We know that the Colts use metrics to reduce the subjective opinion of their scouts . . . We just don’t know what those metrics are. Since the draft, I’ve been scouring the statistics of the last six years of Colts draft picks, trying to find some sort of rhyme or reason to the methodology of how the Colts draft. The goal of this project is to figure out a statistical basis for the prototypical Colt. Therefore, we can attempt to figure out college players who are potential future Colts. If successful, this would narrow the field of possible draft picks considerably and allow us more insight into the draft philosophy of the Colts.

Through this research, I noticed some distinct patterns for three different groups: 1^st and 2^nd rounders, 3^rd and  4^th rounders, and 5^th, 6^th and 7^th rounders. Today I will focus on the 1^st and 2^nd rounders from the 2004-2010 drafts.

In the last seven drafts, the Colts have had 12 1^st and 2^nd round selections. Out of those 12, 10 have been seniors when drafted, 11 were in BCS conferences, five were team captains, and at least 11 graduated from their institution of higher learning (I was unable to find a definitive source on if Donald Brown graduated).

Concerning the measurables, height does not seem to be an issue (a big duh from anyone whose watched the Colts in the last 5 years). However, speed is crucial. Other than Marlin Jackson, every Colts' pick had near elite or elite speed for his position. Regarding Jackson, his speed was still above average, just not elite.

Instead of posting the statistics for each pick under production, I chose to rate it on a 1 to 5 scale, with 1 being poor, 2 being below average, 3 being average, 4 being above average and 5 being elite. In order to determine what category each player fit into, I compared his stats to those of his teammates and college football as a whole for the year he was drafted. For instance, I gave Donald Brown a 5 as he led the nation in rushing. However, as good as Joseph Addai’s YPA was in college, I could not give him above an average rating (3) in production - he always split carries and never broke 1000 yards in a season. This is not a knock on Addai, just the reality of how LSU chose to use him. The Colts only had 2 picks without above-average or elite production, Addai and Hayden. However, Hayden is a special case as he only played CB for his senior season at Illinois and therefore could not have greater than average production with one year at the position. Half of the Colts picks had elite production, ranking as one of the best at their position statistically for at least one year.

After looking through these statistics, I think they can be categorized into three categories: Should have, might have, and doesn’t matter.

A 1^st or 2^nd round Colts pick should have been a college graduate, come from a BCS conference, and have at least near elite speed and production for his position.

A 1^st and 2^nd round Colts pick most likely was a senior, a team captain, and had prototypical weight for his position when drafted.

Height seems to be the only category I studied that was deemed irrelevant to the Colts drafting philosophy.

So what can we learn from these metrics? First, in my opinion, a degree is mandatory for a Colts 1^st and 2^nd round pick. The dedication it takes to graduate from college while playing football at an elite level is the dedication it takes to be successful in the NFL. The Colts drafting philosophy surely reflects this. Next, when it comes to measurables, speed and production are the most consistent for Colts 1^st and 2^nd round picks. Colts picks must be fast and productive in college. It is clear that the Colts believe that it is production, and not talent or physical ability, which governs what makes a successful NFL player. Last, and I think most important, is that while the Colts use tools like these, they are willing to make exceptions. Until the Hughes pick, the Colts hadn’t drafted a non-BCS conference player in the 1^st or 2^nd round since Idrees Bashir in 2002. Even though it seems that Hughes and Hayden do not metrically fit the prototype for a 1^st and 2^nd round Colt, they were and the team is better off for it.

Based on these statistics, and the fact that Mr. Polian stated Jerry Hughes was the last player the Colts had graded as a first round player, I think it is safe to assume that this was the Colts first round draft board. I have taken off players that I do not believe fit these metrics and listed the remaining in the order they were selected. Even though Tim Tebow fits the profile, the Colts publically stated they would not pick him before the fourth because he's not a pro-style quarterback. 

Sam Bradford, Ndamukong Suh, Gerald McCoy, Trent Williams, Eric Berry, Russell Okung, Rolando McClain, C.J. Spiller, Brandon Graham, Sean Weatherspoon, Demaryius Thomas, Dan Williams, Devin McCourty, Jared Odrick, Kyle Wilson, Jerry Hughes.

That only makes 16 out of 32 drafted in the first as possible Colts. I’m sure there was a few more that made that list, but it wouldn’t surprise me if it were only those 16.

Welcome to the new and improved 18to88.com.  We've updated our commenting system.

It may take a little while to get used to, and I'm sorry for those who have to re-register.  I know it's a hassle.  Among the many new advantages is that you'll be able to respond to comments via email.  This should help to facilitate debate here on the site.  The only downside is that we've lost the comments from just this months' previous posts.  I'm sure we can all live with that.  Also, if you comment on articles older than May 1st of this year, the old comment system is still in place.

I also want to take this chance to introduce (again) Jesse Nocon.  Jesse broke onto the scene a few weeks ago with a great scouting report on Kevin Thomas.

Jesse is a student at USC and wants to become a scout.  He'll be doing some regular work for 18to88 mostly focusing on draft/college scouting stuff.  As you know, that's always been a blind spot for us, because we just don't follow the college game closely enough.

Jesse won himself a 'spot in the starting lineup' with his incredible piece which will debut tomorrow.  Trust me, you won't be disappointed.  A lot of people have tried to get writing jobs here, but my standards are high.  Jesse's first article was so strong that I asked him to be a regular without hesitation.  Tomorrow, he'll attempt to 'crack the code' the Colts use to build their draft board.  I found his research to be compelling.

I'm considering installing a new commenting system for 18to88, but I want reader feedback.

We all sit in awe of the tremendous commenting features at Stampedeblue.  They clearly foster community and interaction better than any other system.

I'm considering switching 18to88.com over to a similar style system called Intense Debate.  For a sample of the style check out this blog.  I'm still not certain if it does the 'live comment update' that SB Nation has.  I'm trying to nail that down.  Still there are other advantages.

Among the upsides:

-Nested comments make it easier to track arguments

-Respond directly via email (gotta tell you, that sounds awesome to me).

-Choose to get email response to just your comment or to all comments in the thread

The negatives:

-It would obliterate all old conversations. I might be able to save them the way we saved the MVN comments though.

-Unless you already have an Open ID, you would have to reregister for the new service.  That's a pain in the neck.

Any thoughts?

The Colts need a fourth and fifth corner.  With the injury to Kevin Thomas, who might step in?  These are the players on the roster right now who might make the team as the dime and backup corners.  Thomas was unlikely to crack the starting line up, but his loss will still be felt.  He was likely to play in special teams situations, and we all know what injuries do to special teams play.

Ray Fisher (R-7th)-A converted corner from Indiana.  Polian mentioned his corner skills almost as an add on.  He was clearly drafted more as a returner.  I imagine the team would be thrilled if he proved to be a viable DB too.  If Fisher wins both return jobs and the dime (or even 5th corner) job, he has to be considered a home run pick.

David Caldwell-UDFA Looks like he mainly played safety in college.

Jordan Hembly-UDFA from North Carolina.  Had a lot tackles, but doesn't seem to have been a starter his senior year.

Brandon King-A UDFA out of Purdue was a three year starter for the Boilers.  If he ever had to defend against Drew Brees, the Purdue fans' heads would explode.

Thad Turner-UDFA out of Ohio.  Another converted wide out.

Terrail Lambert-FA originally with the 49ers who was on the practice squad last year.  He is out of Notre Dame.  You'd have to like his chances given the fact that he's been around for another year.

Donye' McClesky-UDFA out of Indiana State.  Well, he should be right at home during training camp.  He tallied a ton of tackles in college.

Melvin Bullitt-Well anything is possible.  Personally, I think the Colts will judiciously protect their safeties, but if you wanted to get some heavy hitters on the field against a team featuring a 4 wide set with a tight end, maybe Bullitt could see some work as the dime man.

Basically, we need to find Jacob Lacey part two, because we just lost Jerraud Powers part two.

Nothing like starting the injury train early.  3rd round pick Kevin Thomas blew out his knee las weekend and might miss the whole season.  I actually was passed this story this morning, but could not find any independent confirmation of it until the Colts released their statement.  Apparently Gil Brandt had the story last night.

This is obviously a great disappointment.  Let's get a couple of points clear:

1.  A blown knee is a bad break. It has NOTHING to do with a player being injury prone.  Unless a player has a specific history of injuries to that particular knee, you can't draw a straight line from any prior injury to a popped ACL.  That's silly.  Some injuries have nothing to do with a player's toughness or history.  They just happen.

His injury list from college was:

Freshman year: Mononucleosis.

Sophomore year: sprained ankle, broken foot

Junior year:  Shoulder (redshirt)

He played every game in his final two seasons.  That history has NOTHING to do with a blown knee.

Nothing.

2.  This doesn't mean Thomas was a bad pick.  Does anyone remember Brandon Burlsworth?  He was the Colts 3rd round pick a decade ago.  The young man was killed shortly after the draft.  That wasn't a bad pick.  It was a tragedy.  This is obviously not to that level, but it is still tragic.  Unfortunately for Thomas and the Colts, it means we may never get the chance to judge if it was a bad pick or not.

3.  We still need another corner-Ray Fisher?  Who knows.  This was a big loss because the Colts were thin at corner and were counting on SOMETHING out of Thomas.

Ah the Texans.  The team that always teases us into thinking they are ready to take the next step.  In 2009, the Texans were 8-2 against the rest of the NFL, but only 1-5 against the AFC South.  It's hard to predict ascendancy for a team that can't beat the teams in its own division.  Of course, the Texans are a very young team, and that's not a good formula for winning tough divisional games.

There was a lot of good for the Texans last season.  After all, they posted their first winning season, only missed the playoffs because of a tiebreaker with the Jets (who beat them in week 1, which shows how important EVERY game is in the NFL), and had a break through season from quarterback Matt Schaub.  Schaub made the Texans scary all season.  There's no question that the Texans have solved the most difficult part of the winning equation in the NFL: they have an elite quarterback.

Unfortunately for them, despite the heroics of Schaub and all world wideout Andre Johnson, the Texans still haven't solved the second half of the winning formula.  They couldn't stop the pass in 2009.  Their defensive passer rating was a mediocre 83.2 and they were 18th against the pass. In other words, they have an average passing defense, but play in a conference featuring some of the best quarterbacks in the history of the game.  As we are all aware, the Texans have only beaten the Colts once in their history, so without an improvement to their pass defense, they are unlikely to topple them again.

The pressure has to start up front, but Mario Williams didn't have his best season last year.  Despite two sacks against the Colts, he posted only 9 for the year.  That's a respectable total, but as a team the Texans were 20th in Adjusted Sack rate and no one other than Williams had more than 5 sacks.  The Texans addressed their secondary in the draft taking corner Kareem Jackson in the first round, a move that was questioned by many analysts.

A better run game could also benefit the Texans who had trouble closing out games.  The Texans were tied or had the lead in the fourth quarter of four of their five divisional losses.  However, the 31st run game in DVOA was unable to help the Texans pull out victories.  Steve Slaton suffered through a miserable second year, forcing the Texans to take Ben Tate in the second round.  None of the Texans three primary backs averaged more than 3.9 yards per carry and they combined for 11 fumbles.

Of course, defensive and running deficiencies aside, the Texans STILL should have made the playoff except for a terrible year by kicker Chris Brown.  Brown hit just 65% of his kicks.  He missed kicks by quantity and quality, blowing a game tying attempt in Indianapolis and missing two critical kicks a week later on Monday Night Football at home against the Titans.  Brown's struggles led the Texans to bring in Neil Rackers to compete for a starting job.

Outlook:

The Texans were a playoff caliber team last year, but still seemed unready somehow.  Their inability to run and stop the pass led them to surrender some big leads, and their lack of clutch kicking ultimately doomed them.  The Texans don't have to improve dramatically to be a playoff team.  If they get even marginally better in any of those three areas, they'll likely win 10 games.

There is one major caveat, however.  Matt Schaub has to stay healthy.  It was something he achieved in 2009, but hadn't managed to do in any of his previous seasons.  A healthy Schaub paired with Andre Johnson will put fear in the heart of any team.  I look for the Texans to go .500 in the division this year and win 11 games.  They won't take the division from Indianapolis, but I think they'll improve just enough to finally make the playoffs.

Day two of my look at the AFC South heads down I-65 to Nashville for a look at the Colts' biggest division rivals: The Tennessee Titans.  The Titans, the only other club to ever win the AFC South, are the anti-Jaguars.  The two teams seem similar, but the Titans have a crafty coach capable of drawing the most out of a mediocre roster while the Jags have a guy capable of drawing the worst out of a solid roster.

Last year, the Titans jumped the rails early, benched Kerry Collins and turned to Vince Young.  They caught fire, winning 8 of their last 10 games.  In the process Super Back Chris Johnson ripped off a remarkable 2,000 yard campaign.  The Titans are a talented team and bear watching as the season unfolds.  The Colts don't play them at all until December, so by the team the two teams match up, we should have a better feel for which Titans team will show in 2010.

The popular narrative for the Titans is that Vince Young sparked their rise from 0-6 to 8-8.  I've already pointed out that this isn't completely true. Young played better than Collins, but there was no 'night and day' difference.

Young played better than Collins did, no question, but neither did he play so dramatically better as to account for all the improvement in the Titans.  2010 was by far Young's best season in terms of interception %, sack %, YPA, and rating.  In other words, though his completion % was down, he clearly took a step forward as a quarterback.  How far the Titans can go in 2011 depends entirely on Young.  If he progress even further, he'll be a good NFL quarterback.  If he stays at this level, he'll be an average one.  If he regresses at all, he'll find himself back on the bench so as to give Kerry Collins a shot at 100 career losses.  The Titans need to protect the football.  They posted 23 turnovers in 8 losses verses 10 in their 8 wins.

While Young holds the key to the Titans season, Chris Johnson will certainly get his share of publicity as well.  Johnson toted the rock more than 400 times in 2010.  He needs to stay healthy if the Titans hope to contend in 2011.  He also needs to cut down on his boom/bust runs, as he ranked just 32nd in the league in FOs "Success Rate".

The Titans clearly want to mimic their success from early in the decade when they rode a bruising run game, a great defense, and steady quarterbacking to a title.  On defense, the Titans have gone backwards the past two years losing Haynesworth and Vanden Bosch, but caught a major break in the draft when highly touted end Derrick Morgan fell to them in the middle of the first round. The Titans need to bring pressure to force turnovers.  In their 8 wins last year they forced 18 turnovers.  In their 8 losses they forced 9.

Outlook:

The Titans are the great wild card in the division.  They are clearly talented, and finished strong, winning 8 of 10 games and only losing to San Diego and Indy.  While I expect more stability from the Titans on defense, the question will be can Vince Young take the next step in his evolution.  In many ways, Young is similar to his idol Steve McNair in quarterback skills at this stage of his career.

The good news for Titans fans is that the next season, McNair helped lead the Titans to a Super Bowl (despite stats worse than in 2008).  Four of the next five years, the Titans posted a winning record under Steve McNair.

If Young becomes the kind of leader and player McNair was, the Titans could be a threat in 2010.  Jeff Fisher will have his team playing fundamentally sound football.  All VY has to do is not screw it up.

The Titans could go either way in 2010.  Though I'm not a believer in Young at all, I do allow that his play did improve last year.  If it improves again, look for the Titans to win double digit games.

The next three days, I'll be looking at the Colts division rivals and assess their chances to unseat Indianapolis next season.  First up, the Jaguars.

It's been a hilarious offseason in Jacksonville.  The Jags have struggled to sell tickets.  They've faced minor revolts over their decision to ignore Tim Tebow.  They got ripped for having the worst draft in the NFL.  Their quarterback has been publicly chastised by both the owner and head coach on the grounds that he just doesn't play well enough.

A look through the numbers reveals that the Jags were a deeply flawed team in 2009 despite inexplicably hanging around the playoff race for most of the year.  The Jags finished 7-9 which is a respectable record for a last place team.  However, a look at their Pythagorean wins shows that they were really more of a 5 or 6 win team.  They lost their final four games on the season and had only one win by more than 5 points all season.  They split their division games (beating Houston twice).

The Jags, conforming to Jack Del Rio's personality, are trying to rebuild as a defense first/running team.  Apparently, they didn't get the memo that the NFL doesn't really work like that any more.  What's particularly odd about their decision is that this strategy doesn't play to the talent the team already has on the roster.

Defensively in 2009, the Jags were a mess.  According to DVOA, they were 28th in the league on defense and 30th against the pass.  Their real weakness was a lack of pressure on the quarterback.  Their 14 sacks were 8 fewer than the next worst team in football.  To combat this problem, the Jags loaded up their defensive line in the draft.  Their first four picks were defensive linemen, including the controversial pick of Tyson Alualu.  The hope is that by getting more pressure on the quarterback, the Jags can hide their awful secondary.

Will the strategy pay off?  Most likely, it won't help them this year.  In the past 20 years, there have only been 19 rookies that posted double digit sacks. Even if we allow that the Jags managed to draft one of them and that this immediately increases their sack total by 10, the Jags would still rank in the bottom 2 or 3 teams in the league in total sacks.  In other words, if Jacksonville's only problem was defensive line, and if they managed to hit on one of the great rookie rushers of the past 20 years, they still wouldn't be very good at pressuring the quarterback as a whole.

Offensively, the Jags were merely bad, but not horrible.  David Garrard was the definition of average.  Given how terrible his pass protection was (28th in the league in sack %), it's amazing that Garrard was taken to task so heavily by his coach and owner.  Garrard is what he is:  an average NFL quarterback.  It's hard to understand why anyone would expect him to be more than that. The Jags play for improving their pass offense this offseason was to release Torry Holt and criticize their quarterback.

Their run game was solid behind Maurice Jones Drew.  However, his carries spiked last year from fewer than 200 each of his first three seasons to more than 300 (plus 53 catches) last season.  While that's not an exorbitant amount of touches, it is far more than he has had in any other season.  Should he suffer any kind of injury, the Jaguars will have to depend on the unproven Rashad Jennings.

OUTLOOK:

No team in football is under the kind of pressure the Jags are under.  Every game in Jacksonville becomes a referendum on whether the city can support an NFL team.  The players and the fans all know this.  Moreover, Jack Del Rio has been questioned by owner Wayne Weaver over his treatment of people.  Jacksonville is a powder keg that could easily turn into the biggest disaster in the NFL.  If there is a team with a respectable 2009 record that could easily turn into a 3 win team, the Jags have to be considered a candidate.

Do they have more talent than they did 2009?  It's possible.  If they had a good draft, they could potentially see results in two or three seasons.  However, if their rookies struggle even a normal amount, fan out rage might well bury the season.  The Jaguars need some early season victories to keep the sharks at bay. Given that they play San Diego and Indianapolis in their first four games, it seems unlikely that they will be any better than 2-2, and more probably 1-3 at the quarter pole.  That might be enough to send the entire season cascading into oblivion.

The Jacksonville Jaguars were a 5 win team on paper last year.  I can't see them being any better than that in 2010.  They have a questionable strategy being implemented by a questionable coach in a hostile environment.

The 2010 Jaguars: set the dumpster ablaze.

I don't do things like this too often, but I want to call all of your attention to a new blog by my wife.

Mommy blogs don't get much play on football sites, but this one has a different bent.  My wife Deb has started a compendium of short stories to tell kids called Tell Me a Story, Mommy.  Her hope is that it will develop into a sort of writing community designed for people with kids to come up with and share stories.

If you have kids and are always wracking your brain for bed time tales, this is a great place to find inspiration or share the ones you already have. Deb shares all kinds of stories from rewritten classics, serial adventures, and even a few true stories.  There are stories for little girls and stories for little boys.

If you don't have kids and are curious about what kind of warped mind would marry me, may I suggest this story to start.  If nothing else, just read the sidebar descriptions of herself and her writing.

The stories are usually humorous, often inspiring and occasionally just plain beautiful.

My wife is a crazy talented woman, but you don't have to take my word for it.  Drop on by and find out for yourself.

There's been a lot of idle chatter about Anthony Gonzalez's return from a PCL injury lately.  None of it has been based on anything other than conjecture.  Let's take a look how other WRs have come back from similar injuries.  Part of the problem is that this kind of injury is extremely rare.  Most wideouts go down with ACL injuries.  I could only find three receivers with PCL injuries.  I can't confirm how similar their precise injuries were to those of Anthony Gonzalez.  PCL injuries are not considered nearly as severe in the long run as ACL injures.

Roy Williams 2007

Williams went down with a PCL late in 2007 after putting up 64/838/5 in 12 games.  In 2008, he played for the worst team in history before a midseason trade sent him to Dallas.  His combined numbers were 34/430/2.  His YPC in 2007 was 13.1 yards per catch.  In 2008 with Detroit that number fell to just 11.9, but rebounded to 13.6 with Dallas.

James Jones 2008

Jones had 47 catches for 676 yards and two scores his rookie year (with Brett Favre).  He suffered his PCL injury late in his second season (2008) after posting 20 catches for a 13.7 YPC average.  He came back in 2009 and posted 32 catches for 440 yards (13.8 YPC) and 5 TDs.  His numbers the year after PCL surgery were slightly better than the year he suffered the injury.

Sidney Rice 2008

Rice battled a nagging PCL injury in 2008, but I can't confirm that he had surgery.  Surgery is rare in PCL cases, and often doctors prefer to let it heal on its own.  His YPC dropped from 12.8 to 9.4 from 2007 to 2008.  Last year (with Favre) it spiked to 15.8 YPC.

Willis McGahee (Fiesta Bowl 2003)

McGahee blew a PCL late in the Fiesta Bowl in January 2003.  He was drafted, but missed his entire rookie season.  He came back in 2004 and rushed for 1128 yards, 13 TDs, and a 4.0 YPC.

Reggie Bush 2007

Bush missed the end of the 2007 season with a PCL injury.  In 2008, he saw his yard per carry, yards per reception, and punt return yardage all increase dramatically.  He returned 3 punts for scores in 2008.

Prognosis for Anthony Gonzalez

Most signs point to full recovery of prior skills for players with PCL injuries.  The best news for Gonzo is that he already missed a full year.  There is every reason to expect him to come back at 100% of the player he was before, certainly by the end of the season if not right away.  There are not nearly as many good studies done on PCL injuries like Gonzo's because they are not at all common.  Full recovery for a normal person from a normal surgery can take from 1-2 years, but it seems that football players tend to be ok the season following the injury.  It's hard to compare any of these players to Gonzo, because other than Bush, the other four all experienced serious changes to their offense that make it difficult to measure their stats.