It's nearing crunch time.  The Colts find themselves in an enviable position, to say the least.  It is very difficult to decide who to root for until you've decided how you would like the final AFC standings to look.  DZ and I talked it over this morning and this is what we came up with...

1.  Indianapolis

2.  San Diego

3.  New England

4.  Cincinnati

5.  Denver

6.  Pittsburgh

This seeding order would mean a couple things:  First, it would ensure that the Colts would not have to play both San Diego and New England en route to the Super Bowl.  A good thing, right?  Second, it would ensure a very difficult route for both New England and Pittsburgh.  The Pats would have to beat the Steelers at home, the Chargers on the road, and then likely the Colts on the road.  Indy, on the other hand, would likely play the winner of Denver and Cincinnati in the divisional round and then either New England or San Diego in the AFC championship.  With that in mind, let's take a look at the important NFL games of week twelve.

Easy Calls

Cleveland at Cincinnati:  The Bengals are still a threat for the one seed.  They need to lose one more time.

Jacksonville at San Francisco:  Someone needs to put the Sparklecats out of their misery.  That team has no business making in the playoffs, and would only serve as fodder for whoever hosts them.

Arizona at Tennessee:  Same story here.  I don't see any benefit in rooting for the Titans to stay hot.  Although it might force management to keep VY.  Hmm... 

New England at New Orleans:  The Pats in the three seed would be ideal.  Losing this game would go a long way towards this happening.

Tough Calls

Kansas City at San Diego:  The Chargers are still alive for the one seed.  I hope they lose, but they can't lose too many more games if the above scenario is to play out. 

Pittsburgh at Baltimore:  The Steelers aren't really an essential part of our "plan", so I'll root against them.  I dislike them. 

Current AFC Playoff Standings

1.  Indianapolis (10-0)

2.  Cincinnati (7-3)

3.  San Diego (7-3)

4.  New England (7-3)

5.  Denver (7-4)

6.  Jacksonville (6-4)

7.  Pittsburgh (6-4)

8.  Baltimore (5-5)

9.  Houston (5-5)

10.  Miami (5-5)

I'm taking a brief pause from football to recognize the candidacy of Barry Larkin for the Hall of Fame.  Larkin is third on my list of all-time favorite athletes (behind 18 and 31).  I had planned a lengthy defense of Larkin, but there have already been several excellent ones written by others.  Rather than duplicate their work, let me point you towards the following excellent and comprehensive pieces:

Associated Content gives a six page examination of Larkin's merits.

How does Larkin compare to the players above (HoF SSs)? His hitting rate stats of .295/.371/.444 place him on the cusp between the Offensive Elite and the Offensive 2nd Tier. His 198 career home runs would place him near 2nd among Hall of Fame Shortstops; behind only Ernie Banks (Cal Ripken holds the record for SS, with 345 and should be elected to the hall in 2007). Add in his 379 stolen bases and 3 gold glove awards, and Larkin begins to look more and more favorable compared to many Shortstops already in the Hall of Fame.

Hard Ball Times compares Larkin's prime to Jeter's

Just for fun, take a look at the similarities between Larkin's career through 1996 and a mystery shortstop's current numbers:

               G   2B  3B   HR   BB   SB  CS  RCAP   WS
Larkin      1328  254  48  135  545  275  51  341   241
Mystery SS   366  283  42  150  559  201  52  328   219

Now, in the interest of full disclosure I've done a little cherry-picking of stats to make the comparison work. Those numbers take Larkin through his age-32 season, while our mystery shortstop was just 30 years old last year. Still, they are pretty damn close through 1,300 games or so. And Larkin put up those numbers in a far less friendly environment for offense than our masked man has played his entire career in. If you account for that and adjust Larkin's rate stats accordingly, here is how the two shortstops compare through ~1,300 games:

               G   AVG   OBP   SLG   OPS  IsoD  IsoP
Larkin      1328  .305  .379  .487  .866  .074  .182
Mystery SS  1366  .315  .385  .463  .848  .070  .148

By now you've probably figured out that our mystery man is none other than Captain Dreamboat himself, Derek Jeter. While I've been known to pick on Mr. Clutch at times, the one thing the man can clearly do is hit. So I mean it as nothing less than a huge compliment when I say that when it comes to hitting, Barry Larkin was Derek Jeter before Derek Jeter. Add in years of good defense and a career that produced 147 RCAP, 105 Win Shares, four All-Star appearances, and three legitimately outstanding seasons after 1996, and Larkin should be a no-brainer for the Hall of Fame.

Larkin holds up wonderfully compared with other HoF SSs using WAR

The final thing to take away from that figure is where Larkin fits with respect to the HoF zone.  The top of that zone is the average Hall of Famer's career line on a WAR graph like the one above.  The bottom of that zone is roughly the 20th percentile of HoF'ers, sometimes referred to as the "replacement hall of fame" line.  Larkin is comfortably within--and sometimes over--the top of that zone every year of his career.  This confirms what the Appling & Smith comparisons tell us--he had comparable careers to those guys, who are fairly average Hall of Fame players (i.e. they were superb players).

Joe Posanski says, "You had to see him to apriciate him

As a player, well, Larkin was an amazing player to watch every day. Yes, I cringe when I hear that "you have to see him every day to appreciate him" cliche... but it really was amazing how many times we would be watching from the box and Larkin made a play that left you shaking your head in admiration. I suppose it felt that way because he was such a well-rounded player -- Bill James in the New Historical Abstract called Larkin one of the 10 most complete players in baseball history (italics his). He could do so many different things that could impress you.

• Larkin stole 379 bases -- and at remarkable 83 percent success rate.

• Larkin never struck out 70 times in a season, and walked 112 more times in his career than he struck out.

• Larkin hit double-digit home runs nine times, and as many as 33 in a season.

• Larkin finished in the top 10 in batting average four times, runs scored five times, walks three times, stolen bases five times, on-base percentage three times, slugging twice. He won three Gold Gloves. He won the MVP, the Lou Gehrig and the Roberto Clemente Awards. He made 12 All-Star Teams. He hit .353 in his one World Series appearance. And he played with a certain style -- he was just a graceful player. He made great defensive plays without diving, and stole bases with a seeming effortlessness.

This is nice page with links to two excellent PDFs on Larkin's merits

The sentiment out there seems to be that it might take Larkin awhile to get in, because people have forgotten how good he is.  There simply are no credible arguments for excluding him (unless someone wants to ignore position eligibility altogether and compare SS with OF and 1B). Ultimately, he was a player who helped change the position of short stop from strictly a defensive one to one where offense could be expected.  Larkin will eventually get voted in because his candidacy is too strong to ignore.  His case is much stronger than say...Jim Rice's.

Larkin will be in the Hall of Fame.  It's just a question of when.

I've never been to Cooperstown, NY.  But I'll move heaven and earth to be there the day Barry Larkin gets in.

Phil B. greets us this morning with a story about the #1 defense in the NFL.  The discussion yesterday got me wondering if the 2009 defense might be the best in Colts' history. It's important to gain some sense of context as we talk about these teams.  Understanding past Colts squads can help us avoid overstatements and prevent us from falling into the trap of "whatever is happening RIGHT NOW is the greatest, best, worst...".  I've gone through the all the Colts' teams since the move to find the five most worthy candidates.  My primary criteria was league ranking in points allowed, but no matter how you slice it, these five are really the only contenders.  The only other options would be the fraudulent 2002 team that gave up 41 points in the playoffs (they get on this list over my dead body) and the 2006 team, but only the playoff version.  That is obviously not a valid comparison.

Here are the 5 best Colts defenses in chronological order:

1987 Colts (15 Games):

1995 Colts

2005 Colts

2007 Colts

2009 Colts (10 games)

Observations:

• Note I'm not using yards to rank the defenses.  Yards are utterly irrelevant.  Defense is about points and turnovers.
• The 1987 Colts forced an insane 44 turnovers in 15 games.  They were aided greatly by a 7 turnover game against Buffalo and a 5 turnover game against the Jets during the first two 'scab' games.  The '87 team had a good D, but the numbers aren't all that useful thanks to the bogus games.
• The '95 Colts had a solid D, but it was a cut below the rest.  Still, they were very strong in the playoffs, and I'm glad to have them represented.
• The 2007 Colts managed to weather injuries throughout the year, but folded in the playoffs due to a lack of pass rush with Freeney being out. 
  
• The 2009 Colts might not have as many dominant games (under 10 points) as the 2005 team, but it seems likely that they'll allow fewer 20 point games than any Colts' team since the franchise came to Indy.

The Verdict:

I'm going with the 2007 "Pre-Freeney Injury" Colts.  I know that's cheating because you have to take the whole season, but they forced a few more turnovers than the 2005 and 2009 Colts.

It's interesting to see how closely the 2005 and 2009 Colts mirror each other.  The 2009 team has been a bit more steady (3.9% variance to 6.6% for 2005 for the DVOA math nerds who care).  Both teams forced the same number of turnovers, and the PPG difference is negligible.  If we want to get down to 'yards' as a measure (just to differentiate a little more), the 2005 Colts were 11th over all (307 ypg), and the 2009 Colts are 15th (326 ypg).  Both teams had a 'shoot out' style game (2005 Colts won a wild one down in Cincinnati).

Truthfully, however, there is no reason the 2009 Colts can't become the best defense in Indianapolis history.  They certainly merit inclusion in the discussion at this point, and need only a couple of more games at a high level to lay a serious claim to the title.  If they go out and shut teams down in the playoffs, it'll be a moot point.

Everyone will remember 2009 as the Year of The Defense in Indianapolis.

UPDATE:

35er wrote to ask about some drive efficiency stats (like points per drive).  Fortunately, we have the footballoutsiders wealth of data to help us. Note that "Drive Success Rate" is: the percentage of down series that result in a first down or touchdown. For a defense, the lower the number, the better.

2009:

2007:

2005:

The data doesn't help much.  All three measured teams (data not available before 1998) are right about in the same spot.  Indy always plays a "bend, don't break" defense which will lead to low rankings in yards/drive.  The 2009 team may just give up more yards due to longer kickoffs (the 2009 team has the best starting LoS of the three).  The one area that shows is that the 2007 team forced a turnover better than once every 5 drives.

I love Peyton Manning.

(readers stop.  too shocked by what they've just read to continue.  they pause, rereading each of the four words again, slowly, in disbelief)

I think he's playing great this year.

(confusion and wonder spread through Colts nation.  what bold and grandiose statement will DZ make next?)

Some people have said that Manning is better than ever.

I disagree.

(now I have your attention).

In fact, not only has Manning not 'never played better', the argument can very safely be made that he's played exactly the same before.

Flash back to 2005:

The Colts are rolling at 10-0.  Coming off two MVP awards, Peyton's numbers read like this after 10 weeks:

Now check out his 2009 numbers:

The Colts are rolling at 10-0.  Manning is coming of an MVP award.

Manning is playing outstanding football, but it's hard to argue that he's playing better than he did in 2005. I'm leaving 2004 off the table because it was a different kind of animal all together.  Most of us who have seen every season by Manning rank 2004 below some of his other seasons because of the renewed enforcement of illegal contact that year coupled with a spate of games against the then woeful NFC North.  2005 was one of Manning's sneaky great seasons.  He was considered a lock for MVP as the Colts won their first 13 games.  Indy suffered a tough loss against the Chargers in week 14, and then Manning played sparingly in the final two games as the team tried to rest players while simultaneously dealing with the tragedy suffered by the Dungy family.  Combined with a massive final push from Shaun Alexander, the Seattle running back took the MVP award from Manning.

So which season is the better one through 10 games?

In favor of 2005 is a higher passer rating, and the significant factor of Manning adjusting to an entirely new style of defense against him.  After 2004, teams decided that no matter what, they weren't going to let Manning throw deep.  The routinely played their safeties extremely deep so as prevent the long ball.  Manning instantly adjusted and became Captain Check-down.  Clark, Wayne and Stokely all saw massive drops in their YPR and Manning's YPA was cut by more than a yard.  Manning did a brilliant job solving the problems posed, and had the Colts rolling in dominating fashion until unfortunate circumstances derailed the season.

Of course 2009 isn't bad either.  2005 Manning was throwing to Harrison, Wayne, Stokely, and a young Clark.  2009 Manning has Wayne, Clark, Garcon and Collie.  Obviously, putting up the same numbers with lesser receivers is impressive.  The 2009 Manning doesn't have the same level of run support either.  He's had to throw the ball far more often, and has posted much bigger yardage totals. He's also played incredible late in games, bringing the Colts' back 5 times in 10 games.  The 2005 Colts didn't need any comebacks as they spent much of the first part of the season crushing people.  Manning also has been startlingly accurate this season and is threatening the all time single season completion % mark.

Even the advanced stats don't help us settle the question.  2009 Manning has posted a DVOA of 40.6%.  While I don't have 10 game DVOA of Manning from 2005, his final total for 2005 was 40.5%. Eerie.

So, 2005 or 2009?  Right now, it's splitting hairs.  Ultimately, we'll remember and judge the season based more on what happens after the season ends than what happens in the next six weeks.  One thing is for sure:  saying, "He's never been better!" probably isn't true.  It's more accurate to say, "He's been exactly the same!"

All this just serves to remind us how great this guy's career has been.  For almost any other QB in football, Manning's 2009 season would be a career year.  For Peyton, it's old hat.

How close have the Colts' games been recently?  John Oehser has the answer:

Also according to Elias, the Colts are the first team in NFL history to win four consecutive games after trailing in the fourth quarter.

As I noted in today's Hangover (and there it is.  See how I easily I dropped that in there?) Peyton Manning is flying up the all time list for comeback drives:

The Colts played sloppy football, but prevailed behind Peyton Manning’s fourth consecutive come-from-behind, fourth-quarter drive to win a game. Manning has comeback drives in five of 10 Indy wins this year to go with five more last year.  In fact, of Indy’s last 22 wins, Manning has led a game-winning drive in the fourth quarter in 11 of them.

Manning now has 33 come from behind fourth-quarter wins, and stands behind only a pantheon of football Gods –

Elway, Marino, and Unitas – on the all-time list.

Max Rebo: great music, better cake. 

note:  comments on this post are now working

Oddly enough, this isn't a post about 'things that irritated me' but merely an explanation that I'm on vacation right now.  I'll still be working hard to give you all a quality post each day, but the links probably won't come as fast and furious as normal.  If you find something good you want everyone to read, please post in the comments instead of emailing it to me.  I'm using a funky mobile broadband card, and my service is spotty, so be patient.  I did manage to watch the game on a funky slingbox connection that went in and out at times.  If there were specific things I missed (like apparently an egregious hold of Mathis), I'm sorry. 

Reasons to Smile:

• Joe Addai's running.  Nice burst, great running on the TD play.  Oh yeah, great blitz pick ups too. 
• Gary Brackett's pick.  That was as fine a read and clutch a play as you'll ever see a middle linebacker make.  Defensive plays don't come any bigger than that.
• The goal-line stand.  Anyone still think we miss Ed Johnson?  Great plays by more guys than I can count
• The defense in general.  That Ravens team has a good offense, and Indy played a classic game for their scheme.  They kept everything in front of them (except the one deep ball which Lacey had incredible coverage on).  They forced the Ravens to go on long drives and not make any mistakes.  Eventually, they did.  Even the missed field goal becomes a factor of the law of averages.  Make a kicker take 6 FG tries, and chances are decent one of them will miss.
• Dallas Clark's TD catch.
• Tom Santi's play.  I know he fumbled, but he got CRUSHED on the play.  Sometimes the other guy makes a big play.  Do I wish Santi had hung on to the ball?  Sure, but there's a difference between your guy fumbling because he's doing something dumb and a fumble that comes from getting blasted.  Santi was a big factor all day, and that's a good sign for a team that needs to find new options on offense.
• FRENCHY!  Huge game.  This is where he's different than '08 Harrison: he's on the way up.  This was a game that showed he's going to be good someday.
• Reggie Wayne's effort on the key third down. 
• Zero sacks, good time for Manning.

Reasons to Frown:

• No sacks, very little pressure.  If there is a reason that the Ravens got inside the 30 seven different times, this would be it.  It didn't seem to matter if the Colts blitzed or not, there was not getting to Flacco.
• Manning's second pick.  Ignore Dierdorf's nonsense about Manning's eyes and the pump fake.  He had moved Reed right where he wanted him.  Wayne was wide open, and if Peyton leads him left toward the front pylon it's a touchdown.  Instead the bail sailed on him and drifted back to the right.  For a QB, this is the equivalent of Garcon running that sloppy route a few weeks ago.  This was a 'physical' pick, not a mental one.  He had the right read, but made a terrible throw.  This worries me because that's two 'physical' picks in the last two weeks for Peyton.  I think it's wise for them to rest his arm.
• The play call on first down after the Flacco pick.  Addai ends up going out of bounds.  I'd blame Joe, but you could clearly see him dancing to try and stay in play, but the play call was designed too wide.  It wasn't a well thought out call, in my opinion.
• Instant replay.  Let me be clear: both calls probably accurately reflected what really happened on the field. Neither fumble should have been overturned.  I say that because the evidence is supposed to be indisputable.  On both plays, the only angles I saw showed the runner with a knee down and large parts of the ball exposed (when freeze framed).  I realize that after this point, you see Lacey rip the ball completely free, but I don't see how it's indisputable that the runner still had full control at that point.  Replay is supposed to fix OBVIOUS mistakes.  Unless the official saw angles I didn't, I don't see how either call was obvious.  Poorly done.
• Clark's effort on the first interception. He wasn't very open.  Manning shouldn't have thrown the ball.  Still, Clark leans back away from the contact, allowing the defender to get inside of him and bat the ball up in the air.  Clark needs to attack the ball there and at worst it's incomplete.  That pick was 70% on the QB, but the receiver could have done more to prevent the turnover.

Best Call:

You already know what I'm going to say.  GOING FOR IT ON FOURTH AND ONE!  That made my heart happy.  Addai made an incredible run for the yardage, but Saturday's smart hold brought it back.  I say it was a smart hold because he knew he was beat and by grabbing the guy, he kept the drive alive and allowed Indy to punt. 

Worst Call:

I'm cheating here.  Other than griping about the play calling inside the 10 on the last drive (which was probably Manning's call anyway), Caldwell coached a clean game.  Harbaugh did not.  Calling a time out and then challenging the spot was awful.  First, the spot was bad...but in Baltimore's favor.  Secondly, he should have just thrown the flag immediately.  A head coach has to go into that situation prepared to use his challenge as a time out.  It's like he never considered that very obvious strategy before.  Instead of his team getting the ball back with nearly a minute to play, there were just seconds left.  Bad job by him.

Reasons I'm Flying:

• This defense is for real.  Other than a short stretch in the NE game, it has been playing at an elite level for weeks now.  The corner play was for the most part strong.  They completed some passes on Lacey, but even so he had tight coverage most of the time.  The Ravens stymied the Colts' pass rush, and still couldn't get touchdowns.  When a D stops a good run O on the goal line...that's when you know it can handle all phases of the game.
• The toughest part of the schedule is nearly over, and the Horse won't do any worse than 3-1.  Don't worry about how the team is "playing".  You don't beat average and good NFL teams when you aren't playing your best.  Unless you are the Colts.  The Patriots are clearly the #2 team in the AFC, and right there with the Vikes and Saints.  Indy beat them.  They can play with anyone right now.  And...they can still get better.
• The run game is becoming dependable.  I actually want them to run the ball now. That's a good sign.
• The resilience of Pierre Garcon.  He had a rough game last week, but hasn't folded.  Just the opposite, he made a big catch at the end of the game against the Pats and loomed large in this one.  That's the mark of a guy who's going to stick and blossom.

Reasons I'm Dying:

• Just one really:  the bad throw by Manning.  I worry that his arm isn't quite right or that he's getting fatigued.  That's a ball that he should hit every time and to see it get away from him...I don't know, it worried me.

The Bottom Line:

4-2 secures a #1 overall seed. 3-3 probably gets it done.  The Colts are in the middle of the toughest stretch of games they'll have until January and have acquitted themselves well.  My confidence in this team grows each week.  It feels like the vets are playing with a little extra something.  Doesn't it seem like Reggie Wayne is 100% locked in and ready to do anything to win a title?  There are lots of old nemesis still out there waiting for Indy, but with any luck the Pats and Chargers will finish 2-3.  I don't care in what order they finish, just so long as we don't have to play both of them.

Colts 17  -  Ravens 15

We tried to give it to you, but you just didn't want it....

Should be a great game today when the Colts visit Baltimore.  Your meaningless stat of the morning:  The Indy defense is allowing fewer than 16 points per game, but  in the past four games it has allowed 6, 14, 17, and 34.  That's a trend we should keep an eye on.  The Ravens have allowed just over 17 points per game this season.  Through 6 games they were allowing nearly 22 points per game.  Baltimore's average has dipped dramatically in the past three weeks, allowing just 7, 17, and 0 points in the month of November. 

First Quarter

1.)  Colts will get the ball first.  Chad Simpson gets a horrible return to start the game, kick took a high bounce which slowed him down.  Manning starts at the 13 yard line.  Play-action, but Manning can't hit Garcon deep thanks to double coverage.  Stretch play with Addai.  Nothing.  Crowd is very loud.  Huge conversion to Wayne after the Ravens blitz Lewis.  Addai loses one on first down.  Pump fake to Garcon.  Manning hits him deep inside the ten!  Finally!  Addai for a couple inside the five.  A ONE HANDER FOR DALLAS!!!  Manning put it a little long, but Clark makes the grab TO PASS JOHN MACKEY.  Colts lead 7-0.

2.)  Ravens fumble the Kickoff.  Under review.  Reversed and ruled down by contact.  Homer call, not surprising though.  Ravens run twice with short gains on each.  Flacco abuses Tim Jennings on third down.  Duh.  Seen that over and over for two years.  That's where Hayden and Jackson's injuries hurt so bad.  Short pass to the back.  Draw to Rice sets up 3rd and one.  McClain easily picks up the first.  Flacco to Mason for ten.  McGahee for four.  Timeout Ravens.  No pressure on Flacco, hits McGahee short, breaks a bad tackle to the 34.  Lacey breaks up a deep out on first down.  Nice one.  Draw for 6.  Big third down:  Flacco goes deep, but can't hit his man deep thanks for VERY HANDSY COVERAGE BY JENNINGS.  Cundiff just sneaks his kick in.  Colts lead 7-3. 

3.)  Colts O starts at the 24.  Tipped and picked.  Bad decision.  Manning is fearless perhaps to a fault right now.  Returned to the Indy 29.

4.)  Rice for 3 yards.  Flacco for the endzone, nearly picked by Bullitt.  3rd and long:  they pick on Jennings again.  ANOTHER GREAT PLAY TO TIP IT AWAY by 23.  Field goal.  Colts lead 7-6.

5.)  4:01 to play in the first quarter.  Couple obvious blocks in the back on the kickoff return.  Colts start at the 11 yard line.  Great blocking by the line and Addai gets 6.  Interior running works best for Indy right now.  Santi is back on the roster and picks up the first!  Back to Santi again down the seam!!  31 yard gain past midfield.  Addai for three yards.  Manning under pressure from the blitz, tosses it away.  3rd and long:  Ravens rush four and Addai is just short on a catch.  4th and 1:  Timeout.  Colts run and Addai picks it up.  Holding penalty on Indy.  The run would have been stuffed without the hold by Saturday.  Punt to the ten.

6.)  McGahee for two. 

Second Quarter

1.)  This game looks like the grinder most of us predicted.  Another draw!  Johnson snuffs it out for a short gain.  3rd and four:  False Start.  3rd and 9.  Huge play here.  Dump off to Rice for very little.  Tackled by Jennings.  Punt.  Another return penalty.

2.)  Colts will start at their own 32 yard line.  Short pass to Garcon.  Brown is stuffed.  3rd and 5:  Manning has time and hits Collie with a wobbler for 12!  Brown to the sideline for 6 yards.  Nice.  Santi for four.  Crowd is into it.  3rd and short:  2nd Timeout.  Very uncharacteristic.  Manning appears to be having a hard time getting everyone on the same page.  Probably due to the noise and Santi being "new."  Brown picks it up.  Solid.  Manning rolls out right and eventually tosses it away.  Manning goes deep and it is picked off by Ed Reed who has Wayne doubled.  Horrible decision, easy pick.  On replay it looks off-target, a good throw is a deep completion to the sideline.  Returns it near midfield.  Manning is struggling. 

3.)  Dump off to the back for 5 yards.  Rice for 5 and the first.  Gouging for another 5 yards.  Rice for 14 yards.  Draw for no gain on first down.  5:54 to play.  Rice for three, down to the Indy 20.  Huge third down and 7.  Screen is read by Session and company.  Interesting blitz.  Field goal.  Ravens lead 9-7.  Big stand by the Indy defense.

4.)  Chad "Touchback" Simpson returns the kickoff to the twenty.  Colts need to use a little clock and get some type of points.  Even 3 would be big.  The stretch to Addai for 21!!  You read that correctly.  Santi down the seam -- takes a shot and HANGS ON!  Gain of 22 inside Ravens territory.  Addai outide for 5 yards.  THIS LOOKS LIKE THE COLTS.  2nd and five:  Draw is stuffed.  Nice idea, though.  Inside three minutes to play and running.  Big third down and 5.  Just enough time to find 87 on the sidelines.  Just gets the feet in.  Veteran effort.  Ravens almost challenge, but decide against it.  Addai for five yards on first down.  2:00 warning.  Very pleased with the running game.  Perhaps the Ravens are back to the death by 1000 paper cuts defensive strategy that has gotten them beat so many times before.  Manning needs to be much more patient, and he'll prevail.  TOUCHDOWN JOE ADDAI.  Colts lead 14-9. 

5.)  Ravens get a field goal before the half.  Colts nearly get the sack to keep them off the board.  Colts lead 14-12. 

Halftime                 

Manning's mistakes have been the difference between the close game and a comfortable margin at the half.  It's too bad because beyond the two picks the Colts played a solid half on both sides of the ball.  The good news:  the Ravens are kicking field goals instead of scoring touchdowns.       

The Colts have been able to create decent pressure with Coyer's combination of rushing four and creative blitzing.  Rice had a nice half running the ball, but so did Addai.  Flacco hasn't done much at all, but unlike #18 he's protecting the football.   

Third Quarter

1.)  Touchback.  Rice for one yard.  Draw to Rice, breaks a couple tackles.  3rd and 2:  Flacco can't make a play to Clayton, defended by Brackett.  Punt.  Fair catch.

2.)  Colts start at their own 33 yard line.  Addai right for 3 yards.  Colts are blocking thus far.  Crazy.  Lewis blitzs.  Santi catches it near midfield.  Addai around the left end for a couple.  Wayne over the middle for a big gain and a first down inside the Ravens 30.  Addai for seven!  Garcon on a quick slant for another first down to the twelve.  CHARLIE JOHNSON MISSES THE BLOCK.  Could have been six for Brown.  Santi fumbles at the goal line, Ravens ball.  Third turnover for the Indy offense, and certainly the most critical. 

3.)  Ravens start at their own 9.  Big play for Baltimore.  Ravens drive down to the ten yard line, but get stuffed on a critical third and short.  Pretty rare short-yardage stop for the Indy D.  HE JACKS THE POINT BLANK KICK.  

4.)  Computer issues:  Colts three and out.  Punt

5.)  Ravens driving near midfield.  Lacey breaks up a deep ball.  Actually it was a flat drop.  Poor coverage.  First down, the pressure is not getting there.  But it is close.  Rice for a short gain.  Designed QB keeper fails, Jennings makes the play.  Big third down coming.

Fourth Quarter

1.)  Colts hang on to the lead despite losing the turnover battle three - nil.  Mammoth play here on 3rd and long:  Offsides on the Colts.  UNREAL.  Big penalty because they had forced fourth down.  Flacco picks it up on a short toss.  Stuffed on first down.  WHERE'S THE HOLD??  HOLYCRAP.  They held Mathis.  The Indy's offense has wasted a pretty decent outing by the defense.  Great stand on THREE SHOTS FROM JUST OUTSIDE THE GOAL.  Ravens lead 15 - 14.     

2.)  Nice return by Simpson.  Colts start with good field position.  Colts drive inside the ten and kick a field goal.  Will that be enough?  Colts lead 17-15.  

3.)  There will be no complaining from Indy if they lose this game.  Pretty clear storyline.   Great return by Baltimore. 

Summary:  Okay, I'm back.  It's too hard for me to do play by play updates in crunch time.  I'm too busy throwing pillows and kicking the wall.  Did you know:  If you slam a pillow against the wall with enough force it sounds like a gunshot?  What a finish, though.  Baltimore drives deep into the redzone before throwing the game away to Mr. Gary Brackett.  Did you see the look on Flacco's face.  Agony.  Dude looks like Dario Franchitti to me.  

The Colts offense gets the first down they needed thanks to some running by Joe Addai.  Ray Lewis put a sick hit on Pierre Garcon (6 catches for 108), but the second year player held on.  Then the clutch conversion to Wayne off the play action roll out.  Great play call that almost didn't work because Reggie slipped.  Killer false start on Santi on the next play.  That left Indy with little choice about what plays to call.  Run, run, run.  Punt.  Ed Reed did the rest.  What a game by Indy's defense.  I told DZ on the Colts last drive that I thought a field goal could win it.  Surprisingly, I was right.  Also:  is there any question about who should be the starting running back in Indianapolis?  More later.