(This article can be found in the Fixtures Sidebar)

Over the past three years, we've tossed around a lot of theories, acronyms and inside jokes.  Sometimes, it gets old having to reexplain the same concepts over and over.  For new readers (especially drop in Pats fans) here's everything you need to understand the world of 18to88.

38-34:  The 2006 AFC Championship game.  The greatest game in Colts history

Aikmanville: Where Tom Brady lives.  It's a gated community reserved for great quarterbacks whose star fades over time because their rep was built only team accomplishments.

Argentina:  Where DZ currently lives.  He's an Indy native and maintains a permanent address there, but works in Argentina for a religious organization.

The Baltimore Colts:  The Baltimore Colts are not the Colts.  They don't want us.  We don't want them.  They started the pissing match with Indy, so don't expect us to respect that era of the franchise.

BBS:  Big Blue Shoe, aka Brad Wells, the lead blogger at Stampede Blue

Big Sexy (aka J Whit, aka Jason Whitlock):  Kansas City Star Columnist and Indianapolis native Jason Whitlock.  He hates the Colts, loves Jeff George, the Pacers and Ball State. He writes for foxsports.com, and is basically insane.  Still, he's an Indy boy, so we have his back.

Broad Ripple Tree Service:  Official sponsor (and employer) of 18to88.com.  Also check out Treestuff.com. The Dunlevy family businesses.  Call for an estimate today!

Bob Kravitz (aka Bobby K, Kravy, Uncle Bob): The columnist for the Indianapolis Star. Famously referred to us as weenies in a 2009 column.

Causation/Correlation:  There may be a relationship between two events, but one doesn't necessarily cause the other.  For instance, 100% of teams that kneel in the fourth quarter win games.  Kneeling on the football is NOT a strategy to win games.

CHFF (Cold Hard Football Facts):  Colts hating media whores.  We've done battle many times before, and their loathing of Peyton Manning drives us crazy.  Oh, and DZ sometimes writes for them.

The Curse of Cory Simon:  Simon was the Colts free agent pick up before the 2005 season.  He played one year before his career was ended by chronic fatness.  He then affected the destiny of the next three DTs the Colts tried to bring in, including Booger McFarland (knee), Quinn Pitcock (retired after one year), and Ed Johnson (a case of the munchies).  The Colts also traded for a DT with the Bills, but the deal was rescinded after he failed a physical.

Demond Sanders (aka DS):  The founder of 18to88.com, Luke Dunlevy.  The name honors Bob Sanders.  Demond is his real first name.

Deshawn Zombie (aka DZ):  Nate Dunlevy, co-author of 18to88.com.  The name was originally a joke.  Deshawn sounded like an appropriate name for Demond's brother.  The Zombie part refers to Bob Sanders (see The Zombie below).

Dwight Freeney:  The second most important and third greatest Colt...by far.

DVOA:  Defense-adjusted Value Over Average is the primary statistical tool of the footballoutsiders.  Follow the link for an explanation.

Eyes:  Eyes in the Backfield, a regular pre-game feature

FO: The Football Outsiders run the smartest football site on the web.  18to88 frequently refers to the the site and to their advanced metrics for understanding football.

Gilbert Gardner:  Aka the worst player to wear a Colts uniform.  Linebacker who couldn't figure out how to maintain his gap in the 2006 season.  His benching led to the Colts winning the Super Bowl.

GO FOR IT!: What DZ yells on almost every fourth down.  Going for it on 4th down is a cardinal tenant of 18to88.

Hate:  We hate the New England Patriots.

JC: Our resident Patriots fan.  JC is foul mouthed, crazy offensive, and sort of retarded.  He also has been a regular for more than two years now, so has full immunity to show up and say whatever he wants.  He's a lot of things, but he's not a troll.  He's contributed a lot to the 18to88 community, so don't whine when he says something to piss you off.

J-Holeville:  Jacksonville.  The sorriest city in the NFL.

Johnny O:  The writer of the Indy Football report (IFR).  Friend of 18to88, Johnny O also freelances for Colts.com and is one of the most respected names in blogging.

Kuharsky:  Paul Kuharsky of ESPN's AFC South blog.  I still haven't come up with a good nickname for him (Ku-har?)

"Luck":  18to88 recognizes that there is a lot of randomness in football. Not every game is won or loss on effort, cunning or skill.  "Fumble luck" is the idea that the recovery of a fumble is a random event.  "Return luck" speaks to the fact that TD returns off of turnovers are random events.

Mad Jack:  Jack Del Rio, coach of the Jacksonville Jaguars, who once chopped his kicker's leg off.  More or less.

Marvin Harrison is retired:  Is he?  Do you think we should change the name of our blog to 18to87?  No one has ever suggested that before!  Shut your hole.   Marvin Harrison is the second greatest Colt ever.  We are NEVER CHANGING THE NAME!

Mike Tanier:  Football Outsider, writer of the excellent Walkthrough column and friend of 18to88.

MMQB: Peter King's weekly feature on SI.com, Monday Morning Quarter Back.

MSM:  Main Stream Media

Movies:  Sometimes we review them.  Don't ask why.

Our First Post: Both hilarious and informative, it explains why we talk about sports other than football from time to time.  In the offseason, we refuse to be limited to just the Colts.  Deal with it.

"People are stupid":  Don't tell us what most people think about a subject.  Most people are usually wrong.  Opinions are valid if they are well reasoned or well supported.  We want stats or sound logic.  We care very little about "popular opinion".  Everyone is entitled to their opinion, but everyone is also entitled to be wrong.

Phil B:  Phil B Wilson of the Indianapolis Star. The originally credible Colts blogger.

Pythagorean Wins:  A mathematical formula shown to be more reliable for predicting future results than actual wins and losses.  It is based on points for and and points allowed.

Quarterbacks don't win games: Teams win games, not quarterbacks.  No individual player can be judged by wins and losses.  Teams can.  Coaches can.  GM's can.  Players can't.  QBs get too much credit and too much blame for the outcome of games.

Rolly Polly Bat Out of Hell: Gary Brackett.

Shake:  Long time reader and writer for Stampede Blue, Shakenbake.  His real name is Joe Baker, and he does great work.

Small Sample Size:  The fewer data points, the less reliable the conclusion.  This is the problem with judging players based solely on postseason performance.  There are too few games to reach a credible conclusion.

Sorgi Time:  The fourth preseason game/the final three quarters of the last regular season game.

Sparkle Kitties:  The Jaguars.  They have sparkly helmets for no apparent reason.  Then again, they have a team for no apparent reason too!

Spelling:  DZ sucks at it.  He's basically illerterate.

Star Wars:  It rules, and if you disagree I hate you.  The Empire Strikes Back is the greatest movie ever made, and I won't argue about this with you.

Two for None:  The reason I love it when the Colts lose the toss.  It occurs when one team gets the final possession to end the first half AND the first possession of the second half.  It is is an incredibly dangerous scenario for a defense.

Vandershank:  Mike Vanderjagt the most hated Colt of all time.  Missed two critical kicks in the final moments of playoff games.  Had the temerity to question Manning and Dungy, when he was the one who sucked.

Vic:  Vic Ketchman, writer of "Ask Vic" on Jaguars.com.  Famously declared the Colts to be fools for wasting Peyton Manning's career just a month before they won the Super Bowl.

VY:  Titans QB Vince Young.  File this under V for very very overrated.

Win Probability:  A great stat that tells you the likelihood of your team winning a game at any point in the game.

YPA:  Yards per attempt.  Perhaps the most important stat for evaluating passing efficiency.

The Zombie:  Our nickname for Colts safety Bob Sanders.  Sanders is often injured, but rises from the dead at just the right time and is unstoppable on the field.  Also, he likes to eat brains.

If you run across other phrases you don't understand, just comment here and we'll add them to the list.  Long time readers, please suggest other inside jokes or things that need to be listed here.

Yesterday, BBS over at Stampede Blue asked if the Colts would really have finished 6-10 if they had a different quarterback.  The thought has been echoed by many, most notably Eli Manning in a recent interview.  As always, there is no way to resolve such debates, but the numbers can be of some help.  In reality, the question can only be solved if we define the debate more clearly.  Saying "the Colts would be 6-10 with a different quarterback" requires some clarification.  There are at least three different scenarios that can be considered.

1.  The Colts are so bad, and Peyton Manning is so good that any other quarterback would win only six games with this team.

This statement is impossible to prove conclusively, but I think we can safely say it is false.  Consider the 13 win San Diego Chargers.  According to DVOA, the Colts had a better defense and a better run game by a wide margin.  The Chargers had better special teams play, but only slightly.  I don't think anyone would argue that the Chargers receivers are dramatically better than the Colts, and even if you think Gates is better than Clark, the gap isn't a chasm.  Phillip Rivers led the Chargers to 13  wins with essentially an inferior team.  So, with some certainty, we can agree that Manning is not the ONLY quarterback in football who could have coaxed the Colts into the playoffs.

2.  If the Colts didn't have Peyton Manning, they would win no more than 6 games with Curtis Painter.

Frankly, I'm not sure that's what people mean when they propose the question, but I don't doubt the statement is true.  In fact, I don't think they would win even one game with Curtis Painter.  However, no GM in his right mind would ever enter a season with a 6th round rookie draft pick as his #1 QB option, so if that is the comparison people are making, it's a false one.

3.  With an average quarterback, the Colts would win only 6 games.

This is something we can examine.  For our purposes, we'll look at the Jacksonville Jaguars and the Buffalo Bills.  The Jags played almost an identical schedule to the Colts and won 7 games, but their "expected wins" was only 5.5.  Seriously, the Jags OVERPERFORMED this year.  Wow.

According to DVOA, David Garrard was the most 'average' quarterback in football last year.  In essence, if you switched Garrard for Manning, how would the Colts fare?

Our second team actually won exactly 6 games last year.  The Bills are an odd case because they featured good play at most positions on the field, but had HORRIBLE quarterback play all year.

First, let's look at the three teams defense and Special Teams.  For defenses, a negative DVOA is good, for special teams a positive number is good.

We can plainly see that the Colts were an inferior defensive team to the Bills.  Even given the fact that Indy benched starters for three games and Buffalo plays in the snow (which hurts offense), it's important to note that the Colts defense has the advantage of playing with a good offense that generates better field position for them.  However, Indy did have a better defense than Jacksonville did.

After the defense, we look at the offense.  This is obviously pure conjecture because the quarterback should help or hurt the rest of the offense, but the raw numbers will give us a starting point.  First the running games and offensive lines

Both 6-10 teams had vastly superior running games to Indianapolis, which featured some of the worst run blocking in the league.  The big difference between the teams comes in pass protection.  The Colts had the best adjusted sack rate, and the Bills had the worse with the Jags not far behind.  We know that one of Manning's great strengths is his quick release and ability to avoid sacks.  With Curtis Painter under center (playing with some reserves), the Colts O line had a sack rate of 10.7% which would be the worst in football over a full season.  Again, some of that is on the quarterback.  Those of us who watched the Colts offensive line all season are not at all convinced that it was good.  I'm not saying it was as bad at pass blocking as the Buffalo line, but neither do I buy that it was actually the best pass blocking line in football.  Basically, I think we can safely assume the Colts offensive line and running game was no better than either of these other teams, and quite possibly was considerably worse.

It's difficult to evaluate receivers apart from the quarterback, obviously.  Buffalo did bring in an elite WR in Terrell Owens, but at this point in his career, who can tell if his drop in production was caused by age or the quarterback?  What we can do is try and adjust the number of points the teams scored by the VOA of the quarterbacks. Normally we use DVOA which includes an adjustment for defense, but in this case we want to know how the teams might have fared against the same schedules, so we'll use the unadjusted VOA number. This isn't what VOA is designed for, but it might provide some insight.  The Bills fielded two QBs who played almost the same amount and had almost equally awful VOAs. We'll give them the DVOA for Trent Edwards who was supposed to be the starter going into the season, but in the end it doesn't make a big difference.

Ultimately, this is a bit of a math game, and I admit I'm doing some things with the numbers that perhaps they were not designed for. Still, it gives us an idea about how much Peyton Manning means.  Without him, the 2009 Colts offense was basically the same as the 2009 Jags.  Indy has better skill players at WR and TE, so that would roughly offset the superiority of the Jags run game. The Bills clearly would have been a better team with an average quarterback.

If the Colts had gone into the season with substandard QBs like Fitzpatrick and Edwards, 6-10 would have been a good season.  With a completely average QB (which Garrard is the definition of both statistically and to the naked eye), Indy would have allowed 307 points and scored around 290.  Statistically, that leads to the Colts being between a 7 and 8 win team.

So, this doesn't prove anything, obviously, but it's food for thought.  Ultimately your answer to the question of how many games the Colts would have won without Manning depends on your opinion of the O line as pass blockers and if you think the Colts WRs are better than the run game is bad.  Personally, I think 7 or 8 wins with David Garrard sounds about right. With the Buffalo quarterbacks, 4-5 wins would probably be high.

UPDATE:  The more I think about it, the less I like my methodology.  Let's alter the Adjusted Points graph to reflect the percentage of run/pass play.  Then, I'll adjust the points down based on an average QB for just the passing downs.

Using this system the Colts fare a lot better without Manning than under the last system.  Granted, this isn't perfect either, because we should assume the QBs do aid or suppress the run game.  How bad would the Colts run game be without the threat of Manning going deep?  It's impossible to say.  This is just another lens through which we can view the problem  Under this system, the Colts average about 8.4 wins, so 9-7 would be more reasonable.  Again, it proves nothing, but might be a more accurate way to view the issue.

One of the unique aspects of the Colts is their salary structure.  Indy has a top heavy mentality populated by stars making a lot of money, and young players filling in the gaps.  Obviously, this has been a highly successful strategy, but not one without drawbacks.  The last several playoff losses for the Colts have revealed two things:

1.  A lack of depth at key positions.  There are certain positions on which the Colts place a premium.  At those spots (QB, DE, MLB for example), when Indy suffers an injury there is simply no way to replace the player.  Injuries to Dwight Freeney and Gary Brackett have devastated the Colts' defense in each of the last three years.

2. Poor special teams play.  Special teams is a tricky beast, because it generally doesn't correlate with winning.  Last year for example, only four playoff teams made the top 10 in special teams rankings.  Three of the worst teams in football were in the top 10 (Cle, TB, STL).  So over the course of a season, it's easy to argue that special teams don't matter.  Conversely, many excellent teams have lousy special teams units.  6 of the bottom 10 in special teams finished at least .500.  The Colts were 20th, and the Saints 28th.  It's foolish to try and over develop special teams units.  In any given game, however, they can make a huge difference.  Mike Scifres destroyed the Colts in 2008 with one of the great punting days of all time.  Terrible returns, a botched kick recovery, and a missed field goal cost Indy in the Super Bowl.  The Colts have survived quite well with this system, but it has burned them at inopportune moments.

Today, we are going to look at the Colts' 10 highest paid players (courtesy of Coltscap.net).  This provides real insight into what the Colts' value and where we'll likely see an emphasis in the draft.

1.  Peyton Manning, QB ($19.2 Million)-If he's not your highest paid player, something is wrong.  Irsay's recent statements show that the Colts don't haggle with the big stars.  They just pay them. Manning makes as much as the bottom 44 players on the Colts' roster COMBINED.

2.  Dwight Freeney DE ($13.7)-Again, he is the second most important Colt, and is paid accordingly.  He makes the defense work, as we are all painfully aware. With him, the Colts are formidable on D. Without him at full strength, they allow forced one third down in the second half of the Super Bowl.  Together Manning and Freeney represent just shy of 30% of the Colts currently committed money for the 2010 season.  That percentage will drop as more players are signed, but it still shows the impact on the salary structure at the top.

3.  Reggie Wayne WR ($8.2)-Wayne is the Colts #1 receiver, a locker room leader, and one of the top five wideouts in football.  There's no telling why he had such a rough Super Bowl, but I think we can all forgive him one bad game.  No one will have any beef with Wayne at #3.

4.  Kelvin Hayden CB ($7.86)-Hayden struggled with injuries this year and did not have his best season.  Generally, I'm pro-Hayden, but the argument can be made that he is the player on this list most 'out of position'.  Most that is a factor of being Indy's most recent unrestricted free agent.

5.  Dallas Clark TE ($7.81)-Clark had 100 catches, made the Pro Bowl and is a matchup nightmare.  He is an elite offensive weapon and would be nearly impossible to replace or duplicate.  Without question, he should be one of the top five highly paid Colts.

6.  Don Brown RB ($6.3)*-Brown's rookie deal pays $1.2, $6.3, $1.6, $1.8, $1.9.  Obviously, this year's total is the exception, which is great because there likely won't be a cap. For a more detailed description of how Brown's unique contract works, click here.  Once Brown's signing bonus gets paid, his entire contract is reworked, meaning he falls off this list entirely.  For now, I'm putting him here, but he won't actually be in the top 10 once the technical aspects of his deal are cleared up.

7.  Raheem Brock DT/DE ($5.89)-Brock is valuable and versatile, but I'm not sure he rates this kind of salary.  If this was a capped year, I wouldn't be surprised to see him go.  Indy could save $4.2 million real dollars by letting him go.  I think this is a deal that needs renegotiated.

8.  Robert Mathis DE ($5.81)-Should be in the top 5, and was last year.  His contract is awesome for the team and actually gets cheaper every year.  A Pro Bowl DE is a bargain at under $6 million a year.

9.  Ryan Diem OT ($5)-Diem did not have a great year.  Manning was mostly kept clean, but the Colts were 20th in the league running wide to the right.  Tackle is a premium position, and Diem is being paid premium money, but if he lost his job I wouldn't be shocked.

10.  Jeff Saturday C ($4.4)-Considering that Saturday just signed a new deal, it's amazing that he's not higher up this list.  Still, as important as he is, center is not premium position in the NFL.

The Colts' lone unrestricted free agent of note is Gary Brackett.  Last year, Brackett was the 11th highest paid Colt.  I wouldn't be surprised to see him crack the top 10 if he gets a new deal.

Other Colts of note include Bob Sanders (11th-$4.2), Vinatieri (12th-$3), Lilja (13th $2.4), and Addai (14th $2.2). No other Colt makes more than $2 million per season.

It's the offseason, so stuff that would normally show up in the Links gets shoved to the front page.

Today, take some time and be sure to read Mike Tanier's Walkthrough.  Consistently the single best weekly NFL feature not featuring the number 18, Tanier's piece this week focus on the Colts Achilies Heel...the Special Teams.  Later he addresses Colts' fans directly.

The return game was also a problem in 2008, when the Colts ranked 28th in the league in kick returns and last in punt returns. They were 22nd in kick returns in 2007, and while they were sixth in punt returns that year, a 90-yard touchdown had a disproportionate effect on their average because they returned just 25 punts all season. Remove it, and their average drops from 11.2 to 7.9, which is still pretty good by the Colts standards. Rushing and others also call for a high number of fair catches, which don't appear in the return averages.

The Colts can live with weak return units because their offense is incredible. But imagine if they took back a few precious yards of field position. The average Colts drive in 2009 started on the 27.0-yard line, the third-worst field position in the league. (The Raiders and Titans wore worse). The league median is 29.5, two-and-a-half yards away. Give Peyton Manning 2.5 more yards, and short field goals become touchdowns, while punts from midfield become field goals.

In other words, if the Colts can keep everything else equal while quickly upgrading their return game, they will return to the Super Bowl next year, and probably win it.

...

You have the power to decide what you will find satisfying or intolerable. The more things you find satisfying, the more satisfied you'll be. It's a pretty simple concept. It applies to everything: your career, your neighborhood, your marriage, and your fan experience.

If only a Super Bowl win will satisfy you, you will be dissatisfied, on average, by 96.875 percent of all your team's seasons. If that Super Bowl only brings you fleeting joy, you are in bad shape, because it may be the only one you will experience in your lifetime. If you can find the joy in other accomplishments -- a Super Bowl loss, a 13-3 season, an ordinary win on an ordinary Sunday -- then your fan experience will be much more rewarding. If you cannot, that's your prerogative

In the past two years, we've gotten Lost in a galaxy far, far away, as we've tried to predict the twists and turns of the NFL season.  This year, we aren't playing around any more.  We are here to crack some skulls and bring swift justice to the NFL.  That's right, we are looking for a dark tone this year.  With that, we give you the NFL in 2009...Batman style.

UPDATE:  Looking back over this season, I'd say we did pretty well.  Can you tell which conference we actually follow?

Prediction	AFC East		Batman Character	Result	Comment
Patriots 13-3			Clooney Batman: Looked like the hero, but the nipply batsuit was creepy and evil.		10-6 Seriously underperformed expectations.  Health of franchise in doubt.
Bills 7-9			Killer Croc: A classic case of alligator arms.		6-10 Doomed to live in the sewer
Dolphins 6-10			Mr. Freeze: Scares no one, but we can't stop staring at it.		7-9 Defense needed thawed out
Jets 4-12			Young Bruce Wayne: Too inexperienced to hurt the real villains yet		9-7 Batman Begins You couldn't ask for a better start to a franchise reboot.
Prediction	AFC North		Batman Character
Steelers 11-5			Keaton Batman: Hard to argue with the success, but that doesn't mean we have to like it.		9-7 A little overrated.
Ravens 10-6			The Joker: Crazy is written all over his face.		9-7 Turned upside down, but still kicking
Bengals 6-10			The Scarecrow: Equal parts disturbing and hilarious.		10-6 The Scarecrow (Batman Begins): Not my choice for an ideal foe, but it worked out, I suppose.
Browns 5-11			Chirs O'Donnel Robin: Sexy is not the same as talented		5-11 A once promising career, now destined for second string roles
Prediction	AFC South		Batman Character
Colts 12-4			The Dark Knight: The hero we deserve and the hero we need.		14-2 He'll take the blame...even though it's not his fault.
Texans 10-6			Poison Ivy (BTAS): Hard to resist the temptation		9-7 Get in bed with them, and you'll get a rash
Titans 9-7			Bane: Worthy enemy known mostly for his physical prowess.		8-8 Will pound on you, but if you are smart you can beat them.
Jaguars 6-10			Cat woman: No one goes to see them.  Destined to get screwed by Batman		7-9 P--sy
Prediction	AFC West		Batman Character
Chargers 14-2			Commissioner Gordon: Good at his job, but not nearly as interesting as Batman		13-3 Second fiddle.
Chiefs 9-7			Harley Quinn: Not as brilliant as the originally criminally insane clown.		4-12 Heist Henchmen Getting offed early
Raiders 5-11			Alfred (Batman and Robin): Old man who keeps on helping out Batman.  Frankly, the relationship disturbs me.		5-11 Die already.
Broncos 4-12			Two Face (Batman Forever): A disaster from the moment we laid eyes on it.		8-8 First they're good, then evil, finally pathetic.
Prediction	NFC East		Batman Character
Giants 11-5			Mr. and Mrs. Wayne: Tragically gunned down. The survivor never recovered.		8-8 Dead before the second act
Eagles 11-5			Manbat: The victim of a lame experiment gone horribly wrong		11-5 Got more attention than they deserved
Cowboys 7-9			The Mad Hatter: Believes he is the protagonist of the story, but can't nail the ending.		11-5 Stately Wayne Manor: Over the top, but functional
Redskins 6-10			The Ventriloquist: No matter whose lips are moving, we know who is pulling the strings		4-12 Gums flapping, but no one is listening.
Prediction	NFC North		Batman Character
Bears 12-4			Clayface: Remarkably transformed, strong and adaptable		7-9 Owlman Throwing to the wrong team
Vikings 8-8			Batman (Adam West): Old and dated.  Lingering scent of cheese		12-4 Old Bruce Wayne: Don't mess with this dude.  He may be gone, but you know he's coming back.
Packers 7-9			Bruce Wayne: Batman without the hero complex		11-5 Silver Age Batman: Classic hero type
Lions 6-10			Penguin (Batman Returns): Disgusting...if you bother to watch		2-14 Still smells fishy
Prediction	NFC South		Batman Character
Saints 10-6			Batman Squirt Gun: Truly frightening weapon.  We aren't sure what it is good for.		13-3 Grappling Gun: Multi-use weapon saves the day in inventive and unexpected ways.
Panthers 7-9			The Henchmen: Interchangeable parts deliver a beating, but won't ensure victory.		8-8 Cause a little chaos, but lack a competent point man.
Falcons 6-10			Robin: Young.  Seemed like a good idea at the time, but gets worse as things move along.		9-7 Heading in the wrong direction
Bucs 5-11			The Riddler (TV): A lot more questions than answers		3-13 Has a screw loose upstairs
Prediction	NFC West		Batman Character
Seahawks 10-6			Old Batman (The Dark Knight Returns): He's back...but he's showing his age.		5-11 Lego Batman Broken into little pieces
Rams 8-8			Nicole Kidman as Chase Meridan: Totally out of place on this list.  Not at all where you would expect to find them.		1-15 Alicia Grissom: uuuugly
Cardinals 6-10			Rachel Dawes: Rises from mediocrity only to die a painful death		10-6 Vickie Vale: Hotter than I gave them credit for
49ers 5-11			Batgirl: A thinly veiled excuse to dress up in tights		8-8 Barbara Gordon: Pretty useful from time to time.

It's Gonna Happen

We at 18to88.com are nothing if not accountable.  Here is a our recap of our famous preseason predictions.

Every year, we here at 18to88.com pride ourselves at making the boldest and most accurate predictions available on the internet.  Our track record is unassailable.  Our foresight boggles the mind and causes our readers to wonder at what mystic fount of insight we have tapped into. As you can see from past seasons, our abilities are stunning.

That's what we hope to write next year, anyway.  Submitted for your approval, 18 Bold Visions for 2009...

7.  The giant scoreboard in Texas stadium is removed after it affects the kicking game too much.

What the hell were they thinking?

Verdict:

It's a bingo.  Easiest call on the board.

Out of habit, Bill Polian immediately releases him even though his contract isn't up.

Verdict:

This one isn't on me.  Session deserved that nod.  He was awesome all year.

A word of warning:  I'm about to say nice things about Bob Kravitz.

This is going on the front page, because I cannot remember a time when our buddy Bobby K did a better job summarizing a game or the state of the franchise.

Usually after a postseason loss, I'm calling Kravitz names and responding to snippit after snippit of his articles by pointing out the mistakes.  Not today.  Today, you'll fine nothing but praise from me for lines like this:

(Can I say a word about Peyton Manning? I thought he had a very strong Super Bowl, and this idea that he's "the biggest loser'' is about as dumb as tabloid journalism can get. We'll never know who did what on the interception -- to their credit, neither Manning nor Reggie Wayne threw the other guy under the bus -- but on most days, 31-of-45 for 333 yards on just eight possessions is enough to win.

It wasn't his fault Garcon dropped the pass to end one possession. Or that Wayne dropped another one that would have been a score. Or that coach Jim Caldwell had a brain-cramp and sent Matt Stover out to try a 51-yard field goal. Defense lost this game. Special teams lost this game. Period.)

and

Now, though, there is a heightened sense of urgency. Manning is on the quarter-pole of his incredible career and there are only so many chances left. He will be 34 years old next month. That means he's got roughly five or six seasons left to add championships to his legacy, and with the coming labor war, it's possible one of those years could be taken away.

Polian hates to hear about windows, but there is a window of opportunity here, and it's going to close before you know it.

In terms of personnel, they're right there. A couple of tweaks, a couple of additions. Find a kick- and punt-return guy.

Wow.  The stuff Kravitz wrote today is so right on that I'm not even going to say anything backhanded.

It's a great piece, and everyone should read it.

Cold Hard Football Facts recently ranked the most crushing playoff turnovers of all time.  They put Manning's pick in the Super at #2.  That seems crazy high to me.  Let's look at some of the turnovers that were much more devastating than that one.  In fairness, CHFF only used conference championship games and Super Bowls, so I'll limit myself to those games.  To create this list, I'm using data from Advanced NFL Stats.  They have a lovely charting system that shows teams' win probabilities before and after each play.  Unfortunately, the game charts only go back to 2000, but it will still give us a decade worth of data.

Please note:  this isn't opinion based.  I'm just using the Cold Hard Facts.

1. Warner's pick in 2008 Super Bowl:  WP before 61%  WP after 16%.  Difference 46%

#1 on CHFF's list was unquestionably the biggest turnover of the decade, and possibly ever.

2.  Favre pick in 09 verses the Saints (NFC Championship):  Before: 83%  After: 42%  Difference: 39%

This was an infinitely worse mistake than Manning's.  The two shouldn't be compared. Favre's occurred with his team looking to win the game, and instantly they had less than a coin flip's chance of winning.  This was one of the biggest turnovers ever.

3.  Favre pick in 07 against the Giants (NFC Championship):  Before: 55%  After: 20%  Difference:  35%

Another total back-breaker from Favre.  It really seemed like the Pack had that game on a plate, but the pick destroyed all that.  Again, the Pack was favored to win at the time the pick occurred.

4. (tie) McNabb's pick in 2001 verses the Rams (NFC Championship):  Before: 33%  After:  5%  Difference: 28%

Hasselback's pick in the 2005 Super Bowl  Before:  43%  After:  15%  Difference: 28%

Flacco verses the Steelers 08 (AFC Championship)  Before: 31% After: 3%  Difference:  28%

For some reason, these plays have been overlooked.  All three were more damaging to their teams because both teams had more realistic chances of winning the game before the turnover than the Colts did.  Neither of the first two ended the game, so perhaps that's why they aren't recalled.  Flacco's pick six late in the fourth quarter last year was a crushing blow.

7.  Warner's pick in 2001 Super Bowl  Before: 67%  After: 42%  Difference: 25%

Another crushing pick six from Warner.  The Rams had a good chance to win before, but were hurting afterwards.  To me, turnovers that take a team from likely to win to likely to lose are the real back breakers

8. (tie)  Rex Grossman's interception in the 2006 Super Bowl  Before: 32%  After: 9% Difference: 21%

Peyton Manning's pick six in 2009 Super Bowl Before: 22%  After: 1%

I will say this about Manning's pick.  It came at a point when his team had the second lowest odds of actually winning of any turnover on this list.  However, it also completely destroyed his team's chances of winning, taking them down to 1%.  To call it the 2nd most crushing turnover in playoff history is just plain wrong.  It's barely in the top 10 for the decade.  It certainly was not "more horrendous" than Favre's pick against the Saints.  I don't think people realize how slim the Colts' chances were at that point.  With only 3 minutes to play (and three timeouts), the Saints were going to have the ball last.  They had scored on 5 of 6 possessions (the other ended on fourth down at the goal line).  A score by the Colts only would have postponed the inevitable.  Advanced NFL Stats has a great article about where the Super Bowl was REALLY lost.

10. Brady's pick 2006 AFC Championship  Before: 17% After 0%  Difference: 17%

A game ender, but certainly not worthy of inclusion on any list of worst turnovers. The Pats had very little chance to actually win the game.  The pick was just cosmetic, much like Manning's.

NOTE:

Tom Brady holds the distinction of having two of the worst turnovers of the decade in games his team WON. Because the criteria CHFF established was 'crushing', I won't include them on the list.  They do merit mentioning, however.

Brady's pick verses Panthers 2003 Super Bowl: Before: 92% After: 56%  Difference: 36%

Brady's pick verses the 2007 Chargers (AFC Championship):  Before:  75% After:  58% Difference: 17%

Brady's pick in the 2003 Super Bowl was so bad that it should have gone down as the third worst playoff turnover this decade.  Instead it is utterly forgotten, and he inexplicably was given an MVP award for the game.  It sure is nice to be Tom Brady.

Whitlock has a top 10 of all time QB list out. I don't want to split hairs with him; it's not the worst list ever, even if his criteria is all over the board.  His comments about Manning are what they are. Thanks to Garrison for the link.

Personally, I don't think you can rank QBs, but rather you have a pool of guys who did the most ever at their position.  I like the tier idea more than a straight list.  Here's a rough idea of who would make my top tier.  My criteria are:

1.  Impact on the game. How was the game different because they played?

2.  Fear they inspired

3.  Huge numbers over a long period of time.

4.  Unique skills

In no real order at all my all time top tier is:

Unitas-I love originals.  The first one to do something new gets massive credit with me...even if others came along and did it better later.  No one played QB like Unitas before Unitas. That earns him crazy cred with me.  Inventing the two minute drill in the greatest game of all time?  Seriously.  Nothing can ever beat that.

Montana-I love the passer rating.  It's my favorite stat.  The reason is because it was the stat that Montana dominated.  Four Super Bowls is nice, but Bradshaw won four, and he's nowhere near this list.  Montana might have been a 'system' QB, but he was the first of his kind in Bill Walsh's West Coast offense.  That makes him special in my book.  Sure he had great talent, so what?  Football is different because he played.

Elway-Yeah, I know he doesn't have the numbers, but he had a unique set of skills.  My all time favorite non-Colts game was the Elway/Montana Monday Night shootout.  Incredible game.  When I was a kid, Elway was the man, and everyone knew it.  The two late in his career championships directly lead to Favre coming back this year.  Every old QB has hope for one more like John...

Marino-Same boat as Elway.  I don't worry about the postseason nonsense.  Marino was incredible.  I saw him play a half dozen times live at least, and it was always a thrill.

Staubauch-Way underrated.  In doing my "Old Manning" research, he was the player who fascinated me the most.  His volume numbers were suppressed by a career in the Navy.  No way I dock him for that!  As a late bloomer, he gives hope to every 26 year old QB who hasn't figured it out yet.

Young-Again, I love me the passer rating and he's #1 all time (sorry Aaron Rodgers, I'm not counting you yet).  He could run and throw.  He was accurate and could hurl the deep ball.  He was good right up to the very end of his career.  He may have been best two way threat from the QB position ever.  Because he could throw better than run, I love him.

Starr-If I have to acknowledge the Brady/Aikman/Bradshaw crowd, I'm going to put Starr on the board well before any of those guys.  You want championships and post-season glory?  He had his fill first.

Tarkenton-Another giant.  Still ranks high on the all time lists in a lot of stats despite decades of retirement.  He may not have one THE big one, but he won plenty of big games along the way.

Manning-He is altering the way football is played forever.  To me that trumps everything else.  I've never seen other coaches fear a player as much as they clearly fear him.

The next tier for me is littered with right place/right time guys:  Brady, Aikman, Bradshaw types.  Honestly, the two players most likely to break into my elite tier are Roethlisberger (if he stays healthy) and Brees (he lead the league in passer rating...of course I love him).  I love Roethlisberger because as I've said many times, he does something Manning can't.  He is the only guy in the league who possesses a skill Manning doesn't have...he's a freak to tackle.  It'll get him killed before he's 30, but I love the way he plays.  I suppose Brady would make the tier if he wins big with the Pats fielding a mediocre defense. Those three have the best shot.

Anyway, sorry for the generic 'fan' post with no real numbers or stats.  It's not my finest work, but consider it a conversation starter for the weekend.  Until the book is done, I'm saving my heavy research.  Next week I'll get around to updating some of the preseason prediction pieces.