Welcome to the first "Postgame Mortem" feature.  It's hard to do any real analysis without watching the tape, but the night of the game we'll check back in with you and answer some of the burning questions that still linger.  Remeber, until I watch the game again, I reserve the right to change my mind.  These are strictly emotional reactions.

Reasons to Smile...

• The pass protection was exemplary. Our biggest worry before the game turned out to be one of the best parts of the day.  Charlie Johnson gave up one QB hit, and Diem got beat for a sack, but Manning was mostly clean and had time to work. 
  
• Jerraud Powers was everywhere.  Had he finished that big tackle on MJD on third and short, he would have been the player of the day.  Huge debut for the rookie.
• Actually, a massive tip of the hat to Polian for this draft class.  McAfee had a brilliant punt, Powers played amazing, Collie and Brown both caught first down passes.  The rookies played and contributed early.  McAfee actually had two punts, a 46 yard average and both wound up inside the 10.  Great day.
  
• The defense was judicious with the blitzing and it paid off. Coyer's decision to rush Garrard on third and fourth down at the end of the game left him with no time to throw.  The defense allowed just 3.9 yards per pass play.  Sick.
• Dwight Freeney. He's good, you know?  Also huge plays by Mathis and Brackett.  Hard not to love those guys.
• The Colts dominated the game in every statistical way but the one that matters...points.  This game wasn't as close as it played it out.

Reasons to Frown...

• The run game was a mess. I was fine with the modest production until the fourth quarter.  The Colts did manage to convert several key third and shorts with Addai pounding the ball, and there were only two carries for losses all day, but the fact that they couldn't pick up a yard in two downs at the end was sickening.  Neither Addai nor Brown had any room to operate.  Both were effective in the passing game, but ultimately the same line that did such a stellar job pass blocking was a disaster run blocking.
• Manning's pick in the first quarter was horrid. It was a terrible pair of play calls, as (ironically) it seemed like the Colts had a chance to just ram the ball in, but beyond that the throw was miserable.  The call was bad.  The read was bad (Wayne was double covered). The throw was bad.  Manning was mostly brilliant today, but that one toss altered the game dramatically.  I would whine about the fumble, but that stat about it being Addai's first fumble in something like 495 touches mitigates it.  Everyone fumbles sometimes, he fumbles so rarely it's unfair to jump him the one time a year it happens.
• The camera work was terrible.  CBS regularly failed to show the snap of the ball making any kind of reasonable tracking of the line or the number of rushers impossible.  I had hoped to have some good stats on blitzes or the line play, but found it nearly impossible to tell what was going on.  It was very disappointing.

Best Call...

• Going for it on fourth down at the end of the game. It didn't work out, but it was still the right call.  The play call (a run wide) left something to be desired, but up until he went down, it seemed like Brown was going to turn it up and seal the game.  If you can't pick up a 4th and inches to win the game, you deserve to lose.
  

Worst Call...

• Calling for a 52 yard FG with a gimpy kicker. The decision made no sense.  The Colts were better off trying to convert the first down than they were by gifting the Jags with 7 extra yards of field position.  It would have been fourth and 10 and I think the Colts offense was more likely to convert that distance than AV was to hit that field goal.
  

Best Play...

• Manning to Wayne for 39 yards on third and 13.  The Colts were facing a punt while trailing, and Manning came through with a great throw and a better catch by Reggie Wayne.
  

Worst Play...

• Manning's pick. It wasn't even close.  Awful.  Ok, I've killed him enough.  He threw for 300 yards and had an otherwise great game.
  

Reasons I'm Flyin'...

• That defense was incredible. Don't sweat the rushing yards, as I mentioned this morning, NONE of the new D line players was in today.  We survived a tough test without Ed Johnson, and I'll trade 5 yards a rush for 4 yards a pass any day.
• Reggie Wayne played perhaps his finest game as a Colt. No Harrison.  No Gonzo.  No problem.  He was dominant in every possible way despite facing double coverage.
• We are one game up on the South and our next 7 opponents went 2-5 this weekend.
  

Reasons I'm Dyin'...

• Gonzo. The only word I've heard is a sprain 2-6 weeks.  This affects the offense in so many ways.  Not only does it kill my "TEs with more catches than Collie and Garcon" prediction (which I said, barring injury, so it's a wash), but it dramatically affects the offense. Tamme and Robinson both caught balls early, but after Gonzo went down everything changed. Manning was force feeding Wayne all day.
• The run game is not good.  It's clearly not the backs.  It's the line.  There were no holes to run in.   Anyone who wants to kill Addai had better be able to explain Don Brown's 3.3 ypc and utter failure on third and fourth down.  The run game functioned all right at times.  The Colts picked up some good short yardage gains when necessary, but ultimately all that matters is the ability to run out the clock at the end of the game.  That isn't present yet.

The Bottom Line...

It's a win.  The Colts haven't beaten the Jags by more than 10 in Indianapolis since the AFC South started.  In some ways, this game reminded me a lot of both the Jags' and Titans' games in 2006.  Against an opponent that hates you, had all offseason to prepare for you, forced you into two turnovers without ever putting the ball on the ground, and rushed for 4.4 YPC, to come away with a win is a major accomplishment.  Last year, a tough call on fourth down against the Jags early in the season cost the Colts a division title and a bye.  This year, the fourth down pass fell incomplete.

Hopefully that portends better things to come.

no comments

PREGAME

It's almost kickoff time to the 2009 season.  I feel appropriately nauseous.  I'll be checking back in throughout the game with commentary and observations.

FIRST QUARTER

• The first quarter flew by as the Colts chewed up ground, but failed to score thanks to an awful pick by Manning in the end zone on the first drive.  The Colts have struggled to force the ball to Reggie Wayne who is perpetually double covered, but have still moved the ball thanks to great catches out of the backfield by the backs.  To top it all off, Gonzo has left the game with a knee injury.  On defense, the Colts had a solid series after giving up a pair of third down conversions, they stopped the Jags thanks to a huge Freeney sack on first down.  Apart from the horrible throw by Manning, the first quarter went as scripted.

SECOND QUARTER

• And the Colts second drive goes the way of the first.  Addai fumbles with the Colts already in scoring territory.  Two drives inside the Jags 30 yield zero points.  This is the recipe for an upset.
• The Jags ram the ball down inside the 10, but the Colts hold as Session and Hayden make nice plays.  On third down, Garrard sails his throw and the Jags wind up with a field goal.  The big play was a 22 yard run up the middle by MJD.  The Jags are chewing up yards on the ground, but are clearly worried about pass protection.  This is a team that HAS to keep games close because they will struggle to keep Garrard upright if forced to pass with regularity.
• This time they get it right.  The Colts again mount a long drive, made longer by a sack given up Diem to start the drive.  Manning completes a bomb on third and long to Wayne, and they matriculated the ball up field down inside the 10.  Three straight runs by Addai gave the Colts a 7-3 lead.  They've dominated the game, but it's too close for comfort.  The defense needs a quality stand here to give the Colts an extra possession before the end of the half.  CJ is playing well, but the right side is still a work in progress both running and passing protecting.
• The Jags third drive almost came crashing to a halt, but David Garrard threw off both Dwight Freeney and Daniel Muir, kept his balance and completed the pass anyway.  Later in the drive rookie Jarraud Powers made a sweet attempt to pick off Garrard, but couldn't hang on.  The Colts blitzed on third down, and again the Jags screened.  This time the Horse was better prepared.  Scobee banged home a long field goal with about a minute to play.  Indy has more more chance to get points and open up the lead before the half.
• The Colts drive ends on fourth down as neither Collie nor Clark could corral balls that hit them in the hands. Clark's wasn't a drop as Manning just barely overthrew him for what would have resulted in a field a goal.  The play was on fourth down and resulted in a 63 yard field goal attempt by Scobee, who didn't convert it.

THIRD QUARTER:

• The Jags drive stalls out as Mathis knocks down a screen, and on third down Troy Williamson slips to the ground as Garrard's pass sails incomplete.  The Colts start deep in their own territory, and need a long drive to get some breathing room.  With Gonzo out, Wayne is getting a ton of throws.
• And folks, that's why he's the best.  Manning takes the Colts on a MASSIVE drive covering almost 90 yards.  On it, he converts several huge third down throws (he's perfect on third down to this point).  Finally, he punishes the Jags with a sweet 35 yard toss to Reggie Wayne for a 14-6 lead.  Wayne is destroying the Jags to the tune of 133 yards.
• Folks, he's going to be a star.  Jarraud Powers just made an incredible play to break up a third down pass to Torry Holt.  The Jags go three and out as the Colts successfully blitz on third down.  That was a big time stand by the defense.  Two runs and an incomplete pass is a formula for victory.  It's time for the Horse to put its foot on the throat of the Jags.
• Close but no cigar.  Wayne drops a bomb after an incredible diving effort, and then comes up 2 yards short on third down.  The Kitties keep breathing.
• Swarming.  Freeney forces a false start before the drive even starts, and the Jags have no chance.  Mathis and Freeney force back to back incomplete passes, and the Jags punt bounces backward to their own 35.
• The door swings wide open again.  The Colts go three and out thanks to three ugly looking plays.  AV yanks a 52 yard field goal wide on fourth 9.  I wanted them to go for it.
• The quarter ends with the Jags driving.  Indy had them stopped on 3rd and 2, but MJD shook off a tackle by Powers and powered for the first down.  The quarter saw the Colts widen their lead, but opportunities were missed.  The game remains too close for comfort.

 

 

Tomorrow there won't be a live in game chat.  There's a couple of reasons for that:

1.  I want to enjoy the game with my family, and the chats chain me to my office with a two computer setup.

2.  The chats aren't re-readable after the fact.

3.  I want to start a new feature:  Key Stats

Key Stats will seek to track two or three important talking points during the game.  Obviously, it won't be hard to follow the YPC for Joe Addai, but if I want to quantify how effective the Colts blitz is, I'll have to take my own notes.  For now I'm going to be tracking the play of Charlie Johnson and the effectiveness of the blitz.  I'll do a post on the results after the game (Sunday night or Monday).

I will do an old-school in game update blog.  Several times a quarter, I'll post thoughts and updates from the game.

Seven of the 11 players who started Super Bowl XLII for the New England Patriots on defense are gone.

Seymour, Vrabel, Seau, Bruschi, Samuel, Hobbs, Harrison have all moved on or retired.

Interesting.

no comments

A word of caution to preseason prognosticators and fantasy players everywhere:  QBs don't always move forward.

It has come to my attention that a lot of people are expecting huge years out of many QBs based on what they did last year.  Lots of people look at a player like Phil Rivers (4009 yards, 34 TDs) or Aaron Rodgers (4038 Yards, 28 TDs) and predict huge 4,000 yard, 30 TD seasons for them.

In fact, 4,000 yard, 30 TD seasons are apparently being tossed out like candy now.  Check out this preseason prediction for Peyton Manning:

Peyton Manning, QB

Make no mistake, Manning isn't the same guy he was five years ago. Last season's under-the-radar offseason knee surgery caused him to start slow against a tough schedule, his offensive line wasn't as spry as it once was and the Colts struggled to get consistency out of their running game. Yet in what looked like it might be a "down season," Manning won the NFL's MVP award. He's probably not going to toss more than 35 touchdowns in '09, but he's also not throwing for fewer than 25, and he'll surely get you 4,000 yards and won't hurt you with many negative plays. Even if the elite upside is gone because of personnel, age and circumstance, Manning is worth drafting because he's phenomenally sound and clutch.

2009 Projection: 4,153 pass yds, 31 TD, 13 INT

Johnny O and Bobby K both have the same general theme today.

The Colts play the best players available.

Due to recent criticism (and I'm not going to link to the trainwreck article that started it) of Polian, some fans have been up in arms about the team cutting Taylor and Marcus Howard.  People have begun to question whether Polian is losing his touch in the draft.  There's one massive problem with that claim.

Polian drafted all the players who beat out the players he cut.

Do you think Polian cares if Tyjuan Hagler (who he drafted) beats out Phillip Wheeler (who he drafted) for a starting spot?  Polian has egg on his face (right now) over Ugoh, but he also drafted Charlie Johnson who replaced him.  The Colts haven't had to erase draft mistakes with bargain bin free agents or casts off from other teams.  They've replaced draft picks with draft picks.  There are only 5 players on the Colts that have been drafted by other clubs.  Two of those were last minute pick ups this weekend. The truth is that when a 6th rounder or a UFA beats out a 3rd rounder, it makes Polian look smart in the long run.  When that player becomes a star, everyone says, "Wow!  Polian hit on a 6th round pick!".  They forget that it means that he whiffed on the 3rd round pick in the same draft.  That's the nature of the draft.  After the first round, the difference in talent level starts to fall off precipitously.  In the end, a 4th rounder and a UFA aren't that far apart.  We only perceive there to be a big difference.  It doesn't matter that Polain has airmailed almost every 3rd round pick for a decade.  He's been money in other rounds.

The only way that Bill Polian could be losing his touch is if the Colts were somehow worse than they used to be.  They haven't been signing free agents, so virtually everyone on the team was drafted, or signed as a UFA by Polian.   So as long as the team is still elite, Polian can't possibly be getting worse at the draft.  A big part of the problem is that fans are paying too much attention to the draft and the preseason.  They are falling in love with players before they've ever played a meaningful down.  We dream about what a big DT like Taylor could do, and then feel betrayed when he doesn't make the team.  It's creating false crises that don't have much to do with wins and losses on Sunday.  This is why I hate the offseason.  There is simply too much talk about players we know nothing about.  In the case of a guy like Marcus Howard, we thought we did know something, and still got blindsided by his departure.

When it comes to the head hauncho, it's fair to attack the Ugoh pick.  They traded up to take him. The book on him at the time was that he didn't seem to care about football.  Many in the draft media questioned the pick.  They questioned his heart and motor.  Looks like the book was right.  That's one pick, though.  It was a big one, but it could have been worse.  The Colts did get two years of starting football out of Ugoh, and he's still on the roster, and still might start before the year is up.  That's a lot of production for a total bust.  There are plenty of first and second round picks who don't even produce that much.  There's still time for Ugoh to pull a Rob Morris, though I don't know if he has the guts to do it.

The lesson here is this:  we can't have unrealistic dreams about draft picks and then cry when they don't work out.  I've been accused of taking the fun out of the preseason by complaining about this before, but this is why.  It's not that fans dream or imagine too much.  It's that they freak out when their dreams don't come to fruition.

Jerraud Powers was one of the most criticized picks of this past draft.  Looks like he might start opening day.

Terrance Taylor was universally lauded.  To date, no one has even signed him to a practice squad.

That's the NFL draft for you.

The 2009 Season is just days away, and it's time to take stock of the Colts to see whether this year's team should be better or worse than last year's.  For the purposes of this exercise, I'm comparing the team to the START of last season.  That means things that happened during the year (like Addai getting hurt) don't factor in.

OFFENSE

How are the 2009 Colts better than the 2008 Colts at QB?  Manning is 100%.  He's clearly in zone this preseason and starts '09  light years ahead of where he was at the start of last year.

Brown is a dramatic upgrade over Rhodes, though Simpson is a downgrade from a healthy Mike Hart.  That's obviously not as important.

This is actually a close call.  Wayne is a year older (that's bad).  Gonzo is too (that's good).  So the question is if Harrison last year is better than Collie this year.  Yes.  Without question.  Garcon is back with another year's experience so that's good.

Clark is settling into his prime, but Robinson, Tamme, and Santi have all had a year in the system.  The TE corps is poised for a huge year.

This is tough.  Johnson is a major downgrade from last year's Ugoh.  Lilja is a major upgrade from the revolving door at guard.  Jeff Saturday is finally healthy after a camp injury made for a rough season. Pollack should be a year better.  Diem is the same.  All in all, the line should be at least a little better than it was at the start of last season.  Let's hope so.

LBs-BETTER

When two of last year's projected starters barely make the roster this year, you know you've gotten a lot better.  Session struggled early in replacing Hagler, but made the necessary adjustments and is poised for a big year.  Brackett is a year older, but Wheeler should be no worse (and hopefully much better) than Keiaho.

SECONDARY-WORSE

But not by much.  The same four guys are starting, but injuries are an issue.  Sanders and Hayden are dinged up now, and Marlin Jackson is coming off a major knee injury.  It's the same excellent group, but it's only fair to assume the injuries have slowed them at least a little.

SPECIAL TEAMS

K-WORSE

AV is coming off of major surgery and still isn't 100%.

P-WORSE

McAfee looks like he could be a keeper and might prove better than Hunter Smith, but for now, it's only fair to downgrade him for being a rookie with no experience holding.

RETURN GAME-SAME

Same worthless crap as always.  If TJ Rushing is healthy and has the job, I'll grade it as better.  If not, it'll be a season long game of "Guess who we all pray won't fumble"

COACHING STAFF-WORSE

You don't lose a Hall of Fame coach and get better. I like Caldwell, but he has to prove himself.

Also, I am personally  terrified that Larry Coyer will go blitz happy and ruin the season.  My confidence level in him has plummeted after watching ineffectual blitz after ineffectual blitz in the preseason.  I hate blitzes, especially on third and long.

OVERALL-BETTER

Upgrades to the LB corps, the running backs, and the O-line outweigh slight drops to the WRs, secondary, and special teams units.  The areas where this team is worse, it isn't necessarily much worse, and the areas where it is better, it is significantly better.  Last year's team was an 8 win club led by one of the best QBs in history.  It won 12 games.  This year's team is a 10 win team lead by one of the greatest QBs in history who is healthy to start the season.

That's reason enough to hope.

The final cuts have been announced.  Among the notables:

Mike Hart, Josh Thomas, Marcus Howard, and Terrance Taylor (4th round pick this year)

This means that Chad Simpson is the back up RB, TJ Rushing made the squad (probably as the return man), Curtis Painter is the third QB, and...

Bob Sanders is off the PUP list.

This means the Colts expect him to play before week 6.

Marcus Howard is the only huge surprise on the list, as he seemed to have great speed and real upside.  Painter obviously impressed the team enough to earn himself a roster spot, although the team will have another cut to make when Ed Johnson becomes available.  They may chose to cut Painter then, figuring that most teams will have already made whatever QB moves they were likely to make this week, thus making it safer to expose Painter.

UPDATE:

Here's some more thoughts:

• Hagler and Keiaho both made the cut.  It's amazing that just one year ago, both were 'starters' and now they can barely make the squad.
• As was pointed out in the comments, Andrus made the squad (so far).  That's probably just for kickoffs, unless the team didn't like what it saw when AV just missed that FG the other day.
• 3 QBs and 3 kickers.  Maybe it is a new day in Indianapolis after all.  Ed Johnson is coming back in a week, and I have to think that either Andrus or Painter won't last past the Jags game.

The news is that Dom Rhodes didn't make the Bills squad. First, that's sad for Dom.  He's a Classic Colt waiting to happen, and we wish him the best, but there's a bigger story here.

Assuming Dom is healthy, the Colts HAVE to take a serious look at him as their third running back.  Dom knows the system, and is a superior option to the perpetually banged up Mike Hart and the ineffectual Chad Simpson and Lance Ball.  Ball and Simpson averaged 2.5 and 2.8 YPC respectively this preseason.  Mike Hart is a fan favorite, but is coming off a blown ACL and battled injuries all preseason.  He had 1 carry for zero yards.

Dom Rhodes had 19 carries for 64 yards (3.4 YPC).  That's not awesome, but it's essentially what he did last year.

As a third string back, he's a better option right now than anything the Colts currently have on the roster.