All off season long, we've been debating how good the Colts receiving corps is and how good Collie and Garcon are specifically. Well, the Football Outsiders have a thing or two to say about that.

In discussing their new "Plus/Minus" stat, they use the Colts to discuss the issue of team context in evaluating raw numbers.  Plus/Minus is an adjusted statistic that shows how many catches a player had over the average for the number of times he was thrown to at various distances.  FO has determined that Plus/Minus depends heavily on context because the quarterback throwing the pass plays a big part as to whether the passes were caught.

Today, they discuss the Colts specifically to see which receivers were actually good, and which ones were only good because Peyton Manning threw the passes.

The bad news for Collie and Garcon?  They weren't actually very good last year.  On a raw basis, Pierre Garcon had a raw +/- of 0.2.  In other words, he basically caught exactly the number of passes that an average receiver would have running the same routes.  However, when you adjust for the fact that Manning was throwing him the ball, Garcon's number plummets to -6.4, worst on the team.  That means that on the season:

Pierre Garcon is another excellent example of how context can make a player with below-average hands look good. Garcon's plus-minus was about league-average relative to the distance and nature of his routes, but once you factor in the context of his offense, he was actually pretty mediocre at catching the ball in 2009. That blends well with DVOA, which saw Reggie Wayne and Collie well ahead of Garcon a year ago.

Actually, the news for Collie isn't much better.  Collie had a +/- of 3.4 (three catches better than average).  However, once you account for Peyton, that number drops to -2.8, ahead of only Jacob Tamme and Garcon.  Of Collie they said,

There were 465 qualifying targets thrown to the remainder of the Colts' players. On those plays, the rest of the team accrued 33.7 catches above expectation. On a per-play basis, that's 0.07 catches above average; because that's higher than Collie's average, it means that Collie was worse than his teammates.

Subtract the difference and multiply it by Collie's 86 targets and you'll find that the tune of his numbers has changed. While Collie was catching passes at an above-average rate according to both catch rate and plus-minus, adjusting the figure for his team context produces a plus-minus figure of -2.8, a figure below what his Colts teammates were producing.

Now, not all the Colts suffer in this metric.  Reggie Wayne and Dallas Clark come out just fine.

Team-adjusted plus-minus tells a distinct story for the 2009 Colts -- Wayne and Dallas Clark caught a lot of passes at a well-above-average level, and everyone else was average or worse -- but the team's statistical signature isn't always so similar. In 2008, for example, Wayne's raw numbers declined, and his plus-minus figures were no different. He had a raw plus-minus of 10.4 on 124 targets; adjust that for the team rate, though, and he was only at 2.1. Anthony Gonzalez led the team, with a team-adjusted plus-minus of 4.4 catches above average on 77 targets.

In Wayne's dominant 2007 season, well, he was a one-man wrecking crew. His 18.3 raw plus-minus was met with mostly mediocre performances by the rest of the offense, producing a team-adjusted plus-minus of 16.7 that led the league. It's the second-best figure of the four-year stretch we have plus-minus available for, having been narrowly beaten out (16.74 catches above average to Wayne's 16.72) by a receiver in 2009. One of the main reasons why Wayne's figure is so high is because the only other Colts receiver with more than 50 qualifying targets that year was Dallas Clark, who had a raw plus-minus of -5.6 on 94 targets. After adjusting that for the team context, Clark was at a very disappointing figure of -9.5 catches, the worst figure in the league that year.

That all jives with what we know.  Clark had a bad thumb in 2007 and led the league in dropped passes, including the final damning drop of the season in the playoffs against the Chargers.

So, when it comes to evaluating 2009, Manning's performance with Collie and Garcon catching passes is truly remarkable.  Whereas by most metrics, Anthony Gonzalez has elite skills, Collie and Garcon were basically "just guys" in 2009.  Now, they could conceivably keep improving, and in the case of Garcon I consider that likely or at least possible.  However, there was nothing about the performance of either player that screams out "this is an elite wide reciever!".

So for all the Patriots fans who ever screamed about Manning only being great because of his 'weapons', now you know what 18 would do if he had to throw to 'other guys'.

He won 14 straight games, an MVP award, and took his team to the Super Bowl.

This week I spoke to David James, aka the Predictor.  James makes a living out of analyzing sports and using his own unique brand of statisical and scouting analysis and intuition to make bold calls.  James recently came out with NFL rankings for the coming year.  James likes the Colts to return to the AFC Championship game where he asserts they'll take on the Buffalo Bills.

James is known for his accurate claims and unique insights, though he freely admits that he obviously can't predict injuries.  The following is a summary of our conversation as it related to the Colts.

• James is very high on Anthony Gonzalez and sees him having a huge year.
• James does not think much of Don Brown.  He expects him to seriously disappoint fans, calling him "a solid college player".  He wanted Indy to take Beanie Wells.  He felt that the excuse that Brown 'fit the Colts' system' didn't out weigh how explosive Wells is.
• He projects this to be a huge year for Peyton Manning, but there's one problem.  He sees this as being Peyton's last really big year.  In his eyes, the sum total of all Manning's nicks and dings over the years will catch up to him sooner rather than later.
• He things Jim Caldwell is a good coach, but he's very high on Ron Turner. He says that Ron didn't have the weapons to work with in Chicago.  Because of this, he sees a big year for all Indy's wideouts.  He also sees a future in head coaching for Turner, possibly with the Colts after Caldwell, but definitely with some other team.
• He noted that Norv Turner is an exemplary coordinator, but a mediocre head coach.  I'm sure we all can agree with that.
• He projects a massive slide for the Saints down to 20th.
• He feels the Colts' offensive line is underrated and doesn't get the attention it deserves.
• He stressed how important it was for the Colts to get a deal done with Mathis because the defensive line isn't the same without him.
• Finally, he called Joe Addai "that stud from LSU".  Again, no argument here.

James is enthusiastic and confident in his predictions.  While many of his projections are controversial, he did show an impressive depth of knowledge about the team.  He was coy about exactly how he achieved his predictions saying that he wasn't about to give up the "keys to the kingdom" that many teams would pay dearly for.  He did make it clear that he based his predictions on a mixture of complex statistical analysis and gut feel.

We'll track James's predictions through to the end of the season and see if he's earned his moniker.

Blue Blood is hitting the road! Join me next Thursday (the 29th) night for the Estel Walker Show on FM 100.1 in Fort Wayne.

We'll be at Buckets Sports Pub on 6282 West Jefferson in Fort Wayne from 6-7 PM.  We'll sign some books, sell some books, and talk some Colts football!

So all you Fort Wayne, Warsaw, Columbia City and Northeast Indiana readers, come out and say hi!

A few weeks ago, I got an email from a reader named Marla Siegel.  I know we have a lot of female readers and Colts fans, and I always enjoy hearing their perspective on things.  I've asked Marla to give us all some insight into what it's like for a woman who is also a die-hard football fan. It's harder than you think!  This is the third of three installments.  You can read Marla's full post here.

Beneath those Shoulder Pads, We See Your Soul:

So maybe some people react differently to female football fanatics than to our male counterparts. But is there also anything qualitatively distinct about the reasons why some of us females develop and maintain this pigskin passion in the first place? (Disclaimer Alert: Please bear in mind that these suggestions, and in fact the vast majority of what’s written throughout this entire piece, are based purely on my own observations and anecdotal experiences; not some lofty claim to a general and objective truth):

I’ve noticed that my female football fanatics and I tend to have a keener interest in the lives and personalities of the men who don those helmets. Being an awesome player isn’t necessarily enough to earn our hard won fangirl devotion; we like them to be awesome people as well. Believing that these men possess attributes we value and admire serves to validate the amount of time and emotional energy we devote to supporting the team. Personally, I’ve developed a knack for twisting even the most commonplace, unremarkable anecdotes about my favorite players into ‘evidence’ that they’re pillars of humility, integrity, and general awesomeness. Sometimes, with players I’m especially predisposed to like and admire, even the absence of bad behavior is enough to endear me. (Wait, so you mean he hit the brakes when he saw that old lady trying to cross the street rather than, say, impatiently running right over her with his SUV? He must be a saint! I KNEW I was justified in revering this guy!)

Female fans often enjoy delving into a player’s perceived psychological makeup and personality as much as they do his stats and freakish on-field athleticism. Jeffri Chadiha’s in-depth, brilliantly written 2009 piece on how Dallas Clark’s spirit and resiliency enabled him to overcome adversity has permanently solidified Dallas’s spot at the very top of my personal ‘Favorite Colts Player Ever’ list more than a season’s worth of game-salvaging plays ever could. Of course, lest Dallas let this honor go to his impossibly adorable and seemingly humble head, I should note here that this FCPE list is neither particularly difficult to secure a place on (do you not completely suck both on and off the field? Are you not named Mike Vanderjagt? You made the cut!) nor too hard to move up on (Pierre Garcon and Robert Mathis both recently earned substantial promotions due purely to their prompt and kind responses to two of my Tweets…nice work, boys!) The point being that I---and the few other female football fanatics I’m lucky enough to know---love feeling that kind hearts beat beneath those perfectly sculpted chests. Which is my awkward segue into chatting about….

A Different Kind of ‘Fantasy’ Football:

I’m a little hesitant to dwell on the drool-worthy attractiveness of some of the players here, because I really don’t want to reinforce the stereotype that female fans appreciate the sight of obscenely muscular men tackling one another to the ground more than they appreciate the game itself. But today’s modern, multi-tasking woman can focus on strategic Xs and Os while simultaneously taking in the game’s more delightfully shallow pleasures. And consider the qualities possessed by most of the NFL players who play at an elite level: talent, passion, intensity, and a uniquely focused energy and determination (the kind that highlights just how lazy people like I am by contrast). Those are all very attractive traits, and it’s unsurprising that we might be attracted to men who possess more than their share. Wearing those sinfully tight pants that leave precious little to our fertile imaginations is just a bonus.

As the NFL Turns:

If you’re looking to convert new female football fanatics (and please do…I get lonely!), one of the more successful strategies involves stressing the degree to which the NFL is filled with as much compelling human drama and scandal as the daytime soaps, Emmy-winning dramedies and “reality” shows sitting at the top of many TiVo priority lists. Every season, we’re treated to a handful of underdogs triumphing over the odds; a continuous cycle of player-team battles, breakups and the occasional harmonious reconciliation; the development of intra-team bonding or strife and the renewal of respectful (or less respectful and therefore juicier) inter-team rivalries. New and often unexpected superstars will emerge even as former greats confront the painful realization that their time in the league is at an end. (And it’s even more painful when the past-their-prime players in question don’t realize it’s time to hang up their cleats, but that’s for another post). Those potential female football fans who never grew out of their fondness for ‘bad boys’ can take heart in knowing that a couple of players can always be counted on to get themselves arrested or, even more hilariously embarrassing, on TMZ.

You know how being a fan is exhilarating, difficult and somehow more simultaneously draining and rewarding than you expected it to be? Well, that perfectly describes my experience writing this piece. If even a single line amused or resonated with one reader, then I’ll consider my rookie appearance here a genuine success.

A few weeks ago, I got an email from a reader named Marla Siegel.  I know we have a lot of female readers and Colts fans, and I always enjoy hearing their perspective on things.  I've asked Marla to give us all some insight into what it's like for a woman who is also a die-hard football fan. It's harder than you think!  This is the second of three installments.  You can read yesterday's discussion of how other women react to Marla here.

Not All Men Will Get You Either (But, In The Infamous Words of Meatloaf, Two Out of Three Ain’t Bad):

Because I hadn’t yet discovered the affirming, ‘you-love-what-I-love-and-hate-what-I-hate’ comfort of cyber-communities like this one, I set off for a local bar in search of those answers. (And, well, maybe also in search of a couple cocktails---insert obligatory Purple Drank joke here---with which to drown my Colts-related sorrows). The thing about bars, or at least the admittedly lowbrow ones I hang out in, is that they tend to feature sports-related programming blaring nonstop in the background. Those inescapable post-Super Bowl clips and recaps were like pouring an entire ocean’s worth of salt into my gaping wounds; and also further proof that ESPN, with the hopeful exception of the charmingly candid Paul Kuharsky, totally hates me. A few guys happened to notice me wincing, and politely inquired as to the source of my discomfort. These three guys reacted to my ever-so-attractive sniffling and whimpering over Indy’s defeat with a little more understanding than my female friend had, as they happened to be sports fans themselves. In retrospect, though, each of the three also conveniently represented one of the common male reactions to female football fanaticism that I’ve encountered:

And with the first pick in my personal draft, I select…:

This guy just loves yammering merrily on about football with absolutely anyone who’ll pretend to listen. If no human is able or willing to oblige, he’s the guy who tries gamely to share his random NFL opinions with inanimate objects, like the remote control or his perpetually empty beer mug. He’s not particularly deterred when they don’t respond. He doesn’t care about your gender; it’s quite possible he doesn’t even notice it. If he does eventually pick up on the fact that you’re shaped and sized differently than most of his male sports buddies, he’ll confide how psyched he is to have found an “awesomely guy-like woman” who’d rather gush about the game than those screechy shoe-obsessed shrews from Sex in the City.

Easily recognizable characteristics: hasn’t taken off his favorite player’s jersey since purchasing it sometime back during Bush’s first term; overreliance on goofy sports metaphors, which he enjoys awkwardly wedging into nearly every sentence of the conversation; a cheerful but intense passion for the game that makes you feel validated in your own wacko obsession.

• I’ll need to see your Wonderlic score before we can proceed…:

This guy admits, albeit a little reluctantly, that he thinks it’s cool you know a bit about sports. He’s just overly concerned with making sure that bit you know isn’t any bigger than the bit he knows. He refuses to let even your most basic football-related observation go by unchallenged (“but, statistically speaking, can the Colts’ pass rush be considered genuinely elite or merely a step above adequate?”) After your first five comments are dissected and parsed to the extreme, you start to wonder whether this conversation is more tiresome and headache-inducing than it’s worth. However, you can’t help but respect this guy once you figure out where he’s coming from: he truly cherishes and values the game. To him, football fandom is a special fraternity of which he’s proud to be a part, and he feels obliged to make sure you’re worthy of membership. After you’ve taken those first tentative steps towards gaining his trust by proving you can even, say, distinguish between a quarterback and a cornerback, this guy may start to solicit and value your input. Like that long-elusive Lombardi trophy we finally secured in 2007, winning over finicky fans like this is an arduous but ultimately rewarding challenge.

Easily recognizable characteristics: a penchant for tossing out obscure statistics and historical factoids even when they’re not necessarily relevant to the conversation; frequent references to his own blog, on which he alternately impresses and depresses his readers with 100,000 word scholarly analyses of any and all minor facets of the game; and a confession, usually after his third scotch, that he’s been burned before by phony female football fans who’ve turned out to love the idea of donning a cutesy little pink Romo jersey a la Jessica Simpson far more than the actual on-field action.

• Can’t you and your never-played-the-game self just stick to cooking me up some artery-clogging halftime snacks?
  

To this guy, there are women and there are sports fanatics, and the idea of these two demographic categories overlapping disrupts his antiquated view of how the world should be. He’s the one who says “So you REALLY like football that much, huh? Really? Is there, like, a reason for that or…?” about three different times before he gives up trying to converse with you at all, opting to merely scowl and shake his head a few dozen times instead. He thinks maybe your love for football means you’re less ‘feminine’, and has been known to make unfunny cracks about “certain chicks” running a little low on estrogen that makes everyone else within ear shot cringe even as he laughs uproariously at his own devilish wit. His own appreciation for the game is as shallow as a kiddie pool: he views weekly football games primarily as an excuse to amp up his beer consumption, shout at a higher decibel than usual and dream up derogatory nicknames for players on the opposing teams. However, he’s generally forgotten all about the game within a few minutes of its conclusion. The ultimate outcome---and the various little triumphs and defeats that occur within every match-up---don’t hold much interest for him. And, as a woman who dares to love football more than what he deems properly ‘girly’ pursuits like shopping, baking and maybe hair braiding, you interest him even less.  Fortunately, as females continue to make a great impact on the sports world as participants, journalists and fans, this sort of gender-biased cluelessness is becoming mercifully obsolete.

Easily recognizable characteristics: He dislikes you. It’s visceral and immediate. He lacks both the ability and desire to mask his contempt. You can also identify this type by the fact that he spends large chunks of every football game insinuating with the subtlety of a jackhammer that every fan and player on the opposing team is---har dee har har---homosexual. Even the guys stuck hanging out with him start to edge their bar stools farther and farther away until they’re barely within shouting distance by halftime.

Ed note:  For the record, I fancy myself as Guy #2, but I treat everyone that way...not just the ladies.  This article will appear in the Articles sidebar in its completed form.  Tomorrow:  What drives a woman to football?

A few weeks ago, I got an email from a reader named Marla Siegel.  I know we have a lot of female readers and Colts fans, and I always enjoy hearing their perspective on things.  I've asked Marla to give us all some insight into what it's like for a woman who is also a die-hard football fan. It's harder than you think!  This is the first of three installments.

Confessions of a Female Football Fanatic

Girl Power…Outage? Football-Indifferent Females Don’t Always Get Us:

I’ve never been one of those noble, ‘suffer in silence’ types. Honestly, I’m more of a ‘let’s wallow in our shared anguish over Nutella-dipped Oreos’ kind of girl. So after discovering the hard way one morning this past February that even the tastiest Java Chip Frappuccino becomes too salty for consumption when mixed with gallons of bitterly shed tears, I ventured over to my best friend’s apartment for a super-sized dose of the support she could always be counted on to provide.

“You look absolutely hideous,” my best friend greeted. She then offered tissues, Visine and an eagerness to mercilessly mock whichever guy had sent me spiraling into meltdown mode. You see, as much as my friend and I prided ourselves on having lots of goals and interests and passions that were not dependent on our dating lives (or, er, lack thereof), she assumed based on experience that heartbreak of this magnitude could only mean that I had the boy-related blues.

I hastened to explain that I was sobbing over not just one man, but approximately 53 of them. And when that many oversized men trample over your fangirl dreams of vicarious Super Bowl glory, you’re going to be left flattened and crushed. In the interest of maintaining the family-friendly standards of this blog, I’ll spare you my friend’s expletive-laden response. Suffice it to say, though, that this generally empathic friend could muster only chilly bewilderment. How could she not understand why I was emotionally demolished over…well, over ‘a bunch of random men I’d never met losing a game?’

Okay, so maybe I could understand how my reaction might be seen as a tad extreme when viewed from an objective and rational perspective. But, as many of us know all too well, fandom is neither objective nor rational. My friend, oblivious to the vicarious roller coaster of thrills and devastation that fandom provides, simply didn’t get it.

As I curled up on her sofa, still trying to choke back tears while gory images of Tracey Porter’s game-sealing interception pranced tauntingly through my mind, it occurred to me that very few of my friends or even family members did truly get it. And, to be fair, I didn’t understand the bizarre nature of my fandom much better than they did. Why did I care so much? Why did the people in my life with whom I had otherwise had so much in common care so little? And to what extent did my gender somehow alter my experience as a fan and how others perceived and reacted to it? Did the fact that I’m female mean that the reasons for and manifestations of my fandom were in any way different than those of my Y-chromosone-carrying counterparts?

Check back tomorrow for Part Two as Marla explains the three ways in which men react to her love affair with the Colts

The book signing last night went great.  For those who haven't been to Blue Crew, be sure to check it out soon.  It's a great place for Colts fans.

The restaurant is kid friendly.

And best of all, it's totally authentic.  Check this picture, and see if you can make out what's in the upper right hand corner.

If you note the goal posts, you'll see just to the right an upside down Mike Vanderjagt jersey.  Then there is a football protruding out of the wall (wide right!).  Next to the ball is the phrase "NFL MOST ACCURATE KICKER WAS HERE".  Classic.  Painful, but classic.

All in all it was an outstanding evening.  Thanks to everyone who showed up.  It meant so much to me to meet you.  I'm grateful you choose to come here every day.  Thanks again to Blue Crew and to Patti Donahue whose staff did such a great job making us feel at home.

Big news:

The first book signing for Blue Blood will be TONIGHT!

I'll be at Blue Crew Sports Grill at 7035 E 96th St from 6-8 PM TONIGHT!

Kids are welcome (mine will be there for at least a little while).  I'll have books for sale and will be happy to sign any copy you already have.

It's been a long time coming right?  Let's get together and have a good time at the mother of all Colts' themed restaurants.  I'll even have some name tags handy in case you want to put your screen name on your shirt.  I'll be the guy wearing the Argentina jersey, wearing a DZ tag and standing next to a pile of books.

If you can't make it out tonight on Monday, please don't forget that On Friday, July 30 from noon-2 pm I'll be at Teapots N Treasures at 7 Market Street (almost right on the Circle).  The owner, Donna, has books on sale now, so if you are downtown, stop in and say hi.

Inception is the best movie of the decade.

Alright, I know that the decade just started (or is just ending if you are actually paying attention, but whatever), so that's not saying much. However, in 2019, Inception is so good that it might STILL be the best movie of the decade.

Inception is the story of 'dream theives', principally Leonardo DiCaprio and Joseph Gordon-Levitt.  They enter a subject's subconscious through a chemically induced state and extract information.  Circumstances dictate that they are required to attempt the risky act of "Inception" which is planting an idea in a subject's mind and making him believe it is his own, a much more difficult task than the normal 'extraction' of information.

That's the plot, and as Sci-Fi ideas go, it's basically a step up from half a dozen Deep Space Nine episodes.  What makes in Inception a remarkable film is that it is executed in a near flawless way.  Chris Nolan (Memento, Batman films) may be the best director working right now, and this may well have been his masterpiece.

Yeah, it's even better than Dark Knight.

Inception is a the rarest of films.  It's a legitimate action thriller with amazing philosophical depth and implications.  It is a complex and complicated film that still makes sense throughout.  It delivers the unexpected without resorting to cheap gimmick and tricks.  It is a perfectly acted film in which you can't remember any one performance at the end of the movie because they all served the material so faithfully.  From solely an entertainment perspective, you'll be on the edge of your seat throughout.  I literally leaned forward for the final hour of the movie.  It has the ingenuity of Memento with the budget of a Dark Knight.  Amazing.

Perhaps most imporantly, it contains some of the most imaginative and visually spectacular sequences since the Matrix.

Try and remember what you felt the first time you watched the Matrix.  Before it was a cliche.  Before you'd seen it a million times.  Do you remember that emotion of watching them pass through the metal dector and everything that happened after that?  Inception has those moments of "sheer wow".  My wife and I turned to each other and we both shared the same thought, "I've never seen anything like this". Moments like that are why I love cinema.  They don't happen often anymore, so they are to be treasured when then they do.

This is a movie that would be too easy to spoil, so I won't say more.  Go and see it.  Today.  This is an important landmark film. If you like action or Sci-Fi or just drama, go see it.  If you love acting, go see it. If you love directing and writing that are unparalleled, go see it.  If you love ideas and philosophy, go see it.

If you like movies at all, go see Inception.

It may well be the best movie of the decade...even if you start counting in 2001.

This is technically a link, but I wanted to put it on the main page because it was so good.  Our friends at the Blitzburgh Blog have done a nice write up on how to understand DVOA, the principle stat from the footballoutsiders.  If DVOA is new to you, check it out.

Their main statistic (the one that gets all the press coverage) is DVOA, or Defense-adjusted Value Over Average. The beauty of this statistic is that it can be used to compare teams as a whole or in any situation you can think of as well as players. Third downs in the fourth quarter? Yep. Second-and-8? Definitely.

Here’s an example of how DVOA is calculated: Suppose the Steelers are facing the Bengals, have a third-and-5 on their own 35, and Rashard Mendenhall rushes for six yards. You place a value on that six yard run, compare it to how other third-and-5’s fare around the league, and adjust for the quality of the Bengals defense.