Boyett, who used to play alongside Eric Dungy at Oregon, represents another low risk, late round gamble by the Colts front office.  In rounds 4-7, teams often take chances on small school guys, players with maturity issues or bad measurables, and guys whose draft stock has plummeted due to injury.  In Boyett’s case, it was the latter. 

A star on Oregon’s defense, Boyett had a brilliant 2011 campaign, despite playing on two bad knees.  Then, just a game into last season, he decided to have the surgery he needed and repair the torn patellar tendons in his knees.

LB Jerrell Freeman was one of Grigson's great finds in 2012. [Kim Klement- USA TODAY]The Colts' turnaround from 2011's horrific 2-14 performance to their 11-win playoff season in 2012 was one of historical proportions. The rarity of something like that happening, not only the record turnaround but the complete roster overhaul as well.

While the superhuman play of rookie quarterback Andrew Luck was the biggest contributor to the Colts' unreal turnaround, a huge standing ovation goes out to general manager Ryan Grigson as well.

Any regular reader of mind knows that I'm not afraid to criticize Grigson (or Pagano, Irsay, or any other Colt) when I disagree with a move, especially if it's a very strong opinion of mine. And there have been some moves I disagreed with this offseason, whether that was overpaying for Erik Walden in free agency or drafting Khaled Holmes in the NFL draft. 

But let me be clear: the job Grigson has done in rebuilding this franchise has been fantastic. He's done many things very well since his hiring last January. In honor of that, and in the shadow of a tumultuous 2013 offseason, let's recap the five best moves from Grigson in his first season in Indianapolis. 

Welcome to "What to Expect 2013". For the next week or so, I'll be looking at the positions the Colts drafted relative to their historic counterparts.

The goal of this series is to set reasonable expectations for the new draft picks based how similarly drafted players in the past decade performed.

This allows us to create fair baselines by which to judge players. The purpose of this series is not to predict performance. The goal is merely to fairly judge rookie seasons

The Colts drafted UT-Martin defensive tackle Montori Hughes in the fifth round. They traded a 2014 fourth-round pick for the rights to select him.

As I'm sure you all know by now, the Indianapolis Colts selected Florida State defensive end Bjoern Werner in the first round of the 2013 NFL Draft on Thursday night.

Having allowed Dwight Freeney to leave in Free Agency, the team was crying out for a pass rusher - even after the frivolous signing of Green Bay's Erik Walden and the addition of Lawrence Sidbury from the Atlanta Falcons.

Regardless of the need for some edge rushing help, I was fairly surprised when Roger Goodell announced that Bjoern Werner was the 24th pick of the draft, and was heading to Indianapolis. When evaluating Werner before the draft, I had strong concerns over his ability to play anything other than 4-3 defensive end. Whilst at Florida State, Werner mostly played with his hand in the dirt, making his fit in Chuck Pagano's 3-4 defense slightly obscure.

However, GM Ryan Grigson and Pagano himself put Werner through a workout, including linebacker drop drills. They came away suitably impressed, and felt comfortable enough to draft him to play the SAM linebacker position, or even the WILL position if/when Robert Mathis leaves the team.

Today’s Colts notebook is a veritable grab bag of football quotes.  We’ll discuss everything from team chemistry to Jason Collins and the NFL’s proposed HGH testing.  We should be able to return to the subject of the newly drafted rookies tomorrow. 

Building Chemistry

It is early in the NFL year.  The men who play football for a living are getting back into the grind, back to the structured world of the NFL, back to 10-11 hour workdays and a job in which their best and worst moments are on full display on Sundays.  But how do they feel about these early workouts and meetings, nearly three months before Training Camp?  “I would say this is very critical,” said OLB Robert Mathis. “It builds a team’s chemistry.  Also, it’s very important getting to know the type of team you have. We have the majority of the guys here and it’s beneficial to our success.”

An Athletic Big Man, Who Moves “like a Cat”

Montori Hughes is a big man.  6-4, 330 pounds, or 340 according to Ryan Grigson.  Perhaps it is fitting that his surname sounds just a little bit like “Huge.”  No doubt his size and strength were very appealing traits when the Colts decided to a leap of faith on him. 

One thing many people would not expect, especially for a third day draft pick, is that Hughes is relatively agile for such a large guy.  So enamored was Ryan Grigson that he and his staff decided to trade back into the 5^th round (giving up a 2014 4^th round pick) and nab Hughes before anyone else could take him. 

“He’s 6-4 and change, 340 pounds, and he can move like a cat,” Grigson said of Hughes. “There are just very few human beings that have that ability. In this defense and he played all three spots at Tennessee Martin. He was a big recruit at Tennessee.

The 2013 NFL Draft is in the books! Join Colts Authority Radio tonight at 8pm ET as we break down the biggest news from the weekend's festivities. We'll also give you our opinions on all of the Colts moves!

Sheppard was a starter in Buffalo, but didn't fit the scheme. [Steve Mitchell-USA TODAY]The Indianapolis Colts traded former 1st-round pick to the Buffalo Bills for 2011 3rd-round pick Kelvin Sheppard, per a team release this afternoon. Hughes, drafted in the 1st round of the 2010 draft, will be remembered by Colts fans for failing to live up to expectations. 

The Colts drafted Hughes in hopes of being able to use him to sustain their vital pass rush when then starters DEs Dwight Freeney and Robert Mathis needed a breather or were out due to injuries. After the firing of GM Bill Polian and HC Jim Caldwell, there was renewed hope that Hughes might thrive under the new 3-4 scheme of HC Chuck Pagano. Though advanced stats suggested Hughes was performing better than his numbers indicated, in the end, it just wasn't enough. Hughes leaves the Colts have amassed only 62 tackles and 5.0 sacks in his 3-year career.

In exchange for Hughes, the Colts received former LSU LB Kelvin Sheppard. Though both players are listed as LBers, it won't be a straight position-for-position swap, as Sheppard is an ILB and will provide depth behind the trio of Kavell Conner, Jerrell Freeman, and Pat Angerer. Sheppard has 150 tackles and 2.0 sacks in his 2-year career.

Here is what GM Ryan Grigson had to say about the trade,

“We wish nothing but the best for Jerry in Buffalo,” said General Manager Ryan Grigson. “He’s a talented guy that did everything we asked of him. At the same time, we are very pleased to be getting a young linebacker who has been a productive starter in this league.”

Brad Penner-USA TODAY

Those pundits releasing draft grades before a single member of the draft class has taken a professional snap are a bit ridiculous. Still the allure of their pontifications is too much to pass up and so I've wasted hours on this nonsense. 

While attempting to reconcile my own misspent time it occurred to me that there must be a reason we all love draft grades so much. After all, they insist on issuing their grades each year and as each draft class passes the number of pundits doing so multiplies. At some point there were more draft grades than picks, each opinion more pointed and perhaps less informed. Imagine being one of these young men reading about their perceived value as imagined by Mel Kiper or Todd McShay.

Why must we pass judgment immediately following a draft? Why are we so enamored by the potential without much fact to base our judgments upon? Who would win a draft pundit beat down?

No matter the reason let's breakdown the breakdowns and pass our own judgment on the pundits.