Those of you who are the 'mark the calandar' kind of folk, may have noticed that my book Blue Blood was supposed to debut today.

Sorry, you'll have to give it a few more days.  At this point, I'm hoping for Monday (with my fingers crossed).  It might be another week from now though.  Don't worry, it's still coming, and we'll have it out sooner rather than later, but it takes a few days for the online retailers to have the book show up in their systems.  There is a Kindle edition listed on Amazon, but it is NOT the final, approved version, so don't get ahead of yourself.  I don't even know if you can actually download it, or if it is just listed.  Either way, hold off.

I know this is annoying, so as a peace offering, I'll offer you all a first glimpse at the book.  Actually, it's just the table of contents.  Thrilling, I know, but I hope it wets your appetites...

Table of Contents
The Kickoff………………………………………………….………7
Chapter One: 1984-1986 C.O.L.T.S………………………………...10
Chapter Two: 1987-1989 The Big Deal……………………………..23
Chapter Three: 1990-1993 You Can’t Go Home Again……………..37
Chapter Four: 1994-1997 Captain Comeback and the Cardiac
Colts………………………………………………………………..50
The Second Quarter………………………………………………...66
Chapter Five: 1998-2001 So Good, So Soon……………………..…68
The Third Quarter………………………………………………….85
Chapter Six: 2002-2005 Dungy Ball……………………………..…..87
The Fourth Quarter…………………………………………….…105

Chapter Seven: 2006-2008 Blue Reign……………………………..107

Chapter Eight:  Unfinished Business..................................................126
Overtime………………………………………………………….145
Appendix A: Regular Season Indianapolis Colts Records…………..147
Appendix B: Games We’ll Never Forget…………………………..151
About the Author…………………………………………....…….188
Works Cited…………………………………………….…………188

Sorry for the long delay from my last article. I needed some time off to focus on finals and my MCAT. I’m happy to be back and will be contributing weekly for the rest of the summer and into football season. Today, I’m continuing with the second part of a four part series that looks at how the Colts evaluate talent based off of measurable statistics, known as metrics, as well as information such as conference and academic success. The goal of this series is figure out what kind of players the Colts want in each round of the draft. If successful at cracking the Colts code, we can then target and attempt to accurately project players that the Colts will draft in 2011 and beyond.

Through this research, I noticed some distinct patterns for three different groups: 1^st and 2^nd rounders, 3^rd and 4^th rounders, and 5^th, 6^th and 7^th rounders. Today, I will focus on the 3^rd and 4^th round selections from 2005-2010.

In the last 6 drafts, the Colts have selected 14 players in the 3^rd and 4^th rounds. Out of those 14, 13 were seniors in college when drafted. All 14 had at least four years in college. 13 out of 14 graduated by the year they were drafted. Only 3 of the 14 selections came from a non-BCS conference. One, Clint Session, was team captain.

Like the 1^st and 2^nd round selections, height does not seem to matter. This is especially evident in the linebackers, where the Colts selected both 5’10 Clint Session and 6’2 Philip Wheeler. Again, speed is crucial to the Colts. 11 of the 3^rd and 4^th round selections had at least near elite straight-line speed for their position, as indicated by forty times. Lateral agility is also a necessity. Out of those who ran the 20-yard short shuttle, only Dante Hughes posted a poor time.

Instead of posting the statistics for each pick under production, I chose to rate it on a 1 to 5 scale, with 1 being poor, 2 being below average, 3 being average, 4 being above average and 5 being elite. In order to determine what category each player fit into, I compared his stats to those of his teammates and college football as a whole for the year he was drafted. Unlike the 1^st and 2^nd rounders, the Colts seem to be more flexible with production of these later picks. 5 of the 14 had only average production. However, it is clear that the Colts still highly value production, with 6 of the 14 3^rd and 4^th rounders either being All-Americans or number one at their position in their final year.

So what can we learn from these metrics? More importantly, how do the Colts separate 3^rd and 4^th round prospects from 1^st and 2^nd round ones? These new statistics only reinforce one of the definite conclusions from the previous profile; a degree is mandatory for success as a Colt. The only player who did not graduate, Vincent “Sweatpea” Burns, never saw the field. This only makes it more evident that the dedication it takes to graduate from college while playing football at an elite level is the dedication it takes to be successful in the NFL. Straight-line speed does not seem as highly valued as in the previous rounds. Other than Marlin Jackson, every Colts' 1^st and 2^nd round pick had near elite or elite speed for his position. Jackson’s was still above average. However, in these later rounds, the Colts were willing to select 3 players, Collie, Hughes, and Gandy, with average speed. Leadership does not seem to be as important in the 3^rd and 4^th round. Only one player was a team captain, compared to nearly half of the 1^st and 2^nd rounders This could also be because team captains are usually the best players on their team, and therefore not readily available by the end of the 3^rd. The Colts are also more willing to select from non-BCS conferences in the middle rounds of the draft.

Only one player doesn’t seem to fit the general mold of a Colt. Most Colts have either near elite straight-line speed or lateral agility. Many have both. Dante Hughes, on the other hand, is terrible in both. At his combine, Hughes had the worst forty time and vertical jump at his position. Furthermore, he was in the lower half for every other measurable statistic at the combine for cornerbacks. Why then did the Colts select a player that deviates so much from the prototypical Colt? The answer lies in his production and tape. As a senior, Hughes was the Pac-10 Defensive Player-of-the-Year and consensus first team All American. Obviously, the Colts ultimately rate players based off of a combination of production and metrics. For the 1^st and 2^nd rounders, they should have all three. However, as shown by Hughes, both are not necessary for the 3^rd and 4^th round selections. If a player excels in one of these categories, like Hughes with production, the Colts are willing to overlook the other and take that player somewhere in the 3^rd and 4^th. In Hughes case, the Colts ignored his lack of athleticism. While this did not end up working out as expected, it shows that the Colts are willing to deviate from their overall draft philosophy when they think they’ve found a special player.

Please feel free to comment, argue, and elaborate on this profile. Also, if you have a request for a draft related article, post it in the comments.

I'm glad that we beat Autstalia 3-1.  I am.  A victory is always a good thing, but any care that I had about the outcome of the match was far outweighed by apprehension that we were going to end up losing somebody important to a last minute injury.  Big name players have been dropping like flies the past couple of weeks.  Before the game started, I was sort of concerned.  After I started watching and realized that the pitch they were playing on was basically a giant sandbox with a thin layer of sod on top of it, I was ready to start chewing off my finger nails.  Fortunately, no one on either team ended up being stretchered off the field.  DaMarcus Beasley came the closest when it looked like his foot caught on the turf as he went down and his knee flexed awkwardly, but he was able to get back up and run it off.  Ricardo Clark also looks like he could have picked up a hamstring injury, but no information has been released after a full day so I doubt it was anything serious.

Let me reiterate, the field was atrocious.  It was coming up in clumps every time someone went in for a slide tackle.  By the end of the game there were so many divots that it looked like spots of weird pixelated distortion all over the place.  There were so many scuffed passes that it was hard to tell if someone was sucking or if they were just getting their cleats caught in the pitch.  I'm not going to mention it in the rest of this post, but the statement "it may have been because they were playing on something resembling a table-cloth covered sandbox" could be tacked on to any criticism that I give.  How you end up playing on a field like that in the lead up to a the biggest sporting event in the world I do not know.

Forwards

Buddle finished two really great chances and looked confident like he did when he was playing with LA early in the MLS season.  He scored nine goals in nine league games and assisted on two more before leaving to join the national team.  Confidence is uber-important for a striker and this should hopefully be the boost that he needs.  I'm anticipating that Bradley is going to start Findley against England for his speed, but Buddle is making himself a viable option if Altidore isn't fully recovered from his ankle injury.

Robbie Findley didn't score, but he did just about everything else right.  His pressure on Aussie defender Craig Moore caused the turn over that Buddle scored our first goal off of.  He beat the Aussie defense to through balls time and again and (most of the time) he made the smart play to hold the ball up and dish it off instead of rushing a bad shot.  That said, Findley missed two chances that he absolutely should have scored on.  These weren't just decent chances where he could have done better.  One was a WIDE open goal after he beat the keeper and he hit the ball hard and off target when he should have just tapped it in.  The other was a pretty brutal shot off the cross bar when there was no reason for the ball to have been struck anywhere near the crossbar.  Findley should be able to walk on the pitch confident of everything else he's doing in the game, but where it counts most he still hasn't capitalized.  That's gotta be pretty frustrating for both him and the coaching staff.

Herculez Gomez came off the bench again and scored, this time with a nice side footed shot off of a well placed pass by Landon Donovan.  He looked good in the rest of his play, making smart passes and harassing the Aussie backline.  The ability to come off the bench and score is sometimes more important than the ability to put in a solid 90 minutes.  That should pretty much assure that Gomez won't be starting against England, but will see time on the field none the less.

Midfielders

Unless Ricardo Clark really did hurt himself on Saturday, then I'm guessing that Bradley is planning on starting him and his son against England.  Clark and Michael Bradley both played the full 90 minutes against Australia.  It doesn't make much sense to me that you would partner up Clark for 90 minutes with Bradley if you were intending on not starting him on June 12th.  Honestly, I'd like to see either Edu or Torres starting instead.  I think that Edu has the athleticism to stand up to a tough England midfield and Torres has better skills holding and distributing the ball to gain us some needed possession.  Clark would be my third choice, but he can be dependable on his day against top class opposition.  Against Australia he as pretty invisible, inspiring neither a lot of criticism nor praise.  He can't play that way against England, though.

Michael Bradley was his typical, reliable self.  Not too much else to say.  He broke up attacks like he always does.  He covered well when others were out of position.  And he got forward occaisionally and only a great reaction save by Mark Schwarzer is all that kept him off the score sheet.

Dempsey looked good for the whole 90 minutes; a pretty great showing.  Bradley started him of the left and he played from there the whole game.  Australia had a hard time containing him.  He came very close to scoring.  He had a great shot off a break away that Schwarzer made a clutch save on and had a beautiful diving header goal called back (wrongfully) for being offsides.  He seemed to be the target of a disproportionate number of tackles by the Aussies.

Donovan was industrious, to say the least.  He had a great assist on Gomez's goal and setup several other clear cut chances.  Instead of saying more about his game, check out this very Donovan-centric game review from Henry Winter of the British Telegraph.

Beasley came on for the last 15 minutes of the game.  He had good speed up and down the wing, but didn't really get involved enough to say much about.

Defense

Our central defense looked very suspect on set pieces, corners and crosses.  They failed to clear the ball properly or just flat out missed it way too many times.  In general, our marking on set pieces was terrible.  England has got to be salivating over the thought of Rooney, Crouch, and Gerrard crashing the goal while Lampard whips in a cross.  If we defend them like we did Australia they'll destroy us.  Bradley had better be working hard on getting us more organized on dead ball situations.

DeMerit and Goodson started in the center.  Onyewu replaced Goodson at about 60 minutes.  Aside from the abject failure to defend balls that were in the air, Goodson and DeMerit did a decent job.  Onyewu coming on in the 60th minute was troubling for two reasons.  One, he's played a decreased amount of time in each of the last three friendlies.  This is raising some big questions about his fitness, as you would think that his playing time would increase if he were getting back in shape.  Two, he still looked awkward and lacking in confidence.  There weren't any big defensive breakdowns, but he was no where near as assertive as he should be if he's going to be a starting option next weekend.  I will say that he still looked good with the ball at his feet, maneuvering out of traffic when the opportunity presented to make a smart pass instead of just booting the ball forward.

Bocanegra and Cherundolo looked pretty good on the wings, with Bocanegra looking typically solid and having fewer defensive lapses than Cherundolo, who got forward with the ball more.  Cherundolo's run past Australia's Bresciano and cross to Buddle for our second goal were very nice and his short passing game continues to impress, although he didn't look quite as flashy as he did against Turkey.  He'll need to reign himself in a little against England seeing as he'll likely be lining up against Stevie Gerrard.

Bocanegra was replaced by Bornstein in the 55th minute and, while he didn't look terrible, he's still a big step down from either Bocanegra or Spector.  If this is who we start at fullback against England and we are looking to replace Bocanegra late in the game, I really hope that we are looking to Spector.

In Goal

Tim Howard played the first half and Marcus Hahnemann replaced him for the second.  Howard did what he normally does: he looked confident, made some good saves, and screamed like a mad-man whenever the defense broke down.  Hahnemann made a couple of good saves (one very good), but looked less than confident when he came out to punch away the ball and had trouble reading crosses.  The sun was very low and in his eyes, but that's a less than satisfying excuse if you let in an easy goal.  I think he's still got the number two spot ahead of Guzan locked up, but he needs to do better.

Here's the match highlights.

When I was in 8th grade, I made my middle school baseball team.  The week before the first game, I had to miss a practice to attend a National Junior Honors Society function.  I told my coach about it ahead of time, and he gave me permission to go.  However, come opening day, I wasn't in the starting line up.  Instead he started a scrawny 7th grader.  His reasoning was that only players who attended every practice could start.

We lost 35-1.

I pinch hit and got our only hit.

Obviously, had I started we would have won that game.  I mean, weak armed second baseman have a way of cutting 10-15 runs off a final score.  And I'm sure that had I had a second at bat, it would have made my first hit (a 20 foot ground ball that got stuck in the mud in front of the mound) look weak.  While I couldn't have changed the outcome by starting, the attitude of my coach was so bizarre and unfair, that it soured me on the season.  I quit the team three games later.  It's just about the only thing I've ever quit on in my life.  The best players should play.  Nothing else makes sense.

I bring up this story because it has direct bearing on the Mathis and Wayne situation. Some fans would like to see both players punished for their holdouts beyond just fines.  There are those who have implied that if the Colts really had 'open competition' for jobs, that Mathis and Wayne would be riding the pine come September.  Such thinking couldn't be more destructive or more erroneous.

First, let's address the issue of "open competition".  What it means is that the best players play come Sundays in the fall.  It doesn't matter what a guy's resume is, if there is another player who is better he starts.  What it also means is that it doesn't matter who practices more.  It doesn't matter who toed the line with the organization.  The only thing that matters is who can make the plays on Sundays.  If you are selecting your starting lineup based on ANYTHING other than what players will produce the best outcome, then you are doing a massive disservice to your fans.  Reggie Wayne and Robert Mathis will start (as much as Mathis ever 'starts'...he typically hasn't started much) because they are the best players at their positions.

What missing camp means for them is basically that they are taking a chance that some other player will jump up and take their job.  Could it happen?  Absolutely. If the coaches determine that Collie/Garcon/Gonzo are better than 87, then Wayne won't see the field.  Missing practice opens that door, but it does not automatically push other players through it.  The same thing goes for Mathis.  If Jerry Hughes starts ripping through quarterbacks, then he'll play.  Mathis missing some camp time might leave the door open for Hughes to show the coaches something, but it absolutely should not be a guarantee of anything.

Fans tend to think of these camps and practices as much more important to veterans than they really are.  This same issue comes up with Bob Sanders.  There are those that think that a player like Sanders missing practice or camp time due to injury is a big deal.  It isn't.  Bob Sanders has always practiced less than other players.  Why?  Because come Sundays, he's one of the best safeties in football.  It's not that practice doesn't matter at all, but for the most elite players it simply isn't that important.

There's another issue at work here, and that's the issue of punishment.  Just like my middle school coach wanted to make a statement that baseball practice has to be more important than anything else, fans want players punished who hold out.  There are punishments built into the system.  Mathis and Wayne will be fined for missing camp time.  However, when a team punishes a player for a legitimate negotiation tactic, it risks alienating the entire locker room.  Rule by fear is not an effective way to manage grown men, many of whom are millionaires.  Were the Colts to crack down hard on Mathis and Wayne, they would show that the organization is unreasonable and doesn't care about the players.  The tenor of both Wayne's and Polian's statements on the matter shows that everyone is maintaining the right attitude.  This isn't personal. It's just business.  There's no need to "show anyone who's boss".  There have been no recriminations or even condescending statements of 'disappointment' from the team.

Punishing the players with benchings just for missing some not overly meaningful spring practices would only punish the rest of the team and the fans.  We need our best players on the field as much as possible.  Barring some insanely unforeseen leaps in productivity from a few guys, there's just no way that Mathis and Wayne aren't among the best 22 players on the team.

Open competition. It means the best players play.

Not the players who attend the most practices.

It's the only way to run a team.

Last night, my wife and I celebrated our 11th wedding anniversary.  In the process, we realized something disturbing about ourselves:

We have become hobos.

The gradual transformation from educated, professional people to train hopping, handkerchief on a stick toting vagrants came on without warning.

I had secured tickets to go to the opera.  The Colon Theater in Buenos Aires is a world famous opera house.  I'm not huge opera fan, but once or twice a decade I can handle it.  The Colon is a spectacular place to go, and we had not been in seven years.  We figured it would be fun to leave the kids with friends, dress up a little, experience high culture, and spend the night downtown.

My first clue that something was wrong came when I examined my closet for appropriate clothing.  You have to understand that I work with extremely impoverished people, and never wear anything but T-shirts and jeans.  I have no cause to wear nicer clothes.  I do have a suit, but that was back in States.  So when I opened the 'nice' side of closet, I found the following:

• 3 Ties.  One was emblazoned with the logo of the Indiana Pacers.  Classy.

• 1 grey collared shirt with white stripes.

• 1 pair of khaki pants.  They were one size too small.

Ouch.  For the first time in 33 years, it occured to me to bother being ashamed of my 'wardrobe'.  Three ties.  None of which went with the one bizarre collared shirt I owned.  I did manage to dig out a second pair of khakis that fit.  Technically, anyway.  They were actually too long, and I had once ripped part of the cuff by stepping on it.  It was sewed up pretty well though, so no one would notice.  Hobo-tacular.

We had a second problem.  All our overnight bags were at our team office because our house is too small.  So, Deb packed our 'nice' clothes into a plastic bag, and we headed off to retrieve our luggage.  Once we finally made it downtown, we had to park several blocks from the hotel.  So we toted a paisley coated suitcase down the city streets to the lobby.  The hotel had lost our reservation (stupid Internet discount site), threatened to kick us out, but eventually found us a room.  I think they were embarrassed to have us in the lobby.  Hobo-mania.

When we finally spruced ourselves up and made it to the opera, we had standing room only seats.  Seriously, you can't give real seats to hobos.  They smell way too bad.  Fittingly, we watched the first two acts of La Boheme (which felt oddly autobiographical), before I couldn't take it any more.  I was sore from soccer, and my back seized up from leaning on the railing for two hours.  Hobos aren't used to standing.  Typically, we recline against an old stump in front of a camp fire.

So, we slinked out at intermission and headed for dinner.  Though we were tempted to find a can of cold beans and an old ham-bone to gnaw on, we actually had a nice meal and thoroughly enjoyed our night.  At one point we did consider going to see the new Robin Hood movie, but figured we could not bear the shame of walking out of La Boheme to see a Russel Crowe flick.

Even hobos have some pride.

All this was a long winded introduction to say that I'm a little late putting up mini-camp links.  I'll get right on that.

By the way, anyone who goes to the free minicamp today and wants to post pictures and commentary is welcome to send it in.

Now if you'll excuse me I have to rage incoherently at a stray dog who is poking around at my handkerchief and stick.

Archimedes knew that if you wanted to get things done, you needed more than will power.  You needed some serious leverage.  The news that Reggie Wayne is skipping the mandatory mini-camp has us all a tizzy these days, largely because there is a serious lack of real NFL news to occupy us. The real issue isn't even that Wayne is on hold-out watch, but that Bethea and Mathis will be missing the mini-camp as well.  All three situations are different, but they share a common cause.  The CBA is wheezing its last gasps and everyone is preparing for a work stoppage.  I know nothing about the personal finances of the three players involved, but I do know that most NFL players are living nearly paycheck to paycheck.  Before I break down the specifics of each case (and they are quite different), let me make one thing clear:

Each player is doing the right thing.  Every one of you would do the exact same thing in their shoes.

First, let's not whine about the sanctity of a contract.  NFL teams can void those contracts at any moment.  I see no reason why fans should demand that the players 'play out' their existing contracts while celebrating the fact that the Colts could cut Corey Simon for a bout of Jabba the Hutt Syndrome.

Imagine for a second that you had a job that you loved. Imagine that in a year, you knew your boss was going to force you take unpaid leave.  Now, also imagine that you were really important to the company, your boss couldn't fire you, and there would be little consequence to going and asking for a raise in advance of your forced leave.

I'm sorry, but every one of you would go to your boss and ask for the money.  If you were important enough to the company to have your job secured, you might even skip a mandatory road trip to that boring conference everyone hates.  Maybe you call in sick before some meeting with corporate.  You aren't exactly bringing the company to its knees or anything, but it's enough to irritate your boss and let him know that you are serious about wanting that raise.

Most of us don't behave that way because we lack the kind of job security that would let us get away with it.  But keep in mind that in this fantasy scenario, ownership is the one posturing to force you take unpaid leave, during which you won't really be able to take another job, but you won't get paid either.  In the meantime, you'll have to stay on top of all the latest journals and literature about your job, so you are ready when they finally let you go back to work.

You'd be bitter, frustrated, and do whatever you could to try and take care of your family.  That's what Wayne, Mathis, and Bethea are all doing in slightly different ways.

We've been blessed in Colts' country not to witness a serious hold out in almost 20 years. I've been racking my brain to come up with a non-draft related holdout (Bob Sanders, Edge James, and even Peyton had holdouts after the draft).  There was the mysterious case of the misplaced Corey Simon (do yourself a favor and follow that classic link.  Remember when I had a brother?  Yeah, me neither), but I'm not sure that really counted.  Marshall Faulk threatened to hold out following the '98 season and Bill Polian quickly sent him packing.  That set the tone for future Colts' camps.  After deeply acrimonious holdouts by Eric Dickerson and Jeff George (insert plug for Blue Blood here.  See kids?  Knowing your history helps!), the team has shown precious little patience with such nonsense.

What really worries us as fans is the "Disease of Me". Let's face it, deep down, we don't really care if Bethea, Wayne or Mathis gets paid.  We root for them.  It's all good.  However, the fear is that this kind acrimony distracts the team and the younger players from a single minded focus on winning.  Are all the oars really pulling in the same direction if guys are worrying about their contracts and not the 2010 season.  Personally, I think the deteriorating CBA situation provides some cover here.  Everyone knows this isn't happening in a vacuum.  These guys aren't randomly deciding it's time to get paid.  Everyone understands what is at stake, and the players want to see their teammates get as much green as possible (as I've explained before).

In truth, all three players are making similar plays for very different reasons. First, let's consider Bethea. He ought to be an unrestricted free agent.  He would have already scored a big deal or gotten tagged for way more money than the team is offering him now.  He's an elite level player at a position where most guys are done by 29.  Bethea has been offered a tender.  He would be insane to sign it at this point.  He doesn't have to sign it yet, and technically is not doing anything wrong by missing mini-camp.  He is not under contract and doesn't have to show.  He should hold out as long as the rules allow him to.

Ultimately, he has little choice.  Eventually, he'll have to sign and play for peanuts or not play.  The only leverage he has is to not sign and try to force the team to negotiate.  The popular choice for fans these days is to call for Bethea to get a long term contract.  Frankly, I see no reason why the team should.  Safety is an important position, but the shelf life for NFL safeties is short.  Bethea has to play a game of chicken with the Colts because he knows that if doesn't get big money this year, he may NEVER get it.  He's about to turn 26.  He'll be 27 for the 2011 season. If that season never comes, he could be 28 before finally getting to free agency.  He's inching toward that magic age.  His holdout is the most understandable.  He's never made the big money.  He didn't have a big rookie deal.  He's already been screwed by the whole 'capless year' deal which took away his free agency.  He's scratching and clawing for a long term deal, but I'm not sure it's coming. The team has no incentive to give him one.

Now, let's look at Reggie Wayne.  Reggie is doing the smart thing by holding out, for all the good it will do him.  He has two years left on a reasonably priced deal.  At the end of it, he'll be 33 years old.  Do you think he's going to get another big pay day?  He certainly won't from the Colts who are stocked neck deep in young wideouts.  His only chance to score one more big payday is to hold out right now in an uncapped year.  It is his ONLY option.  It's easy to blame him for the Super Bowl loss and tell him to just play out his deal, but this is his last chance and he knows it.  He has to provide for his family first.  He's only being smart by grabbing whatever he can get while he can get it.

Unfortunately, he's screwed.  The team knows that if he holds out, he only hurts himself.  The Colts NEED more reps for the younger guys anyway.  You think they are losing sleep over the thought of what will happen if Manning doesn't get to work with him for a couple of weeks?  They've only hooked up like a thousand times.  I really don't think anyone is fretting over a few weeks without Wayne.  Reggie is making the smart play by keeping it civil, but again...he has no leverage at all.  The club will win this one.  Reggie won't be able to afford the fines he'll ring up by missing training camp.

Finally, Robert Mathis comes into play.  Mathis has the worst case from my perspective.  He got a CRAZY generous contract (at the time), which was front loaded and still has two more years.  He's still pretty young and plays a position that he can keep playing effectively deep into his 30s.  On top of everything else, he doesn't have leverage either.  The Colts just spent a first round pick on a guy who plays his position and is his clone.  Does anyone think the defense will be confused if Mathis misses some camp time?  What does he really have to do on every play, anyway?  "Hey, Rob...go get the quarterback.  Just run really fast and tackle him."  I think he'll be fine even if he misses a few workouts.  Of course, we don't know for sure he isn't showing up for camp, but no one will be surprised if he skips out Ironically, though Mathis has the worst case for a new deal, he's probably the only one of the three who the team might want to think about locking up.  He still has a lot of good years in front of him.

The best case for the Colts is that all three guys voice their displeasure, swallow their pride, and show up on time for training camp ready to work.  The worst case is basically just like the best case, only the guys eventually come back with sour attitudes and poison their teammates.  I see no reason to expect that to happen.  The tenor of Wayne's statement was respectful, and all three men are well respected.  None of this is really about the 'disease of me'.  It's about the insanity of the owners' posturing for labor war.

Right now, the team has all the leverage.  Eventually, the players will have to move.

Those two halves could have hardly been more different.  We were like Jekyl and Hyde out there.

The First Half

Aside from the first five minutes of the game, we had a pretty crappy first half.  If Turkey had been able to finish their chances, it could have easily been 3-0 instead of 1-0 at the end of the half.

Benny Feilhaber didn't give me any confidence that he can be trusted to contribute defensively as a winger.  He looks a lot better when he's deployed centrally.  He was initially deployed on the left against Turkey, but switched sides with Donovan after about thirty minutes. Feilhaber didn't look very comfortable playing on the wing.  There were times when it seemed like he was drifting in to the center a bit too much.  He had a handful of decent runs with the ball, but he was definitely not the creative spark that we needed.  With Edu, Clark, and now Torres all ahead of him for a starting central midfield role, it looks like he'll likely be a contributor off the bench.

Clint Dempsey had a pretty lackluster first half.  He was deployed up top and a withdrawn striker behind Jozy Altidore and looked, well, he looked pretty withdrawn.  For the first forty-five minutes his touch looked off, with several turnovers off of bad traps and miscontrolled balls.  Dempsey is better when he can receive the ball at a half-turn and then run at defenders.  His role in the first half looked more like he was playing the target man, receiving the ball with his back to the goal and trying to hold up the play.  I have heard a lot of call for Dempsey to start up top, but after seeing him start there against Turkey I have to disagree.  Keep him out on the wing.

The goal that Turkey scored should not have been.  The blame doesn't all lay at the feet of Jonathan Spector, though.  Someone should have been covering for him in the midfield.  I'm not sure if it should have been Ricardo Clark or Michael Bradley, but there was definitely a breakdown in our defensive coverage.  Spector made a fairly indecisive run at two defenders, got disposed, but then got caught ball watching and didn't recover as Turkey regained possession.  A pass was quickly played to a rushing Arda Turan who beat both a racing Spector and Jay DeMerit and put the ball past Tim Howard.  Add that lapse to the pretty lackluster night that Spector spent getting beat several times on the right side and one would have to think that he more than significantly hurt his chances to start against England.

The other disappointment was Ricardo Clark.  While he didn't look inept, he certainly looked over matched in the midfield.  I can't say that I wasn't that surprised.  Turkey was playing with a five man midfield, meaning that Clark and Bradley were playing counter to three Turkish midfielders.  Bradley held his own and was legitimately our best player of the half, but I don't think that Clark was ever going to shine against that formation.

Aside from Bradley looking solid, the other positive to take from the first half was DeMerit and Goodson playing well together.  They weren't the greatest centerback pairing that you could hope for, but they seemed to be in pretty good sync with one another and looked serviceable together.  I would rather that Onyewu be on the field instead of Goodson, but this gave me a more confidence in our alternative.

The Second Half

To start our the second half, Bob Bradley replaced Goodson with Onyewu, Clark with Torres, Spector with Cherundolo, and Feilhaber with Finldey.  Findley slid in up top next to Altidore and Dempsey dropped back into an attacking role on the left wing.

The changes to the line up made an immediate impact, with the primary driver of change being Jose Torres in the midfield.  Much has been said about Torres having tons of potential, but not really fitting well into Bob Bradley's system.  What ever wasn't fitting before fell into place against Turkey..  He was poised on the ball and didn't look phased by the active Turkish midfield that shutdown Clark in the first half.  Torres distribution to the offense was also top notch.  If Dempsey had gotten that kind of service in the first half, he may have been more affective up top.  I don't think that he'll get the start against England, Bradley will probably go with Edu for his athleticism, but Torres could easily start against Slovenia or Algeria after his great performance against Turkey.

Dempsey did look much better in the second half.  His goal was pretty classic, the same combination of grit and technique that we saw in his goal against Spain last year.  In general, he was more involved than he was in the first half, which I think was because of the change in position.

The biggest surprise of the second half was how well Robbie Findley played.  Maybe he felt like he had something to prove after being picked to get cut on just about every one's roster predictions.  His speed was apparent, but I was also impressed by both his work ethic and his ball control.  At one point, around the 51st minute, he tracked way back and brought down a Turkish player that was on a break away with a beautiful tackle.  The camera had a great shot of his face as he came in behind the guy; he was determined, not panicked in the least.  His sweet chip that sprung Donovan on our first goal was equally impressive.  I don't know if it was an impressive enough performance for him to get the nod to start against England, but if he's could guarantee a repeat then Bob Bradley would be crazy to turn him down.

Both of the halftime changes made to our back line were positive, although Onyewu wasn't tested like he was against the Czechs.  He looked typically solid and seemed to be playing with increased confidence.  Cherudolo showed why he should be our starting right back on June 12th.  He brought the pace and confidence that Spector was lacking in the first half.  He doesn't have the killer cross that Spector can deliver from the right side, but he linked up really well with Donovan and then Holden.  The build up that led to Dempsey's near-miss in the 87th minute was started by a great sequence between Cherundolo and Holden.  The late substitution of Jonathan Bornstein was a step down from Bocanegra, but that's not something that should surprise anyone.

All in all, the match proved valuable for seeing which players we should be starting on June 12th.  Some positions could still be in flux, but I think that Bradley is getting the answers that he needs.  Our final warm up game is in this Saturday against Australia.

Colts fans know that outside of Peyton Manning no player has had as much impact on the fortunes of the Colts in recent years as Dwight Freeney.  In many ways, he is actually underrated.  Outsiders see his sack totals but write him off as a one dimensional player and move on.  Colts fans know that Freeney plays the run just fine, but the Colts don't want him to.  Defending the run is not nearly as important as pressuring the quarterback.  Beyond that, his impact cannot be measured simply by sacks or even forced fumbles.  He also is always among the league leaders in quarterback pressures.

Let's leave all that aside for a moment.  Freeney's value to the Colts is extraordinary, but it will have to manifest itself in measurable ways.  That means sacks.

Of the top 10 all time eligible sack leaders, only six are in the Hall of Fame.

Here's who hasn't made it yet:

Kevin Greene (5 PB, 2 AP, 10 seasons of 10+ sacks, 160 total sacks, 23 FF, 0 SB)

Chris Doleman (8 PB, 2 AP, 8 seasons of 10+ sacks, 155 total sacks, 44 FF, 0 SB)

Richard Dent (4 PB, 1 AP, 8 seasons of 10+ sacks, 137.5 total, 37 FF, 1 SB)

Leslie O'Neal (6 PB, 0 AP, 8 seasons of 10+ sacks, 132.5 total, 21 FF, 0 SB)

Of those four, Doleman and Dent seem to have the best shot at enshrinement.  Dent has been a finalist already.  Green and O'Neal aren't viewed as being as 'elite' as Doleman and Dent.  O'Neal was never an All Pro, and Green was something of a third down specialist.

There are also several all-time sack leaders near the top who aren't yet eligible:

Michael Strahan (7 PB, 4 AP, 6 seasons of 10+ sacks, 141.5 total, 24 FF, 1 SB)

Jason Taylor (6 PB, 3 AP, 6 seasons of 10+ sacks, 127.5 total, 43 FF, 0 SB)

Both have strong resumes and will eventually be inducted.

What does 93 have to do?

Let's be honest.  If his resume doesn't reach the territory of the guys on this page, he has no chance.  Right now, his looks like this:

Dwight Freeney (5 PB, 3 AP, 6 seasons of 10+ sacks, 84 total, 35 FF, 1 SB)

First the good news:

Dwight Freeney has most of the 'quality' stats he needs.  All Pro nods mean more than Pro Bowls.  He has three already, which is more than everyone on this list but Strahan.  He has a Super Bowl ring, and no one on the list has more than one.  Super Bowl rings matter to Hall of Fame voters.  Now, you could argue that they shouldn't, but the fact is that they do.  Should the Colts win a second Super Bowl in the Freeney era, it will greatly help his case.  That ankle injury he suffered last January could come back to haunt all of us for years.  Freeney is in the ballpark in terms of forced fumbles as well.  One more high quality, All Pro-type season would more than cover Freeney in terms of 'peak' years.

The bad news:

Freeney still needs volume to his numbers.  84 total sacks is nice, but only 39th all time.  He'll pick up about 8 spots for every 10 sacks he collects until he hits the 120s.  Freeney needs 40 more sacks to get to 124, which would put him right on the line of consideration for the Hall of Fame.  Freeney just turned 30 years old, however.  He has 33 sacks in his last four seasons (half of one was lost to injury).  He essentially has to continue producing sacks at a comparable rate well into his mid 30s in order to have a strong shot at the Hall of Fame.

The good news is that most of the truly gifted, Hall of Fame DEs continued producing well into their 30s.  The next few years will tell the story for Dwight Freeney.  If he posts 3-4 more seasons of double digit sacks, he'll be on the cusp of Canton.  Freeney is far and away the youngest member of the top 40 all time in sacks.  He's got the quality.  Now all he needs is career longevity to make him a bonafide Hall of Famer.

We say it all the time:  Dwight Freeney is one of the three greatest Colts ever.

Robert Mathis should be in the Ring of Honor.

Just how much of an impact do those two players have on a football game?  The Footballoutisders have listed the most "pressures" in the league from last year.  A pressure is a hidden stat.  It doesn't show up as a sack, but can absolutely change a game.  Matt Schaub drops back to pass on third and 10.  He looks deep down field for Andre Johnson.  Instead of hurling a first down pass, he sees Freeney coming out of the corner of his eye.  He stops and hits his running back for a short three yard gain and a punt.  No sack.  No stat.  Maximum impact.

Hurries aren't as immediately effective as sacks, in that they don't end plays, but they do affect quarterback play. Last season, the average pass play yielded 6.2 yards and a mean DVOA (defense-adjusted value over average, FBO's per-play efficiency metric) of 13.6 percent. When the defense hurried the quarterback, the average pass play gained 5.0 yards and averaged a DVOA of minus-16.2 percent. There are those rare quarterbacks, like Aaron Rodgers, Donovan McNabb and Ben Roethlisberger, who produce well when under that kind of pressure, but the average stats tell the value of the hurry.

As it turns out, Freeney and Mathis are first and third in the NFL in pressures forced last year.

Freeney lead the NFL with 34 pressures.  Elvis Dumervil was second with 33.  Mathis was third with 30.

What is amazing about that stat is that neither player played 16 games last year.  Mathis and Freeney both appeared in only 14 games each, and in some of those games, they saw limited action (Jacksonville).

How important are Freeney and Mathis to what the Colts do?  They rank 3rd and 6th respectively in terms of highest percentage of total team hurries.  Freeney accounted for 29.3% of the Colts hurries in 2009.  Mathis racked up 25.9%.  That means that more than 55% of the time that a QB has to throw before he wants to against the Colts, Freeney or Mathis is responsible.  Oh, did I mention we drafted Jerry Hughes in the first round? If anyone has any lingering doubts as to how big a need a third pass rusher is for the Colts, they only have to look at these numbers.

It's easy for outsiders to mock the Colts for playoff failures, but considering that one of the two has been injured for three of the past five postseason losses, it makes sense why the Colts have struggled.  Of all the terrible things that happened to hurt the Colts in the Super Bowl this year, the biggest by far was when Dwight Freeney turned his ankle in the AFC Championship game.

Mathis and Freeney. More than just sacks.

Happy Race Day!

Blue Blood will be released on June 9th (assuming everything goes well this week).

Though I will be posting more information about it on the main page, 18to88.com now has its own official Blue Blood page.  You can access it any time by going to Bluebloodbook.com.  From there, you'll be able to find a number of ways to purchase the book as well as leave comments about it.

I'm also working on building a Facebook fan page for the book as well. Do me a favor and suggest it to everyone you know.

This is a very exciting time for me personally, and I hope for everyone who has contributed to make this site what it is.

Thanks everyone.  More details to come as I have them.