A word of caution to preseason prognosticators and fantasy players everywhere:  QBs don't always move forward.

It has come to my attention that a lot of people are expecting huge years out of many QBs based on what they did last year.  Lots of people look at a player like Phil Rivers (4009 yards, 34 TDs) or Aaron Rodgers (4038 Yards, 28 TDs) and predict huge 4,000 yard, 30 TD seasons for them.

In fact, 4,000 yard, 30 TD seasons are apparently being tossed out like candy now.  Check out this preseason prediction for Peyton Manning:

Peyton Manning, QB

Make no mistake, Manning isn't the same guy he was five years ago. Last season's under-the-radar offseason knee surgery caused him to start slow against a tough schedule, his offensive line wasn't as spry as it once was and the Colts struggled to get consistency out of their running game. Yet in what looked like it might be a "down season," Manning won the NFL's MVP award. He's probably not going to toss more than 35 touchdowns in '09, but he's also not throwing for fewer than 25, and he'll surely get you 4,000 yards and won't hurt you with many negative plays. Even if the elite upside is gone because of personnel, age and circumstance, Manning is worth drafting because he's phenomenally sound and clutch.

2009 Projection: 4,153 pass yds, 31 TD, 13 INT

Johnny O and Bobby K both have the same general theme today.

The Colts play the best players available.

Due to recent criticism (and I'm not going to link to the trainwreck article that started it) of Polian, some fans have been up in arms about the team cutting Taylor and Marcus Howard.  People have begun to question whether Polian is losing his touch in the draft.  There's one massive problem with that claim.

Polian drafted all the players who beat out the players he cut.

Do you think Polian cares if Tyjuan Hagler (who he drafted) beats out Phillip Wheeler (who he drafted) for a starting spot?  Polian has egg on his face (right now) over Ugoh, but he also drafted Charlie Johnson who replaced him.  The Colts haven't had to erase draft mistakes with bargain bin free agents or casts off from other teams.  They've replaced draft picks with draft picks.  There are only 5 players on the Colts that have been drafted by other clubs.  Two of those were last minute pick ups this weekend. The truth is that when a 6th rounder or a UFA beats out a 3rd rounder, it makes Polian look smart in the long run.  When that player becomes a star, everyone says, "Wow!  Polian hit on a 6th round pick!".  They forget that it means that he whiffed on the 3rd round pick in the same draft.  That's the nature of the draft.  After the first round, the difference in talent level starts to fall off precipitously.  In the end, a 4th rounder and a UFA aren't that far apart.  We only perceive there to be a big difference.  It doesn't matter that Polain has airmailed almost every 3rd round pick for a decade.  He's been money in other rounds.

The only way that Bill Polian could be losing his touch is if the Colts were somehow worse than they used to be.  They haven't been signing free agents, so virtually everyone on the team was drafted, or signed as a UFA by Polian.   So as long as the team is still elite, Polian can't possibly be getting worse at the draft.  A big part of the problem is that fans are paying too much attention to the draft and the preseason.  They are falling in love with players before they've ever played a meaningful down.  We dream about what a big DT like Taylor could do, and then feel betrayed when he doesn't make the team.  It's creating false crises that don't have much to do with wins and losses on Sunday.  This is why I hate the offseason.  There is simply too much talk about players we know nothing about.  In the case of a guy like Marcus Howard, we thought we did know something, and still got blindsided by his departure.

When it comes to the head hauncho, it's fair to attack the Ugoh pick.  They traded up to take him. The book on him at the time was that he didn't seem to care about football.  Many in the draft media questioned the pick.  They questioned his heart and motor.  Looks like the book was right.  That's one pick, though.  It was a big one, but it could have been worse.  The Colts did get two years of starting football out of Ugoh, and he's still on the roster, and still might start before the year is up.  That's a lot of production for a total bust.  There are plenty of first and second round picks who don't even produce that much.  There's still time for Ugoh to pull a Rob Morris, though I don't know if he has the guts to do it.

The lesson here is this:  we can't have unrealistic dreams about draft picks and then cry when they don't work out.  I've been accused of taking the fun out of the preseason by complaining about this before, but this is why.  It's not that fans dream or imagine too much.  It's that they freak out when their dreams don't come to fruition.

Jerraud Powers was one of the most criticized picks of this past draft.  Looks like he might start opening day.

Terrance Taylor was universally lauded.  To date, no one has even signed him to a practice squad.

That's the NFL draft for you.

The 2009 Season is just days away, and it's time to take stock of the Colts to see whether this year's team should be better or worse than last year's.  For the purposes of this exercise, I'm comparing the team to the START of last season.  That means things that happened during the year (like Addai getting hurt) don't factor in.

OFFENSE

How are the 2009 Colts better than the 2008 Colts at QB?  Manning is 100%.  He's clearly in zone this preseason and starts '09  light years ahead of where he was at the start of last year.

Brown is a dramatic upgrade over Rhodes, though Simpson is a downgrade from a healthy Mike Hart.  That's obviously not as important.

This is actually a close call.  Wayne is a year older (that's bad).  Gonzo is too (that's good).  So the question is if Harrison last year is better than Collie this year.  Yes.  Without question.  Garcon is back with another year's experience so that's good.

Clark is settling into his prime, but Robinson, Tamme, and Santi have all had a year in the system.  The TE corps is poised for a huge year.

This is tough.  Johnson is a major downgrade from last year's Ugoh.  Lilja is a major upgrade from the revolving door at guard.  Jeff Saturday is finally healthy after a camp injury made for a rough season. Pollack should be a year better.  Diem is the same.  All in all, the line should be at least a little better than it was at the start of last season.  Let's hope so.

LBs-BETTER

When two of last year's projected starters barely make the roster this year, you know you've gotten a lot better.  Session struggled early in replacing Hagler, but made the necessary adjustments and is poised for a big year.  Brackett is a year older, but Wheeler should be no worse (and hopefully much better) than Keiaho.

SECONDARY-WORSE

But not by much.  The same four guys are starting, but injuries are an issue.  Sanders and Hayden are dinged up now, and Marlin Jackson is coming off a major knee injury.  It's the same excellent group, but it's only fair to assume the injuries have slowed them at least a little.

SPECIAL TEAMS

K-WORSE

AV is coming off of major surgery and still isn't 100%.

P-WORSE

McAfee looks like he could be a keeper and might prove better than Hunter Smith, but for now, it's only fair to downgrade him for being a rookie with no experience holding.

RETURN GAME-SAME

Same worthless crap as always.  If TJ Rushing is healthy and has the job, I'll grade it as better.  If not, it'll be a season long game of "Guess who we all pray won't fumble"

COACHING STAFF-WORSE

You don't lose a Hall of Fame coach and get better. I like Caldwell, but he has to prove himself.

Also, I am personally  terrified that Larry Coyer will go blitz happy and ruin the season.  My confidence level in him has plummeted after watching ineffectual blitz after ineffectual blitz in the preseason.  I hate blitzes, especially on third and long.

OVERALL-BETTER

Upgrades to the LB corps, the running backs, and the O-line outweigh slight drops to the WRs, secondary, and special teams units.  The areas where this team is worse, it isn't necessarily much worse, and the areas where it is better, it is significantly better.  Last year's team was an 8 win club led by one of the best QBs in history.  It won 12 games.  This year's team is a 10 win team lead by one of the greatest QBs in history who is healthy to start the season.

That's reason enough to hope.

The final cuts have been announced.  Among the notables:

Mike Hart, Josh Thomas, Marcus Howard, and Terrance Taylor (4th round pick this year)

This means that Chad Simpson is the back up RB, TJ Rushing made the squad (probably as the return man), Curtis Painter is the third QB, and...

Bob Sanders is off the PUP list.

This means the Colts expect him to play before week 6.

Marcus Howard is the only huge surprise on the list, as he seemed to have great speed and real upside.  Painter obviously impressed the team enough to earn himself a roster spot, although the team will have another cut to make when Ed Johnson becomes available.  They may chose to cut Painter then, figuring that most teams will have already made whatever QB moves they were likely to make this week, thus making it safer to expose Painter.

UPDATE:

Here's some more thoughts:

• Hagler and Keiaho both made the cut.  It's amazing that just one year ago, both were 'starters' and now they can barely make the squad.
• As was pointed out in the comments, Andrus made the squad (so far).  That's probably just for kickoffs, unless the team didn't like what it saw when AV just missed that FG the other day.
• 3 QBs and 3 kickers.  Maybe it is a new day in Indianapolis after all.  Ed Johnson is coming back in a week, and I have to think that either Andrus or Painter won't last past the Jags game.

The news is that Dom Rhodes didn't make the Bills squad. First, that's sad for Dom.  He's a Classic Colt waiting to happen, and we wish him the best, but there's a bigger story here.

Assuming Dom is healthy, the Colts HAVE to take a serious look at him as their third running back.  Dom knows the system, and is a superior option to the perpetually banged up Mike Hart and the ineffectual Chad Simpson and Lance Ball.  Ball and Simpson averaged 2.5 and 2.8 YPC respectively this preseason.  Mike Hart is a fan favorite, but is coming off a blown ACL and battled injuries all preseason.  He had 1 carry for zero yards.

Dom Rhodes had 19 carries for 64 yards (3.4 YPC).  That's not awesome, but it's essentially what he did last year.

As a third string back, he's a better option right now than anything the Colts currently have on the roster.

 

Simply because the readers demand it, I'm offering up my review of Quentin Tarantino's Inglourious Basterds.  For the record, I'm a sometimes Tarantino fan.  I respected both Reservoir Dogs and Pulp Fiction, but both crossed some lines that lessened my enjoyment of the movies (think: Stuck in the Middle with You).  On the other hand, I adore Kill Bill (both 'volumes'), and left the theater in pure awe after seeing Vol. 1.  So I came to Inglourious Basterds hopeful, but guarded. I saw the movie with my wife who has seen Pulp Fiction and the Bills, liking both.

Despite my well harbored reservations, it took all of 5 minutes to be convinced that Basterds was a wonderful movie.  From the incredible first "chapter" with Christopher Waltz as the unforgettable "Jew Hunter" Hans Lander, the movie is fraught with tension and brilliance.  Before I go further, let it be known that just as much as the Best Supporting Actor Oscar was unquestionably going to Heath Ledger for The Joker last year, so Waltz already has two hands on the statue this year.  His performance alone is worth the price of the movie, and Hans Lander will be long remembered as one of the best screen villains of this decade (along with Ledger Joker and Hugo Weaving's Agent Smith).

The second chapter of the movie introduces Brad Pitt's team of Basterds, US Jews assembled to beat the holy hell out of Nazis.  Pitt's performance is slightly distracting at first, but makes more sense as the movie moves along.  He's functioning as a modern day John Wayne, present more to be "the American screen star in a WW II movie" than as a pure 'actor'.  Basterds, like most Tarantino films, is a running commentary on cinema itself.  Everything he does is calculated and referential.  Pitt is a bit ridiculous, but then again, he's supposed to be.  You never forget you are watching Brad Pitt (unlike his turns in Snatch or 12 Monkeys or even Fight Club), it was distracting at first, but by the end of the movie, I was glad for it as his amazing Italian accent almost steals the show (just wait for it).

Unfortunately, there's only so much I can say about the movie without ruining it.  It is significantly less bloody than Bill, and less objectionable than Fiction and Dogs, but remember that's on a "Taraninto" scale.  It's a Tarantino film, which means it's wonderfully, viscerally violent.  To be frank, it was as emotionally satisfying to my deep seeded lust for bloody vengeance as any movie could be.  If you think it would be fun to watch Nazi's get the crap kicked out of them, then this is the movie for you.  The sense of just retribution for the crimes of the Third Reich was immensely gratifying.  Tarantino knows what moves young men and plays each note perfectly.

The movie is violent and funny.  The ending is brilliant.  Tarantino loves to build scenes to a Hitchcockian level of tension, but with him you know the bomb under the table is going off, and when it does, someone is losing a leg.

This movie is not as life altering as Kill Bill, but in many ways was just as enjoyable if not more so. It is much more accessible than Bill, but sacrifices nothing in getting there.  My wife and I both loved the movie, and I would pay to see it again in a heartbeat.

The preseason came to an (un)merciful, whimpering conclusion in Cincinnati last night, and it's finally time to assess what we've learned.

1.  Peyton Manning is ready to play.

In some sense, almost nothing else on this team matters.  We already saw last year that as long as Manning is healthy, he doesn't need an O-line or run game to win.  He was sharp all preseason, and is clearly on a mission.

2.  The offensive line will be a problem all year.

Charlie Johnson is the left tackle.  I'm still not ok with that sentence.  The line gave up 5 sacks of Manning in barely one full game of work.  Tony Ugoh could have won the starting job back, but he was terrible.  His play last night was rough to say the least, although there were problems all over the line, to be fair.  This was the biggest offseason issue for the Colts this year.  Lilja is back and apparently healthy, so that's a plus.  Still, there is some question as to whether this is a Super Bowl quality O line.

3.  Meet the new boss, same as the old boss.

Worried that there would be too much change in Indy?  If the preseason is any indication, there hasn't been.  The 2009 preseason looked pretty much exactly like the last 5 before it.  The Colts played one good game, one ok game, and two eye bleeders.  This is encouraging to me because it says that Caldwell didn't feel it necessary to come out and "prove" himself in the preseason.  He's comfortable enough to let the team go do what it always has done.

4.  Addai is healthy/Brown is good

The best hope for the run game is that the backs are better than we had last year.  Honestly though, it won't matter much if the line doesn't improve.  Still, expect big plays in the passing game from the pair of them.

5.  The Defense is not deep

The Colts have an excellent starting unit.  Did you notice, however, how little competition there was for starting jobs?  There is a big gap between the first and second units in Horsetown.  The Colts D looked bad in the preseason because the 11 starters (or even 9 of them) never played together.  The Colts have a few competent backups (Bullitt, perhaps Powers, Howard), but by and large this team depends on it's stars on defense.  If the first unit stays healthy, it will be very good.  If not, it will be a replay of last year.

6.  Special teams will always be a problem in Indianapolis

We've talked about this at length, but the Colts don't value special teams play.  They don't invest picks and players on special teams (and they shouldn't).  People love to kill the coaching, but the Colts simply aren't deep enough to provide the kind of top level athletes that make for a great special teams unit.  I expect the Colts to be about what they've always been on ST...weak.  And you know what?  It won't matter.  Still, McAfee has been encouraging at times, so there's always some hope for improvement there.

7.  Jim Sorgi is bullet-proof

As impressive as Curtis Painter was this preseason, he couldn't unseat Jim Sorgi, who though he played just a half of football, did enough to hang onto the #2 QB job.  Sorgi managed to lead a TD drive (and a missed FG drive) in just a half.  Painter never got going last night.  Sorgi is better right now, and will be the #2.  Let's pray it doesn't matter.

8.  The TEs are in for a big year

Manning threw heavily to his TEs this preseason, and for all the talk about Collie and Garcon, it was the big guys that made most of the plays.  Jacob Tamme led the club with 11 catches, followed by 9 for Dallas Clark.  Petrowski, Robinson and Santi had 8 more between them.  In comparison, The Colts top four WRs only had 19 catches all preseason.  Especially with line troubles, expect the Colts to go two TEs a lot, and for Manning to throw a lot of short routes to releasing TEs out of the backfield to deal with the pressure.

All in all, I'm pleased with how things went this preseason. The Colts looked like the same disheveled mess they always do, though not nearly as awful as they did last August.  No one new got hurt (other than Hayden who seems to be ok).  AV is back, though Bob Sanders is not.  As we all know from 2006, Bob can miss the whole year if he wants.  Just so long as he shows up in January, he's worth it.  Bullitt is a capable backup (one of the few we have).

2009 will come down to the same thing that 2007 and 2008 came down to:  Injuries.  If the defense stays healthy, it will be good. If it doesn't, it won't.  Sometimes, things really aren't complicated.

Manning will be Manning.  Freeney will be Freeney.  Keep the other guys on the field, and this team will win its 12-14 games.  In the end, the O-line will be the issue to watch all season.

It'll tell us how far this team can go.

Ok, crew.  Tonight's live blog will be a little different than the others.  I'm trying to find a format that will work during the season and be more 're-readable' than the free for all chat.

Tonight, only Demond and I will be permanently 'green lit'.  I'll post other comments as they come.  I'm looking for a more streamlined, easy to follow chat. Don't be offended if your comment doesn't get posted.  I'm looking for fewer  "Wow!s" or "Oh crap!s".  It's preseason, and it's time to experiment, so cut me some slack.

The blog will cover the first half only tonight.  The second half of the last preseason game is always loaded with the guys who are about to get cut anyway.

It's been a big topic around here recently, so I figured I'd lump several articles about Anthony Gonzalez in to one front page post.  First comes an entry from Kuharksy's mailbag.  A reader asked if the Colts have the slowest WRs around.  The answer from Scouts Inc's Matt Williamson?  No!

"I wouldn't say it is a weakness though at all. Collie is probably the slowest of the bunch and yes, I would say that Garcon is the fastest, but he is more of a build-up guy than Wayne and Gonzo, who go 0 to 60 quite abruptly. Don't sleep on Gonzo's flat out speed. He can really run. As can Wayne of course. I wouldn't say that any of these guys has the blow-past-you-speed that Marvin Harrison did in his prime though. Still, not a weakness."

"Also, Dallas Clark is as much WR as he is TE and is amongst the fastest TEs in the league."

Either way, Gonzalez should be on the field for 50 snaps a game, which is why Manning felt a sense of urgency with him in the spring and summer. "Most people throw the route tree when they work out -- one hitch, one slant, one out, one hook," says Manning. "You hit 'em all and you say, 'Good workout.' The way I think is, you master one route at a time -- one route a day -- and you throw the living stew out of it. I think I feel good about every route with Gonzalez now."

What's so hard about running a 15-yard comeback? Consider this: Because defenses are so diverse, a third-down pass play could bring two blitzers or it could bring bump coverage. Colts receivers must know how those schemes will affect the time Manning has to throw; they must have a clock in their heads plus the peripheral vision to know when to shorten a 15-yard route to 12.

Making those adjustments second nature will determine whether the Colts' receivers succeed. "Those sessions helped a lot," Gonzalez says. "Peyton's such a perfectionist. At the end of my rookie camp I got the sense that I was not good enough. So I asked Peyton what he wanted out of me. I remember this vividly. He said, 'I need to know every single play that you're exactly where I need you to be.' "

Interesting stuff and a cool quote.  I think it puts what King wrote Monday in perspective.  He's not paying close attention to the Colts right now, but knows that AG is on the spot. He sees one dropped pass, but probably didn't see the interference penalty AG helped obtain earlier in the game.  He looks at the stats, sees 4 catches for a handful of yards, and concludes it isn't going well with Manning.  I think that's a huge overreach based on too little data, but knowing that he was sitting on this story angle, I can see why he jumped it.

Since it will save me time, here's a couple of other quick links.  Dilfer puts Brady and Manning on their own tier.  They deserve to be there.

1. Peyton Manning, Indianapolis

Analysis: Ultimate coach on the field … processes and executes more information at a high level than anybody who has ever played the game … never has an offense functioned around one individual more than it has Manning … unbelievable durability, second only to Brett Favre … unrivaled combination of durability and dependability.

Don Brown is ranked as the second best rookie fantasy back, but I like what the author has to say about Addai too.

2. Donald Brown, Indianapolis- The Colts used a first-round choice to solidify the running game given Joseph Addai's past injury issues. Brown is a dynamic runner with good speed to the outside who excels as a receiver in the flat (48 receptions last year). He proved remarkably durable in his final season for Connecticut, piling up an eye-popping total of 367 carries for 2,083 yards and 18 touchdowns. I still believe that Addai has the potential to push back toward 1,000 yards if he can stay healthy, but Brown will have immediate fantasy value, particularly in PPR leagues.

Finally, no word from Caldwell who is playing tomorrow night, but we can bet we see much if any 18.

It's no secret that while my heart is firm entrenched in Indianapolis, I currently live overseas.  Because of that, I sometimes have to be creative about how to access Colts games.    The DirecTV Sunday ticket is cheap here in Argentina, so I'm a subscriber to that.  Unfortunately, it only gives 6 games a week, instead of the full slate.  So, for when the Horse isn't on my TV,  we've also invested in a Slingbox.  This nifty device allows you to watch your home TV (or in this case Demond's) from any computer connected to the internet.  Now, you can even watch it over an IPod Touch via an App.

Those solutions are great if you have enough time and planning, but what happens when at the last minute something goes wrong and you can't find the game on TV, or you are forced watching the Bills and Jets play in OT and are forced to miss the opening kickoff of the Colts game?

"Where can I find the game?" is perhaps the most asked question during our live game chats.  Well, now we have answer:  channelsurfing.net.  Here's is a review of the site by one of our readers, Cass:

*******

For the rest of the review, click here:

(18to88.com note:  We are passing this option along to our readers as a favor.  We make no endorsement of the site personally.  We've never tried it nor been to it.  We make no claims as to the legality of the site or what you might encounter when you get there.  All internet surfing involves a degree of risk, and you should have your guard up at all times.  We are not responsible for anything that happens to you on the site.  Please don't sue us or throw us in jail.  We are just telling you where you can find the game.  What you do with that information is on you.)