All week, I'll be running a "What to Expect" series.  (Hughes, Angerer, Thomas, McClendon, Eldrige,  Matthews) The goal of this series is to create realistic expectations for the Colts draft picks based on historical performance from similar players.  Too often fans think of young players as 'busts' if they don't produce their rookie years, when the reality is that most rookies don't produce right away.

Indy's second 7th round pick was Kavell Conner a linebacker taken with the 240th pick.  Like the Pat Angerer post, we'll look at the Colts' Tampa 2 backers, followed by a look at all 7th round linebackers taken in the NFL for the past 5 years.

Tampa 2 Colts Linebackers:

	Pick	Games	Starts	tackles	INT/FF	Sacks
Wheeler	93	16	0	2	0	0
Keiaho	94	14	0	16	2	0
Gardner	69	11	0	9	0	0
Hagler	173	9	0	3	0	0
Thornton	106	15	0	36	0	0
June	198	11	0	6	0	0
Brackett	N/D	16	0	27	1	1
Session	136	13	1	19	3	0
LaCasse*	219	12	0	5	0	0

*LaCasse was drafted by Baltimore, but only played for Indy

Underline this in your mind:

Colts' linebackers don't start their rookie years.

This list is a nice mix of awful players (Gardner), solid players (Hagler), and good players (Brackett and Session).  What you do see is that the pretty good ones made a few more plays on special teams than the average ones, but none of them played very much at all.

All 7th round Linebackers since 2005

	Pick	Games	Starts	Tackles	INT/FF	Sacks
Oscar Lua	211	0	0	0	0	0
J.D. Folsom	214	2	0	0	0	0
Larry Grant*	214	2	0	0	0	0
Zach Diles	218	11	0	13	0	0
Kelvin Smith	219	4	0	0	0	0
Marvin Mitchell	220	10	0	8	0	0
Hilee Taylor	221	10	0	4	0	1
Tim MacGarigle	221	12	0	6	0	0
Moise Fokou	230	16	4	16	0	0
Alex Hall	231	16	2	18	2	3
Mike Smith	234	6	0	3	0	0
Cornelius Wortham	235	8	0	2	0	0
Brandon Siler	240	15	0	21	0	0
Charles Bennet	241	3	0	1	0	0
Angelo Craig	244	0	0	0	0	0
Anthony Cannon	247	12	0	7	0	0
Kevin Simon	250	0	0	0	0	0
Chad Nkang	251	16	0	15	0	0
David Bergeron	252	0	0	0	0	0
David Vorora	252	8	1	5	0	0

Note: Grant played for a team other than the one that drafted him.

7th round linebackers are the NFL equivalent of cannon fodder.  You draft them to play on special teams.  Only one (Alex Hall) had any kind of impact other than a hand full of tackles.  Of the 20, 4 never played at all, 4 made the roster for 15 or 16 games.  Half of them weren't on the roster for even half the games.  It's clear that linebackers taken this late in the draft don't see the field much.

What to Expect:

If Conner makes the team, that's a big step.  If he sees the field in half the games, that's a massive accomplishment.  I wouldn't expect anymore than 10-15 tackles from him.  Life as an NFL special teams player is rough.  The Colts took him and will ask him to voluntarily slam his body into a wall of giant men.

Doesn't sound like fun to me.

Conclusion:

Expect:

• Time on the practice squad
• A hand full of games on special teams
• 10 tackles

Anything more than that would be excellent.

 

All week, I'll be running a "What to Expect" series.  (Hughes, Angerer, Thomas, McClendon, Eldrige) The goal of this series is to create realistic expectations for the Colts draft picks based on historical performance from similar players.  Too often fans think of young players as 'busts' if they don't produce their rookie years, when the reality is that most rookies don't produce right away.

Ricardo Matthews was the Colts first 7th round pick at pick 238.  Let's compare him with other Colts rookie DTs since 2002. Then I'll show all DTs taken in the 7th round since 2005.

Colts' DTs since 2002

	Pick	Games	Starts	Tackles	Sacks
Tripplett	42	13	10	18	0
Moala	56	10	1	4	0
Pitcock	98	9	1	14	1.5
Terrance Taylor	136	0	0	0	0
Pugh	182	4	1	0	0
Dawson	242	16	4	17	1
Eric Foster	UDFA	13	11	28	0
Ed Johnson	UDFA	16	16	28	1
Antonio Johnson	UDFA	8	4	11	0

Notes: Antonio Johnson was a midseason pickup from the Titans practice squad.  Dawson also played end.

Wow, that's a short list.  It doesn't necessarily reveal much other than it's hard to expect much impact from rookie DTs.  It's easy to see why we were so high on Ed Johnson and Quinn Pitcock after their rookie years.

7th Round DTs since 2005

	Pick	Games	Starts	Tackles	Sacks
Rick Jean-Francois	244	0	0	0	0
Darryl Richard	234	0	0	0	0
Jimmy Verdon	232	4	0	0	0
Kevin Vickerson	216	4	0	1	0
Keyonta Marshall	247	1	0	0	0
Rodrique Wright	226	13	9	28	1.5
Chase Page*	225	6	0	0	0
Fred Evans	212	1	0	0	0
Landon Cohen	216	6	0	2	0
Lionel Dotson	245	2	0	1	0

Note: Page played for a team other than the one that drafted him.

Want to make an impact in the NFL as a DT?  Don't get drafted in the 7th round.  Though only two of the ten players taken got cut out of camp,  only one of the ten made the roster for half the season.  The most the average 7th round DT can hope for is a few game checks and a practice squad spot.

What to Expect:

Hope he makes the team.  Matthews has a chance to make the team because the Colts have a stock pile of guys exactly like him.  That is to say, they have lots of young players who have to stay hungry and have yet to fully establish themselves in the NFL.  Muir, Mookie Johnson, Moala, and Foster make up the probable bulk of the snaps, but if Matthews comes in and competes hard, maybe he makes the squad or at least hangs on in the practice squad.

Even if he does, it's unlikely he'll post more than 15 tackles.

Conclusion:

This is a good pick if:

• He makes the team or the practice squad
• He plays in 6-8 games
• He posts 10 tackles

Nothing beyond that is realistic, and honestly, even that much production would be more than enough to validate the pick.

All week, I'll be running a "What to Expect" series.  (Hughes, Angerer, Thomas, McClendon) The goal of this series is to create realistic expectations for the Colts draft picks based on historical performance from similar players.  Too often fans think of young players as 'busts' if they don't produce their rookie years, when the reality is that most rookies don't produce right away.

The Colts made a popular fan pick at 162 with TE Brody Eldrige.  Eldrige is a big block first TE/Fullback type.  Because Eldrige was drafted with a very specific skill set in mind, we aren't going to evaluate his contributions in quite the same way as other TEs.  First, we will examine all the tight ends taken by the Colts since 1998.  However, we'll also examine all the seasons of the various players to fill the fullback roll for the Colts.  Guys like Jim Finn, Reid, Klecko, and Eric Foster have chipped in with the offense from time to time.  Finally, we'll look at the production from all TEs taken from 145-175 since 2005.

Colts TE since 1998

	Games	Starts	Catches	Yards	TDs
Clark	10	10	29	340	1
Hartsock	16	3	4	33	0
Tamme	12	0	3	12	0
Santi	6	2	10	64	1
Fletcher	16	12	18	202	3
Robinson	15	14	19	166	0
Utech	12	2	3	59	2

Note: Fletcher was taken 210th by the Bears in 2002.  His rookie year was 2005 with the Colts.

I'm not convinced this chart is particularly helpful because the Colts clearly want Eldrige for his blocking.  Still, there are things we can learn.  First, if the Colts draft a tight end, he makes the roster, and he plays.  Second, the Colts had two TEs who were brought in primarily to block.  Both Utech and Robinson were undrafted, but expected to come in and provide blocking help.  Robinson actually caught quite a few passes.  Utech did not, but managed to score two touchdowns on his three grabs.

Colts FB since 1998

	Games	Carries	Yards	Receptions	Yards	Total TDs
Finn 00	16	1	1	4	13	1
Finn 01	15	0	0	0	0	0
Finn 02	12	5	8	6	31	0
Klecko 06	10	0	0	1	2	1

Note: There have been other players who have played fullback for the Colts, but as far as I can tell these are the only two players to post any measurable stats.

So if Edridge does play any fullback next year, it's unlikely that he'll actually get more than one carry or a couple of catches from the position.  Even when the Colts do use a full back he rarely touches the ball. However, Eldrige would conceivably be more skilled with the ball than some of the defensive players the Colts have used in the position.

All TEs taken between 145-180 since 2005

 

	Pick	Games	Starts	Catches	Yards	TDs
Jerome Collins	144	3	0	0	0	0
Davon Drew	149	0	0	0	0	0
Jason Pociask	150	4	0	1	7	0
James Casey	152	15	0	6	64	0
Cornelius Ingram	153	0	0	0	0	0
Kevin Boss	153	13	2	9	118	2
Jeff King	155	12	0	1	1	1
Dante Rosario	155	16	2	6	108	2
Kellen Davis	158	16	0	0	0	0
John Nalbone	161	0	0	0	0	0
Brent Celek	162	16	4	16	178	1
Quinn Sypniewski	166	16	3	2	15	0
Charles Davis	167	0	0	0	0	0
Bo Scaife	179	16	5	37	273	2
Zach Miller	180	14	0	21	212	2

Tight ends do much better at making squads even at this late stage of the draft than many of the other positions we've looked at.  More than half of them were active for at least 12 games in their rookie seasons.  What they didn't do was catch the ball.  Only three of them caught at least ten passes.  It's safe to think that Eldrige won't join them.

What to Expect

With Wayne, Clark, Gonzo, Garcon, Collie, Addai and Brown all begging for the ball, it's safe to assume Brody Eldrige won't be seeing too many throws go his way.  The good news is that none of us expect him to get the ball much.  Given the bevy of weapons at Manning's disposal, we should expect Eldrige to get between 5-10 catches for 50-70 yards, 1 completely gratuitous carry and a touchdown.  None of that matters, however.

What we really need to see from Eldrige is for him to play in short yardage.  If when the Colts need to pick up a key 3rd and one, Eldrige is on the line or in the backfield, and the Colts do a solid job converting, we'll all be pleased.  It really doesn't matter if he catches any passes at all this season.  He was drafted to block.

Gijon Robinson was brought in a couple of years ago to fulfill the same role.  Robinson actually contributed more in the passing game than what anyone expected, but when it came down to the big third and 1 in San Diego, he had the most massive blocking fail of the decade by a Colt.  I'd have traded his 19 catches for one good block on Dobbins in a heartbeat.

I think the Colts would too, and that's why Eldrige is here.

Conclusion:

From Brody Eldrige, expect:

• 16 games played
• Good blocking in short yardage
• Fewer than 10 total touches.

All week, I'll be running a "What to Expect" series.  (Hughes, Angerer, Thomas)The goal of this series is to create realistic expectations for the Colts draft picks based on historical performance from similar players.  Too often fans think of young players as 'busts' if they don't produce their rookie years, when the reality is that most rookies don't produce right away.

Jaques McClendon was taken in the fourth round, 129th overall.  The big guard was not on most media radar screens, and was considered a reach for the Colts.  Bill Polian openly compared him to other Colts guards like Jake Scott.  For our purposes, we'll compare him to all Colts interior linemen taken since 1998.  We'll also compare him to all interior linemen taken in the NFL between picks 115 and 145 from 2005-2008.

Colts Linemen

	Pick	Games	Starts
Pollack	59	13	13
Burlsworth*	63	0	0
McKinney	93	16	16
Sciullo	122	13	13
Gandy	129	16	2
Johnson	138	0	0
Scott	141	12	9
Toudouze	162	4	0
Hunt	165	0	0
Taylor	190	0	0
C. Johnson	199	16	1
Justice	201	8	1
DeMulling	220	7	0
Richard	236	15	7
Jeff Saturday	UDFA	11	2

*Burslworth died in a tragic accident shortly after the draft.  Out of respect, I'm listing him, though not including him in the player count.

Unlike at the linebacker spot, the Colts have no problem letting rookies start at guard.  Nine of the 14 players on the list started a game their rookie year. Five of the 14 started at least 7 games. Compare that with only three players who failed to make the team.  When the Colts draft a lineman, they expect him to play immediately.  Even players who had comparatively brief careers with the team still managed to get starts their rookie year.  If you are a guard for the Colts, you had better be ready to play.  If you can't, they'll replace you quickly.

All NFL Interior Linemen Taken Between 110-150 from 2005-2009

Note:  Some players' actual position was obscure.  When in doubt, I left the player in the pool.

	Pick	Games	Starts
Elton Brown	111	9	9
Isaac Sowells	112	1	0
Duke Preston	112	15	1
Leroy Harris	115	5	0
Manuel Ramirez	117	1	0
Eric Ghiaciuc	119	5	1
Rich Ohrnberger	123	0	0
Mansfield Wrotto	124	0	0
Jason Brown	124	6	1
Todd Herremans	126	4	4
Rob Sims	128	14	3
Josh Beekman	130	1	0
Willie Colon	131	2	2
Seth Olsen	132	0	0
Tyronne Green	133	0	0
Josh Sitton	135	11	2
Dustin Fry	139	4	0
Quinn Ojinnaka	139	11	0
Brad Butler	143	2	0
Junius Coston	143	1	0
Uche Nwaneri	149	9	1
Daniel Loper	150	8	0

Wow, so the Colts are the odd balls. Imagine that.  Interior linemen drafted in this area are more likely NOT to make the team (4 players) than to start even three games in their rookie year (3 players).  Indy's philosophy is different than everyone else's.  That's important to remember when you hear that a certain player wasn't well regarded by most scouts.  It's clear that Indy is looking at different things than most clubs.  Of this list, only Elton Brown (selected half a round higher than McClendon) broke into the starting lineup consistently in his rookie year.

What to Expect

If this was any team but Indy, I'd say, "Expect McClendon to sit".  However, history tells us that the Colts will start the five best linemen.  Polian calls it, "Throwing them in the pot to see what comes out".  The Colts don't worry too much about position, but expect everyone to play everywhere.  If Bill Polian didn't think McClendon had a fighting chance to start, he wouldn't have picked  him.  McClendon is big, crazy strong, and super smart.  All of that speaks well for his chances.

However, even if he doesn't start his rookie year, that doesn't mean he's a bust.  Several good, multi year starters (including Jeff Saturday), didn't start much their rookie years.  What we need to see from McClendon is that he makes the team and is largely active from week to week.  Even if he is just doing backup duty, staying available as one the top 7 or 8 linemen overall would be a nice accomplishment for a guy not invited to the Scouting Combine.

Conclusions

For McClendon, expect:

• For him to make the team
• For him to be active for double digit games
• 2-3 starts

Anything more than that, and it's a great pick.  Anything less than making the team with 6-8 appearances would be disappointing.  For the NFL in general a few apperances would make it a successful pick, but the Colts' standards for mid-round linemen are much higher than normal.

Here's a scouting report of Kevin Thomas from reader Jesse Nocon:

I would like to share my opinion of a pick that was called a reach by many in the sports media. However, I think that pick number 94, Kevin Thomas CB out of USC, was at the player's value. While the majority of the amateur scouting is through online film clips, as a student at USC, I have the opportunity to watch every USC football home game live and in person. Therefore, I feel like I have a better understanding of USC players than any other school.

As a football player, Kevin Thomas has good athletic ability and plays as fast as his 4.48 combine forty suggests. He plays with explosion and a competitive edge, delivering more big hits than expected from a corner. His is more long than tall, but at 6'0'' is not short. I do not personally know Kevin, but I have only heard good things about him in and out of the classroom at USC (which is not the case for all football players). He has all the tools to contribute immediately on special teams.

As a cornerback, Kevin Thomas has the necessary attributes to be a solid starting corner in the NFL, and at worst play the increasingly important nickel corner. Thomas has the field speed to not get beat deep, an explosive first step out of his break and a physicality that many corners lack. He was often used at USC in blitz packages and delivered punishing hits on the quarterbacks he sacked. While not always consistent in open field tackling, he is willing to hit and does not shy away from contact.

I think Thomas is better in man to man than zone. He can play both press and off man, using his length to jam and his athletic ability to run with receivers. In zone, he often showed the ability to break on a player, make a tackle and prevent the big play. I believe he has the ability to break on the ball and create interceptions as well, but has not showcased it on a consistent basis. The majority of offenses attacked the USC zone in 2009 with short underneath passes over the middle, exploiting an inexperienced linebacking core and avoiding solid DB's like Thomas.  I think this is the reason, and not some inadequacy on Thomas' part, that accounts for the lack of interceptions in his senior season. Furthermore, as a nickel corner in 2008, he had 3 INT's, which is good production. Thomas is well-coached and held his own on USC defenses that have created multiple NFL starters and a defensive rookie of the year.

I think Thomas was considered a reach by many for his lack of big plays (int's) and durability concerns. However, as long as he checked out medically, I think Thomas is at least as talented as Brandon Ghee, a corner taken only a few picks later. Thomas is exactly what teams should look for in the third round. He has the size, speed, athleticism and physicality to be successful at the NFL.

It seems to me that his lack of interceptions and overall average production are his two major weaknesses when he is on the field. However, because of the way teams attacked USC's 2009 defense, Thomas did not have the opportunity to make such plays. Thomas is similar to another recently drafted USC corner, Terrell Thomas of the NY Giants. They are of almost identical size, with nearly identical combine performances. Terrell Thomas was drafted in the late second, and had five interceptions as well as almost 90 tackles in his second NFL season. Both show great athleticism and physicality. Both have the same strengths. However, Terrell Thomas produced more interception wise than Kevin Thomas at the collegiate level and therefore was drafted higher.

The Colts got what I believe could be a starting NFL corner as soon as his second year, just like Terrell Thomas for the Giants.

That's certianly an encouraging report.  Thanks to Jesse Nocon for his thoughts and nice write up.

All week, I'll be running a "What to Expect" series.  The goal of this series is to create realistic expectations for the Colts draft picks based on historical performance from similar players.  Too often fans think of young players as 'busts' if they don't produce their rookie years, when the reality is that most rookies don't produce right away.

Kevin Thomas from USC was the Colts third round pick.  The corner enters a good situation considering the Colts only have three other real CBs.  Of course, all three are strong players.  For a look at how we can expect Thomas to fare his rookie year, first I'll consider the 12 corners the Colts have taken since 2002 (when the cover-2 was installed).  Then I'll examine all corners selected between picks number 80-110 since 2005 by any team in the NFL.

Colts Corners Taken since 2002

	Pick	Games	Starts	Passes Defended	Tackles	Interceptions
Jackson	29	15	1	4	43	1
Hayden	60	16	0	1	18	0
Jennings	62	11	0	0	7	0
Jefferson	74	14	0	0	1	0
Strickland	90	11	8	3	33	2
Powers	92	12	12	10	55	1
Hughes	95	10	0	2	14	0
David	125	16	11	15	48	4
Condren	131	8	0	0	3	0
Coe	173	6	0	1	8	0
Hutchins	173	16	1	2	32	1
Lewis	183	0	0	0	0	0
Lacey	UDFA	16	9	13	63	3

This is a fascinating list.  The Colts love to draft corners, so we have a nice cross section of players.  First off all, it's impressive to note that despite taking 12 corners in 8 seasons, 11 made the team.  Thomas was the 94th overall pick, and the Colts have three other players on this list in almost that same slot.

Jacob Lacey's, Jerraud Powers' and Jason David's rookie seasons immediately jump off the page.  All became primary starters right away and made big contributions.  Lacey led this list in tackles; David had as many picks his rookie year as the other 11 drafted Colts combined.

We also see guys who became good and important players not see much action their rookie year.  Jackson and Hayden did not start despite their high draft status.  Both grew to be good corners.  It's important to remember that when considering Thomas, who steps in as a nickle back at best, and probably a dime.  There's also the case of Donald Strickland who played a lot his rookie year, and was gone one season later (though he's still bouncing around the league to his credit).

NFL Corners taken between 80-110 since 2005

(note: I tried to take just corners, but many safties are listed as DBs as well. If I was in doubt, I left the player in.  Some players played only as kick returners.  They are labled KR.  Also note that I excluded the players the Colts drafted (like Powers) from this list)

	Pick	Games	Starts	Passes Defended	Tackles	Interceptions	Sacks
Kevin Barnes	80	4	0	0	2	0	0
Dustin Fox*	80	1	0	0	0	0	0
Johnathan Wade	84	16	1	1	23	1	0
Ellis Hobbs	84	16	8	12	35	3	0
Tom Zbikowski	86	16	0	0	1	0	0
David Pitman	87	7	1	3	9	2	0
Scott Starks	87	16	0	2	11	0	0
Lardarius Webb	88	14	4	6	29	0	1
Christopher Owens	90	16	6	2	21	2	0
Ryan Mouton	94	14	2	0	9	0	0
Rashad Johnson	95	10	1	1	17	0	0
Keenan Lewis	96	4	0	0	0	0	0
Domonique Foxworth	97	16	7	16	65	2	0
King	101	0	0	0	0	0	0
Darnell Bing	101	0	0	0	0	0	0
Donald Washington	102	8	0	0	3	0	0
Antonio Perkins (KR)	103	1	0	0	0	0	0
Travis Daniels	104	16	14	14	47	1	0
AJ Davis	105	0	0	0	0	0	0
Vincent Fuller	108	2	0	0	0	0	0
John Bowie	110	2	0	0	1	0	0

*Dustin Fox played for a different team than the one that drafted him.

There have been 21 corners drafted in this range in the past five years by teams other than Indianapolis. Four of them failed to make the team that took them.  Four started at least six games in their rookie year.  Drafting in the third round, you are as likely to get nothing as you are a rookie starter.

The three best corners on this list were Foxworth, Hobbs and Daniels.  A couple of others made lesser contributions.  Most didn't play much at all.  Only three posted 30 tackles. Only 6 had an interception.

What to Expect:

Ironically, it's fair to expect more from Thomas than it is from Angerer and Hughes.

The Colts treat corners differently than most teams.  They take a lot of them and most of them play.  Compare the tackle totals for the rookie corners to yesterday's tackle totals for rookie linebackers.

Thomas is expected to compete for the nickle spot with Jacob Lacey.  Frankly, if he won that job, it would be an impressive accomplishment.  Regardless, there is every reason to expect him to be no worse than the fourth corner.

Having said that, the Colts' corners have battled injuries for several seasons now.  Neither Powers nor Hayden played in all 16 games last year.  If/when the Colts suffer losses in the secondary,Thomas should be able to step up into whatever role is vacated and hold the fort, be it as a starter or as a nickle.  While we would certainly love to see Jerraud Powers part two, even if he doesn't play at that level, it won't indicate anything about his future.

Thomas ought to be able to chip in one start, 30 tackles, one INT, and good special teams play.  If he wins the third corner job, he has to be considered a great success.  As long as he makes the team and contributes, he'll be a solid third round value.  If he unseats one of the two starters (ala Powers last year), then he'll be a raging hit, and the Colts will be formidable to say the least.

Conclusion:

What we are looking for is:

• A dime corner who plays in four wide sets
• solid special teams play
• 30 tackles and an interception

That production would place him in the top half of Colts rookie corners since 2002. It would be elite 3rd round production from a rookie corner from other teams. Anything more has to be considered an exemplary season.

All week, I'll be running a "What to Expect" series.  The goal of this series is to create realistic expectations for the Colts draft picks based on historical performance from similar players.  Too often fans think of young players as 'busts' if they don't produce their rookie years, when the reality is that most rookies don't produce right away.

Today we'll be looking at controversial second round pick Pat Angerer.  Because so many questioned the pick, some will rush to call Angerer a bust if he doesn't turn into a 16 game starter his rookie year.  For the purposes of projecting Angerer, I'm going to use Phil Wheeler, Freddy Keiaho, Gilbert Gardner, Tyjuan Hagler, David Thornton, Cato June, Gary Brackett, and Clint Session from the Colts side in the Tampa 2.  Then we'll look at Marcus Washington, Mike Peterson and Rob Morris, three highly drafted Colts LBs before the 2. That should give us a nice baseline of players who came up in the Colts' system.  I'll also look at all the 4-3 linebackers taken between picks 50 and 75 since 2005 in the NFL.

Tampa 2 Colts Linebackers:

	Pick	Games	Starts	tackles	INT/FF	Sacks
Wheeler	93	16	0	2	0	0
Keiaho	94	14	0	16	2	0
Gardner	69	11	0	9	0	0
Hagler	173	9	0	3	0	0
Thornton	106	15	0	36	0	0
June	198	11	0	6	0	0
Brackett	N/D	16	0	27	1	1
Session	136	13	1	19	3	0

Underline this in your mind:

Colts' linebackers don't start their rookie years.

This list is a nice mix of awful players (Gardner), solid players (Hagler), and good players (Brackett and Session).  What you do see is that the pretty good ones made a few more plays on special teams than the average ones, but none of them played very much at all.

Highly drafted Colts LBs:

	Pick	Games	Starts	tackles	INT/FF	Sacks
Morris	28	7	0	8	0	0
Washington	59	16	0	7	2	1
Peterson	36	16	13	71	0	3

Ok, so you have to go back to Mike Peterson in 1999 before you find a Colts LB who started his rookie year, or had more than 40 tackles.  You can see that when the really good ones got on the field, they found ways to make an impact play.

4-3 Linebackers from 2005-2009 taken from pick 50-75

	Pick	Games	Starts	tackles	INT/FF	Sacks
David Veikune	52	0	0	0	0	0
Cody Brown	63	0	0	0	0	0
DeAndre Levy	76	16	10	54	2	0
Dan Conner	74	3	0	9	0	0
Sabby Piscietelli*	64	3	0	2	0	0
Quncy Black	68	15	0	18	2	0
Buster Davis	69	1	0	0	0	0
Abdual Hodge	67	8	1	8	0	0
Matt McCoy	63	4	0	2	0	0
Channing Crowder	70	16	13	53	1	0
Kirk Morrison	78	16	15	91	0	0

*Piscietelli has played mostly safety.

Only three LBs in this slot in the past five drafts started their rookie years.  Considering that two of them didn't even make their teams, that's pretty amazing.  Kirk Morrison rang up a lot of tackles, but none of the players would really be called an impact player in their rookie year.

What to Expect:

I've got two words for you:

Special Teams.

Listen, Pat Angerer will be given every chance to unseat Phil Wheeler, but the odds are very long that he'll be able to do it.  When he doesn't win the linebacker job out of camp, don't freak out.  Very few rookie linebackers start.  Most of them, even good ones that go on to Pro Bowls, don't start their first year.

Angerer should appear in all 16 games; I would expect him not to start at all (partially because I think Wheeler puts it together).  Angerer should post between 20-30 tackles and it would be nice if he made a special play or two during garbage time.  A sack, a pick, a fumble...something.  But honestly, if he's anything like most rookie linebackers, he won't see the field often and you'll barely notice him.  That won't make him a bust...it will make him 100% normal.  It takes linebackers a couple of years to become serious players.  In a year, it will be largely impossible to judge him.

If he wins a starting role and contributes at all, then the pick will have to qualify as an instant, over the top success from a first year point of view.

Angerer will obviously be a bust if he gets cut or is inactive (coaches decision) a lot of weeks.  Indy needs him on the field on special teams.  That's an important job, and one he must fulfill.  Other than that, let's hope he doesn't play much.  Unless he turns out to be crazy special, he won't start except in the event of injury.

So when people start to complain that he's a bust because he's not a starter, just remind them of most every other Colts linebacker for the past decade.  He'll be fine.

Conclusion:

All we are looking for this season is:

1. 16 games on the active roster

2.  Special teams excellence

3.  20-30 tackles, 1 special play (INT, FF, sack)

All week, I'll be running a "What to Expect" series.  The goal of this series is to create realistic expectations for the Colts draft picks based on historical performance from similar players.  Too often fans think of young players as 'busts' if they don't produce their rookie years, when the reality is that most rookies don't produce right away.

Let's start with Jerry Hughes.  For a baseline, I'll be using Dwight Freeney, Robert Mathis and every 4-3 DE drafted between picks 20-45 from 2005-2009.  From that data and an understanding of the unique situation Hughes is in, I'll draw up a probable rookie season for the talented first round pick.

Dwight Freeney:

8 starts, 45 tackles (a career high), 13 sacks, 9 forced fumbles

Freeney obviously had a massive rookie year, but most people forget that he didn't start until week 9.  Some foolish people actually wondered if he might not be a bust at that point.  Of course, in his first start, he forced three fumbles and never saw the bench again.  Freeney did have four sacks in part time duty in the first 8 games.

Robert Mathis:

0 starts, 18 tackles, 3.5 sacks, 3 FF

This is insane production from a 5th round pick. He was third on the team in sacks behind Freeny and Washington.  He had 3 of his 3.5 sacks in blowouts.

Other Top Ends:

By my count there have been about five ends selected in a similar range in the last five years.  Matt Roth (45), Everette Brown (43), Lawrence Jackson (28), Tamba Hall (20), Mathias Kiwanuka (32).

Roth and Brown were selected a bit lower.  Brown started just one game. The two had 1 and 2.5 sacks respectively.

Among the first rounders, Jackson started 14 games, but had just 2 sacks.  Hall had a monster rookie year with 16 starts, 8 sacks and 5 FF.  Kiwanuka had a solid rookie year, starting 9 games and picking up four sacks.

What to Expect:

Hughes won't be starting, barring injury to Freeney or Mathis.  However, he should see plenty of playing time especially late in the season.  It simply isn't reasonable to expect the kind of production from him that Hall and Freeney put up because they saw the field much more than Hughes likely will.  I put the over/under on sacks by Hughes his rookie year at 3.  We need to see him make a few plays when he gets the chance (ala Mathis's rookie year), but if he gets 4 sacks, we should be tickled.

I know 4 sacks doesn't sound like a lot, but four would have been the third best total for a Colt in each of the past four seasons.

Expect Hughes to get on the field a few plays every game.  Expect him to make some good special teams plays as well. That's how Mathis was used early in his career, and he was a demon.  Look for him to make a few garbage time sacks and force a fumble or two.  If he gets to four sacks, be crazy excited.  If he does any more than that, it either means he's headed for super stardom or Mathis or Freeney got hurt.

Conclusion:

All we are looking for this season is

1. Insurance

2. Special teams excellence

3. That spark when he does play that tells us he's going to be a handful when he gets his chance.

4. 3 to 4 sacks and a forced fumble

 

Now that the draft is over, let's check out the lessons we've learned from this draft:

1.  The Colts do what they do. They are not concerned with anyone else's opinion of their needs.

2.  The Colts' answer at left tackle is on the roster.  His name is either Ugoh or Johnson.  Honestly, I'm still betting on Ugoh.  Nothing would surprise me at this point.

3.  The Colts don't plan on changing anything anytime soon.  The first two picks were spent on clones of Freeney and Brackett.  Forget any plans on scheme or philosophy changes.  The Colts are restocking for exactly the same kind of team the next decade that they had this decade.

4.  The Colts want to be better in short yardage. I think we all should be stoked about the pick of Eldrige.  We've needed a big blocking TE/fullback, and now we've got one.  Apparently, the Colts think the solution to the run game woes is by getting better play from the guys on the roster and by bringing in a real full back.  Lots of fans were clamoring for that for a while now.

5.  The Colts are crazy deep. This is a team drafting backups in the first and second round.  That's freaking awesome.  It means they are taking the best players they see, rather than reaching for needs.

Tomorrow or Monday I'll give you all a realistic statistical look of what we can expect from this class next year and moving forward.

 

All three picks are close together, so I'll put them in the same post.

• Ricardo Matthews, DT, Cincinnati-He's a light DT.
• Kavell Conner, LB, Clemson-There's the other LB.

There will be one more pick to come...check back in 10 minutes.

• Ray Fisher, CB Indiana.  There's the other corner I was looking for as well as a return guy.  Hey, it's someone who actually visited the Colts.  There you go.  Now you know how much it's worth it to pay attention to who visits.  You might just guess the last guy taken in the 7th round.