Here the statistical loose ends I've been pondering for the last couple of days:

1.  Is there anyone out there who still blames Addai for the run game? Through four weeks, you couldn't get two backs more similar than Addai and Brown:

Addai has been a little better than Brown, but the difference is negligible.  Brown had the one long catch and run against Arizona, but it was such a blown coverage, it's hard to argue that Addai wouldn't have done the same thing had he been in the game.

2.  The line has been markedly better according to FO. The pass pro is 2nd in the league (yawn), but the run blocking is up to 12th.  The Colts are 13th in power running, but still getting stuffed 24% of the time (27th in the league).  The Colts are more effective up the middle than running around either end.  The stretch play hasn't been working well in terms of generating yards, but the play action has been devastating.

3.  The Colts still aren't getting off the field on third down. They are 31st in the league in third down defense.  I've been scrambling to find out if they average yards to go on third down has increased over last year, but I can't find that stat anywhere.  My perception is that the Colts are giving up more third and mediums/third and longs than last year.  I attribute that directly to injuries to the secondary.  Sanders, Hayden, and Brackett should help that third down conversion rate.  Jennings, Bullitt, and Keiaho have played solid in their absence, but I would expect this team to start getting off the field more when they add three elite coverage players.

4.  A note on Tom Brady: This is who is he is folks.  More to the point, this is who he's always been.  I marvel that people act like there is something wrong with him.  He's not the guy who played out of his mind against weak teams for 10 weeks in 2007.  He's this guy.  His accuracy?  Totally normal for him.  He's completing 62.1% of his passes, that's the same or better than he did during the 2002, 2003, 2004, 2006 seasons.  His YPA is a smidge down (6.5), but considering that apart from 2007, his career YPA is only 7.0, it's not that out of line. His TD and INT % are a little down, but it's early.  His DVOA numbers are about where they were in 2005, and much better than 2003 or earlier.  The Pats are 3-1.  Brady isn't putting up numbers.  Isn't that who he always was?  2007 was an utter mirage. It was never realistic to expect him to throw for 4500 yards and 36 TDs.  He's not that guy.

Tom Brady is back.  Or doesn't anyone remember?

5.  The Colts schedule looks very manageable. Right, right, I know all games are tough in the NFL, but let's face it, some games are tougher than others.  Indy has 6 road games left.  The teams they play are a combined 8-15, with only Baltimore having a winning record.  They play two winless teams on the road.  The home slate?  A little tougher: 15-9.

6.  The AFC South has been a trainwreck. Apart from the Colts, the division has a total of ONE win against other divisions (Houston beat mighty Oakland).  The other three teams are 1-4 against non-South teams.

7.  Pierre Garcon has been great. He also has an astounding 6 penalties (true count) in 4 games.  He has at least one penalty in every game this year.  He still has a ways to go.  If he were an offensive line man, everyone would be crucifying him.  I love that both he and Collie have improved their catch rate though, and both have good DVOA numbers.  That's a big improvement.

Finally, I don't understand the Bob Sanders angst out there in certain quarters. 2006 was not that long ago.  I'd think people would chill out and realize that as long as he's back in January, we can make due in the short run.  Sanders is not a terribly expensive player.  His absence isn't hurting the team (though his presence will help).  I'm not sure why everyone gets all whiny about him missing practice time and games early in the season.

I've always loved High Fidelity.

One of my favorite scenes is when Laura remarks that what Rob is doing by releasing an album to the world is special because he's always been a critic, but by producing a record, he's made himself part of the discussion.

So, recently I accepted a side gig by writing for Cold Hard Football Facts Monday Morning Hangover.  This week you'll see that I covered the Jags/Titans and Jets/Saints.  Some poor guy from Seattle had to write about how great Peyton Manning is for once.

But instead of accolades, it seems that some people have the gall and temerity (not just gall mind you, but temerity as well) to dislike the piece that I so dutifully research every week.  CHFF's own Omnidouche (note:  it's actually Ombudsdouche, but I originally wrote what I wrote and have decided that it's funnier this way) has very unkind things to say about the people that write for the Hangover. In fact, he does a remarkable job of reproducing the IQ Test I had to pass in order to write for CHFF.  How did he know I worship Chad Pennington?

In fairness, I realize that most of what I write is heavily edited so I can't take it personally when someone doesn't like the final product.  I also have to realize that you can't please everyone all the time.  But in my defense, let me just point out that I've had to write about the Jacksonville Jaguars for four consecutive weeks, so I'm doing the best with what I have got to work with.  If nothing else, I feel that by contributing over there has lead to more pro-Manning environment.  Well that and #18 playing like few men in history ever have.

Anyway, I'm so hurt by the ripping the Ombudsdouche gave me that I've decided not to write for the Hangover next week.  Well, that and the fact that I'm traveling to a small town in Argentina and can't vouch for my internet connection, but acting like I'm mad makes for a more high drama blog post.

For better or worse, I've put myself out there.  I can't imagine the angst I'll feel if I ever get my book published.  Now I know how Bob Kravitz feels.  Maybe I should be nicer to him...

Nah.

I'm a fan.  Which means that as soon as one victory is notched, next week's game starts to worry me.  I started thinking about the Titans game during the second quarter of the Seahawks games.  Sad, but true.  By that point it was already pretty clear the Colts would be 4-0 heading into a Sunday night game against the 0-4 and reeling Titans.  I immediately thought about Jeff Fisher, and how he's the last coach I'd want to face in an end-of-the-world scenario.  Jeff Fisher doesn't give a crap.  His only motivation is to win.  He doesn't worry about being fired or what the press will say.

In 2004, I sat in my RCA Dome seat aghast as Fisher's team kicked onsides three times in the first quarter of a game.  The Titans later faked a punt.  I was furious.  I was scared.  I was impressed.

And that's why I won't sleep well Saturday night.  Jeff Fisher was born to survive the apocalypse.  Can the Titans be beaten?  Yes, obviously.  But the Colts will have to pass a test first.  The Titans secondary is banged up and playing badly.  It will be tough to beat the Colts playing straight up.  Which means Jeff Fisher is going to do something crazy on Sunday.  Something crazy smart.

Here are some brainstormed ideas of what we might see (it won't be any of these):

1.  Jeff Fisher will go for it on every fourth down fewer than five yards.

2.  Jeff Fisher will bench Chris Johnson and throw on every down.

3.  Jeff Fisher will punt on first down.

4.  Jeff Fisher will let Vince Young step onto the football field.

5.  Jeff Fisher will shoot taze Peyton Manning.

DZ COMMENTS:  You have to think we'll see VY in a wildcat set up, right?  That's going to happen for sure.  He sucks, but he always played better against the Colts.

Ten thoughts from Week Four:

1.  The tribute to Edgerrin James was the best moment of the day for me.  The crowd was screaming like the Colts had just won a nail-biter.  They packed some amazing highlights into the short tribute video.  You could tell how much it meant to #32.  Manning said he was almost choked up out there.

2.  Offensively the Colts were consistent.  They moved the ball well all game, but seemed a bit disinterested after the lead grew to 25 points.  Garcon and Collie continue to improve.  Addai is getting his groove back.  I still don't like all the runs to the outside.  It just isn't working.  Despite some obvious flaws, I'm giving the run game the benefit of the doubt.  The Colts are finally notching rushing touchdowns and even picked up four rushing first downs.

3.  Defensively, I'm impressed.  The tackling has been stellar thus far.  Lots of effort plays being made (Foster and Mathis come to mind).  I'll take 49 yards on 19 rushes any day.  Still not in love with Tim Jennings, but the secondary will get much better with Kelvin Hayden's imminent return.

4.  Tennessee.  The true dumpster fire.  Allowing over 300 yards passing to Garrard?  No interceptions?  Guess we know the game plan for next Sunday night.  (Fun fact:  The Colts next two opponents are a combined 0-8).

5.  Denver is 4-0, but they are really hard to watch.  Their next seven games?  New England, @San Diego, @Baltimore, Pittsburgh, @Washington, San Diego, NY Giants.  Good luck with that.

6.  The Jets can play some defense, but the team itself doesn't scare me.  Sanchez looked horrible.

7.  The November 15th game against the Pats is shaping up to be a big one.  That is as it should be.

8.  I don't get the retractable roof at Lucas Oil.  Most estimates put its cost at over $100 million, but it gets used for just two games a year.  It is nice and all, but I'd rather have that money back.

9.  How good are the Colts?  We are learning more each week, but it is still too early to know.  I'm seeing 12 wins on the schedule at this point.  I think the five remaining AFC South games will be difficult.

10.  There are a lot of unknowns, but 4-0 looks really good right now.

DZ COMMENTS:

Here are 8 more.  If ever there was a day to keep with the '18' theme, it was today.

• Dwight Freeney's play was inspiring, but Mathis was electrifying.
• Kyle Orton's game winning TD pass was the worst game winning pass I've ever seen...since his last horrible game winning pass three weeks ago.
• I know Jennings makes a lot of good plays, but only because they throw at him almost every down.  Still, he is drastically better than he used to be, and does a very solid job tackling.  He may be a weak link of sorts, but that's not necessarily a bad thing.
• I can't believe I'm actually worried about Charlie Johnson's health. 
  
• Garcon gets better every week.  I can't believe how much better these two WRs are than just two weeks ago.  I didn't think it was possible.  Like I said, I wasn't wrong to question their play through the first two weeks, but I was clearly wrong to say the O couldn't be elite until Gonzo came back.
  
• This defense is crazy good.  The Wildcat thing was a bit of a fluke.  When Brackett, Sanders and Hayden are back...watch out.  It just shows that the this D is clearly much deeper than I gave it credit for.  Mathis and Freeney have become utterly unstoppable.
• It's hard not not to believe in this team.  They could win 12 games by rolling out of bed at this point.  They play just 5 games against teams with winning records the rest of the year.  Four of those games are at home.
  

And finally,

maybe it's just self preservation, but I admit that while I thought the team could be THIS good for about a week, I got skittish during camp. I'm still not sold that the run game is quite good enough yet, but it's clearly better than it was last year.  It's the best of all worlds right now:  excellent, championship play, but room to improve and get better.

Colts 34  Seahawks 17

It doesn't get any better than that, folks.

PREGAME:

Demond is on his way to the Luke right now, and reports that Freeney is playing today per the pregame show.

Wow.  Hard not to love that guy.

FIRST QUARTER:

• The Seahawks picked up an early third and long as Wallace evades Freeney.  The Colts run defense is dominant early, however, and the Seahawks can't do it twice in a row.  Great run defense early, and Freeney is indeed playing and bringing the heat.  This was an excellent start for the D, and the Offense will set up at the 20.
• The Colts drive starts well with a play action pass to Addai for good yardage.  Manning hits Clark on a third and four.  Manning then hit Frenchy for a sweet 25 yard gain, right after Dick Stockton evoked Weird Al, saying that Manning was "like a surgeon".  From that point on, the Colts ran the ball on the next 5 straight plays.  Good running by Addai set the Colts up with a first and goal.  Then Brown pounded it in.  7-0 Colts.  A text book perfect drive.  Deep and short passes and a nice running drive.  Beautiful.
• After some terrible kickoff coverage, the Seahawks again pick up a first down quickly, then extend the drive further as Wallace evades the rush and scampers for a first down.  The Seahawks try to cute and a run wide and a flanker screen are smothered for losses, and on third down, he's forced out of bounds by Keiaho who was assigned to spy on Wallace.  All you need to know about this game on D so far is that the Seahawks have rushed 7 times for 11 yards...three on a QB scramble.  Again, the Colts start at the 20.  It's time to put this game away.
• Nope.  A botched stretched run, a batted pass, and pressure on third down=three and out.  Indy will punt to start the second quarter.  All things considered however, this was a good first quarter for the team.

SECOND QUARTER:

• The Colts D survives a deep ball aimed at exploiting Tim Jennings as Wallace overthrows him.  After a short run and a nice round of applause for Edge, the Colts blitz on third down and give up the first down.  After another short third down completion, Mathis got mauled and the ensuing penalty backed the Seahawks up.  On third down, Wallace scrambled, hitting a big play down field, but was flagged for an illegal forward pass.  It was a close play, and the Seahawks looked like they could have challenged.  They didn't.  Colts' ball at the 10.
• After a quick pass to Clark, the Colts got a huge break as Don Brown fumbled a ball along the sidelines.  The Hawks recovered, but just barely out of bounds.  Manning then hits Frenchy again on a wild floater for 35 yards deep down field after getting hit.  Frenchy broke free across the field and caught the ball for a big gain and first down inside the 20.  Addai does some dirty work inside the 5 before Manning hits Wayne for a TD on his first catch of the game and a 14-0 lead.  Amazing.  Manning is 10/11 for 127, a score and a rating over 145.
• The Seahawks do a nice job converting on third and long and piece together a real drive.  The main culprit is the Colts' secondary which has allowed Wallace to complete 82% of his passes.  The pressure bailed out the D after a first and goal however, as Brock and Mathis hammered Wallace on third down.  Mare drained a 38 yard field goal, but it was a good stand for the D.  The Offense has a minute and change to get points.  They also start the second half with the ball.
• Manning burns up the Seahawks secondary and quickly gets the team into field goal range.  Finally, with just 8 seconds to play, Manning hits Collie for an incredible 20 yard TD pass to end the half.  Collie gets his first career TD (a 20 yard strike).  It's 21-3 Colts at the half.

HALF TIME:

Here's everything you need to know about this half of football:  17/20, 220 yards, 2 TDs, a 145.8 rating  and on defense:  12 carries for 34 yards (2.8 YPC).

That will get it done every time.  21-3 Colts.

THIRD QUARTER:

• Utter and total domination folks.  5 drives.  4 TDs.  This one is capped off by Addai bursting up the middle on third and 1 from the 11.  Manning is incendiary right now.   The Colts are running effectively and I expect we'll see a heavy dose of both RBs from here on out.  Enjoy the starters while you can.  They are coming out early today.  28-3 Colts.
• No contest.  A hold on first down dooms the Seahawks.  The Colts D has played a masterful game today, allowing a completion % of 79%, but with only 4.8 YPA (including sacks).
• Well, it took all day, but Manning finally screwed up.  He tried to go quick on third down, and ended up throwing a bad pick on third and 10.  No big deal, but it didn't seem necessary.   Manning looked to trying to catch the Seahawks with too many men on the field.  He didn't.
  
• The Seahawks drive ends in ignomy as Freeney pressures Wallace, allowing Mathis to fly in with the tomahawk strip.  Keiaho recovers, and the D escapes unscathed.  By my count, that the third sack on the day for the Colts.
• The third quarter ends as the Colts cross midfield.  I imagine that Manning will finish out this drive and take a seat for the bulk of the fourth quarter.  Seriously, folks, I really want to see my dream scenario with Edge take place.  It could happen, right?
  

FOURTH QUARTER:

• Wayne drops a first down pass with the pink gloves, and the Colts drive stalls just shy of midfield.  After a penalty, the Seahawks get the ball at the 25.
• Dwight Freeney must be fine.  Not only is he playing with the Colts up 25 points in the fourth quarter, but he picked up a sack.  He has had sacks in all four games this year.  Rushing runs the kick back across the 50, and the Colts are in business.  It remains to be seen if 18 is in or not.
• Indy moves the ball a little, but generally looks sloppy doing it.  Manning takes a couple of shots, but the Horse extends the lead anyway with a field goal.  Seriously, Jim.  It's Sorgi time.
• Good Lord.  It's just turned into a bloodbath now.  Colts ball, first and goal at the 5 as Wallace gets killed again.  Oh! The humanity!
• Quick three and out.  3 more points.  34-3.  It's time for Edge's 80 yard run.
• Wallace scrambles for a garbage TD with less than three minutes to play.  It's utterly irrelevant.
• The Seahawks onside kick results in a desperation drive and another meaningless TD.  34-17 is your final.

END OF GAME:

All good things.  Ride the bull.  Do the bull dance.

This team is rolling.

Welcome to week four in the NFL.  The Colts have a two game lead over the AFC South.  Is it too early to start thinking about earning a division title and possibly a bye?  Not in my book.   Despite the Colts history of squandering them, I hold byes in very high regard.  Remember:  Even if the Colts had beaten San Diego last January they still would have had to win two more road games to get out of the AFC.  It's the difference between playing in Indianapolis instead of Baltimore, Pittsburgh, or New England in January. 

I have a weekly habit of staring at the standings and the schedule to figure out who to root for that week.  I'll root for anyone if it helps the Colts.  That includes the Jacksonville Jaguars (see last week).  Here's how I see week four.  Keep in mind that this involves predicting how you see the rest of the season playing out for the teams involved.   

1.  Jets at Saints.  I've been rooting for the Jets early and often this season (Houston, New England, Tennessee).  I really want them to win the AFC East because of personal animosity towards the Pats, but they need to lose this week.  The Jets are the kind of team that could randomly win 13 games, much like Tennessee did last year.  I'm not saying they will, but they appear to be in competition for a bye at this point in the season.  They need to lose.

2.  Titans at Jaguars.  The Titans at 0-4 would be incredible.  Needless to say I don't fear the Jags, and their best case scenario is an 7-9 season.  I still think the Titans will win some games this year.  The bigger the hole they dig, the more likely they call it quits at some point (like when the Colts beat them next week). 

3.  Ravens at New England.  This is probably the toughest game of the week to choose.  It mostly comes down to the records.  If the Ravens start 4-0 they will be firmly in bye-hunting mode.  I won't be sorry at either outcome, but I think you have to root for the Pats.  As if that's possible.

4. San Diego at Pittsburgh.  This one is fairly easy.  Pittsburgh is going to have a hard road towards a bye because of their division and their style of play.  San Diego, on the other hand, is a potential threat.  They play in a horrible division where they are handed five or six wins.  This advantage makes 12-13 wins very reachable.  I'm firmly in the Steelers camp here. 

Overall, I think the Colts are in great shape to win 12 games and earn a first round bye.  The AFC doesn't scare me this year.  There are some good clubs, but no one who threatens to run out and win 14 games.  Except maybe the Colts. 

As part of the Bloguin network, I often get the chance to interact with bloggers from other cities.  Today, I'm trading shots with Chris from Seahawkaddicts.com.  Here's a sampling of what to expect from the Hawks this week.  Here's the link to my answers to his questions on his site.

1. DZ:  Describe the difference it makes to the Hawks having Hasselback verses Wallace under center.

Chris:  Hasselbeck is unequivocally the better quarterback - he has a good arm that is very accurate, he is cerebral and generally knows when to make a risky decision or and when not to. He manages a game better than most quarterbacks in the league, and is one of the funniest interviews in sports. Admittedly, that's not really relevant to the question, but its very true, the guy is hilarious.

Wallace is... decent. He's not great. He has two main tools that Hasselbeck lacks, namely a strong deep ball (though in last week's start against the Bears it was not an accurate deep ball) and excellent mobility and speed. Last week he used the mobility to evade an almost unrelenting blitzing Bears defense, but refused to run for any first downs despite having wide open field in front of him. Wallace can manage a game, he proved last year that he is a capable player who will, in general, do what a backup is supposed to do: win 50% of the games while the starter heals up. It will be up to Jim Mora and Offensive Coordinator Greg Knapp to allow Seneca to go wild if they want to compete in this game -- you can't play to not get hurt.

Chris:  I think it's been a mixed bag. Mora did pretty quickly relent and say that he was just overly emotional, but did hold fast to the idea that Mare just can't miss those kicks. Still, Mare has been gold for the Seahawks thus far and his kickoffs are among the best in the league. Considering that our coverage team is among the worst in the league, that is immeasurable.

I think the fans are generally spreading blame around for the Bears loss. There were 100 ways to win that game. Seneca Wallace made some awful decisions, he made a number of errant throws off his back foot, and again, he refused to run likely because Mora and Knapp didn't want to risk injury. TJ Houshmandzadeh did not get open enough and when he was open the ball was missing him; he also had a huge fumble on the Seattle 42, only his second fumble in 7 seasons. Greg Knapp's play calling left a lot to be desired, including a 3rd-and-1 reverse to Deion Branch, back for his first week fresh off a leg injury. That's who I want to rely on in the open field! That was a loss of 8 and killed a solid drive. Jim Mora had an absurd challenge on a clear touchdown early in the second half that wasted a timeout in a game that was clearly going to be close. Et cetera.

Chris:  Do you even have to ask? No one in the league runs a game like Peyton Manning. The Colts run arguably the simplest offense in the league, but no one can consistently stop it, because no one can out-game Peyton Manning. His understanding of the game is unparalleled in the NFL currently, and probably historically. The myriad looks a defense can throw at a QB now, the different levels of blitzing and stunts and so forth... none of it phases Manning because he is the ultimate student of the game. Dallas Clark gives cause for concern too, but we have a little trick up our sleeve -- not only is Aaron Curry solid in pass coverage, but backup linebacker Will Herring (who is starting in place of injured Leroy Hill) was a safety for 3 years at Auburn before moving to linebacker. He is one of the best cover LBs in the NFC (though his game lacks elsewhere).

Chris:  I think the fans have welcomed Edge to the team, and we're excited to see what he can do, but he is clearly the backup running back. His arrival lacked fanfare, and his performance thus far in the season has not shown us a whole lot (17 carries for 43 yards), He is clearly a quality human being though, and I think everyone likes him just fine, but until he shows something on the field, he's still the third RB in most fans hearts (behind every Hawk fans favorite RB project from last year, Justin Forsett - 10 carries for 56 yards).

5. DZ:  The Seahawks pull off the upset on Sunday if they...

Chris: ...can score touchdowns. Well, duh, but last week we had six solid drives that ended in six stalled drives and field goal attempts. Mare missed two field goals, yes, but when you ask a guy to kick six in a game you're more likely to miss. The Hawks offense is not great, but it is good. Nate Burleson is one of the more dynamic guys on the field every time the ball is in his hand. Houshmandzadeh is a threat to pull in anything near him. TE John Carlson is among the best young tight ends in the league, and lead the team in receptions and yards last year in his rookie effort. Our patchwork offensive line has been very solid despite constantly moving parts (you'll be seeing our preseason third string LT, third string LG, first string C, second string RG, second string RT).

Seneca needs to make fewer mistakes and get the ball to the open guy down the field. John Carlson and TJ Houshmandzadeh can work the middle like few other tandems in the league (I believe you guys have a similar tandem). Last week, Seneca probably missed two or three touchdowns with those guys. If he can be solid, he can give us a chance to stay in it.

Our Defense will need to be better than they were last week, which is saying a lot because they were actually very good last week (despite the 25 points on the board). It looks like our secondary will be almost all healed for the game, though Pro Bowler Marcus Trufant remains on the PUP list until November 1. Ken Lucas is still a solid press corner, though he has had a groin injury over the last week and a half, so his leg strength might not be what it needs to be by Sunday. Josh Wilson is likely to play in his first week back from a high ankle sprain two weeks ago. He is fast and a ball hawk, leading the team in interceptions last year at the elvenly height of 5'9". Kelly Jennings is our nickelback, a former first rounder who hasn't really panned out but has shown marked improvements this offseason.

Ultimately, it's about getting to Manning. We've got the guys who can do it, its just a matter of whether he can outmaneuver us. Gulp.

Chris:  Well, I would have said Dwight Freeney vs. our third-string left tackle Brandon Frye, but Freeney was kind enough to sit this sucker out (hey, it's only fair, we're missing 10 starters). Dallas Clark is also concern, but after a couple of big weeks I think he's going to be pretty well gameplanned for. Our Free Safety is a hybrid CB/FS who can play down in press coverage and has been our nickelback in years past. I think Babineaux can match up with him often, and as mentioned earlier, our linebackers are decent in coverage. Reggie Wayne is probably the bigger threat against our somewhat depleted secondary -- though, he's be a big threat against our full-health secondary too. Wayne is a beast.

Chris:  The nerves are not so much about the record -- both the Bears game and the 49ers game turned on a small number of errors that are totally coachable. We're very nervous about this injury bug that won't get out of town. Last year we had five WRs on our injured reserve and all five starting linemen, in addition to three broken hands on our three defensive pro bowlers from the year prior (Trufant, Kerney, Tatupu). That's bad luck.

Right now we are missing the following starters: QB Matt Hasselbeck, LT Walter Jones, LG Rob Sims, RT/backup LT Sean Locklear, LB Leroy Hill, LB Lofa Tatupu, CB Marcus Trufant, CB Josh Wilson (50/50 to return this week), CB Ken Lucas (75/25 to return this week, but only played half a game vs Chicago due to a flare up). It's one thing to have injuries, but every injured player is a projected starter and four of them have a combined 10 Pro Bowls. Yikes.

That's not an excuse though, we lost both games fair and square and they were both utterly winnable games. In the SF game, poor gap control - once by Aaron Curry and more dramatically by Patrick Kerney -- led two 79-yard and 80-yard touchdown runs. Take those idiotic plays out and you've got a very close game. Last week it was the litany of errors I mentioned above and some I didn't. We're not losing because of injuries, but the fans are getting really, really tired of them.

Chris:  I think most fans were ready for Holmgren to move on, but a lot of people are still warming up to Mora. I would say his approval rating is around 70%, but if this were, say, New York, it'd be probably 25% (in other words, we're not exactly hard on our coaches / players in Seattle. I personally think that Mora has done a very good job with this team. His approach is good and he appears to be making none of the mistakes he made in Atlanta (though, he's still making plenty of mistakes). Bringing Greg Knapp over is, so far, the only thing that I'm concerned with. Knapp calls a decent game, but some of the things he relies on just seem stupid. You look at certain play calls and its just infuriating. Clock management needs some help, too, but not nearly as much as Holmgren did.

Chris:  I would never say anything to invoke the rage of Peyton Manning -- I've seen Deliverance enough times to know to avoid that mistake. Nah, I'm just kidding around, Manning isn't some ol' dumb hick from the middle of West Virginia, he just looks and sounds like one. I'm actually glad that Indiana has a team that isn't utterly embarrassing, hopefully a similar economy and population will follow soon thereafter? Holding out hope.

Big thanks to Chris for his great answers.

I woke up this morning not planning on doing a major post.  I was up late working on 18 Plays.  I have 'real job' responsibilities to tend to.  I just didn't have the time.

Most importantly, there was nothing to say.  The Colts played great.  The schedule looks sound.  There are injured players, but no real concerns.  When there is no real angle on a day, I try to keep my mouth shut.  Coming up with stories is hard work.  I refuse to just write garbage to fill this slot each morning.

Not everyone works so hard.  Some columnists are so incredibly lazy that they'll just write whatever so long as they can fill a page of print.

Apparently, that's who Bob Kravitz is.

Kravitz wrote a column today saying the Colts will lose in the first round of the playoffs.  That's no crime, per sea, and there could be valid reasons for holding that opinion.  I can think of lots of reasons this season might not work out:  teams clamp down on Wayne/Clark, the run game vanishes at the wrong time, injuries on defense mount instead of recede, Caldwell goes conservative in a big game, ect.  I'm not saying those are probable, but they are reasonable and it is possible to make a sound argument around some of them.  It would take some work, creative thinking, and sound research. But, if one is going to say the Colts aren't for real, you'd had better give some reasons for it.

Bob doesn't give any.  Instead, his argument is more simplistic:

After Sunday night's game in Glendale, Ariz., Wayne joked with me in the locker room.

"Hey, you picked us to lose," he said, smiling. "What's up with that?"

"Yeah, I picked you to lose," I told him. "Every year in the playoffs I pick you to win, and where does that get me?"

Until further notice, these are still the Atlanta Braves of the NFL. What they are doing, what they have done, is absolutely startling. What's this now? Twelve straight regular-season victories? The remarkable has become commonplace. Parity, it seems, is for everybody else.

And yet, without winning in January, it doesn't seem to matter quite as much.

So Bob has no reason for ripping the Colts other than irrelevant games that happened 5 years ago.  The truth is this column is lazy.  Bob had nothing to write today, and he's been pretty easy on the Horse recently, so for no reason at all, he turned his pen on them.  No analysis.  No logic.  Just emotion and recrimination.

He does quote one stat about the Colts' points production in the playoffs.  Of course that goes back to 1999 and there's only two players from that offense still around (Manning and Saturday).  Hell, it goes back to the 41-0 game after the 2002 season, and the only guys on offense still here from that game are Manning, Wayne, and Saturday.

He kills the Colts for losing in San Diego, but that was because he was too stupid to see the flaws in that team and wrote a big column about how they were sure to win when anyone with eyes knew it was going to be a tough game to come away with.

There's no analysis in his piece. There's no explanations, true or false.  He doesn't provide any reasons why the Colts lost those games that might be applicable to this season.  If anything, the entire story line on the Colts has been CHANGE for the past 6 months.  It would seem logical to assume things would be different this year.  Bob, however, focuses on the one thing that is the same:  18.  His only 'logic' is that he subtly insinuates that it's because Peyton Manning is a choker:

For all the regular-season greatness, for all the gaudy numbers, the bottom line is that the Colts are 7-8 in the playoffs during the Manning era. In those eight losses, the Colts have averaged a meager 13.6 points per game, despite the widely held perception it's the defense that holds the Colts back.

I've seen this movie before.

So have you.

Go ahead and have Super Bowl dreams, but do so at your own peril.

Ah, so that's the Colts' problem?  Manning?  His 90+ rating in the last three losses are the reasons the Colts didn't win?  Did he even watch those games?  He wanted Dungy fired for the playoff losses, and now Tony is gone, but Kravitz STILL wants to pile on.

It must be Manning.  He clearly blames Manning for everything that has gone wrong...every bad call, every injury, every tough break in the past decade.

I'm not going to go through the normal litany of reasons why this kind of thinking is stupid.  I've done it scores of times.  At this point, if you can't accept that the NFL playoffs have become a royal crap shoot every January, there's not much more that I can do to convince you.

But surely, SURELY after what we've seen Manning do already this year, we can elevate the discussion of the Colts beyond the level of "Manning is a choker". Even Bill Simmons can see that's not true.

All the rest of us can.

Bob Kravitz can't.

He's lazy.  Not because of what he said.

Because of how he said it.

Just a quick note:  Due to work obligations, I might be more scarce for a few days (though I always squeeze in what I can).  As a parting gift, here's the newest 18 Plays Podcast.  Demond and I discuss Sunday night's game in depth. 18 Plays is brought to you by Broad Ripple Tree Service.  If you call for an estimate, you may just luck out and get a personal visit from a surly blogger/pleasant professional arborist.  As always, you can direct down load the podcast, listen in the embedded player, or subscribe via ITunes.

One note I meant to mention that didn't make it in was that Bethea said his own name in the introductions and pronounced it "Bethe-uh" instead of the new fangled "Beth-A" that he apparently asked the media to say.  Seriously, if he's going to say his name one way, shouldn't the rest of us get to as well?