So I wasn’t exactly spectacular on my picks last week, but at least you would have made some money.  I went 2-2 on the actual picks with the Broncos and Bengals easily covering while the Colts were in position for about 58 minutes before Houston kicked a field goal up 9 to cover the spread (spread was 9.5).  As for Detroit, well I honestly don’t know what the heck happened in that one.  Losing 38-10 to the Cardinals surprised just about everyone, but I’ll admit I got that one wrong by a mile.  On the over/unders I was 2-1, I missed Bengals-Eagles, Cincinnati scored rather prolifically aided by a couple defensive TDs. 

If you weren’t with us last week, I will be picking three games (usually I’d do four, but not a lot of value plays this week) that I personally believe have good value against the spread.  I will also be picking some over/unders just to mix things up.  Just for fun I will also be giving you guys one upset money line pick, it will probably be a relatively low percentage play but with decent upside.

The Colts not only lost their week 15 game to the Texans, but the 29-17 final also eliminated them from contention for the division title. With those hopes dashed, the Colts turn their attention to their next goal: making the playoffs. The easiest way for them to accomplish this goal is to win one of their last two games. And while there are some very likely scenarios that see the Colts still make the playoffs even if they lose out, no one wants to enter the post season on a 3-game losing streak.

Their next opportunity to win a game will also be their easiest, as they travel to Kansas City to take on one of the worst teams in the NFL, the 2-12 Chiefs. Will the Colts be able to put their loss to the Texans behind them, overcome another round of key injuries, and beat the lowly Chiefs, or will Kansas City relish their spoiler role and make the Colts wait a little longer to punch their playoff ticket?

After the jump, we'll look at the key stats, match-ups and injuries that will help determine the outcome of this weeks game!

Today, we’re going to discuss some almost-good run defense, injury updates, excitement and anticipation of Pagano’s return, and, of course, a bit of the deep ball.  Join me.  Have a Colts Notebook with your coffee.  As usual, all quotes are from the Indianapolis Colts PR Department. 

So Close…

Last week in Houston, the Indianapolis defense played well for much of the game, even managing to contain several Houston’s normally devastating bootleg plays.  They also did a respectable job against Arian Foster, one of the league’s premier running backs…for about 55 minutes. 

Leading up to Houston’s final drive, in which the score was still 26-17 in favor of the Texans, the Colts had limited Foster to a good-not-great 20 carries for 90 yards (4.5 ypc).  While not a dominating performance by the defense, it certainly didn’t qualify as such for Foster and the Houston zone blocking attack either. 

Join Colts Authority Radio as Scott Kacsmar and Kyle Rodriguez discuss Week 15 in the NFL, playoff scenarios, and awards. 

In his 14th career game Andrew Luck experienced some career-worst numbers in a tough 29-17 loss to Houston that clinched the AFC South for the Texans. Luck had season lows in first downs (7), completions (13) and tied his career-low in passing yards (186). He also did not convert a single third down (0/7).

I came up half a sack short of my prediction for J.J. Watt to reach 20 sacks in the game – for the season that is, not in this one game – but he did still have a monster game, getting three of what became a career-high five sacks of Luck.

For the first time in eight games when given the opportunity, Luck did not put his team ahead in the fourth quarter in what was the Colts’ most feeble comeback attempt of the year.

But it wasn’t all bad as Luck avoided turnovers, and threw two touchdowns to give him 20 for the season. He is just the 7th rookie quarterback to reach that milestone.

There was a good reason for the struggles of the Colts’ offense in this one, and here is Watt happened.

Drive No. 1

Drive Stats: 11:41 left (1st quarter), trailing 3-0. 3 plays, 5 yards (three-and-out punt).

For the third straight game the Colts started with a three and out on offense. After Vick Ballard gained five yards on the ground, Luck heard (and felt) the first mention of “that pocket was collapsing around” him, and his pass to Donnie Avery was wide of the mark. On 3rd and 5 he was able to move to his left, but Glover Quin had good coverage on Reggie Wayne, defending the pass incomplete.

Despite the Colts' slide to a fairly unremarkable defeat on Sunday afternoon, there were a few positives I took from the game. Firstly, the improved showing against Arian Foster - in the first half when the game was closer, at least. Secondly, the Colts running game on offense, where Vick Ballard looks like a legitimate starter able to squeeze out vital yards on the ground. The final facet of the Colts' play that I was happy with was the reaction to the Texans' bootleg play-action game, a perennial thorn in the side for the Colts defense and a real personal annoyance of mine.

The Texans base their entire offense on the zone run, where Matt Schaub is able to drop back in exactly the same fashion to either hand the ball off innocuously or craft a devastating bomb to Andre Johnson - and it was the way the Colts adjusted that gave me the most satisfaction. Of course, in order to adjust, you have to perform badly or incorrectly, so let's get it out of the way..

The Texans line up in a 2WR 2TE 1RB bunch formation, which causes absolute devastation in combination with the off tackle play-action fake. Noone can match up with Andre Johnson adequately off the snap out of the formation, and as a consequence the Colts are on a hiding to nothing.

Vontae Davis has been the Colts' best cover corner this season, but struggled against Andre Johnson and the Houston Texans on Sunday. Davis hasn't been as good as hoped after trading away a second and sixth round pick for the young cornerback. Although he has the best pure cover skills on the team, he's struggled to track the ball in the air, leading to completions that should have been stops for the young defender. 

On Sunday, this was exactly what happened, as Davis allowed Schaub to complete eight of ten passes in his direction  for 119 yards. Why did Davis allow such big numbers? Here's a detailed look at how they happened. 

With Week 15 in the books, let's take a look at the AFC Playoff picture, where the Colts stand, and who to root for in Week 16, in our weekly look at the Colts Path to the Playoffs:

With week 15 losses from the Jets and Steelers, the Colts are the most "clinched nonclinched playoff team" in the history of history, with a ~99.97% to make the playoffs. In fact, there's only one scenario, involving every NFL game over the final 2 weeks, in which the Colts can miss out on the playoffs. You can view that scenario here, and it comes courtesy of Matt Grecco of Stampede Blue.

After the jump we'll look at this week's key match-ups and who Colts fans should be rooting for!

Today we’ll discuss rookies, big play offense, and injuries.  As usual, all quotes are courtesy of the Indianapolis Colts PR Department.  And now for the Notebook:

Chunk Plays

As you may have noticed, and as many Steelers fans would agree, Bruce Arians has a certain affinity for the big play, or chunk play, as he likes to say – gaining yards, usually through the air, in large chunks.  So great is his love for dramatic, downfield deep passes, that he has taken some criticism for being almost too aggressive.  One of the positive aspects is how demoralizing these big plays, like T.Y. Hilton’s 61-yard touchdown catch last week, can be to an opposing defense – when they work.  Still, it’s always a relief to see them just move the chains on third and short, and keep the offense on the field. 

The Colts week 15 loss to the Texans, while expected and predicted by many, was frustrating. Their defense performed better than expected, and their offense had the ball with a chance to take the lead in the 3rd quarter, but, as is often the case with young teams, they just couldn't get out of their own way, and their mistakes eventually did them in.

While they'll likely look back on yesterday and wonder, "what if?", their pontificating will have to wait, for now they must put the loss behind them and focus on the here and now: beating Kansas City and clinching a playoff berth.

There's not much to break down from the game: block JJ Watt, cover Andre Johnson, clean up the penalties, and what the heck Bruce Arians? Instead, after the jump, we'll talk about some interesting stats and off-season awards.