Bill Belichick is not a nice man.

People in the media don't like him.

Neither do I.

Some of us can stow the loathing for 5 minutes.  Others can't.

After his call the other night, the MSM swarmed Belichick like sharks in a tank full of chum, eagerly extracting their pound of flesh as payback for all the times he's dissed them.  Believe me, I'm not sad Bsquared is getting pummled, I just wish it would have been for any of the many good reasons and not the one thing he did Sunday that made sense.

Apparently, I'm not alone.  Our dear friends over at Cold Hard Football Facts have noticed that bloggers seem to be at odds with the vast majority of the mainstream press.   They cite 18to88 favorites like:  18to88.com (yeah, we are our own favorite.  Deal with it.  Just consider following that embedded link as some kind of existential ironic commentary), Stampede Blue, and fellow Bloguin site Foxboro Blog.

CHFF comments: The irony here is that 18to88 is a blog run by hopeless Colts-loving homers (and also CHFF contributors). But at least they're up front about their biases ... and they still offer more rational, two-sided analysis than the "objective" mainstream media, who provide lead stories with witticisms such as "fourth-and-jackass." Somewhere, Mark Twain's sense of humor cringed in its grave.

The Monday Morning Hangover has been posted, and yours truly encapsulated the Colts/Pats game (and the Jets/Jags and Dolphins/Bucs).  I included the stat I posted last night which has already served to comfort me greatly as I think about last night's game.  Demond likened this to the Colts loss at Foxborough to start the 2004 season.  Indy outplayed the Pats that night, but fumbled the game away, eventually losing when Mike Vanderjagt yanked another key field goal.

The Colts didn't fear the Pats heading into the rematch in the playoffs, but in the end, the homefield advantage gained by the Pats in the first game proved too much for Indy to overcome.

File that away for future reference.

Bill Belichick did a lot of dumb things on Sunday night.

Not punting wasn't one of them.

Let me begin by saying that Belichick screwed up the end game royally.  Facing a 3rd and 2, and a team with 1 timeout left, Belichick had an easy call:  RUN THE FOOTBALL.

Indy has the 26th ranked 'Power' defense in the league. They only stop runs on third and fourth and two about 27% of the time.  Conversely, NE is 5th in power running, converting 76% of all power runs.  Running the ball on third down would have (at least) forced the Colts to burn their last timeout.  Assuming Indy made the stop (which is a HUGE assumption), perhaps punting to them would be more palatable knowing they would be out of timeouts.  Even had they been stopped on third down however, the odds of Indy stopping them on consecutive runs would be impossibly low. Add in the wasted timeouts, and it was a very un-Patriotlike final drive.  The Pats screwed it up, just not how everyone thinks.

Let's tackle the popular reasons that people are citing for attacking Belichick's decision:

1.  "You have to play the odds"-Tony Dungy.

He did play the odds.  The odds favor going for it. Speaking strictly in mathematical terms, in a vacuum Belichick made the right call.  PERIOD.  Going for it was the high percentage play.  Now, football isn't played in a vacuum, of course so add in these factors:

Hey, we're all still up anyway, right?  I'd might as well make the best of it:

Reasons to Smile:

• Robert Mathis.  How great was he all night?  How great is he all the time?  He's a hero of this team.  He has been for awhile now. 
  
• Jerraud Powers.  We knew he was good, but tonight was a revelation.  At the end of the game the Pats ran the same pattern they ran at the end of the 2007 game when Brady hit Welker to convert the last third down.  Legend has it that Welker jumped up and yelled in MJax's face "You F****** suck!".  This time when the pass came his way, Powers broke on the ball and batted it down.  He not a rookie any more.
• Reggie Wayne.  Incredible performance by a big time player.  That game winning TD catch was beautiful.
• Austin Collie redeeming himself.  It was a rough first half for Collie, but Indy doesn't win that game without his contributions at the end.  The big PI call he got really helped.  For the record, it was CLEARLY pass interference.  The defender hipchecked him before the ball arrived.  That was an easy, not at all controversial call.  It was bad defense.
  
• Joe Addai.  4.1 YPC, 2 TDs, and big runs when it counted.  Hate on him all you want.  He has 9 total TDs (and one throwing).  He knows where the goal line is.
• Melvin Bullitt made a great hit on the final play on Faulk.  I thought it was a good call, by the way.  Faulk clearly juggled it, and I can't see how you can determine where he was when corralled it.  The Pats screwed up by not having any timeouts, but I don't think that gets overturned.
• Over the final two and a half quarters, the Indy D held Brady to a rating of 76.6, forced 2 turnovers, allowed only 10 points (7 came on a 7 yard drive), and forced the Pats off the field on four plays to 'win' the game.

Reasons to Frown:

• New England was the better team tonight.  They made some dumb, dumb mistakes (stupid timeouts, awful pick, fumble on the goal line), but so did Indy.
• From 6:17 in the first to 7:28 in the second, Indy allowed Brady to throw for 226 yards and 2 scores and a rating of 156.3.  To me, this screams of a coaching problem.  I don't know if guys were out of position, or if it was someone's grand design to just cover Randy Moss one on one with a safety, but let's never do that again.  The pass D really wasn't bad all night...just in that one stretch, but when it was bad, it was awful bad.
• Garcon. I know he managed to catch a perfect ball on his finger tips for a score.  Whoop-de-doo.  He's killing this team.  His drop was inexcusable.  He and Collie took at least 6 points off the board between their two drops.
• Don Brown.  Did he get hurt?  He was pedestrian running the ball (4 carries, 14 yards), and picked up a stupid penalty, and after that he disappeared.  We were all hoping for more. 
  
• Charlie Johnson gave up another sack, and didn't run block well early.
• The two picks by Manning.  Wow.  I know one was a route mix up, but the floater toward Garcon was awful.  I praise #18 all the time, so it's only right that I kill him when he screws up.
• I didn't think the team seemed ready to play. I don't trot that out much, because you can't prove it, but I saw too many stupid penalties on the younger players, too many blown assignments on defense.   I put that on the head coach.  Caldwell flunked his "Big Game" preparedness test in my book.
• Freeney was invisible.  It's been a long time since I said that.
• Melvin Bullitt's play during the 'stretch of death' I referenced earlier was awful.  It looked to me like he was lost.
• Tim Jennings.  Randy Moss.  We knew how that would turn out, but did he really have to just fall down on the touchdown?  Really?

Best Call:

I'll cheat here and say Belichick deferring to the second half.  Caldwell had no tough decisions that I can remember (for good or bad).  I hate it when Indy starts with the ball.  It put the Pats in a good position all night.  They didn't cash in, but I liked what it did to the flow of the game in their favor.

UPDATE:  Ok, I've slept a few hours and I forgot the one tough call Caldwell made.  He decided to kick off to the Pats rather than onside.  Great call by him.  Ironically, if he had decided to onside, and the Pats had recovered, it likely would have unfolded exactly the same way, only Indy would have gotten the ball around the 30.  Which is where they would have gotten if Belichick had decided to punt.

Worst Call:

BB getting suckered into challenging the Wayne catch.  Peyton clowned him there.

Reasons I'm Flying:

• If (if, if IIIIIIIFFFF) Hayden and Gonzo come back, most of what went wrong tonight goes away.
• 13.5 to 2.5.  Only that tool Bradshaw still counts rings.  Hmmm, maybe that's because he still thinks he's one of the 10 best of all time.  He's very much not.
• We ran the ball effectively.  Our YPC was much better than NE (5.1 to 4.0).  I know it felt like the Pats ran the ball well, but other than a couple of big runs by Faulk, they didn't.
  
• Indy now has a two game lead over Cincy and three over everyone else.  Worst case scenario now has us playing the AFC Championship game in Cincinnati.  The Bengals are a good team, but there would be a LOT of blue there. 
  
• Peyton Manning owns Bill Belichick.  He owns him.  He is so far into BBs head, that he's going to have pay rent.  Belichick coached this game like Death itself was quarterbacking the other team.  Manning had thrown two bad picks, and BB was STILL terrified of him.  NE fans can shut it forever.  Manning is as clutch as they come.  Belichick confirmed it.  Manning put up 35 points on his defense playing from behind the whole time.
  
• "Manning is like an industrial size vat of White Out, making the Colts looks cleaner than they actually are."  So, so true. (tip to Stan)
• The Pats are as good as any team out there.  If we can beat them with this mish mash unit, we can beat anyone.
• We just beat the Pats in one of the greatest games ever.  OF COURE I'M FLYING!

Reasons I'm Dying:

• I expected more from the defense. I know they played better over the final 2 1/2 quarters, but I'm stunned the Pats put up 34 points on them.  The Ravens and Texans (both on the road) are just as good of passing teams as the Pats.  It needs to get solved and fast.
• New England was the better team and that bothers me.  They have Randy Moss.  That makes them dangerous.
• I worry that Gonzo and Hayden won't ever come back.  Indy might be faced with Jennings and Garcon from here on out.
• I'm worried about CJ.  He's giving up sacks like candy these days.  Something bad is going to happen soon.
• San Di-freaking-ego is going to win the West.  I freaking hate those guys.
• It's almost 5 am.  I'm toast.

The Bottom Line:

This is a good team.  It needs to get better.  The good news is that because they won this insane game, they have time to fix what is wrong.  That starts with a competent outsider receiver.  That would fix a lot of problems.  As for the defense, I'm not convinced much was wrong.  The two bombs to Moss were weird plays, and I can only assume it was a scheme problem, not a talent one.  Given the opponent and the performance late, I'll give the D a pass.  It has two more good pass offenses coming, so if there is something broken, we'll know soon enough. This team has flaws, for sure.  They are not fatal ones...yet.

I was asked in the comments where this ranks on the Best Games list.  For now, I think it fits in at #3 right behind the Tampa game and the AFC Championship game.  If the Colts end up winning the Super Bowl (who else is going to?), I think it could well vault higher.  This win was a sweet as they come.

I said so at the time, and I stand by it.  Tip to Shake who found the number crunching to back it up.

Statistically, the better decision would be to go for it, and by a good amount. However, these numbers are baselines for the league as a
whole. You'd have to expect the Colts had a better than a 30% chance of scoring from their 34, and an accordingly higher chance to
score from the Pats' 28. But any adjustment in their likelihood of scoring from either field positionincreases the advantage of going for it. You can play with the numbers any way you like, but it's pretty hard to come up with a realistic combination of numbers that make punting the better option. At best, you could make it a wash.

PRE-GAME:

Great afternoon of football.  Suddenly, none of the teams the Pats have played this year look very good.  The Falcons, Jets, and Broncos all lost.  The Jags won, giving the Colts a third quality win.

That was the single most meaningless paragraph I've every typed.

The Steelers also went down leaving the Bengals firmly in control of the AFC North with a one game lead and tiebreakers over the Steelers and Ravens.

FIRST QUARTER:

• The Pats win the toss and defer because they are smart.  The Colts open with the TE offense we haven't seen in some time.  The Colts run, and dump off twice and punt.  Great move by the Pats to kick first.  Nice punt by McAfee.
• Brady misfires completely on third and short.  He had Watson 'openish' on a tight angle, but couldn't find him.  Punt. Rushing fair catches inside the 10.
• Indy's second drive starts out well with a big play to Clark for 25 yards, getting the Colts out of the shadow of the endzone.  Later, Manning utterly dupes Belichick into a stupid challenge by trying to quick snap after a great sideline grab by Wayne.  On third and 11 down tight, Manning hits Addai on a sweet screen.  The J'Addai Master takes it home for the touchdown.  7-0 Indy.  90 yard drive.
• The Pats start at the 27.  Three runs make for a first down.  A blown coverage on the next play leads to a huge gain to Moss.  It's still unclear who if anyone was supposed to be covering him.  Two plays later the Pats bang it in for a touch down.  Frustrating because you don't know who to hang it on.  Someone wasn't lined up correctly.  Generally speaking, it's a good idea to have someone defend Randy Moss.
• Charlie Johnson gives up a QB hit on third down.  Manning had Brown breaking open, but CJ couldn't protect.  Manning is hit as he throws and the ball sails wide.  Short punt means good field position for the Pats.
• Faulk starts the drive with a big run as Powers wipes out the safety for a broken tackle.  The Pats then convert a HUGE third and nine, as Brady faces NO PRESSURE AT ALL.  Moss finds the hole in the zone for the first down.  The first quarter ends with the Pats facing a massive third and four.  Defensively, Indy hasn't come within shouting distance of Brady.  That's the story of the game right now.  7-7 after 1.
  

SECOND QUARTER:

• The Pats convert another first down, and after two plays, they faced third and goal from the 4.  Indy fakes the blitz, and Mathis knifes through for a HUGE sack, forcing the Pats to take the field goal.  First time today Indy put any pressure on Brady.  10-7 Pats.
• Another huge kickoff by the Pats starts Indy out at the 20.  Indy goes three and out as Brown has no room to run and the corner beats Garcon to the ball forcing an incomplete pass on third and 3.  The only brightside is a nice punt.  Barf.
• Touchdown bomb to Moss.  Bethea can't make the play.  Moss is the greatest player in football when he wants to be.  Again, I'm not sure why there's no corner playing Moss.  Awful strategy.  17-7 Pats.  Someone needs to rethink something.  It would be one thing if Moss was beating our young corners.  Instead, no one is covering him at all.  Larry Coyer needs to rethink whatever it is he thought he was doing when he designed this game plan.  This is 100% a coaching problem.
• Collie starts off the drive with another OPI call.  The drive ends with a rusher coming unblocked up the middle on third down for a sack.  As I am want to say, "This game is going the wrong way".  The Pats start on the wrong side of the 40.  Indy looks horribly outcoached at this point.  The defense needs a stop and soon, or I'll have to start chanting "FRAUD!  FRAUD! FRAUD!".  The crappy O line play, I expected.  The bizarre "let's single cover Randy Moss with a safety"...that I didn't see coming.
• The Indy defense is utterly lost.  It's big pass play after big pass play.  Melvin Bullitt is out of position on virtually every play.  This is perhaps the worst job of game planning by a DC I have ever witnessed.  Brady just avoids a sack and throws a TD.  Incredible play by him.  24-7.  Side note:  every time they spotlight Powers on Moss, he's doing a good job.  Why on earth then were there two separate plays where no corner lined up on him?
• The offense responds (finally) by moving the ball.  Wayne shows up large and Indy puts up 7, as if just to remind the Pats they aren't going away.  If you had told me we'd score 14 points in the first half, I'd have been thrilled.  The O essentially fine, but the defense looks lost.  24-14, Pats.
• Finally, a great stand by the D.  Three incomplete passes, including some incredible coverage on third down.  Brady faces heat from Mathis and throws it away.  Indy gets the ball at the 25 with a chance to get back in the game.  The problem is that if they don't score here, they'll face a two on none with the possessions for the Pats.
• The drive starts at the 25 with Frenchy dropping a huge gainer.  The drive never recovers thanks in part to a false start by...Garcon.  Three and out.  The Pats will probably be up 24 points before Indy ever gets the ball back.
• Massive stand by the D as Mathis causes havoc.  Indy blitzes on third down, and Mathis actually made a stop downfield.  He's having a huge game.  Indy has 1:36 and a timeout.  3 points here are essential.  It feels like the storm might be weathered if you can go to the half down just one score.
• Indy slides upfield, but the drive stalls as Brown picks up a penalty and Collie drops a perfect pass.  The rookies have not been ready for prime time tonight.

HALFTME:

Well, that sucked.  As bad as it was, it felt like Indy had the chance to get back in the game as the defense stiffened late, but there have been just too many mistakes.  This is why I said last week that Caldwell had to pass the "Big Game" test.  Indy hasn't looked very well prepared tonight.  Maybe that's unfair, but the young guys (with the very notable exception of Powers) have looked overmatched.  Brown, Garcon, and Collie all picked up penalties.  Garcon and Collie had killer drops that would have put the Colts in position to get points.  The Colts have to make some serious adjustments on defense in the second half.  It's not over yet, but it still feels like a game that could get out of hand.  I hope everyone who hates Addai and thinks the Colts don't need Gonzo and Bob Sanders watched this half of football.

THIRD QUARTER:

• The key drive of the game starts at the 27 for the Pats.  The Colts do a better job getting pressure on Brady, but the run game gashes the Colts.  Finally, Bethea makes the play of the night as Brady throws an awful pick in the endzone.  Bethea made the pick, but Jennings had the angle anyway.  Huge play and the Colts stay alive.
• Wayne keeps the Colts ensuing drive alive with a sick-ass catch on third down, but Manning returns the favor by throwing a horrible pass that is picked.  The ball comes out of Manning's hand flat, and it never has a chance.  Bizarre.
• The Pats pick up an easy third and short early in the drive, and from there it was a case of "Hot Knife, meet Butter".  The Colts act as though they've never seen a run game before, and the Pats move down the field with ease.  They faced another third and short around the Colt 14, converting it with little trouble.  But once again, the Colts D comes up large, forcing a fumble at the goal line.  Brackett recovers.  Wow.
• At this point, there's no use blaming the defense anymore.   The offense has had its chances to cut the lead under 10, but simply hasn't responded.  Manning faces tough third and 5s and 6s on every play.  Again the drive putters out as Addai can't make a tough sliding catch.  Welker returns the punt inside the 10.  Feels like game over.  This team simply isn't good enough right now.   There are just too many bad players are too many key positions.

FOURTH QUARTER:

• Touchdown Moss.  Tim Jennings falls down. 31-14.  Randy Moss is the story of this game.  167 yards 2 TDs.
• Nice drive to answer the Pats.  Indy scores quickly as Frenchy makes a play.  The Colts finally did what they needed to do about five drives ago.  They passed to Clark, ran the ball effectively, and Manning hit Garcon for a 29 yard score.  The game is back to a 10 point game.  This has been a frustrating, uphill kind of night.  The D has to make a play...and now.
• The D got them to a key third down, and on it Brady throws to Moss covered by Tim Jennings.  Welcome to my nightmare.  Jump on in the water is warm.  In my version of hell, every WR is Randy Moss and I'm a DC forced to cover him with a fistful of Jennings.  Mathis comes through large with another strip sack, but the ball bounces the Pats way.  On third and 10 he hits Brady again, and the ball flutters free.  Robert Mathis has been everywhere tonight. Once again, Indy has the chance to make it a one score game.
• Another duck pick.  Wow.  Awful.  Wayne runs one way, Manning throws the other.  Someone effed up.  The throw looked bad anyway, so I'm sticking it on Manning.
• The Pats waste a bunch of time and pick up a field goal.  The Colts still have time for a cosmetic TD, but even if this winds up a 6 point game, it wasn't as close as the score.  This isn't a case of injuries killing this team.  They've played most of the year without Hayden and Gonzo.  This IS the team that won 8 games.  THIS is the team that has to improve.
• We have a Collie sighting.  The rookie makes a couple of catches and picks up a key interference penalty as the Colts zip downfield and Addai punches it in.  Though it is utterly insane, Indy cuts the lead to 6 points with 2:23 to play.  They have three timeouts and the two minute warning left.  I'd onside kick.  You've given up 34 points. There isn't much chance of getting a stop.
• Caldwell opts for the long boot, and it goes out the back of the endzone.  I know the chances of getting an onside kick are less than 10%, but still.  I feel like the odds of stopping this drive w/o a first down are that low too.
• First down:  Stop.  Timeout.  Second down:  pass to Welker.  Time out.  It comes down to third and two.  That's not a good down/distance for Indy.
• Third down:  BLITZ!  POWERS!  PUNT!  HOLY CRAP!
• NE lining up to go for it.  Awesome coaching.  HOOOO!  JUGGLE!  Ball at the line!  COLTS BALL!  OOOOOOOOH!  INDY BALL AT THE 29!
• OOOOOOOOOOOObighouihiouiouhui!

Colts win.

Holy crap.

There are two huge games in the NFL this week, and not much else matters.  The Colts host one of the games.  The other is for supremacy in the AFC North.  Let's take a look at Week Ten while I prepare myself emotionally for tonight. 

Easy calls

Denver at Washington:  The Broncos are looking to avoid a three game losing streak.  Think Denver can't lose to the hapless Redskins?  I think they can. 

Jacksonville at New York (A):  This games seems like a joke, right?  Not really.  Let's say the Jets win this afternoon, and the Colts win tonight.  That sets up a huge game next week in New England.  The Jets would be one game back with the tiebreaker in hand. 

Philadelphia at San Diego:  The Chargers won't win the AFC West with a .500 record again.  They need this game badly.  Denver has a couple L's left on it schedule, but they likely won't be worse than an 10 win team.  Losing this game would put San Diego in a must win position at Denver next week.  I'll be rooting against the Chargers -- hard.

Tough calls

Cincinnati at Pittsburgh:  Rooting for Cincy seems obvious to most of us.  The only problem is their schedule gets pretty easy for the next three weeks (@Oak, CLE, DET) before getting tricky to close out (@Min, @SD, KC, @NYJ).  Pittsburgh has a weak closing schedule with the exception of playing a questionable Baltimore team twice.  The bottom line is I think the winner of this game will have a good chance of finishing 13-3.  So it comes down to which stadium I'd rather visit in the playoffs -- and that is not a tough call.

AFC Playoff Standings

Indianapolis (8-0)

Denver (6-2)

New England (6-2)

Cincinnati (6-2)

Pittsburgh (6-2)

San Diego (5-3)

Houston (5-4)

I usually worry when I wake up with an email from JC in my inbox.

I never know what semi-coherent drunken rant is awaiting me.

I'm never tempted to ignore those emails, for one simple reason.  Sometimes, they have great ideas.

So was it this week when he suggested we open the floor to 18to88.com readers to share their favorite memories of the Colts/Pats series. The result was a good read and a lot of fun.  So click here to see everyone's favorite moments were from the rivalry that renews tonight.

It struck me as I read what everyone wrote how many people share in the big moments even when they are far from Indianapolis.  Indy is home to me in a way that no other place I live ever could be.  At any given moment in my life, that's where I'd rather be.  Every week, the Colts bring me home for a few hours, and they've come to mean more to me now than they even did when I went to every game.  Judging by the responses, a lot of people feel the same way.

The article will be permanently stored in the Fixtures sidebar.  Feel free to keep sending in your favorite memories, and I'll add them to the list.

I sure hope someone has something good and new to send me tomorrow.

I got this email in my inbox today:

Rob in Cincinnati writes:

I'm a Bengals fan from Cincinnati, who also roots for the Colts and despises the Patriots. Anyway, I'm bringing a huge Colts fan to the game against the Patriots game this Sunday, and I've been trying to look up things to do before the game. I've been searching to find a few ideas.

I don't think we are going to do the whole tailgating thing but were looking for a restaurant/sports bar we could watch some football in before heading to the game. Is there anything within walking distance of the stadium, anyplace you'd recommend?

I'm not sure if this is the right place to send an email asking for tips but I can't find much more info anywhere else.
Thanks

GO COLTS

We'll forgive the whole "Bengals fan" thing, because there isn't much of a rivalry there (except for week 4 of every preseason).  Besides, as everyone knows, I'm generally down with the 'Nati.  As long as Rob and company are wearing blue on Sunday night, that's all that matters.

I gave Rob some ideas, but seeing as how I haven't exactly 'been in town' in the past year, I figured it would be a good idea to open the floor to suggestions.  The great part about downtown Indy is that there is lots to do. If you have a good hangout spot or idea in Downtown, leave a comment.  Rob will be checking them.

Support your local economy, people, and help a brother out.