Here's a scouting report of Kevin Thomas from reader Jesse Nocon:

I would like to share my opinion of a pick that was called a reach by many in the sports media. However, I think that pick number 94, Kevin Thomas CB out of USC, was at the player's value. While the majority of the amateur scouting is through online film clips, as a student at USC, I have the opportunity to watch every USC football home game live and in person. Therefore, I feel like I have a better understanding of USC players than any other school.

As a football player, Kevin Thomas has good athletic ability and plays as fast as his 4.48 combine forty suggests. He plays with explosion and a competitive edge, delivering more big hits than expected from a corner. His is more long than tall, but at 6'0'' is not short. I do not personally know Kevin, but I have only heard good things about him in and out of the classroom at USC (which is not the case for all football players). He has all the tools to contribute immediately on special teams.

As a cornerback, Kevin Thomas has the necessary attributes to be a solid starting corner in the NFL, and at worst play the increasingly important nickel corner. Thomas has the field speed to not get beat deep, an explosive first step out of his break and a physicality that many corners lack. He was often used at USC in blitz packages and delivered punishing hits on the quarterbacks he sacked. While not always consistent in open field tackling, he is willing to hit and does not shy away from contact.

I think Thomas is better in man to man than zone. He can play both press and off man, using his length to jam and his athletic ability to run with receivers. In zone, he often showed the ability to break on a player, make a tackle and prevent the big play. I believe he has the ability to break on the ball and create interceptions as well, but has not showcased it on a consistent basis. The majority of offenses attacked the USC zone in 2009 with short underneath passes over the middle, exploiting an inexperienced linebacking core and avoiding solid DB's like Thomas.  I think this is the reason, and not some inadequacy on Thomas' part, that accounts for the lack of interceptions in his senior season. Furthermore, as a nickel corner in 2008, he had 3 INT's, which is good production. Thomas is well-coached and held his own on USC defenses that have created multiple NFL starters and a defensive rookie of the year.

I think Thomas was considered a reach by many for his lack of big plays (int's) and durability concerns. However, as long as he checked out medically, I think Thomas is at least as talented as Brandon Ghee, a corner taken only a few picks later. Thomas is exactly what teams should look for in the third round. He has the size, speed, athleticism and physicality to be successful at the NFL.

It seems to me that his lack of interceptions and overall average production are his two major weaknesses when he is on the field. However, because of the way teams attacked USC's 2009 defense, Thomas did not have the opportunity to make such plays. Thomas is similar to another recently drafted USC corner, Terrell Thomas of the NY Giants. They are of almost identical size, with nearly identical combine performances. Terrell Thomas was drafted in the late second, and had five interceptions as well as almost 90 tackles in his second NFL season. Both show great athleticism and physicality. Both have the same strengths. However, Terrell Thomas produced more interception wise than Kevin Thomas at the collegiate level and therefore was drafted higher.

The Colts got what I believe could be a starting NFL corner as soon as his second year, just like Terrell Thomas for the Giants.

That's certianly an encouraging report.  Thanks to Jesse Nocon for his thoughts and nice write up.

All week, I'll be running a "What to Expect" series.  The goal of this series is to create realistic expectations for the Colts draft picks based on historical performance from similar players.  Too often fans think of young players as 'busts' if they don't produce their rookie years, when the reality is that most rookies don't produce right away.

Kevin Thomas from USC was the Colts third round pick.  The corner enters a good situation considering the Colts only have three other real CBs.  Of course, all three are strong players.  For a look at how we can expect Thomas to fare his rookie year, first I'll consider the 12 corners the Colts have taken since 2002 (when the cover-2 was installed).  Then I'll examine all corners selected between picks number 80-110 since 2005 by any team in the NFL.

Colts Corners Taken since 2002

	Pick	Games	Starts	Passes Defended	Tackles	Interceptions
Jackson	29	15	1	4	43	1
Hayden	60	16	0	1	18	0
Jennings	62	11	0	0	7	0
Jefferson	74	14	0	0	1	0
Strickland	90	11	8	3	33	2
Powers	92	12	12	10	55	1
Hughes	95	10	0	2	14	0
David	125	16	11	15	48	4
Condren	131	8	0	0	3	0
Coe	173	6	0	1	8	0
Hutchins	173	16	1	2	32	1
Lewis	183	0	0	0	0	0
Lacey	UDFA	16	9	13	63	3

This is a fascinating list.  The Colts love to draft corners, so we have a nice cross section of players.  First off all, it's impressive to note that despite taking 12 corners in 8 seasons, 11 made the team.  Thomas was the 94th overall pick, and the Colts have three other players on this list in almost that same slot.

Jacob Lacey's, Jerraud Powers' and Jason David's rookie seasons immediately jump off the page.  All became primary starters right away and made big contributions.  Lacey led this list in tackles; David had as many picks his rookie year as the other 11 drafted Colts combined.

We also see guys who became good and important players not see much action their rookie year.  Jackson and Hayden did not start despite their high draft status.  Both grew to be good corners.  It's important to remember that when considering Thomas, who steps in as a nickle back at best, and probably a dime.  There's also the case of Donald Strickland who played a lot his rookie year, and was gone one season later (though he's still bouncing around the league to his credit).

NFL Corners taken between 80-110 since 2005

(note: I tried to take just corners, but many safties are listed as DBs as well. If I was in doubt, I left the player in.  Some players played only as kick returners.  They are labled KR.  Also note that I excluded the players the Colts drafted (like Powers) from this list)

	Pick	Games	Starts	Passes Defended	Tackles	Interceptions	Sacks
Kevin Barnes	80	4	0	0	2	0	0
Dustin Fox*	80	1	0	0	0	0	0
Johnathan Wade	84	16	1	1	23	1	0
Ellis Hobbs	84	16	8	12	35	3	0
Tom Zbikowski	86	16	0	0	1	0	0
David Pitman	87	7	1	3	9	2	0
Scott Starks	87	16	0	2	11	0	0
Lardarius Webb	88	14	4	6	29	0	1
Christopher Owens	90	16	6	2	21	2	0
Ryan Mouton	94	14	2	0	9	0	0
Rashad Johnson	95	10	1	1	17	0	0
Keenan Lewis	96	4	0	0	0	0	0
Domonique Foxworth	97	16	7	16	65	2	0
King	101	0	0	0	0	0	0
Darnell Bing	101	0	0	0	0	0	0
Donald Washington	102	8	0	0	3	0	0
Antonio Perkins (KR)	103	1	0	0	0	0	0
Travis Daniels	104	16	14	14	47	1	0
AJ Davis	105	0	0	0	0	0	0
Vincent Fuller	108	2	0	0	0	0	0
John Bowie	110	2	0	0	1	0	0

*Dustin Fox played for a different team than the one that drafted him.

There have been 21 corners drafted in this range in the past five years by teams other than Indianapolis. Four of them failed to make the team that took them.  Four started at least six games in their rookie year.  Drafting in the third round, you are as likely to get nothing as you are a rookie starter.

The three best corners on this list were Foxworth, Hobbs and Daniels.  A couple of others made lesser contributions.  Most didn't play much at all.  Only three posted 30 tackles. Only 6 had an interception.

What to Expect:

Ironically, it's fair to expect more from Thomas than it is from Angerer and Hughes.

The Colts treat corners differently than most teams.  They take a lot of them and most of them play.  Compare the tackle totals for the rookie corners to yesterday's tackle totals for rookie linebackers.

Thomas is expected to compete for the nickle spot with Jacob Lacey.  Frankly, if he won that job, it would be an impressive accomplishment.  Regardless, there is every reason to expect him to be no worse than the fourth corner.

Having said that, the Colts' corners have battled injuries for several seasons now.  Neither Powers nor Hayden played in all 16 games last year.  If/when the Colts suffer losses in the secondary,Thomas should be able to step up into whatever role is vacated and hold the fort, be it as a starter or as a nickle.  While we would certainly love to see Jerraud Powers part two, even if he doesn't play at that level, it won't indicate anything about his future.

Thomas ought to be able to chip in one start, 30 tackles, one INT, and good special teams play.  If he wins the third corner job, he has to be considered a great success.  As long as he makes the team and contributes, he'll be a solid third round value.  If he unseats one of the two starters (ala Powers last year), then he'll be a raging hit, and the Colts will be formidable to say the least.

Conclusion:

What we are looking for is:

• A dime corner who plays in four wide sets
• solid special teams play
• 30 tackles and an interception

That production would place him in the top half of Colts rookie corners since 2002. It would be elite 3rd round production from a rookie corner from other teams. Anything more has to be considered an exemplary season.

All week, I'll be running a "What to Expect" series.  The goal of this series is to create realistic expectations for the Colts draft picks based on historical performance from similar players.  Too often fans think of young players as 'busts' if they don't produce their rookie years, when the reality is that most rookies don't produce right away.

Today we'll be looking at controversial second round pick Pat Angerer.  Because so many questioned the pick, some will rush to call Angerer a bust if he doesn't turn into a 16 game starter his rookie year.  For the purposes of projecting Angerer, I'm going to use Phil Wheeler, Freddy Keiaho, Gilbert Gardner, Tyjuan Hagler, David Thornton, Cato June, Gary Brackett, and Clint Session from the Colts side in the Tampa 2.  Then we'll look at Marcus Washington, Mike Peterson and Rob Morris, three highly drafted Colts LBs before the 2. That should give us a nice baseline of players who came up in the Colts' system.  I'll also look at all the 4-3 linebackers taken between picks 50 and 75 since 2005 in the NFL.

Tampa 2 Colts Linebackers:

	Pick	Games	Starts	tackles	INT/FF	Sacks
Wheeler	93	16	0	2	0	0
Keiaho	94	14	0	16	2	0
Gardner	69	11	0	9	0	0
Hagler	173	9	0	3	0	0
Thornton	106	15	0	36	0	0
June	198	11	0	6	0	0
Brackett	N/D	16	0	27	1	1
Session	136	13	1	19	3	0

Underline this in your mind:

Colts' linebackers don't start their rookie years.

This list is a nice mix of awful players (Gardner), solid players (Hagler), and good players (Brackett and Session).  What you do see is that the pretty good ones made a few more plays on special teams than the average ones, but none of them played very much at all.

Highly drafted Colts LBs:

	Pick	Games	Starts	tackles	INT/FF	Sacks
Morris	28	7	0	8	0	0
Washington	59	16	0	7	2	1
Peterson	36	16	13	71	0	3

Ok, so you have to go back to Mike Peterson in 1999 before you find a Colts LB who started his rookie year, or had more than 40 tackles.  You can see that when the really good ones got on the field, they found ways to make an impact play.

4-3 Linebackers from 2005-2009 taken from pick 50-75

	Pick	Games	Starts	tackles	INT/FF	Sacks
David Veikune	52	0	0	0	0	0
Cody Brown	63	0	0	0	0	0
DeAndre Levy	76	16	10	54	2	0
Dan Conner	74	3	0	9	0	0
Sabby Piscietelli*	64	3	0	2	0	0
Quncy Black	68	15	0	18	2	0
Buster Davis	69	1	0	0	0	0
Abdual Hodge	67	8	1	8	0	0
Matt McCoy	63	4	0	2	0	0
Channing Crowder	70	16	13	53	1	0
Kirk Morrison	78	16	15	91	0	0

*Piscietelli has played mostly safety.

Only three LBs in this slot in the past five drafts started their rookie years.  Considering that two of them didn't even make their teams, that's pretty amazing.  Kirk Morrison rang up a lot of tackles, but none of the players would really be called an impact player in their rookie year.

What to Expect:

I've got two words for you:

Special Teams.

Listen, Pat Angerer will be given every chance to unseat Phil Wheeler, but the odds are very long that he'll be able to do it.  When he doesn't win the linebacker job out of camp, don't freak out.  Very few rookie linebackers start.  Most of them, even good ones that go on to Pro Bowls, don't start their first year.

Angerer should appear in all 16 games; I would expect him not to start at all (partially because I think Wheeler puts it together).  Angerer should post between 20-30 tackles and it would be nice if he made a special play or two during garbage time.  A sack, a pick, a fumble...something.  But honestly, if he's anything like most rookie linebackers, he won't see the field often and you'll barely notice him.  That won't make him a bust...it will make him 100% normal.  It takes linebackers a couple of years to become serious players.  In a year, it will be largely impossible to judge him.

If he wins a starting role and contributes at all, then the pick will have to qualify as an instant, over the top success from a first year point of view.

Angerer will obviously be a bust if he gets cut or is inactive (coaches decision) a lot of weeks.  Indy needs him on the field on special teams.  That's an important job, and one he must fulfill.  Other than that, let's hope he doesn't play much.  Unless he turns out to be crazy special, he won't start except in the event of injury.

So when people start to complain that he's a bust because he's not a starter, just remind them of most every other Colts linebacker for the past decade.  He'll be fine.

Conclusion:

All we are looking for this season is:

1. 16 games on the active roster

2.  Special teams excellence

3.  20-30 tackles, 1 special play (INT, FF, sack)

All week, I'll be running a "What to Expect" series.  The goal of this series is to create realistic expectations for the Colts draft picks based on historical performance from similar players.  Too often fans think of young players as 'busts' if they don't produce their rookie years, when the reality is that most rookies don't produce right away.

Let's start with Jerry Hughes.  For a baseline, I'll be using Dwight Freeney, Robert Mathis and every 4-3 DE drafted between picks 20-45 from 2005-2009.  From that data and an understanding of the unique situation Hughes is in, I'll draw up a probable rookie season for the talented first round pick.

Dwight Freeney:

8 starts, 45 tackles (a career high), 13 sacks, 9 forced fumbles

Freeney obviously had a massive rookie year, but most people forget that he didn't start until week 9.  Some foolish people actually wondered if he might not be a bust at that point.  Of course, in his first start, he forced three fumbles and never saw the bench again.  Freeney did have four sacks in part time duty in the first 8 games.

Robert Mathis:

0 starts, 18 tackles, 3.5 sacks, 3 FF

This is insane production from a 5th round pick. He was third on the team in sacks behind Freeny and Washington.  He had 3 of his 3.5 sacks in blowouts.

Other Top Ends:

By my count there have been about five ends selected in a similar range in the last five years.  Matt Roth (45), Everette Brown (43), Lawrence Jackson (28), Tamba Hall (20), Mathias Kiwanuka (32).

Roth and Brown were selected a bit lower.  Brown started just one game. The two had 1 and 2.5 sacks respectively.

Among the first rounders, Jackson started 14 games, but had just 2 sacks.  Hall had a monster rookie year with 16 starts, 8 sacks and 5 FF.  Kiwanuka had a solid rookie year, starting 9 games and picking up four sacks.

What to Expect:

Hughes won't be starting, barring injury to Freeney or Mathis.  However, he should see plenty of playing time especially late in the season.  It simply isn't reasonable to expect the kind of production from him that Hall and Freeney put up because they saw the field much more than Hughes likely will.  I put the over/under on sacks by Hughes his rookie year at 3.  We need to see him make a few plays when he gets the chance (ala Mathis's rookie year), but if he gets 4 sacks, we should be tickled.

I know 4 sacks doesn't sound like a lot, but four would have been the third best total for a Colt in each of the past four seasons.

Expect Hughes to get on the field a few plays every game.  Expect him to make some good special teams plays as well. That's how Mathis was used early in his career, and he was a demon.  Look for him to make a few garbage time sacks and force a fumble or two.  If he gets to four sacks, be crazy excited.  If he does any more than that, it either means he's headed for super stardom or Mathis or Freeney got hurt.

Conclusion:

All we are looking for this season is

1. Insurance

2. Special teams excellence

3. That spark when he does play that tells us he's going to be a handful when he gets his chance.

4. 3 to 4 sacks and a forced fumble

 

Now that the draft is over, let's check out the lessons we've learned from this draft:

1.  The Colts do what they do. They are not concerned with anyone else's opinion of their needs.

2.  The Colts' answer at left tackle is on the roster.  His name is either Ugoh or Johnson.  Honestly, I'm still betting on Ugoh.  Nothing would surprise me at this point.

3.  The Colts don't plan on changing anything anytime soon.  The first two picks were spent on clones of Freeney and Brackett.  Forget any plans on scheme or philosophy changes.  The Colts are restocking for exactly the same kind of team the next decade that they had this decade.

4.  The Colts want to be better in short yardage. I think we all should be stoked about the pick of Eldrige.  We've needed a big blocking TE/fullback, and now we've got one.  Apparently, the Colts think the solution to the run game woes is by getting better play from the guys on the roster and by bringing in a real full back.  Lots of fans were clamoring for that for a while now.

5.  The Colts are crazy deep. This is a team drafting backups in the first and second round.  That's freaking awesome.  It means they are taking the best players they see, rather than reaching for needs.

Tomorrow or Monday I'll give you all a realistic statistical look of what we can expect from this class next year and moving forward.

 

All three picks are close together, so I'll put them in the same post.

• Ricardo Matthews, DT, Cincinnati-He's a light DT.
• Kavell Conner, LB, Clemson-There's the other LB.

There will be one more pick to come...check back in 10 minutes.

• Ray Fisher, CB Indiana.  There's the other corner I was looking for as well as a return guy.  Hey, it's someone who actually visited the Colts.  There you go.  Now you know how much it's worth it to pay attention to who visits.  You might just guess the last guy taken in the 7th round.
  

In the fifth round, the Colts select Brody Eldridge, TE out of Oklahoma.  He's 6'4" 260, but also played some guard and center.  He's a high character player.

He's also played some fullback.

That might actually be why the Colts wanted him.

Barring a trade, they have three 7th round picks almost at the very end of the draft.

UPDATE:  Polian has described him as an excellent blocker, good in short yardage.  He's clearly meant to be the big blocking TE/fullback.  No more Mike Hart as fullback.  That's a very good thing.

 

There's the first O lineman taken by the Colts, Jaques McClendon a guard from U. Tennessee.

He's 6'3", 324.  That's a big man.  Hope he makes the team.

Why did we think the Colts were changing the philosophy of their offensive line?

We know the line is an issue, especially in run blocking.  For months we've been operating under the assumption that the Colts were "trying to get bigger".  Some people took the relatively inconsequential signings of two potential backups (who might not even make the team) as evidence of that.

In the end, the only evidence we had that the Colts were doing anything different was the word of...

an agent...

for a player who had just been cut...

for failing a physical.

Whoops.  The parts seemed to add up, maybe.  Polian ripped the line.  Howard Mudd retired.  Moore stepped aside.  Maybe the Colts were going to go in a different direction.

Nope.  As it turns out, that talk was completely fabricated by the agent of Ryan Lilja.  The Colts have no intention of doing anything any differently than they ever have.  What's interesting is that Tony Ugoh and Mike Pollack, for all the justifiable abuse they've taken, are still on the team.  It's fascinating that both players' problems are said to be largely mental by scouts.  They have problems letting go of the bad plays and their mistakes. I don't want to be too Polyannish about things, but no one has claimed that they lack the physical skills to play at a high level.  Maybe they just need to grow up a little.

Can that happen?  Sure.  Most people change pretty radically from 22 to 26 years old.  It's the new American adolescence.  Suddenly, Polian's shot across the bow to the line can be seen not as a change of direction, but rather a wake up call to some young men who couldn't get themselves back on the field. The answer to the line problems may still be on the roster.

I expect the Colts to pick up some projects today.  I expect to see a kicker, another corner or linebacker and definitely a lineman or two.  The fifth round is an Indy favorite for a new guard.

That sounds like I'm unhappy, but honestly, I'm not, at least not about the draft.  First off sorry for the black out.  Demond went AWOL, and now I get home to two picks and have to figure out what to make of them.

Let's cover the easy part first:

Third round pick Kevin Thomas CB.

Anyone surprised by the Colts taking anything but a corner in the third round hasn't been paying attention.

2009: 3rd round CB

2007: 2nd round CB

2006: 2nd round CB

2005: 2nd round CB

2004: 4th round CB

2003: 3rd round CB

2002: 3rd round CB

2001: 3rd round CB

2000: 3rd round CB

1999: 4th round CB

Have we detected a pattern here yet?  Everyone should have had the Colts slotted to take a DB in the third round.  It's when they feel like there is value.  I'll be honest, I know NOTHING about Kevin Thomas.  The truth is, it doesn't matter.  Corners are totally interchangeable in the Colts system. They won 12 games with Ratliff and Jennings starting two years ago.  It's the third round?  Time to draft another warm body.  Whichever one Polian likes is fine by me.

Now, the more controversial pick was the second round pick, linebacker Pat Angerer from Iowa. This pick has irritated some fans. First off, no one has the right to call any Polian pick a bad pick.  That's the height of stupidity.

Flash back to what I said last night about the pick of Hughes:

6.  Everyone on the Colts defense is basically expendable to some degree or another except for the DEs and the MLB.  We need to find a new MLB soon, but DE should be covered for the time being.

It's like some people pay no attention to how the Colts work at all.

Now, I know that Angerer will likely be competition on the outside at first, but remember that the Colts are always looking two and three years down the road.  Gary Brackett is not going to last forever.  Also, remember that he was freaking undrafted free agent to begin with. Angerer has been playing middle linebacker for Iowa for three years now.  Frankly, I'd think Colts fans would do a freaking jig every time someone gets drafted from Iowa...it has a habit of working out.

He ran a crappy 40 at the combine or where ever.  So what?  He showed solid cover skills for three years.  What are you going to believe?  With the first two picks in the draft the Colts bought depth at the only two defensive positions that really matter.  That's brilliant.

Everyone is still whining about the Colts not upgrading the O line, but that's just not what they usually do in the early rounds.  That was never a credible or realistic vision for this team.  First off all, the 2008 Steelers and 2009 Colts both proved that offensive line has become a vastly overrated component of championship caliber teams.

Secondly, the Colts are a young team with an old core.  They don't need starters now.  They need depth.  The last three seasons ended in defeat because of injuries to Freeney and Brackett.

Finally, a first year back up is a fine result for a second round pick.  In fact, anyone expecting to get an instant starter from the second round again hasn't been paying attention.

YOU DON'T USUALLY GET FIRST YEAR STARTERS IN ROUND TWO!

In the Polian era, 5 of 10 2nd round picks have started most of the games in their rookie year.  The immortal names:

Idris Bashir, Larry Tripplett, Mike Doss, Charlie Johnson, Mike Pollack

Among the ones who didn't:  Marcus Washington, Bob Sanders, Kelvin Hayden.

Pundits whine about the Colts being hard to figure out.  They aren't.  They do the same things every year.  It's time to start paying attention.  I don't know anything about these players. What I study is the Indianapolis Colts and how they operate.  It's all about philosophy and fit.  The Colts made two picks today that are 100% in keeping with their style and philosophy of drafting. If you want to understand the Colts drafts, don't waste time on mocks and and player evaluations.  Just go to this page and stare at it until it makes sense.

History tells us that the Colts are likely to come up with four eventual starters from this draft.  One of them will probably make a Pro Bowl.  6 or so players from this draft will make the team.  One or two will start immediately.  The rest won't.

My grade?  A+.  Because of the players?  No.  I have no idea.

Because of history.