PREGAME:

I'll be here all night, updating at least once a quarter.  I don't know about you, but I'M READY FOR SOME FOOTBALL!

FIRST QUARTER:

• Ok, so that's a good start!  Manning hits Clark up the seam (huh, where did I hear about that...?) for 80 yards and a score.  Can't beat that.  I've been waiting for Clark to actually score on that route forever.  This time he broke a crappy tackle attempt by the safety and took it all the way home.
• Terrible tackling mars the Colts first drive, as the Dolphins run it right down their throat, only completing a two passes for little yardage, and running for the rest.  Awful.  Awful. Awful.  The run defense could not have been more pathetic.
• The Dolphins force a punt as Joey Porter forces a quick throw by Peyton on third down.  The Colts kept Clark and Addai both in on third down play, with Clark releasing late.  If Manning had time, he could have found Clark in the flat for the first.  CJ got beat, and he had to throw before he was ready.
• The Dolphins have only thrown three times, and they've already picked on Tim Jennings twice, including a big third and five.  The quarter ends with them facing a third and short near mid-field.

SECOND QUARTER

• Finally, the Dolphins play into the Colts' hands by passing on 2 of three plays.  Both go incomplete, and the defense forces the 45 yard field goal.  The Dolphins got too cute and paid for it.  Still, two drives.  91 rushing yards in just over a quarter. 10 points.  Not a good start.
• The Colts third drive pays off with a field goal as Manning makes a nice third down conversion to Wayne to get into field goal range.  Manning had an open Robinson down the field on first down, but the pressure made him throw early.
• The Dolphins are dumb as dirt.  Despite running for big yards, they inexplicably switch to the pass.  The Colts secondary shuts it down (including a couple of good plays by Jennings).  That was a huge stop as the Dolphins threatened to go three for three in scoring drives.
• With 4:41 to play in the half, the Colts desperately need a long scoring drive.  The Dolphins start the second half with the ball, so a three and out could keep the offense on the sidelines for the next hour of real time.
• Nope.  Manning throws to Collie wasn't anywhere near open on third and four.  The Colts punt; the Dolphins get the ball at the 40 and should have the next two possessions.  Indy will do well to not be down double digits by their next offensive possession.
• Well, I suppose you could say disaster was averted.  The Dolphins still rammed the ball home for a field goal, but they did leave the Colts 40 seconds.    Manning is just 5/10 this half.  Collie and Garcon are never open, and there simply isn't anywhere to throw the ball.  Other than the one deep ball to Clark, Miami has owned this half with three scoring drives in four possessions.
• Manning hit Brown on a sweet play for 20 yards to midfield, and then hit Clark for a huge first down that was erased when one of the WRs didn't get up on the line.  On third down (after an overturned pick), Manning hits Clark down to the 31, and then AV slams a FG off the upright and through for a 13-13 tie.  That was about the most unlikely three points ever.

HALF TIME:

It's tied, but the Colts have to be worried.  Manning is hitting just 50% of his passes, and only three guys have catches (Wayne, Clark and Brown with one).  The D has to figure out how to stop the run or this won't be the Colts night. The Dolphins held the ball for more than 20 minutes in the first half.  Freeney has a coverage sack, but the truth is that he's been totally invisible tonight.

THIRD QUARTER:

• More of the same to start the third quarter.  The Dolphins chew up more than six minutes off the clock, but in the end, the Horse bends but doesn't break as Eric Foster breaks up a third down pass and the Fins miss a long field goal.  Indy needs to establish the run and keep their defense off the field.  They look gassed.  This defense looks indistinguishable from the recent Colts Ds, especially with Jennings in the game.  Pennington is going after him first on every passing play.  He's done ok at times, but he's the first target on third downs.
• The Colts go three and out as they are wholly unable to protect Manning.  The right side gives up a confusion sack on first down and on third and long CJ lets Porter force Manning into a deep throw away.
• Folks, this game isn't going to go our way.  The Dolphins held the ball for the entire third quarter except for three plays, one of which was a sack.  At this point the defense has nothing left in the tank.  I can't imagine Indy is going to win this game.  I know it's tied, but it feels like it's all Miami. They shouldn't throw another pass the rest of the game.  The Dolphins have had the ball for more than 33 minutes (of a max 45).  Ironically, the problem is only partially on the defense.  13 points in three quarters isn't bad.  The real issue is that they are out of gas because the offense can't maintain drives. 
  

FOURTH QUARTER:

• Touchdown Dolphins.  If they don't pass the rest of the game, they win.
• Chad Simpson is the definition of mediocre.
• Peyton Manning is the badest man alive.  He won't get 40 attempts tonight, but he is stone cold carrying his team.  The Colts scored (too) quickly to tie the game.  Nice fight from Dallas Clark and Don Brown.  Clark is having an All-Pro night.  We can only hope the offense sees the ball again.
• Stop me if you've heard this before:  The Colts D allows a long drive where they can't get off the field on third down and the Dolphins take the lead on a field goal.  Actually, it could have been worse.  The Colts get the ball with just under four minutes to play down just three.  This is more than I could have asked for at the start of the quarter.
• Hey!  Chad Simpson...he sucks.  Was that really a ten yard return?
• GO FRENCHY! GO FRENCHY!  This might be the best game of his career.  Incredible.  He totally set up the score by throwing deep on first down and throwing the screen on second.  :32 drive.  80 yards. TD.  Insane.
• Two minutes to play.  The Fins have 1 timeout.  They face a third and four.  They have more than 70 yards to go.  We have to win the game.
• BETHEA PICKS OFF PENNINGTON IN THE ENDZONE

I suppose I could just bury this in the links section, but since I actually contributed to it, it's getting its own spotlight.

Once again, I've chipped in a little over at Cold Hard Football Facts for their Monday Morning Hangover column. Whereas three of my four game writeups remain intact virtually as I wrote them, the lead story was beautifully edited.

You see, CHFF gave me the job of writing about the Jags game.  That was a delightful task offset only slightly by being given the responsibility for summing up Cleveland at Denver, which in my opinion should be punishable as a human rights violation.  So I happily recounted the tale of Kurt Warner completing virtually every pass against the Jags secondary, never dreaming that my humble words would be edited into an art form.

Folks, I really wish I could take credit for the gold that printed, but while the concept and some of the numbers are mine, I missed my chance to pile on the Sparkle Kitties (as they are now officially known on 18to88.com, except when I get lazy and still write 'Jags').  Fortunately, the good folks at CHFF cleaned up my mess, and created a beautiful new moniker for Mad Jack:

Jack "Tick Tick Tick" Del Rio

Damn! That's so good!  It should have been mine!  Just as I will forever laud Bob Kravitz for gifting us with the "Dumpster Fire", I will also praise CHFF for helping out with Tick Tick Del Rio, as he is now forever known.

By the way, has anyone noticed that Mike Peterson is playing real well down in Atlanta...  I'm glad he got out.

Random notes from a full Sunday of football:

• The Titans/Texans game was an entertaining a football game as a fan can ask for.  I've never seen so many unforgivable defensive lapses as the Texans had.  It wasn't that their D was bad, per sea, but they had three long TDs that looked like they were the result of blown coverages and terrible safety play.  Just a horrible job by their D-coordinator.
• Those two teams really fought for the win.  There was real spirit there.
• I understand the fair catch rule that sank the Titans, but it has to be changed.  I know it was applied correctly ala the tuck rule, but it's a crappy rule.  If the returner bobbles the fair catch, he should be fair game.
• It was interesting that Jeff Fischer got double screwed.  I've always hated the new "continuous possession" addendum to catches.  It creates a bizarre and unworkable double standard for what is and isn't possession of the ball.  I agreed with Tasker that the call on the Texans TD should have been overturned.  Fischer is on the competition committee.  I hope he can get both rules fixed.
• I really liked Tasker as a color guy.  Gus Johnson bugs me sometimes, but Tasker said several things that made me laugh at least.  Their discussion of all the excellent Johnsons on the field creeped the hell out of me.
• That loss had to wound the Titans deeply.  Sure, they could still come back and have a nice season, but for a team that has to play the Jets, Colts, and Pats in the next four weeks, they had better pull it together fast.
• The day couldn't have worked out any better for the Colts.  Any week where the Pats, Steelers and Chargers all drop games is a good week.  Indy needs to take advantage on their generosity by going 2-0 tomorrow night.
• The Jags.  Good Lord. 
  
• The Pats are not a good team right now.  Anyone who has seen their games should know that. Sure Welker was out, but wasn't that predictable?  He goes over the middle in the NFL.  He's going to get hurt eventually.
• Loved how Tom Brady "carried his team" by throwing the ball 40+ times even though they ran the ball effectively (4.2 ypc).  Mix it up there, Tommy.
  
• Baltimore is 2-0, but maybe we should be questioning their defense.  They've given up a lot of points (for them) through two weeks.
• Speaking of the Baltimore defense, how do the Chargers not assign someone to block Ray Lewis on 4th and 1?  Seriously, he's Ray Freaking Lewis.  I think someone should say in the huddle, "He's my guy".  Or, not.
• Mike Tomlin should be shot for opting for a FG attempt at the end of the game with the Bears.  From that distance and in those conditions, after Reed just missed, you have to go for it on fourth down. I felt like he gave that game away.
• The Denver Broncos are the worst 2-0 team in history.  There, I've said.  I feel better
• I don't buy the Packers, and I didn't buy them after last week's game.  I thought they got out played last week and were lucky to beat the Bears.  I thought Chicago was the better team before the season, and I still feel that way.

The nice part of the Colts not playing on Sunday is that I got to watch the games in a relaxed state of mind.  The crappy part is that I have to wait a day before rejoicing in the Pats, Steelers and Chargers going down.  The door is wide open for Indy.  A two game lead over the Titans and a game in hand over the other big three contenders is all you could ever have dreamed of after 2 weeks. They need this win.  If they blow the game tomorrow, it will feel eerily like Week 1 of last year.

One last thing I forgot:  the funniest thing I heard all weekend was the Spanish speaking ESPN Anchor try to talk about Chad Ochocinco..."Y Ochocino anoto noventa y un yardas con un touchdown.  Sabes que?  Me traba la lengua decir Ochocinco!".  How ironic.

Here's a quick addendum to my earlier post.   40 passing attempts is an arbitrary and useless description of "carrying your team".  I would suggest that a game in which your defense allowed at least 25 points is a better standard.  Why?  It's arbitrary.  25 points is a lot of points, and represents the kind of game that a QB is going to have to do super work to win.  So, just for comparison, I've tracked Peyton Manning and Tom Brady in all games in which their defense allowed 25 points or more to see who did a better job of "carrying the team" when they really needed it.  I apologize for not being able to screen out defensive scores, a project of that magnitude is beyond what I can offer right now...

Manning:

61 times in his career (including the playoffs) his defense has given up at least 25 points.  That represents nearly 4 full NFL seasons.  Roughly 32% (just shy of a third) of the total games in his NFL career, his defense gave up 25 points or more.  The Colts averaged 25.6 ppg, and their opponents averaged 31.7 ppg.  The Colts went 20-41 in those games (.329). 1/6 (11 games) of the games came in his rookie season of 1998.  After that year (the Colts went 1-10 in those games), the Colts went .380 (19-31) in such games.

Manning went 1393 for 2239 (on average 23 for 37, 62.2%), for 16,620 yards (272 ypg, 7.4 YPA), 112 TD, 74 INT (1.8:1.2 ratio), and a rating of 87.8

Brady:

32 times in his career (including the playoffs) his defense has given up at least 25 points.  That represents 2 full NFL seasons.  Roughly 24.4% (just shy of a quarter) of the total games in his NFL career, his defense gave up 25 points or more.  The Pats averaged 26.1 ppg, and their opponents averaged 30.1 ppg.  The Pats went 14-18 in those games (.428).

Brady went 721 of 1165 (61.9%), for 8255 yards (258 ypg, 7.1 YPA), 60 TDs, 41 INTS (1.9:1.3 ratio), and a rating of 85.7.

The Verdict:

It's basically a wash.  Manning's numbers are a little better, but they are basically the same as Brady's.  After Manning's rookie year, the difference in win percentage is slightly in Brady's favor (extrapolated over 50 games, Brady would have won 21 games to Manning's 19).  Neither the difference in stats nor in win percentage are very significant.

So when it comes to "carrying a team" you could basically say that Brady and Manning are about the same using this measure.  To figure out if their performance is particuarly good or bad, you'd have to compare it with a list of other QBs.  If anyone knows of a way to do that...please let me know.

CHFF has been pimping a certain stat for months.  I've long considered refuting it, but was never sufficiently annoyed until now.

They've been pushing the idea that Tom Brady is the best QB in football history at "carrying his team".  That standard is arbitrary defined as a game when he throws at least 40 times.  There are of course, tons of problems with this theory.  There is a huge difference between a team choosing to throw 40 times because of a strategic advantage and a QB who has to throw 40+ times because his team is trailing or can't run the ball.  To lump all games with 40+ attempts into one basket is foolish and misleading.

The misconception is that the team had their QB throw 40+ times because they HAD to.  That hasn't been true of the Patriots under Belichick.

You see this clearly in Brady's games.  Three times he threw ball more than 40 times in blowout games where his team won by at least three touchdowns.  In another game, the Pats won by 16 points. It can hardly be said that he "carried the Pats" in those games.  New England has a proclivity to throw when already leading by a lot.  In other words, Brady's "carrying the team" stats are padded because of the team's philosophy.  Brady's team averages 25.4 points a game when he throws that much (I don't have the time to filter out defensive scores, sorry), but if you take out the blowout games where it wasn't necessary, the number drops to 23.8 points. Beyond that his defense allowed an average of just 22.6 points in those games.  The Pats chose to pass; they were not forced to pass.

Compare that with Manning; he's never thrown 40+ times in a blowout win.  The Colts only have one double digit win in game where he threw 40+ times.  That's the difference between having a coach that calls off the dogs late and a coach that keeps throwing until the final gun.  Beyond that, Mannings' teams averaged 22.3 points when he throws 40+ times.  That's lower than Brady's mark for sure, but that "extra field goal" would only have made the difference in 5 of the 49 games.  Ironically, one was the game at San Diego two years ago when Vinatieri missed a short field goal that would have won it.  Simply put, Tom Brady's slight advantage in points generated when throwing 40+ times would not have led to many more wins at all.

There are two other factors to consider:

1.  The Colts defense gave up 27.6 ppg in games where Manning was forced to throw 40+ times

2.  Manning has had to throw 40+ times a whopping 49 times in his career.  Brady has only had to do it 25 times.   The Pats have had the luxury of letting Brady throw a lot only when it suits them to do so.  The Colts have depended on Manning far more often.  That creates an imbalance where one passer is set up for success and the other for failure.

Now CHFF is going gaga over Brady's record when throwing 50 or more passes.  When forced to throw that often, Brady has a great record in part because his defense only allowed 24.2 ppg in those games.  Manning's defenses?  31.6 ppg. That's a more than a touchdown difference.  Considering that four of Manning's seven losses in those games were by 8 points or less, I'd say that an extra 7.4 points fewer on defense would have made a big difference.

Tom Brady on the other hand?  Every time he's had to throw 50+ times in a Pats victory, his team has won by a 3 points or less.  Simply put, if Brady had to play those same games with the Colts defense he would have ZERO wins.

Brady's record when throwing frequently is impressive, but irrelevant.  His team's philosophy in blowouts lends to victories with high passing totals.  His team's defense has enabled him to have to throw 40-50+ times only when it suits the Patriots needs.

In other words, he's not really carrying his team.  His team is carrying him.

In case you haven't noticed, the gap between the top and the middle isn't very wide in the NFL.  Last week, we published our NFL predicted standings.  In the AFC, we predicted a straight chalk slate of New England, Pittsburgh, Indianapolis, and San Diego to go a combined 50-14.  This week, they were playing four teams that we projected would go a combined 27-37.

All four teams won.

No story right?  Until you realize that three of the four played at home, and the four of them won by a combined total of 10 points.  The biggest margin of victory was the Chargers who won by four, but didn't score the game winning TD until the final minute.

So what can we learn from the opening weekend in the AFC?

• The old guard is there for a reason.  They know how to win close games.  Teams like Jacksonville, Oakland, and Buffalo have to rise up and take wins.  The big dogs aren't going to hand them out.
• New England fans should get used to more games like last night.  We've seen it in Indianapolis.  Teams aren't going to let you fly up and down the field.  Prepare for long mind numbing drives with lots of 5 yard dump throws, while you hope your defense can hold up.  Teams don't want to "die quick".
• Can anyone even tell the difference between the Bills and Texans anymore?  I swear McKelvin must be Sage Rosenfels younger brother or something.  He was superbad.
  
• Wins are wins.  The old cliche that style points don't matter in the NFL is totally valid.  Anyone still down about the Colts 2 point win over Jacksonville needed only to watch last night's games to feel better.
• Pittsburgh could easily lay claim to being the best team in the conference if they hadn't lost Polamalu.  Now it could be Baltimore.  None of the other three powers were "impressive" at all.  That's the point though.  Impressive doesn't count.  Reason #578 why the NFL destroys college football (by the way Irish and Buckeyes, enjoy the rest of your utterly meaningless games.  Your seasons are destroy and it's only week 2!  The NCAA where every game counts...unless you lose, then none of them do!)
  
• Of the AFC teams that made the playoffs last year, only Baltimore won by double digits...and their game was tied with less than three minutes to play.  The only legitimate blowout in the conference was the Jets whipping the Texans.

Don't listen to Vegas.  Don't listen to stupid pundits.  Every game is going to be close.

Get you antacid ready.  It's going to be a long season.

One of the pleasant surprises for me yesterday was the judicious use of the blitz by the Colts.  I had publicly worried that the Horse would blitz too much and at the wrong times last week, but the end result was much to my liking.  I had planned to track the Colts' blitzes but found the CBS coverage problematically for getting an accurate count.  Fortunately, Paul Kuharsky has a great quote by Gary Brackett today.

Monday after he talked with one columnist before the crowd arrived in the Colts locker room, the linebacker fielded the same set of questions with a larger group.

How many times did you blitz against the Jaguars?

Brackett: Ten times, I believe, somewhere in that range.

How much more was that than last year?

Brackett: That’s about 10 more than we did in the past.

Now, I realize that GB was joking here.  And I'm not sure how literally we can take his assertion that the Colts blitzed about ten times.  But let's assume he's right for the time being.  The Jags had 55 offensive plays yesterday.  If the Colts did in fact blitz 10 times, that would mean the Colts rushed extra men about 18% of the time.  Last year, Indy led the league in rushing just three or four men a stunning 90% of the time.  This means that yesterday they almost doubled the number of actual blitzes, but would still rank the Colts near the bottom of the league in blitzing.

I can live with that.  More blitzing, ok.  Just not too much more...

In case you haven't checked out Cold Hard Football Facts today, I suggest you give it a look.

Why would you want to check out that Colts hating, Dungy smearing, Manning trashing rag, you ask?

Because DZ is chipping in there on Mondays.

Yes, that's right, despite raging against the dying of the light between their ears over and over again, 18to88.com has been asked to help out with the weekly Monday Morning Hangover column.

Now, before you charge me with rampant whorism, please understand that whores actually get paid for their work.  All I get for my efforts is a reputation and a temporary feeling of inflated self-worth that quickly degrades into a sick shameful pall over my soul.  What does that make me then?  Oh yeah...I guess that's not really much better is it?

Seriously though, a couple of thoughts on the process:

1.  I'll be covering the Colts' game each week for sure.  So whatever else, you can be sure I'll tell the cold statistical truth of the game, no matter how ugly.  What I write may not be pretty, but it won't be driven by any secret agenda to bow at the alter of Tom Brady.

2.  It's actually a much harder process than I realized when I agreed to help.  Yesterday, my submissions were sound (all the stats provided were the ones I came up with), but lacked that certain CHFF flair which serves to entertain and incite the masses.  The versions you see in the piece today were heavily edited by the staff who I assume are angry drunks slamming at their keyboards with crushed beer cans.  It shames me to admit that their versions of what I wrote are vastly superior to what I submitted.  I'd say it gave me a new found respect for what they did, but then the world would implode under the weight of the cosmic irony vortex which would open up above my head and swallow us all whole.

3.  Obviously, I'm watching every play of the Colts' game, and while I try to track the other games and watch whatever plays I can, ultimately, I rely heavily on the stats.  I learned a lot of cool facts and trends in the process, and it gave me new insight into the teams I wrote about.

4.  Thanks in part to sloppy communication on my part, there were some slight details that came out hazy in the final version today.  Here's what I was trying to communicate:

• Colts Jags games...5.1 has been the average margin of victory between the two teams in Indianapolis.  Games in Jacksonville have included a few blowouts on both sides.
• The five QB list involving Sanchez isn't just in a rookie's first game.  It's the list of the 5 QBs who threw for 250 yards when starting the season opener their rookie year.  Some other guys not starting the first game might have accomplished the feat.  I was only looking for rookie QBs playing in week one.  The final version could be misunderstood.