The Colts dropped to the Lions today 18-17. They are now 1-2 on the preseason

We'll see you here at One PM Indiana time.

The always excellent Profootballreference.com blog addressed an interesting dilmena recently.  Most fans know that John Elway is credited with the most comeback wins all time with 47.  The problem is that "Come from behind wins" isn't an official stat, and that all teams track and count it differently.  The PFR blog rightly suggests normalizing the way comebacks are credited:

1.  The team has to win.  For example, in 2003, Manning led the Colts on a brilliant drive to force overtime against the Panthers.  The Panthers won in OT.  That does not count as a comeback.

2. The team has to be trailing in the fourth quarter.  Manning led a brilliant game winning drive in San Diego last year.  The problem is that the Colts were tied at the time, and never trailed in the 4th quarter.  That's a game winning drive, but obviously not a comeback.  It doesn't count.

3.  If the offense contributes to the comeback, but the defense scores the winning points, it's a comeback, but not a game winning drive. Think about the Jacksonville game last year.  Indy is down 10 in the 4th quarter.  Manning leads two drives to tie the game, Garrard throws the pick 6, and the Colts win.  Manning gets a comeback win, but not a game winning drive.

I'm 100% on board with these definitions, which is why I titled my article on Manning's heroics "18 Best Fourth Quarter Victories" to distinguish between comebacks and game winning drives.

The Blog posts this chart to show the difference between reported totals of comebacks and actual totals:

QB                 Reported     Actual
John Elway              47        34
Brett Favre             42        27
Dan Marino              37        36
Peyton Manning          37        28
Drew Bledsoe            32        24
Joe Montana             31        31
Johnny Unitas           31        34
Tom Brady               28        20
Roger Staubach          23        15
Ben Roethlisberger      19        15
Chad Pennington          7         7
Jay Cutler               7         5 

So you can see from this list that Manning sits behind Marino, Unitas, Elway, and Montana on the all-time comebacks list.

I'm still scrambling to compile a list of those 28 comebacks. That's where I need your help. I've identified 25, but the other three elude me.
1998 NY Jets
1999 @ Cle
1999 KC
1999 Wash
2000 @ Buff
2000 NE
2002 Balt
2002 Denver
2002 Cle
2002 Jacksonville
2003 @ Tampa
2003 @ Buff
2003 @ Hou
2004 @ Tenn
2004 Chargers
2005 Jacksonville
2006 Tenn
2006 @ Jets
2006 @ Denver
2006 NE
2007 @ Oak
2008 @ Hou
2008 @ Minn
2008 @ Pitt
2008 @ Jacksonville

If anyone can come up with the last three comebacks that I don't mention, I'd appreciate it. Checking out Manning's game logs is a good place to start...

UPDATE:  We found the missing three games.

In perusing the Football Ousiders Almanac 09 one more time, I ran across some fascinating stats about Peyton Manning's 2008 season:

• Manning had the 29th most "underthrown passes".  I would have expected it to be higher.  It seemed like he was leaving the deep ball short.
• Manning was 3rd in the NFL with 36 passes dropped.  That doesn't surprise me.  Drops were a major issue last year.  Reggie Wayne dropped 9 balls (tied for 9th in the league).  Addai dropped 5.
• Manning was #2 in QB accuracy with 87.2%.  Brees was #1.  This stat attempts to figure out what % of the passes were to the target, not counting Thrown Away, Tipped at Line, or Hit in Motion.
• Manning was the 9th most hit QB in the league (one of our favorite stats considering he was the least sacked).
• He was 34th in knocked downs per pass (helps he's freaking tall)

Other Colts stats:

• Dwight Freeney led the NFL in QB hurries with 28.  He's incredible.  Mathis didn't make the list.
• He was 10th in the league in QB hits with 10.
• He was 10th in the league in knockdowns (sacks + hits)
• Bethea was 8th in the league with 4 dropped INTs (no surprise there)
• Melvin Bullitt was 8th in the NFL in fewest yards per rush tackle by a DB.  That's why no one is sweating if Sanders misses a few games.
• Gary Brackett was 3rd in fewest yards per rush tackle by a line backer.  No, we didn't miss him down the stretch (/sarcasm).
• AV was 7th in kickoff value
• Smith was 5th in gross punting value over average

Team stats:

• The offense was #1 in fewest 3 and outs
• The defense was 25th in fewest 3 and outs
• The offense was #2 in most yards per drive.  They were #4 in points per drive
  
• The defense was 27th in yards per drive.
• The Colts were the 5th best team from the shotgun
• The Colts D was the 3rd best against the shotgun
• The Colts offense was 28th in DVOA on play action passes Ouch.  Does anyone think we missed the stretch play a little?

Just to have it all in one place, here's a quick guide to the NFL's labor situation as I understand it:

What happened: In 2008, the owners opted out of the current Collective Bargaining Agreement.

What was the effect: It triggered a countdown designed to force the owners and players to sit down and deal before the clock hits zero.

• March, 2010- The two sides have to come to come to an agreement by March in order to forestall an uncapped season
• March 2011-If no agreement is reached by the start of free agency, the owners will likely "lock out" the players.  A lock out is like a strike initiated by the owners.  The players, who like the current CBA, will show up to play.  The owners won't let them, because they don't want to pay them 60% of the revenues as they are obligated to now.  Of course, both sides could just shrug and play without a CBA, but that is unlikely to happen.  Like the Lions win the Super Bowl this year unlikely.
  

Why might the players not negotiate soon?

• They would love to see the salary cap go.  Salaries could spiral out of control as in baseball.  If they don't rush to the table, the cap will die, possibly forever. They've hated the cap since its inception in 1993.  They see the chance to be rid of it.

What might get them to the table?

• No salary cap means no salary floor.  Currently, teams are forced to spend at least 87.6% of the cap.  Many teams hate this.  No cap, means no floor.  No floor means that some teams could conceivably slash their payrolls to ridiculous levels.
• 2010 would hurt pending free agents. Players like Marlin Jackson and Antoine Bethea would have to wait two more years before becoming an unrestricted free agent.  The first FA contract is the gold mine for NFL players who weren't highly drafted.  Forcing them to stay with a team for two more years would be a blow.
• More tags.  Even the players who do qualify as unrestricted free agents could be subjected to an extra "tag" by their club.  Players don't like to have their movement restricted.
• Fewer teams can participate. Vetrans won't be able to chase a ring because the best teams won't be able to participate in free agency without losing a player first.
• Desperation.  Most NFL players don't make 'that much' money.  They can't afford a work stoppage.  They need the green river to keep flowing.

Why might the owners not negotiate soon?

• No salary cap means no salary floor.  Some owners like Wayne Weaver hate the spending floor.  They may just let the cap expire so they can turn their franchises into the NFL equivalent of the Pittsburgh Pirates.
• They feel they can break the players.  The NFL has never had the strongest union, and many players live pay check to pay check.  If the owners feel they can crush the union as they did in 1987, they'll go for the throat and force the lockout until the players are ready to agree on their terms.
• Guaranteed money.  The owners have been securing rights deals that pay out whether or not there are games.  In other words, they'll still make money even if the league doesn't play.

What might get them to the table?

• The salary cap has made for a level playing field.  They know that the players have threatened to never let it come back once it goes away.  To save the cap, they might try to get a deal done by March.
• Instability is bad for the game.  The league is a powerhouse right now.  The only thing that could derail it would be a work stoppage.  It's in the owners best interests to get a deal done quickly.

What are the key issues?

• The biggest issue is what percentage of total revenue should go to the players.  It's always about money
• There are debates about what revenue streams should be included in that formula
• The draft system overpays at the top.  Owners hate it.  Some veterans hate it.  The union loves it because it drives wages up.

What does this mean for the Colts?

1.  An uncapped 2010 would probably be a short term boost.  The Colts have two key players that would no longer be eligible for free agency.  The top 4 teams are prohibited from signing free agents (unless they lose one of their own) with other restrictions on teams 5-8, so other top AFC teams that usually rely more on F/A than the Colts would suffer, while Indy could keep right on ignoring the market like always with no repercussions.

2.  An uncapped NFL would push the Colts to the middle class.  Irsay is never going to be cheap.  The Colts perennially sit in the top 5 of most money spent under the cap system.  Still, teams like the Cowboys, Redskins, Giants, and Patriots have virtually unlimited resources and would perpetually outspend Indy.  As long as the Colts kept the system draft and develop talent, however, they would likely stay competitive.

3.  A work stoppage would be devastating to the franchise.  They play in a new stadium that is publicly funded and the 2012 Super Bowl is slated to be played in Indianapolis.  A lost season would take away a year of Peyton Manning's career, a Super Bowl, and create ill will in the community.

What is happening now?

The two sides have talked a couple of times recently, but the players are bracing for a lockout.  Little progress has been made, and the two sides are still arguing over what records to disclose.

Update: 9/4  Goodell says the league is prepared for an uncapped 2010. No significant negotiations have taken place.

Update: 9/20 FO has a great article explaining the restrictions on signing unrestricted free agents (UFA's) by the top teams.

TMQ (get the title now?) is back.  Gregg Easterbrook kicks off the season by looking at the AFC.  He starts out his breakdown of the Colts in fine fashion:

Have the Colts fallen off your radar in the two years since their Super Bowl triumph? Put them back on, because last season Indianapolis won nine of its final 10, the sole loss being a playoff defeat, at the hands of the Chargers, during which there were several fluky plays and questionable calls in the fourth quarter and overtime.

Good point, Gregg.  That playoff game was full of weird, unrepeatable plays.  I'm feeling better all ready.  He goes on:

The sole Indianapolis weakness was the center of the team's run defense. Last season, Keyunta Dawson, a defensive end in college, started 14 games for Indianapolis as a defensive tackle -- at 254 pounds. This year he moves to defensive end, while enormous Fili Moala takes over the spot. If the Colts' rush defense can merely be average, TMQ makes this team the AFC favorite.

Hmm, he's sort of right.  Ed Johnson will be playing the line, not Moala (who's in the backup rotation).  He's got the details wrong, but the main point is valid.  An average run defense would make the entire squad formidable.  The Colts D is poised to strike.  We'll give him a pass and thank him for the kind thoughts toward the Horse.  Unfortunately, he kept typing...

Howard Mudd, the Colts' offensive line coach, had been the NFL's longest-serving assistant coach, at 35 years, when he "quit" this offseason. Eleven-year offensive coordinator Tom Moore "quit" too, at age 70. Neither said pension rules were the reason, though that angle got a lot of press.

Warning!  Gregg, turn back!  Don't go down this road!  Nothing good can come of it.  Actually, his statement to this point is technically accurate...while being deeply misleading.  The pension plan got a lot of press because it was the reason for the retirement. There was no grand press conspiracy here. Here's how it played out:

According to ESPN NFL expert Chris Mortensen, who first reported the story that Mudd may retire, the crux of the issue is this:

Mudd, 67, believes he has to take his entire lump-sum pension payment now because if he does not exercise that right at 65 under the revised plan, he will be allowed only to accept annuity payments upon retirement that will be reduced to 50 percent value for his immediate survivors if he dies, according to sources. Mudd has already maximized his pension because he has surpassed the formula that requires a coach’s age and league tenure to equal 75. He has been an NFL assistant for 36 consecutive seasons.

Kennan, who told the Indianapolis Star that Mudd had asked him to speak for him on the issue, said he has spoken to Mudd extensively about the issue and said the decision to retire was a long process. Kennan described Mudd’s process of reaching the decision to retire as follows:

At the end of the season, somewhere in there, he said, ‘OK, I need to start thinking about retiring. I’m going to find out how much money I have in my retirement, how I go about doing it and if I decide to retire, what it is.’ He got involved in it and found out at one point, if he retired early in the spring, his lump-sum payment he was going to get would be more if he took it now as opposed to after June 1 because the index would change. That interested him, but that wasn’t enough to get him really stirred up.

Then, he found out that a number of teams were underfunded in the pension and if that was the case and he had coached for any of them, then those teams would not be able to give him a lump sum. He would have to take an annuity and he didn’t want to do that because it messes up your social security. People want their money. They don’t want to take an annuity. So, that really got him stirred up. He then decided, ‘OK, I better try to do this.’ He filed his papers and went through that process and in the meantime, about five weeks ago he’s in the middle of deciding and the NFL decides they’re going to change the pension for non-player employees. He’s like, ‘OK, I don’t know if I can get a lump sum and I don’t know what the funding is; now, the league totally disrespected all of us by announcing without any forewarning that our pensions have changed.’ The Colts haven’t changed their pension for this year. They’re going to remain the same, but the whole process just had Howard soured on the whole thing. He said, ‘I’m out of here.’ He has some principles. There has been several people in the leauge say, ‘He’s overreacting.’ Maybe he is, but I would, too, and so would they if they were going through that process and found out all of the stuff he found out.

Kennan said it is his understanding that Colts Owner and Chief Executive Officer Jim Irsay and Polian are working to find a way to retain Mudd.

That's it.  It was the pension plan.  There was no hidden agenda by anyone.  There's nothing to see here, Gregg.  This isn't a stor...oh damn.  Easterbrook has taken the bait:

Maybe they were just burned out on football. Maybe because Tony Dungy departed, they decided not to start over with Jim Caldwell. Maybe they felt steamed that Caldwell forced aside their mutual friend, defensive coordinator Ron Meeks; anybody who was Dungy's longtime choice for defensive coordinator must be good. (Meeks took the defensive coordinator post at Carolina.) Maybe they were steamed that after lengthy loyal service to the Colts, Indianapolis did not offer them contract extensions, only one-season arrangements. Maybe they assumed Caldwell would show them the door soon, too. Maybe Indianapolis is in the process of changing from one of the NFL's best-coached teams to a franchise with sideline disarray. And maybe I'm amazed! Anyway, this summer Moore and Mudd came back, with the wonderfully glorified titles of senior offensive coordinator and senior offensive line coach. Perhaps next year, Moore will be offensive coordinator emeritus.

Easterbrook comes up with every possible reason for the two coaches' 'retirement' other than the actual one.  In fact, Moore's own words seem to dismiss all the speculation...

"I'll coach as long as someone will hire me,'' said Moore, 70.

I know that Easterbrook's motivation is to create an entertaining read, and a story about coaches getting lofty titles is right up his alley.  Still, he played fast and loose with the truth for remarkably little payoff.  It sort of makes me regret his earlier endorsement.

(Cue a bevy of whiny pro-Pats comments still griping over the satirical Good v Evil piece he did two years ago)

Hooray and huzzah for Edgerrin James. He's got a job for this season, signing with the Seahawks.  This is wonderful news for a couple of reasons:

1.  It means Edge is coming back to Indianapolis.  I fully expect him to receive nothing but the very warmest of welcomes from the faithful at the Luke.  Edge is a Colt forever, and I'm sure the fans will greet him happily.

2.  It means Edge has a serious chance to boost his Hall of Fame resume.  Edge needs 618 yards rushing to pass Allen, Faulk, Brown and Dorsett on the all time list.  He's just 1541 out of the top five all time.  Obviously, he won't get that this year, but if he grinds out two seasons he could.  In the HoF for football, players don't "go in as" members of one team or another.  Still, if he should make it to Canton, there will be a sea of blue and white supporters there for him.

While Edge has been gone long enough that we can be happy for him to return, there is still no word on Marvin Harrison.  Other than the quickly squelched rumor about the Titans recently, there has been little movement on the Marv Watch.  Now would be the time that he would sign if it's going to happen.  Training camps have ended, and if he doesn't sign soon, he's unlikely too.  Perhaps if a contender has a serious injury at WR, he could sign during the season, but it would be unlikely that he could have much impact.

I wish Harrison the best, and I could have lived with him playing in Philly (just like the only other team I could ever be ok with Manning playing for is New Orleans), but the longer this goes on, the more I hope Marv retires having only worn blue and white.

UPDATE:  Of course no sooner do I post this than PFT begins anew the speculation that the Titans might be interseted in Harrison.  There is no evidence for the claim other than the Titans have injuries.

With Washington on the shelf and wideout Chris Davis cut by the team after being arrested for DUI last week, maybe the Titans will renew the dialogue with Marvin Harrison that Fisher denies ever occurred.

I seriously hope this doesn't happen.

As sports fans, we have short memories.  There's always another season and yesterday's hero is tomorrow's goat.

When training camp started, our expectations were high for this year's team.  The defense was restocked.  Players were coming back from injury.  The O-line was coming together.  The 2009 Colts looked like they might be a sleeper juggernaut.  Since then, reality has set in.

Charlie Johnson was named starting LT.  Bob Sanders might not be ready on time.  The rookie DTs haven't risen up to become instant starters.

The Colts still figure to be a strong team, but perhaps not the force of nature that we dreamed of.

That reality tempers the need for this post, but doesn't erase it entirely.  There is a strong possibility the 2009 Colts will be dramatically better than the 2008 Colts.  I think it likely they win a playoff game or more.  When that happens, people will begin to whisper about whether or not Tony Dungy was really that great a coach.  They'll point to a bounce from the Colts that mirrors perhaps the bounce Tampa received when Tony left the Bucs.  If the defense improves, they'll praise Coyer's innovation and rail against Dungy for being too conservative.  For whatever reason, they'll chose to view any future success by the Colts as a check mark against Dungy.

Don't be fooled or sucked in when it happens.  Tony Dungy was the finest coach the Colts will likely ever have.  I wish Jim Caldwell the best and support him fully.  I expect great things from him.  I will not hold his success against Dungy however.

A few weeks ago, BBS made a great point that people will overlook:

It's important to note that tweaks, like Coyer's, were not uncommon during Tony Dungy's tenure as coach. Recall last year's final game against the Jacksonville Jaguars: Dungy deployed DT Raheem Brock as a stand-up rusher coming from the interior of the defensive line. Brock would start outside and, prior to the snap of the ball, he'd swing inside. This way, when the ball was snapped, he already had a running start, and was pushing through the interior of the Jags' offensive line. The "tweak" worked. Brock was in David Garrard's face all night.

Dungy also deployed the famous (well, famous for us) Bob Sanders Beatdown Defense, which was a Cover-2 look that shifted to Cover-3 at the snap of the ball.

It will be easy to forget the tweaks and changes that Dungy made and turn 2002-2008 into a whitewash of vanilla Cover-2.  It will be easy to remember the few coaching blunders he made.  We all know what they were:

• The kickoff in 2003 vs NE that he didn't squib
  
• not going for fourth and 1 in NE in 2005 in the playoffs
  
• Fisher snookering him into a 60 yard FG in 2006
• Not going for it on fourth and 1 in Green Bay in 2008

What we'll forget is that those are so memorable because he so rarely made those kinds of mistakes.  Tony was a great in game coach.  The Colts almost never botched end of half and end of game scenarios.  We remember the mistakes because there were so few of them.

Revisionist history will tell us that the 2009 Colts exceeded the 2008 Colts because of a 'fresh start' or 'new vision' or because Dungy secretly stunk but was such a nice guy that no one wanted to say it out loud.

Don't believe it.  The 2009 Indianapolis Colts will surpass the 2008 club because the 2008 team was a season long shell game operated by a master.  Dungy hid how bad the club by coaching the hell out of his players.

So when the Colts get off to a fast start, and the articles start flowing and the talk radio nonsense starts building, just remember what really happened.

Tony Dungy was an incredible coach.  Don't let anyone tell you otherwise.

A weird drum beat has emerged among Colts fans.  Many people have begun to question whether or not Bob Sanders is worth the money.  It was started by Kravitz last year and was recently echoed by BBS before being repeated today in Mike Chappell's "Ask the Experts" mailbag.

Let's stop the discussion right now.

Regardless of what you think about Bob Sanders, the entire debate is ignorant for reasons that have nothing to do with whether or not Sanders steps on the field.

According to Coltscap.net (I'm adjusting the numbers because the Colts reworked his deal which isn't reflected in the Coltscap page), Bob Sanders is slated to make $2.27 million in salary next year.  In addition, his total cap hit is $4.1 million.  Sanders still has at least $5.5 million in outstanding bonuses, by my count.  Again, the numbers are rough because the page hasn't been updated since the renegotiation.

There are multiple problems with cutting Sanders:

1.  Let's assume the old school rules were in effect, which they aren't.  Under the old rules, the team could cut Sanders, save his salary and split his outstanding bonuses over two seasons.  So, they could cut him, and take a $2.75 million cap hit.  Cutting Bob Sanders would only save about $1.4 million under that scenario.    The chance to have Sanders even for a handful of games is worth $1.4 million.  There's no way the Colts would cut him just to save $1.4 million.  Who would want that?

2.  Let's assume the 2009 rules somehow applied to the 2010 season, which they don't.  In that case, the Colts would have to absorb the full hit of Sanders' contract immediately.  They'd save $2.27 million (his salary), but have to eat a $5.5 million cap hit.  Keeping him will only cost $4.1 million.  Here's the kicker:  it would cost more to cut him than keep him. Cutting Bob Sanders wouldn't save the Colts cap space, it would cost them cap space.

3.  None of it matters anyway, because 2010 is an uncapped year.  There's no reason to save cap space.  THERE IS NO CAP IN 2010. Everyone's worried about resigning Bethea, but under the rules, he won't actually be an unrestricted free agent until 2012.  Guys have to wait 6 years instead of 4 to get unrestricted free agency.  Bethea and Marlin Jackson will be restricted rights FAs, and the Colts won't have to worry about losing him without compensation.  Beyond that, teams get both a transition AND a franchise tag (or two transition tags).  Beyond that, assuming the Colts have a good year this year, they likely won't be eligible to sign free agents anyway, so no one can argue that cutting Sanders would allow the Colts to sign someone else.

Now, I believe that for football reasons alone, cutting Bob Sanders would be a mistake.  That point isn't worth arguing because financially, there is no way the Colts will cut Sanders.  Even if there were to miraculously be a cap in 2010, there's no way of predicting what the rules for it would be, and most likely they wouldn't result in significant savings to the team for cutting Sanders.

So, the next time someone floats the idea of cutting Bob Sanders, tell them to stop it.  He doesn't make that much money comparitively.  Next season he won't be among 5 highest paid Colts.

He's not going anywhere.

(warning:  This post is not innate of anything.  I thought about writing about the Bob Knight situation but figured this was more interesting)

There are many things that are odd about living in a foreign country.  I especially love the names of car models they have here in Argentina.

These are my top three:

1.  The Fiat Spazio

2.  The Citroen Berlingo

3.  The Ford Taunus  (NOT the Taurus)