A couple of weeks ago, I handicapped the MVP race.  Let's see how that's worked out.

1.  Peyton Manning

What he had to do:  Go 16-0 and/or break the completion percentage record

What he has done in the last three games:  3-0, 61%, 96.0 rating, 9 TDs 4 INT, had a huge game on national TV in which he threw a long game winning TD pass

What he has left to do: He needs to play a good game this week.  The Jets have possibly the best pass defense in the NFL, so it could be tough to post numbers.  As long as Manning plays reasonably well and the Colts get the win, the MVP has to be his.  If Indy goes 16-0, the award is Manning's independent of what anyone else does.

2.  Drew Brees

What he had to do: Finish 16-0

What he has done in the last three games:  2-1, 70.9%, 101.4 rating, 6 TDs, 2 INT, had a mediocre game on national TV in which he couldn't lead the game tying drive at the end.

What he has left to do:  Hope Manning loses, post huge numbers.  He's not out of it, just because he's popular and "Manning Fatigue" is a real issue with voters.  15-1 and taking the yardage title from Manning could do it.  Now that the Saints need just a win to clinch home field throughout, it will be interesting to see how much he plays in the final week of the season.

3.  Phil Rivers

What he had to do:  Wasn't on the list, because he had no real shot to win (still doesn't)

What he has done in the last three games: 3-0, 66.3%, 107.3 rating, 6 TDs, 3 INT, big game winning drives in high profile games against Dallas and Cincinnati.

What he has left do:  Throw for 1000 yards and 10 TDs in his final two games.  Rivers is this high on the list because he's the guy everyone loves to say, "Why isn't Phil Rivers on MVP lists?" even though he is on every MVP list.  His candidacy is rock solid statistically  and philosophically.  He has carried the Chargers.  Working against him is that there are two other QBs with identical numbers, better records, whose teams are just as dependent on them, and Brees and Manning aren't giant douches.

4.  Brett Favre

What he had to do:  Keep his rating over 105, TD/INT ratio of 2:1, go 4-1

What he has done:  1-2, 62.7%, 76.1 rating, 3 TDs, 4 INT

What he has to do:  Bribe people.  Last night's game with Carolina sealed the deal.  His coach tried to bench him.  Um, you can't be an MVP if your coach tries to bench you.  A mediocre team took the run away from the Vikings and dared them to beat them with Favre.  He could not do it.  Three weeks ago he was the odds on favorite, but I can't see him getting more than a vote or two now.  He's fading fast, and the Vikings might wind up in the #3 slot.  The Favre experiment might yet end badly in Minnesota.

5.  Chris Johnson

What he had to do:  Titans needed to win 10 games, he needed to hit 2000 yards rushing

What he has done:  2-1, 334 yards, 4.0 YPC, 11 catches 152 yards, 3 total TDs

What he has to do:  500 yards, 2 wins, make the playoffs, hope Manning loses a game.  500 yards over his final two games would give Johnson the all time single season rushing record.  It would be insane production and if it also coincided with the Titans making the playoffs, it would be impossible to argue against him.  He is that team.

Since 2004, the Fantastic Four have dominated the AFC.

The Patriots, Steelers, Colts and Chargers have won 19 of a possible 24 division titles (assuming the Pats win this year).  They represent 8 of the last 10 AFC Conference finalists.  They have won 4 of the past 5 Super Bowls between them.

They are a combined 276-99 (.736) and none of the four teams has posted a losing record in that stretch.  They have posted seasons of 16-0, 14-0 (in progress), and 15-1.  The four teams have been quarterbacked by Brady, Manning, Roethlisberger, Brees and Rivers, inarguably the five best quarterbacks in football over that same stretch.

They possess the key to winning the Super Bowl...

Avoiding one another.

These four represent such a gauntlet that it has become virtually impossible to navigate through the AFC to the Super Bowl unless you can avoid playing two of these four teams.

In 2004, the Patriots managed to beat Indianapolis and Pittsburgh on their way to the title.  That's the first and last time anyone has beaten two of the Fantastic Four.  All others who have tried, failed.

In 2005, the Steelers won the Super Bowl managing to beat Indianapolis in the process.  They were saved from having to play at New England when the Broncos knocked them off.  Instead of facing Brady in Foxborough, they got Jake Plummer.  They won the AFC.

In 2006, the Colts won the Super Bowl dumping New England along the way.  They caught a break as the Pats and Chargers played in the second round, ensuring that they only had to play one of the Fantastic Four.  The Pats had to play two of them, and lost.

In 2007, the Patriots were aided as the Steelers dropped a first round game to the Jags.  They then beat San Diego on their way to a perfect very nice season.  The Chargers beat the Colts, but then lost to New England.  Beating two of the four was too much to ask.

In 2008, the Steelers beat the Chargers in the divisional round, and took home the Super Bowl title.  San Diego beat Indy, but couldn't beat the second link in the chain.

Once again in 2009, the Chargers, Colts, and Patriots top the AFC, with Pittsburgh lurking at 7-7 trying to sneak in.  It's entirely possible that the key to making the Super Bowl will have as much to do with the way the seeding works out as it does the play on the field.  Whenever you face multiple elite teams with elite quarterbacks, it becomes more difficult to win all the games.  The pattern of the AFC in recent years shows that the team with the easiest path through the Four is the team that will advance.

This is why we are rooting for the Patriots to finish in the third slot behind the Chargers.  First, it would set up a brutal path for New England, especially if Pittsburgh does manage to sneak in the 6th spot.  They could have to play the Steelers, Chargers, and Colts consecutively. Even if Pittsburgh doesn't make it, it still forces the Pats and Chargers to play in the second round in San Diego.  Either team would be a tough foe to face in Indianapolis for a spot in the Super Bowl, and I have no particular fear of either team.

I just don't want to play both of them.  It's fine to wax poetic about "wanting to play the best" and "beating teams that beat us".  The odds are strong that should the Colts advance to the AFC Championship game they'll get either the Pats or the Chargers.  In another couple of years no one will care if the Colts played both of them along the way; they'll only remember the result of the matchup.  It comes down to simple math, and I want the easiest path possible.

As things stand now, the Pats would take the #3 seed if they win out, based on "Strength of Victory" over the Bengals.  Both teams would finish with identical records, conference records, and records verses common opponents.  The only way rooting for the Pats to finish third would backfire is if Pittsburgh qualifies at 6th and goes into New England and win. That would set up Indy/Pittsburgh in the second round with the Chargers taking the leftovers.  I'd rather avoid the karmic drama of #1 Colts verses #6 Steelers if you don't mind.

Let's take a quick look at the Colts rooting interests this weekend...

First, our ideal order of finish:

1. Colts (locked)

2.  San Diego-Let's be realistic.  It would be great if the Chargers finish 3rd, but I doubt it's going to happen.  Ultimately, I'd rather put NE and SD against each other in round two ahead of any other scenario.

3.  New England-This forces the Pats and Chargers to play each other before Indy.  I'm still convinced NE is the third best team in the conference.

4.Cincinnati-They have to play somewhere.  Indy would almost assuredly play the winner of the Cincy Denver game.

5. Denver-I'm confident the Colts will handle Marshall better with a full compliment of corners

6.  New York Jets-The worst of the wild card teams, they lost to the Jags at home.  Indy is 4-0 against Baltimore, Miami and Jacksonville, so none of those teams are scarey.  None will win at New England anyway.

Pats @ Bills

I want the Pats to play San Diego, so I'm pulling for them to win.  If NE loses, then I'll root for the Bengals today.  Who am I kidding?  I want Brady to toss 6 picks.

Falcons @ Jets

Meh.

Miami @ Titans

Who do you want to see less in January?

Raiders @ Broncos

I wouldn't mind seeing Denver totally fall apart.

Texans @ Rams

Probably doesn't matter, but I'd rather not see Houston again after two close games.

Bears @ Ravens

No fear of Baltimore, but still.

Bengals @ Chargers

If the Pats lose, then this switches to being a pro-Bengals pick.  I don't think they will, so I'll go with SD for now.

Green Bay @ Pittsburgh

Let's just cut the head off of that monster once and for all.  Forgive me for never wanting to see Pittsburgh in the playoffs again.

Well, hey, hey. Haven't we just hit the big time now?

If you'll casually glance to the left, you'll see that you can now download a FREE 18to88.com IPhone app. The app is a great way to keep tabs on 18to88.com via your mobile device.  Personally, I have an IPod Touch that is become a physical part of my hand I use it so much.  So for me, having our own app is basically a dream come true.  As of now, the app doesn't allow for commenting on stories, but hopefully by next year.  If you don't use Apple products and need an Android app, just search any app store for 18to88, and you'll be hooked up. Remember to please comment on the app in the stores!

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You may also have noticed the other link on the left side that allows you to donate to 18to88.com.  We put this up at the suggestion of several readers.  Please understand, we aren't begging for patronage.  We run this site free of charge, and that's how it will stay.  However, we do put a lot of time in and incur real costs in the process. If you've enjoyed our work and want to chip in, that's awesome.  We'll probably put the money toward airfare to some unnamed city in Florida during some month after January and before March...or something.  Anyway, no pressure there.  Some of you asked for it, so we put it up.

It's a great time to be a Colts fan.  I hope 18to88 has made the season a little bit brighter, or at least a little nerdier.

After a couple of incredible days away with my wife, I'm back and ready to recap last night's thriller.  I have an inbox full of mail and suggested links, so I'll try and spend the next couple of hours catching everything up.  To start, let's look back at the high drama that was last night.

Reasons to Smile:

• There's nothing wrong with Peyton.  So much for the "he's nursing an injury" theory.  Granted, most of his throws were short last night, but when it came time to cut one lose, he dropped a beautiful ball into Reggie Wayne for one of the sickest game winners I've ever seen.  #18 was incredible last night, stone cold doing it all and making as loud and definitive an MVP case as you'll ever see.  There was never a question the Colts were going to score points last night.  Throughout the game, it was always only a question of whether or not the D would get the stops.  Watching Manning moving his backs around to pick up blitzes is one of life's rare pleasures.
  
• Reggie Wayne keeps his mouth shut and makes huge plays in fourth quarter after fourth quarter.  No D can ever be satisfied with the work done on him until after the game is over, because just when you think he's quiet, he makes a few plays down the stretch to seal it.  He doesn't let frustration show.  He just grinds away.  Always a brilliant Colt, he's made himself beloved this season.
• Dallas Clark makes mistakes from time to time, but no one makes up for them more often.  His bobbled almost cost the Colts the game, but he game back with an inspired effort to give them back the lead.
• Eric Foster's effort was tremendous.  His second sack was a huge play.  The Colts didn't get much pressure on Garrard all night, but what they did came from Foster.
• The D had a rough night, but they still managed to play credible against the run.  MJD had a big game with 110 yards, but barely topped 4 yards a carry.  In fact, until his final draw for 10 yards, the Colts had held him to 100 yards on 26 carries.  I'll take that against him any day.  His center of gravity is so low, it's nearly impossible to stop him for a loss.  The Colts did a great job hitting him at or near the line, but he just burrowed down for an extra yard or two.  I can live with that performance.
• Nice work by the O line.  Granted, the Jags are a HORRIBLE pass rushing team, and Manning still had to move around in the pocket, but he didn't get sacked and had time to check to his third or fourth read on several plays.
• Collie blocking downfield.
• No points allowed in the fourth quarter.  I know Mathis and Freeney didn't make any huge plays, but did you notice how much better the D looked once they started playing every down late in the game?
• Chad Simpson.  That's five touchbacks worth, buddy! Incredible blocking on that play.  No one laid a hand on him.
• The look of desire and frustration on Freeney's face.  He wanted to be playing.
• Jennings almost sealing the game with a spectacular pick.

Reasons to Frown

• Did you see that pass rush with 98 and 93 on the bench?  That was the 2007 San Diego game all over again.  Coyer dialed up every conceivable blitz, but nothing landed in time.  Freeney is the second most important player on the Colts.  When he's not there, it shows.  You could see it on run downs where Dawson couldn't get off his block to chase down MJD wide.  Freeney changes everything.
• Catch that ball Hayden.  Almost cost us the game.
• That was a well officiated game, but the spot on Garrard's fourth down sneak looked awful to me.  I don't see how they gave it to him.
• Kickoffs and punts were a mess.  As Demond mentioned, it seemed like the turf was chewed up.  I'll give McAfee a mulligan.
• What was Jennings doing on that TD pass he allowed?  Awful job.
• Foster's false start.  The O picked up the 11 yards it needed.  Too bad Foster made them need 15.

Best Call:

Letting Mathis and Freeney loose in the fourth quarter.  All of a sudden, there was a rush with four.  Garrard didn't go down but once, but he felt it and started to spray the ball all over the field.  Those two change everything.

Worst Call:

Third and 9 from the Jag's 48 with just under 8 to play, Manning throws toward the sticks to Clark.  HATE the play call.  Instead of playing four down football and trying to pick up 5 or 6, they went for the first.  The Colts had no choice but to punt on fourth down, but I would like to have seen them in 'four down' mode from the start.  It worked out in the end, but I didn't like the tought process.

Reasons I'm Flying:

• This was a repeat of last year's game with two exceptions:  1.  The Jags are better.  2.  The game didn't matter to the Colts.  That's a sign of improvement when you up the other guy's motivation, decrease yours, sit your two best defenders for long stretches and still produce the same result.
• MVP #4.  Brees still has his chance to make his statement, but this is officially a two man race.  Someone with New Orleans ties is winning this award.
• 14-0.  Just...wow. 
  
• As great a game as that was last night, it was arguably not in the top three Colts' games this year.  The New England game is first.  I think the Dolphins game was at least that good, and the Houston comeback was incredible.  At some point, you just have to throw up your hands and be joyful to watch the most exciting team in football.
• 10 days off.  As hard as the call was to play people against the Jags, the extra time should make it an easy call for the Jets game.  The rest is built in.  I'm not calling for an all out blitz for 16-0, but I've always thought they needed to play hard through the 15th game.  I'm sure they will.  This team is hungry.

Reasons I'm Dying:

• I've seen life without the pass rushers, and I don't like it. 
  
• That's it.  Nothing else.  Freeney and Mathis play every down last night, and the D would have looked 1000% better.  The offense is on fire.  I'm not worried about anything.  Injuries are my only fear.

The Bottom Line:

San Francisco would be 7-6, battling for a playoff spot.

Houston would be 7-6 tied for the last playoff spot.

New England would be 9-4, very much alive for a bye.

Baltimore would be 8-5, a game up on every other wild card contender

Houston could be 8-5, controlling their own destiny.

Tennessee would be 7-6, tied for the last playoff spot and riding a seven game win streak.

Denver would be 9-4, battling for the division crown, even a bye.

Jacksonville would be 8-6, and in control for the last playoff spot and a chance to save NFL football in North Florida.

Each of those teams needed to beat the Colts more than the Colts needed to beat them.  Every single one lost.  We've forgotten some of them were even contenders once, mostly because Indianapolis declared that they weren't.  Indy has played a gauntlet of 8 games against desperate teams.  Six times teams with everything on the line had the Colts on the mat in the fourth quarter.

They all lost.  In the fourth quarter of those 8 games, the Colts out scored their opponents by a total of 79-39.  That's basically the equivalent of two 40-20 wins scored against a collection desperate playoff caliber teams.

14-0.

Wow.

Welcome to week 15 of the NFL season.  The Indianapolis Colts are looking to start the 2009 season with 14 consecutive victories.  That would set the franchise record.

• Freeney and Mathis are active and in the starting lineup. PK is reading my mind about playing Freeney and Mathis primarily on third down.
• We don't usually discuss odds, but I found it interesting that the Colts are giving 3 points.  They line opened at -6 which means the general public bet heavily on the Jags.
• FYI:  My win streak beard is getting huge.  If the Colts go 19-0 I'll be a dude with a HUGE beard and a new tattoo.  Sweet.
• Anyone else notice how Jason Whitlock just mysteriously stopped writing his NFL Truths column for FoxSports.com?  I guess you know a column is in trouble when its readers check back weekly to see how wrong it will be...
• Not sure why I am nervous about a meaningless game.  That right there tells me it must mean something.

First Quarter

1.)  MJD is deep to receive.  The Jags will start at the 27.  Jones for 5 yards.  Bullitt, Hayden, Lacey are all out there.  Brock stuffs Mojo for no gain on second down.  GET THEM OFF THE FIELD!!  Freeney is in.  Offsides.  Stupid penalty.  Declined as the Jags had the yardage anyway on the quick toss to Sims-Walker.  First down.  Garrard to MJD for one.  Hayden comes from the outside to tackle Mojo for a gain of four.  BIG THIRD DOWN.  Another conversion to Sims-Walker.  Lacey had the coverage.  MJD for 7.  Jennings for 1.  Keyunta Dawson injured on the play.  Return is probable.  Hmmm.  Yet another third down:  Sims-Walker again.  Long drive by the Jags.  Garrard to Miller for 6.  MJD for 3.  ANOTHER THIRD DOWN CONVERSION?  Nope.  Strip sack for FOSTER.  Scobee hits from 50 after the Colts fail to recover the fumble.  Jaguars lead 3 - 0.

2.)  Simpson takes a knee in the endzone after mishandling the kickoff.  Addai in the backfield.  Stretch right for a couple.  CJ is in.  Diem as well.  Manning to Addai for 4.  Third down and 4 yards to gain:  Garcon for three yards.  BUT THEY GIVE HIM FORWARD PROGRESS.  Addai is stuffed on the quick snap to avoid a challenge.  Loss of 3.  Clark for 5.  Third down and 8 yards to gain:  Manning buys time and hits Garcon for 11 and the first.  Collie around end for 2 rushing yards.  Addai for 4.  Third down and 4 yards to gain:  Manning holds and holds and Clark comes free across the middle for 20.  Addai on the pitch right for 6.  Clark for 11 and a first down.  First and Ten from the Jags' eleven.  Addai for 1.  Hole closed quickly.

Second Quarter

1.)  Pressure and Manning hits Addai for 4.  Third down and four yards to gain:  TOUCHDOWN.  Manning SQUEEZES one in to Clark.  Great throw.  Great catch.  He put it the only place where it wouldn't be a pick.  Ball bounced around on Clark's chest like he was Aaron Bailey laying on the ground in Pittsburgh.  Colts lead 7 - 3.

2.)  Squib kick.  Poorly done by McAfee.  Jags will start at the 39.  Offsides on Brock.  1st and 5.  MJD for 2.  Incomplete for Holt.  Hayden with tight coverage.  THIRD DOWN:  Blitz is picked up.  Garrard to Thomas.  First down.  Garrard seemed to be setting up a screen -- forced to roll out and throw.  Broken up by Session.  MJD for 14.  Poor angle by Bullitt.  Jennings for 5.  MJD for 6 and a first.  Jags at the Colts 21.  Can't have those poor kickoffs.  MJD for 8.  Garrard to Sims-Walker for 5.  First and goal from the 8.  MJD loses 1, Hayden on the play.  Touchdown.  Garrard scrambles and finds Drew who has beaten Session.  Tough to defend a guy that long.  Again, I go back to the poor kickoff.  Jaguars lead 10-7.

3.)  NO WAY.  #35 HOUSES IT.  WOW.  WOW.  WOW.   YES -- THAT JUST HAPPENED.  CHAD SIMPSON.  (Sweet camera angle btw).  Colts lead 14 - 10.

4.)  As the announcers alluded to:  Tonight's T.O.P. smacks of the Dolphins game in week two.  We'll take it, though.  Also, the high scoring game we've been predicting is coming true.  Jags will start at the 29.  Play action fake and Garrard hits MJD for 5.  The pressure doesn't land and Garrard hits Lewis for 24.  Jennings for 5.  This doesn't look like the Indy defense, thus far.  Freeney and Mathis have a lot to do with that.  They aren't playing.  Jennings for 3.  Third and 2:  MJD for 9.  Hayden drops a pick in the endzone.  Hit him in the hands.  MJD for 10.  Bullitt takes another questionable angle.  Jennings for 9.  GASHING THEM NOW.  MJD picks up the first.  Touchdown.  Really no excuses for that drive.  (Except that whole playing a Thursday night game after an extremely physical game on Sunday thing.  Remind anyone of last year's game in Jacksonville?) Jaguars lead 17 - 14.

5.)  Three timeouts.  2:52 on the clock.  Colts start at the 32.  Squib kicks suck.  Addai for 15.  WAYNE NEARLY SPLITS THE SEAM!!  Picks up 22 yards on the crossing route -- down to the Jags 31.  Bubble screen to Wayne for 8.  Addai for 5 into the red zone.  Collie loses 5.  Under one minute to play.  Using a ton of clock (which is smart).  TOUCHDOWN.  Manning steps up and hit Austin Collie down the seam on the skinny post.  Double clutched it.  35 seconds to play. Colts lead 21 - 17.

6.)  Poor coverage.  Field looks iffy.  Jags start at the 41 with :27 to play and three timeouts.  Freeney and Mathis force Garrard out of bounds for 5.  19 seconds.  Garrard to Lewis for 10.  Timeout with 12 seconds to play in the half.  Garrard to Jennings for 5.  39 yard line.  7 seconds.  YOU KNOW THIS IS MONEY.  Nope.  Not a chance on the 56 yard attempt.  Frankly I'm shocked he missed it.  Bethea can't make anything out of the return.

Halftime

This has been the type of game most of us were expecting.  The Colts defense has look tired.  Not blaming them, obviously.  I agree with Polian that Thursday night games are border-line criminal by the NFL which claims to care about its players.  The 53 man roster MUST BE EXPANDED.  Scary to think of what the Indy D would look like if they had rested players.  Although, in fairness, #98 and #93 have played sparingly.  Marshall Faulk is correctly pointing out that MJD and #18 are going off.  No surprise.  Good to see Reggie getting active there at the end of the half.

Third Quarter

1.)  There's Chad Simpson!  Colts start at their own 18.  Not sure the field is in the best condition.  Lots of poor kicking.  Addai for 1.  Addai for 2.  Don't see two runs in a row much.  That's why.  Tamme for 8!!  Holy crap -- what a throw!  Addai far right for 3 yards.  Hmm... the run blocking is streaky at best.  Picked off.  Terrible effort by Clark.  Dude.  Horrible.  Horrible.  That could be the game.  Seriously.  Seems like A BOATLOAD of tipped ball picks by Manning this year.  Someone care to go back and count them all?

2.)  Jags start at the Indy 40.  MJD for 3.  Wilford drops it on second down.  BIG THIRD DOWN.  MJD for 6.  BIG FOURTH DOWN.  Converted by Garrard.  MJD for no gain.  Garrard hits Lewis for 14.  MJD loses one to the Indy 16 yard line.  Foster with pressure and Garrard puts it over everything incomplete.  Will the Colts streak of not allowing a TD after a turnover end?  Yes.  There will be some angry and embarrassed defenders on the flight home. Jaguars lead 24 - 21.

3.)  Dallas Clark's critical error has swung the game in Jacksonville's favor.  Disappointing to say the least.  Colts start at the 20.  Hart for 3 on the pitch left.  Footing may be an issue?  Manning tipped incomplete.  Insane throw to Wayne.  Just wow.  Dude makes a grown man cry.  Another stab by Reggie!  NBA Jam voice:  He's heating up!  Addai for 5 on first down.  Collie for 7 and the conversion.  Inside the 30.  TOUCDOWN!  Clark atones by staying on his feet down the seam.  Manning is re-living last year's performance (which I thought was his finest ever perhaps).  Colts lead 28 - 24.

4.)  Kick coverage has been poor tonight.  They look like the '02 to '08 coverage units.  Jaguars start at the Indy 46.  MJD for 2.  Garrard to Holt for 7.  Two plays to pick up 1 yard.  MJD gets it.  No signs of stopping Jacksonville tonight.  Blitz by Session, Bullit and Bracket.  Nope -- gain of 17 to Holt, into the red zone.  MJD for no gain.  MJD takes it inside the 10 from Garrard.  Last team with the ball wins?  Probably.  False start.  1st and goal from the 13.  Brock nearly gets to Garrard.  Incomplete.  Didn't buy the run fake.  At all.  LACEY NEARLY.  BIG THIRD DOWN COMING:  Touchdown.  Can't land the blitz (yet again).  Jaguars lead 31 - 28.

5.)  Rushing takes it out to the 22.  Addai for 2.  Hits Robinson for 5 yards.

Fourth Quarter

1.)  DZ asks:  remember when this was every Colts game?  Big third down and 3 yards to gain.  Incomplete.  Punt.  Holding.  I'm arguing with my wife for no reason which means it is a good time to give the game blog a rest.  Be back later.  Maybe.  (If I don't come back:  this one is on Dallas Clark and the D).

Summary: Reggie and Manning decide the game with a terrific play.  Lacey does his part with an athletic-looking pick to seal it.  DZ notes that the Colts shut the Jags out in the 4Q.  Really a pretty gutty performance by a host of guys.  Tim Jennings nearly made the play of his career on a key stop.  Couldn't have been easy.  He also notes the TERRIBLE false start by Foster on the final Indy possession.  That's an unforgivable penalty if this is the playoffs.  DZ points out that the Colts picked up 11 yards on that sequence, but needed 15 because of the flag.

Umm... Manning is the MVP.  No doubt in my mind.  Only the gaffe by #44 marred his stellar performance.  Nothing like setting the NFL record for most come from behind wins in the 4Q in a season.

The Colts are 13-0 and will not play a meaningful game for a month.  We know the Colts will get a shot at perfection.  We know the Colts will host a home game on either January 16th or 17th.  We know Indy will be rested and close to full strength when the playoffs come around.  There are, however, a few things we don't know yet.

1.)  What's up with Adam Vinatieri? He started the first five games of the season, going 6 for 8.  AV has missed the past 8 games with a knee injury.  His replacement, Matt Stover has gone 9 for 11 with a long of 43.  Bill Polian has given AV the ultimate sign of (well earned) respect by keeping him on the active roster in hopes that he will be able to kick in the playoffs.

• My guess: I believe AV may have played his last game as a Colt.  On the bright side:  Matt Stover will turn 42 during the upcoming playoffs.  Because of his limited power I expect the Colts to eschew field goal tries longer than 50 yards.  Four downs for Manning.  Sweet.
  

2.) What's up with Anthony Gonzalez? He fell to the turf in pain during the first half of the 2009 opener.  We haven't seen or heard from him since.  Gonzalez has remained on the 53 man roster all season with a knee injury.  At some point along the way he suffered what Bill Polian described as a 'setback'.  This situation is reminiscent of Marvin Harrison's nightmare 2007 season.

• My guess: I can't see any way Gonzalez returns and contributes in a meaningful way.  But... what does it say about Hank Baskett that the Indy coaching staff thinks a rusty and hobbled Gonzo is worth keeping around as a potential playoff backup?  It says everything.

3.) What's up with Donald Brown? He has missed four games this season and has logged just 59 carries.  It would be unfair to label him a disappointment, but he hasn't yet lived up to his first round billing.  Colts fans, myself included, still have great faith in the kid.

• My guess: Caldwell knows how critical it is to have a potent two-back attack in the postseason.  Brown will get some work against either New York or Buffalo, and will be ready to go for the divisional round.   
  

4.)  Will the Colts finish the regular season undefeated? A lot depends on the team's performance against Jacksonville on Thursday night.  The Indy defense is coming off a physically draining game against the Broncos.  The Jaguars need this game as badly as a team can need a game.

• My guess: The Colts are going 16-0.  I think Peyton comes out firing on Thursday night because that's what Peyton does.  He shows up in primetime and clinches MVP awards.  I think the Colts beat the Jags in a fairly high scoring game.  I think the best way to handle the Jets is to play everyone.  The Jets aren't very good.  The Colts will be up big by halftime.  They can cruise to victory with the backups.  I think the Colts will beat the Bills with almost any combination of players they wish to put on the field.  It's gonna happen.
  

I've already written a piece praising Jim Caldwell's nearly flawless performance this year, and I don't want to recover the same ground today, but it's time to make the case for Caldwell as the best coaching performance in 2009.  Forget for a moment that the Coach of the Year award should go to the best coach.  It doesn't. It goes to the coach who most often out performs expectations.  That leads to some iffy winners from time to time. Past coaches of the year include: Mike Smith, Lovie Smith, Dick Jauron, Jim Haslett, Jim Fassel, Dom Capers, Ray Rhodes, Wayne Fontes, Lindy Infante (SERIOUSLY), and Jim Mora.

Jim Caldwell has excelled in every area of coaching.  His team is disciplined (fewest penalties in the NFL). He's been a good in game coach.  He hasn't lost a game...you know, little stuff like that.  Still, barring a 16-0 record, it might not be enough.  Even if Indy goes 16-0, he might not win.

This season, the prime candidates are:

Jim Caldwell, Colts:

Pros: Undefeated.  Disciplined team.  Has handled every hurdle.  Indy has had lots of injuries and young players playing more than expected, but they've been prepared and ready to play.

"Overperform Rating":  Low, but should be high.  Revisionist history says, "Of course the Colts won 12 games!  They always do!". But everyone forgets that many in the media had the Colts pegged for a 2nd place finish in the South and no more than 10 wins.  The Colts are better than people expected, but everyone has forgotten what they expected because the expectations were stupid in the first place.

Cons: He coaches Peyton Manning.  Everyone assumes Peyton runs the team anyway.  There is the perception that this is really Dungy's team and he is just a caretaker. He is quiet and doesn't play 'media games'

To win: His odds are rising.  He could win at 15-1 if the Saints don't go undefeated.  16-0 should do it though (one would hope).  Everyone has to be satisfied with how Indy finishes.

Sean Payton, Saints:

Pros:  Undefeated.  He's seen as an offensive innovator.  He's young, media friendly and dynamic.  He's taken on the 16-0 issue with gusto (which may or may not be smart, but the media likes it).  His team is considered by almost every major poll to be the best in football.  He "outcoached" Belichick on Monday Night Football.  The Saints are seen as a sympathetic story.

"Overperform Rating":  High.  The Saints were on few preseason lists as division winners let alone #1 overall seeds.  The Footballoutsiders for instance had them as an 8 win team.

Cons:  Everyone acknowledges that the biggest difference between the 08 and 09 Saints is their defense.  Gregg Williams has brought a blitzing style that has translated into massive improvement.  Payton has already won the award once.

To win: He's the odds on favorite.  16-0 would be a lock.  As long as the Saints go 2-1, he should viewed as a top choice.

Marvin Lewis, Bengals:

Pros: Bengals field one of the toughest defenses in the league, and Marvin is a defensive guy.  Swept the 'tough' AFC North for the first time in franchise history.

"Overperform Rating":  Off the charts.  The Bengals were expected to bad, mostly because they are always bad.  FO had them down for 7 wins, and they already have nine and a division title in a division with defending champs Pittsburgh and AFC finalist Baltimore.

Cons:  The Bengals are losing steam.  They've won 2 of 4 over Detroit and Cleveland, but still have to play San Diego and the Jets.  They may top out at just 10 wins.  Also, I don't think most people think Lewis is a great coach.

To win: Hope the first two guys lose a game, take the 2 seed in the AFC

Brad Childress, Vikings:

Pros:  Convinced Brett Favre to come to Minnesota

"Overperform Rating":  Low.  The Vikings are better than people thought, but they are crazy talented and won 10 games last year.  Sure the Favre thing has worked, but the Vikings were picked by many to win the division. FO had them slated to win 9 games and be a playoff contender.  They've been better than that, but not dramatically so.

Cons:  He's a terrible game manager.  He's not well respected as a coach.  If he wins, it will be a referendum on his decision to bet his career on Favre.

To win:  Win out, snake the 1 seed from the Saints (still possible, right?)

Jack Del Rio, Jaguars

Pros:  Searching...Searching....Searching...nope.  Can't think of any.  Just kidding. Has taken a young roster in a city that doesn't care and has them on the brink of the playoffs.  If they steal a spot, he could well be the winner.

"Overperform Rating": If they make the playoffs, off the scale.  The Jags aren't a good team, and everyone knew it coming in.  Ok, so the Outsiders had them down for 10 wins, but no one else did.

Cons:  Jags are fading fast.  They finish with Indy and New England and Cleveland on the road.  They won't make the playoffs and Del Rio will quickly fade as a candidate.

To win:  Make the playoffs

Josh McDaniels, Broncos

Pros: Young, Belichickian guy.  Fiery with his team.  Won the Jay Cutler showdown.  Got Brandon Marshall in line.

"Overperform Rating":  Excellent.  The Broncos were expected to be bad, but they've won 8 games already.  FO had them down for 5 wins.

Cons: Broncos started 6-0.  They've gone just 2-5 in their last 7 games.  He was the odds on favorite early, but is now just a second tier candidate.

To win: Win 11 games and the AFC West.  Hope everyone else on the list stumbles.