Christensen named OC

Written by Nate Dunlevy.

Johnny O reports that the Colts have a new offensive coordinator.

Tom Moore is still coaching for the Indianapolis Colts.

But for the first time since joining the staff in 1998, his title won’t include “offensive coordinator.”

Moore, the Colts’ offensive coordinator from 1998-2008 and the senior offensive coordinator this past season, now will hold the title of senior offensive assistant, with Clyde Christensen — a Colts assistant since 2002 — being promoted from assistant head coach/wide receivers to offensive coordinator and Pete Metzelaars being promoted from offensive quality control/assistant offensive line to offensive line coach.

Well, I didn't see that coming.  That's a cool move, however, and typical of the egoless way the Colts seem to operate.  Moore hangs around, but gives up the title.  The Colts still benefit from his wisdom and experience while breaking in a new coordinator.  Kudos to everyone involved.

In other news Metzelaars is the new line coach (as expected).  Ron Turner is the WRs coach; Ron Prince is an assistant line coach.

Six years later

Written by Nate Dunlevy.

I hate 'day after draft' grades, but I'm a sucker for draft retrospectives that let time pass first.  Needless to say, I'm totally in the tank for FO's look at the 2004 draft.  The 2004 draft was a crazy one and the most amazing part is that we STILL don't have an answer to who the best quarterback was.  Normally, I'd go with Roethlisberger, but with his notable off the field issues, there's really no guarantee what will happen to him.  Personally, I like Eli a lot more than Rivers.  I consider Rivers one of the most overrated players in football, but that's just because he doesn't pass my eyeball test.  He's had two good seasons (2008 and 2009), but I'm just not sold...though I admit a case of extreme bias.  At any rate, given all the factors, you can't blame the Giants for trading for Eli.  They won a title.  Maybe they'd have won another with Roethlisberger, but I doubt it.

What's really interesting about 2004 was the Colts' selection of Bob Sanders.  Indy wanted Bob from the go, and he was easily the highest rated player on their board. They knew that teams were scared of the injury factor with him, however.  They traded down and took him at 44.  This was a great decision and a calculated risk.  As a Colts fan, it's unfair to get bent out of shape about Bob's injuries.

1.  They knew he was likely to get hurt when they drafted him. He was hurt WHEN they drafted him!  Indy only got him at 44 because they were willing to take the risk.

2.  They knew his injury history before they resigned him.

Sanders has always been a gamble.  When the Colts drafted Trev Alberts, they didn't know he was already hurt and would suck.  That's a bad pick.  When they drafted Emtman, he had zero history of injuries, but blew out both knees in his first two years.  That's bad luck.  But with the Zombie, they knew what he was.  They took a calculated risk.  High risk, HUGE reward.

That's who Bob Sanders is.  That's who he'll always be.  All told, it's worked out pretty dang well.

Given the chance to do it all over again, I'd bet Polian makes the same decisions again.  Bob'll be back this year and everyone will remember just why we love him so.  Even if he doesn't hold up again, we still have that nice banner hanging from the rafters thanks to him.

Dogs with Bite

Written by Nate Dunlevy.

Good news for everyone who still loves basketball in Indiana (both of you), the Butler Bulldogs will bark again this weekend.

Before I go on, I apologize for the slow week, but I'm fighting the flu and breaking in a new computer at the same time, so with nothing interesting happening with the Colts, I haven't forced myself to write something just to have something to talk about.  And for the record, no, I don't find rumors about Incognito that don't pan out to be interesting at all...that felt like like a 'no effing way' story from the go.  That was  typical Florio nonsense.

No, what really interested me this week was seeing how Butler was going to come out today.  I've been a closet Butler fan since my dad used to take me to their games when I was a kid. I own exactly one Butler shirt.  Does that make me a band wagoner?  Sure, but with the state of round ball in the State of Round Ball, what choice do I have?  The Irish already went down, and I'm morally opposed to rooting for Purdue basketball (not that it would matter).  So that leaves Butler.

Unfortunately, because the NCAA powers that be hate Butler and love to give them a crappy seed, no matter what the rest of the country thinks, the odds aren't great that we'll see a Hoosier college in the Sweet Sixteen.  (edit:  Yeah, so I'm a retard.  I slept through the afternoon games (remember the flu?).  I didn't put together that Butler was playing Murray State.  Color me "idiot")  That didn't stop me from putting the 'Dogs in my Final Four.  Butler playing in the Luke?

What could be better?

Other than, you know, football season coming back.

Fare thee well, Tim Jennings

Written by Nate Dunlevy.

Though ultimately my opinion of Jennings improved (slightly) over the past few years, I can't say I'm shedding any tears over his departure to the Bears.  Here's the scouting report I worked up for Midway Illustrated (a Bears blog) about Jennings.

I guess I'm going to have to find a new whipping boy.  If anyone signs Charlie Johnson away from us, I might have to shut the blog down altogether.

Hope Springs Eternal

Written by Nate Dunlevy.

With just three weeks to Opening Day and only four days until my annual "Die Hards" fantasy draft (My keepers are Tulowiski, Pedroia, Youklis, Kinsler, Sandoval), I want to take just a few minutes to discuss the state of my beloved Reds.  First let me direct you to the excellent Brewers site Brewers Bar where I answered some questions about the Reds. He is doing Q/As with all the teams in the NL Central, and the Cubs and Pirates have already been posted.  I did the interview a few weeks ago, and already I can feel myself getting sucked in to the season.  I still feel that the Reds are still one year away, but if they still had Adam Dunn in left the time would be now.  Sigh.

What interests me pertains to the discussion from yesterday about MLB parity and the lack of a salary cap.  As I stated, there were 7 MLB teams that did not make the playoffs in the decade.  The Reds are one of them.  Four of the clubs are so badly run that I don't believe they could compete under any circumstances (Baltimore, the Royals, Pirates and Nationals).  Those teams are rarely competitive, but it doesn't have as much to do with money as it does terrible ownership.

The other three non-playoff teams have a case for 'economic predjudice'.  Toronto has had good clubs with lots of talent, but can't get past the Yankees and Red Sox.  Of course, Tampa managed to do just that, so maybe the Jays should shut it.  The Rangers are a team on the rise now that they have Nolan Ryan running the show, so perhaps they'll break through in the next couple of years.  Then comes the Reds.

If there is a poster child for economic injustice in baseball, the Reds are basically the only team that qualifies.  They've had lots of talent but little depth for a decade.  They had chances to pull huge trades, like when Scott Rolen was coming to Cincy, but the deal was voided by ownership thanks to salary pressure.  In the Reds favor is that they are in a division with other modest market teams.  Honestly, there is no need for 'economic realignment' in baseball.  There already is economic alignment.  It's called the NL and AL Central divisions!  If the Reds had had $15-20 million more in revenue this decade, they would have made the playoffs.

Listen, it sucks being a fan of team that has been held back by economics, but ultimately, I don't think the system is broken just because one team is caught in no man's land.  What it has done is finally force the Reds to get smart about mining Latin America for talent and to focus on young pitching.  Now if the team could just figure out that Adam Dunn is cheap at $9 million per and Wily Taveras is expensive at $3 million, the arrow would be pointing up even higher than it already is.

It's spring and I'm hopeful.  The Reds need a miracle to contend, but at least there is a visible path for once.  If all those pitchers can just...no.  I'm not going talk myself into it.  It just makes it hurt worse later.

If there was a salary cap...

Written by Nate Dunlevy.

Profootballtalk has posted a list of what teams WOULD have for a cap figure this year if there actually was a cap.

There are two important things to note:

1.  The Colts have the second highest number in the AFC. Currently Indy is just below last year's number, but still has to sign the RFAs and the draft class.  The result should be a modest payroll increase for the defending AFC Champs.  The only team higher?  The Raiders (go figure).  The Colts are tied for the 8th highest number overall, which should tell you how much money is being spent in the NFC (which is rife with the biggest markets in the NFL).  The real consequence of a capless NFL could be that the balance of power swings to the NFC.  The AFC has big markets like New York, Boston, and Houston, but on the whole is populated by a slew of small town clubs.  Buffalo, Cleveland, Cincinnati, Jacksonville, Nashville, Indianapolis, and Kansas City are among the smallest markets in pro sports.

2.  Lots of teams aren't spending money at all. PFT also gives the 8 teams that are on track to spend well below the salary floor.  No surprise that the Jags are on that list.  The Colts have four games against the bottom feeders next year and three against the big spenders. Of course of those three games only the Cowboys should be good (unless Oakland and Washington suddenly turn it around).

The free agent season still has to shake itself out, but the long term ramifications of a capless league are staggering.  One argument I don't want to hear is how the NFL will become like baseball in terms of pariety.  The NFL already wishes it was like baseball in terms of parity.

Since 2000, 22 23 of 30 MLB teams have made the playoffs (77%).  21 teams have made the LCS (70%).  14 have made the World Series (47%).  8 won titles (26%).

Since 2000, 28 of 32 NFL teams have made the playoffs (88%), but only 21 of 32 made a conference championship (66%).  Only 13 have made the Super Bowl (41%).  Only 7 won titles (22%).

The only reason the NFL has a high percentage of teams that have made the playoffs over this span is because they allow a higher percentage of teams to qualify.  37.5% of the league makes the NFL playoffs compared with just 26.7% of MLB teams.  Even with the salary cap, the NFL has less parity and competition than baseball.

"Winning Time" Airs tomorrow

Written by Nate Dunlevy.

Just a reminder to everyone that the 30 For 30 doc on Reggie Miller and the Knicks will air tomorrow on ESPN at 9 EST.  It's going to be epic.

Simmons loves Polian?

Written by Nate Dunlevy.

When Bill Simmons says nicer things about our GM than some Colts fans do, then you know the world has gone totally crazy.

Near the end of the afternoon, I was talking to Polian, someone whom I was hoping would be an a-hole (since he runs my least favorite football team and all) but couldn't have been a nicer and smarter guy. He's one of those people you spend 20 minutes with and end up saying afterward, "It totally makes sense to me why that guy was and is so successful." And again, I wanted to hate him. So we were saying our goodbyes and I asked why he was skipping the last group of panels. He answered that he was doing some scouting with his friend Brian Burke, the GM of the Maple Leafs. Burke had a player he liked. Polian was tagging along.

I was confused. We were less than 36 hours into the NFL's craziest free-agent signing period ever. We were just six weeks away from the NFL draft. Why would Polian want to spend a Saturday night at a high school hockey tournament in Massachusetts?

"Because I respect Brian and the way he thinks," he said. "I might learn something."

Here's Bill Polian, one of the best football executives of all time, someone hitting the tail end of his career with nothing left to prove … and he still felt as though he had something to learn. That's also why he came to Dorkapalooza, and that's why Dorkapalooza is here to stay. You can never run out of things to learn.

You all know where I stand.  I unreservedly love everything about Bill Polian, especially the fact that he's weirdly truculent, defensive, and acts like everyone else is stupid. If anyone can relate to a guy like that, I can.  All I ask is that he keep fielding a winning team.  He can piss off everyone else.  He can run the most tight lipped team in the league.  He can insult and belittle the media and the fans.

I

don't

give

a

crap.

Just keep winning, Bill.  That's all I care about.  Well, that and not cheating.

Check the Byline

Written by Nate Dunlevy.

Today is something of a landmark day here at 18to88.com.  In honor of having finished the first draft of my book on Colts' history, we are officially dropping the pen names we've been using for the past three years.

Originally, we were just screwing around when we started this blog, and never figured anyone would read it.  We took the names to honor Bob Sanders to whom we will forever be in debt for winning us a Super Bowl simply by turning our opponents to stone with his Medusa-like dreads. Honestly, we never thought much about the screen names until after the 88 Reasons to Hate the Patriots, when we enjoyed the anonymity they provided.  Personally, I enjoyed having an identity that was separate from my normal life, but over time the names "Demond Sanders" and "Deshawn Zombie" have outlived their usefulness. For almost a year now, our names have been posted on the website although discretely.  Many of you access the site through my Facebook page as well.

Now with the impending release of the book (details coming soon.  I would expect it around the start of training camp or the regular season), there is less need than ever to maintain the screen names. I'm afraid they'll just confuse people as we move forward from here.  Now that we finally have a financial incentive to do so, we are moving into the realm of respectability.  My sincerest hope is that this doesn't become a 'jump the shark' moment, though we are considering adding our Cousin Oliver as a regular writer.  My guess is that many of you have already seen through this post as a thinly veiled attempt to have something to write about during a slow week.  Busted!

Seriously though, there will be no other major changes coming.  Nate Dunlevy can't spell any better than DZ can.  He's also just as big a know it all football snob.  He just has infinitely less cool initials. I expect Luke Dunlevy to be just as surly and absent as Demond Sanders, though he is a much better on line vendor of  tree equipment.

So while I'll still probably sign most of my 18to88 emails and comments "DZ", from here on out it'll be real names only on 18to88.  Here's a photo that nicely sums up my life.  So many things that matter to me are encompassed in it, including one of my best friends here in Argentina.  As you can see, it's pretty much the same stuff you already knew.

Hi, I'm Nate.

Nice to meet you.

The Kindest Cuts

Written by Nate Dunlevy.

Recently, the Football Outsiders published a list of 10 players who should be cut in this uncapped year so as to free their teams from the signing bonus money that must be accounted for.  The idea is that the player could then immediately be resigned by the team, thus wiping out the future impact of past bonuses.  Bob Sanders made that list for the Colts.

Bob Sanders, S, Indianapolis Colts
No one doubts Sanders' incredible talent, but since he signed a $37.75 million contract extension in December 2007, he has played in four of a possible 32 regular-season games. More than $7.3 million in bonuses remain on the Colts' cap over the next three years; the team is better off cutting Sanders and re-signing him to a new, cap-friendly deal.

The problem with this plan is that the cut player would be a free agent, able to sign with any team.  If Bob Sanders was suddenly a free agent, I guarantee you he would get a deal for more than the $2.2 million the Colts are slated to pay him this year.  Teams have money to spend, but there aren't enough good players to spend it on.  That doesn't mean the point of the article is wrong, just the application.

Personally, I believe the CBA uncertainty will last past this season and into the next league calendar year.  The Colts have several players who could well be on the chopping block next year.  Anyone due a big roster bonus or with a lot of unaccounted for bonus money could potentially be released after the season in order clean up the cap situation assuming the cap ever comes back (which is a HUGE assumption).  Unless a new CBA miraculously materializes before next March, the Colts will still be able to employ "the wipe the slate clean" strategy.  There's no rush to employ it right now.  Why not wait until the last possible minute to try this tactic?

The following Colts could be candidates for this process.  They are all big names and could be resigned immediately if the team could work out a deal with them.  Normally, a team has some incentive to keep a player because cutting them can occasionally be more expensive cap wise than keeping them.  That isn't the case as long as there is no cap, however. Remember, the main reason a player qualifies for this list is to clear out his already paid, but unaccounted for bonus money.

1.  Bob Sanders. After this year, the Zombie will still have about $4-5 million in bonus money unaccounted for.  His salary jumps to $5 million next year and $7 million the year after that.  Now, if Bob plays all year and is healthy, he is 100% absolutely worth that money.  If he doesn't play, he's gone come next February.

2.  Dwight Freeney-Surprised?  Don't be.  The Colts have to account for $10 million in bonus money paid him.  His salary hits $11 million in 2011, and would be a cap hit of $16 million.  No one loves Freeney more than me, but he's at that magic age.  If he shows any signs of slippage, the Colts cannot afford to miss the chance to get out from under his deal.

3.  Dallas Clark-Again, don't be shocked to see his name.  He still has just shy of $6 million of bonus money to be accounted for.  Tight ends tend to decline right about the age that Clark is now hitting.  If he has an injury plagued 2010, the Colts will have to consider getting out from under his contract.

4.  Kelvin Hayden-Nearly $9 million in unaccounted for bonuses, and a huge salary jump.  Corners are fungible in the Colts system, and while I like Hayden, 2009 was not his finest season.  He needs to stay healthy or else.

5.  Gary Brackett-He's on the list only because I haven't seen how his contract breaks down.  I assume it would be 'hypothetical cap friendly' for two to three years, but just in case it isn't, the Colts could part ways.  It's extremely unlikely, however, because the Colts paid him $12 million in bonus money.  If they wanted him for just one year, they could have franchised him for $9 million.  Still, all 30 year old linebackers have to be aware of getting axed.

By the way, the following Colts will be free agents next year.  For now I'm assuming there won't be a CBA and the same rules as this year would apply.

Adam Vinatieri (UFA), Joseph Addai (RFA-only 5 years of service), Ugoh (RFA)

I assume that Vinatieri will be gone.  Ugoh will probably not be tendered unless he has a great year.  Addai is trickier.  I would guess the Colts wouldn't mind having him back at a reasonable one year tender, but would REALLY love to get a draft pick for him.

Other free agents could include all the guys who are currently RFAs depending on what deals they eventually sign.

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