Vontae Davis has been the Colts' best cover corner this season, but struggled against Andre Johnson and the Houston Texans on Sunday. Davis hasn't been as good as hoped after trading away a second and sixth round pick for the young cornerback. Although he has the best pure cover skills on the team, he's struggled to track the ball in the air, leading to completions that should have been stops for the young defender. 

On Sunday, this was exactly what happened, as Davis allowed Schaub to complete eight of ten passes in his direction  for 119 yards. Why did Davis allow such big numbers? Here's a detailed look at how they happened. 

With Week 15 in the books, let's take a look at the AFC Playoff picture, where the Colts stand, and who to root for in Week 16, in our weekly look at the Colts Path to the Playoffs:

With week 15 losses from the Jets and Steelers, the Colts are the most "clinched nonclinched playoff team" in the history of history, with a ~99.97% to make the playoffs. In fact, there's only one scenario, involving every NFL game over the final 2 weeks, in which the Colts can miss out on the playoffs. You can view that scenario here, and it comes courtesy of Matt Grecco of Stampede Blue.

After the jump we'll look at this week's key match-ups and who Colts fans should be rooting for!

Today we’ll discuss rookies, big play offense, and injuries.  As usual, all quotes are courtesy of the Indianapolis Colts PR Department.  And now for the Notebook:

Chunk Plays

As you may have noticed, and as many Steelers fans would agree, Bruce Arians has a certain affinity for the big play, or chunk play, as he likes to say – gaining yards, usually through the air, in large chunks.  So great is his love for dramatic, downfield deep passes, that he has taken some criticism for being almost too aggressive.  One of the positive aspects is how demoralizing these big plays, like T.Y. Hilton’s 61-yard touchdown catch last week, can be to an opposing defense – when they work.  Still, it’s always a relief to see them just move the chains on third and short, and keep the offense on the field. 

The Colts week 15 loss to the Texans, while expected and predicted by many, was frustrating. Their defense performed better than expected, and their offense had the ball with a chance to take the lead in the 3rd quarter, but, as is often the case with young teams, they just couldn't get out of their own way, and their mistakes eventually did them in.

While they'll likely look back on yesterday and wonder, "what if?", their pontificating will have to wait, for now they must put the loss behind them and focus on the here and now: beating Kansas City and clinching a playoff berth.

There's not much to break down from the game: block JJ Watt, cover Andre Johnson, clean up the penalties, and what the heck Bruce Arians? Instead, after the jump, we'll talk about some interesting stats and off-season awards.

On Sunday, the Colts lost to the Houston Texans 29-17.  Today, we’ll discuss some of the players’ and Bruce Arians’ takes on what went wrong, as wells as the team’s focus moving forward.  As usual, quotes are provided by the Indianapolis Colts Public Relations Department.  Now, on to the notebook:

Owning Their Mistakes

If you only knew that the Colts defense had allowed only one touchdown and 22 points (the Texans’ other TD was on special teams), Andrew Luck had a 95.6 quarterback rating with no interceptions, and Vick Ballard ran for 105 yards on 18 carries, you might think the Colts had pulled off another unlikely victory.  There is, of course, more to the story. 

Mistakes abounded for the Colts on Sunday.  The injury-decimated offensive line was tormented by the Texans’ pass rush, namely the incomparable J. J. Watt, who finished the game with 10 tackles (all solo), and 6 for a loss, including 3 sacks.  There were also several penalties, a blocked punt returned for a touchdown, and a game-changing fumble at the goal line. 

In the second quarter, sandwiched between two brilliant three-and-outs by the Colts defense, Indianapolis drove down to the Houston 1-yard line where running back Mewelde Moore had a ball carrier’s worst nightmare, a goal line fumble.  The ball was knocked loose and recovered by none other than J. J. Watt. 

The Colts entered their week 15 match-up with the Houston Texans controlling their fate in the AFC South: win out, and they would reclaim their place atop the division. The game didn't turn into the blowout that many - including myself - predicted it would be, as the Colts were able to keep it close, cutting the lead to 6 for a good portion of the second half - before finally succumbing to their mistakes.

And really, it's their mistakes - and some questionable refereeing - that we should focus on here. Sure, the Colts were unable to stop Andre Johnson early, and JJ Watt gave them fits all day, but a Mewelde Moore fumble on the goal line, a blocked punt for a TD, countless questionable coaching decisions, and 8 penalties were more than enough to make up the difference in a 9-point game.

Where do the Colts go from here? Well, most likely, it's still to the playoffs. They still have to win one of their last two games - either at Kansas City or at home against the Texans in week 17 - to make it official, but, barring a disaster, that will happen. The more alarming issue for this Colts team is that they've yet to play a complete game all year, instead putting together enough brilliant flashes to overcome a series of sub par opponents. One has to wonder if the Colts will be able to put together a 60-minute game this season. If they hope to be anything more than a nice story and one-and-done in the playoffs, they'll likely have to.

The Indianapolis Colts will likely win multiple division titles during the Andrew Luck Era. They were hoping the first of those titles would come in 2012. Penalties, mental mistakes, and poor coaching were all that stood in their way. The youth that had carried them to 9 wins prevented them from getting their 10th. But, it was only a speed bump, not the end of the road, and if these Colts have taught us anything, nothing is over until it's over.

After the Jump, we'll do some quick thoughts:

The Colts fell to the Texans 29-17, putting an end to any thoughts of winning the division. We'll talk about the game LIVE at 4:30pm ET. Tune in!

Here's your open thread for the Colts and Texans.

Remember to follow all your favorite Colts Authority writers and "honored alumni" on Twitter as well:

Nate Dunlevy, Greg Cowan, Todd Smith, Kyle Rodriguez, Scott Kacsmar, Luke Dunlevy, Laura Calloway, Brent Fatig, Lou Pin, Josh Boeke, and Marcus Dugan

Here's the Colts Gameday Follow list.

We'll have post-game coverage here on CA, but also check out Todd, Kyle and me at Bleacher Report today as well.

Also, catch me on 1070 the Fan at 8 pm with Jersey Johnny after the game.

This week, I got a chance to exchange some questions with Texans' blogger Claire Mullins, part of the wonderful team at State of the Texans. I had a few questions for her in regards to this week's matchup, playing a Texans' team that we haven't seen matched up against this year's Colts squad. She gave us some great, detailed answers, and allowed me to share some opinions as well. You can see my answers to her questions here.  See her insight after the jump!

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Good morning, friends, Hoosiers, and Colts fans everywhere.  It's time to pick some NFL games. 

Every week, the experts, pundits, and talking heads try to predict the winners of every matchup in the league.  Sometimes they look like geniuses, and sometimes they...well, they don't.  This year, we at the Colts Authority have gotten in on the fun. 

Currently, Laura Caloway holds a slight lead in win percentage over ‘the gambler,’ Josh Boeke, although Laura missed a week somewhere along the way.  Scott Kacsmar and I are tied for the lead in total wins but trail slightly in win percentage in part because we’ve picked more games than the two percentage leaders.   

We always enjoy seeing your picks as well (yes, I’m talking to you, and yes, we'll give you the Thursday night game).  So, whether you just want something to do, or you are dying to show us all up with your own game prediction ability (as a couple readers did, in convincing fashion, earlier in the year), go ahead, and take a few minutes to share you NFL picks with us.  You can do so in the comments, by an email to This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it. , or by liking and commenting on our fantastic Facebook page. 

I'll have a list of the games you can copy and paste to save time if you prefer.  So, on to the charts we go after the jump.