2011 DVOA Projections: Even With Manning, Colts Miss Playoffs
[caption id="" align="aligncenter" width="780" caption="Manning's return will determine the Colts' fate for 2011"]
Manning[/caption]
Yesterday, Aaron Schatz of Football Outsiders posted their DVOA projections for the 2011 NFL season. I was curious to see how the Colts would end up, and how FO would evaluate them with Manning's injury questions.
Turns out, the Colts season was largely predicated on the fact that Manning would be directing the offense for the majority of the season. Even so, FO's system spat out a record of 8-8 for the Colts, a record that doesn't put the team in the playoffs.
And this is with Peyton Manning.
While the DVOA system predicted only a two game change if Kerry Collins was the quarterback (6-10), I think it's safe to say that if the Colts are an eight-win team with Peyton Manning, they sure as heck couldn't win six games without him.
The offensive DVOA was predicted to be 10.4%, good for 10th in the league. The Miami Dolphins on the other hand, were at 10.6%, good for 9th.
Yes, those Miami Dolphins. The Chad Henne-led Dolphins.
I find it very hard to believe that a Peyton Manning-led Colts team, with his weapons Austin Collie, Dallas Clark, and (possibly) Anthony Gonzalez healthy, couldn't outplay the Miami Dolphins' offense.
I find it hard to believe that an offense that posted a final DVOA of 16.6% in 2010 without two of the top three receivers, without Joseph Addai for periods of time, and without a defense to give them short fields, can drop that far in efficiency. Especially when those weapons are primed for the season.
The run game should be better with an upgraded offensive line, the pass game should be better with returning weapons, so why the sudden drop if this is assuming that Manning would play healthily?
I can understand the disbelief in the Colts' defense, although I personally believe it will be better in 2011 than in 2010.But the Colts' offense is always expected to start slowing down, and never does. If Manning plays the majority of the season (by majority I mean at least 12 games), I expect the offense to hum along a lot better than Miami's.
Why wouldn't it?
Manning[/caption]
Yesterday, Aaron Schatz of Football Outsiders posted their DVOA projections for the 2011 NFL season. I was curious to see how the Colts would end up, and how FO would evaluate them with Manning's injury questions.
Turns out, the Colts season was largely predicated on the fact that Manning would be directing the offense for the majority of the season. Even so, FO's system spat out a record of 8-8 for the Colts, a record that doesn't put the team in the playoffs.
And this is with Peyton Manning.
While the DVOA system predicted only a two game change if Kerry Collins was the quarterback (6-10), I think it's safe to say that if the Colts are an eight-win team with Peyton Manning, they sure as heck couldn't win six games without him.
The offensive DVOA was predicted to be 10.4%, good for 10th in the league. The Miami Dolphins on the other hand, were at 10.6%, good for 9th.
Yes, those Miami Dolphins. The Chad Henne-led Dolphins.
I find it very hard to believe that a Peyton Manning-led Colts team, with his weapons Austin Collie, Dallas Clark, and (possibly) Anthony Gonzalez healthy, couldn't outplay the Miami Dolphins' offense.
I find it hard to believe that an offense that posted a final DVOA of 16.6% in 2010 without two of the top three receivers, without Joseph Addai for periods of time, and without a defense to give them short fields, can drop that far in efficiency. Especially when those weapons are primed for the season.
The run game should be better with an upgraded offensive line, the pass game should be better with returning weapons, so why the sudden drop if this is assuming that Manning would play healthily?
I can understand the disbelief in the Colts' defense, although I personally believe it will be better in 2011 than in 2010.But the Colts' offense is always expected to start slowing down, and never does. If Manning plays the majority of the season (by majority I mean at least 12 games), I expect the offense to hum along a lot better than Miami's.
Why wouldn't it?
