A podcast and a plea for help

Written by Nate Dunlevy.

18 Plays is up for the Texans game.  You can listen in the embedded player below, you can subscribe via Itunes, or you can just download it right here.

In a fit of drunken inspiration, resident Patriots fan JC wrote me with a nice idea.  Though I'm sure he won't remember doing so this morning, he suggested it would be "fun" to have fans share their favorite Colts/Pats game memories.  Though I don't usually go in for JC's ideas about "fun", in this case, I agree.  So if you have a favorite Colts/Pats experience (and it can be even an old school Colts/Pats game from before the Manning/Brady era), send it to This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it. (don't put it in the comments here).  I'll put together the best submissions and post them on Sunday morning.  If you contribute something we use and haven't yet gotten an official program from Super Bowl XLI, we'll send you one as a prize.  Someday, I'll run out of those and then who knows what we'll do.

Enjoy this game Sunday.  Sure, we'll play another one next year since there is little chance either team loses the division lead, but there are only so many of these clashes left.  In 20 years all people will remember about this decade is Brady/Manning.  Soak it all in.  These are special games.

State of the AFC

Written by Nate Dunlevy.

Last night's Steelers/Broncos game provided some modicum of clarity at the half way point of the race.  Here's how I size up the contenders:

1.  Indianapolis-The Colts remind me a lot of last year's Steelers.  No run game, suspect line, great QB and defense.  The Colts defense passes my 'eyeball test'.  The offense does not.  This team needs get Gonzo and Brown healthy.  Assuming that happens, I think they represent the AFC in the Super Bowl.  They are two games clear of the rest of the conference, so you have to like their chances at a bye or #1 seed.  All other top contenders have two conference losses except Pittsburgh which lost a tough game with the Bears.   They have allowed the fewest points in football. They have scored the 5th most.  That's a great team.  The future schedule is doable:  NE, @Baltimore, @Hou, Denver.  If the Colts can split those four games, they'll go no worse than 13-3 on the season.

2.  Pittsburgh-They lost a fluky game to the Bears and at the gun to the Bengals.  They may be better than they were last year, as now they can almost sort of run the ball.  Anyone who watched them last night knows they are 100% legit.  Polamalu is a force on defense.  I'm not a little sad they aren't on our schedule this year. They beat the Vikings (fluky, I know, but that evens up that Bears loss), and have the third best point differential in the AFC.  They have a very manageable schedule and stand to win 13 games, if they can go 2-1 verses Cincy and Baltimore (with two games at home).  With one non-conference loss, they would force Indy to win 14 games to get the #1 overall seed.

3.  New England-I'm still not sure what to make of this team.  They've spent the better part of a month beating up the dregs of the NFL which masks some of the lackluster performances they've had.  There's not much need to dwell on it though, we'll find out soon enough what they are.  I don't think they are anything more than the third best team in the conference.  They do have the second best point differential (which tells us who a team really is) in football, but that 59-0 win over the Titans sort of tilts the table.  They are number one in DVOA as well, so I'm forced to conclude they are good.  My eyes have told me otherwise, but I haven't watched them closely in a few weeks.  They still play @Indy, @NO, @Mia, @Hou.  I can't see them finishing better than 12-4.

4.  Cincinnati-Don't sleep on the Bengals. They can run, pass and play good defense. They've gutted out some tough wins (and had a heart-breaker with Denver).  They've actually allowed fewer points this season than Pittsburgh.  It would tempt me to rank them higher, but they still play 5 of their last 8 on the road including @Pitt, @SD, @Minn, @NYJ.  I can't see them doing any better than a 12-4 finish at BEST.  DVOA doesn't think much of them right now, and they'll have to win some more of those close games to hang in the playoff fight.

5.  San Diego-Yes, I have them ahead of Denver.  It's the typical Chargers.  They start bad, then they get a bunch of winnable division games, and make a hard push for the playoffs.  I hate this team. I don't want to play them. I know that their point differential is one less than the Broncos though, and that they are moving in the right direction for the first time this season.  They have a brutal slate in front of them, though.  They have Philly at home, Denver on the road, and then @Dallas and Cincinnati.  11-5 would be a great record for them.  10-6 will win the division, if they can beat Denver.

6.  Denver-Not buying it. Orton is an utter fraud.  They put up 3 points on offense last night (could have been zero, but the Steelers dropped a pick on the first drive).  They have to play San Diego, NYG, @Indy, @Philly.  They'll probably drop another game to a sub par team because they'll have a game where they can't score 10 points.  The Chargers game is key.  If they can beat San Diego, they'll win the division. If they don't, they'll be forced to battle out the Texans for the final wild card spot.  I think they've been exposed the last two weeks, and won't be surprised at all to see them go into a tail spin.

Lurking:  Houston.  I don't think the schedule works out for them to win more than 10 games.

By the way, the top 6 teams in the AFC are a combined 11-1 verses the NFC (the top 6 in the NFC are 10-5 verses the AFC).

 

I've seen this somewhere before...

Written by Nate Dunlevy.

The Colts offense seems to be struggling in recent games, and Demond found one of the reasons why.  He mentioned it to me the other day, and when I did the math to check his claim, I was stunned to see how right he was.

I want to present you two WRs.  Guess who they are. (update:  I've now included FO numbers through week 9)

WR 1
Games 8
Catches 27
Yards 320
TDs 3
DVOA: -22%
Catch rate: 47%
DYAR:  -42

WR 2
Games 8
Catches 27
Yards 376
TDs 2
DVOA:  -14.5%
Catch rate: 51%
DYAR: -6

Raise your hand if you think Marvin Harrison played well in 2008.  No takers?
Now vote if you think Pierre Garcon has played well in 2009.  I assume some of you have your hands up.

By now you've figured it out.  WR 1 is Marvin Harrison through 8 games in 2008.  WR 2 is Pierre Garcon this year.  Remember that with Garcon you also have to factor in the 7 penalties he's accured this season. 

Almost all the improvement in the Colts' offense has come from Wayne and Clark elevating their game.  Those two are producing at an incredible rate, but in terms of the third and fourth options, the 2009 Colts are almost identical to the 2008 squad.  Garcon is the spitting image of 2008 Marvin Harrison.  For the record, let's compare Collie and Gonzalez:

Gonzo:  34, 412, 3 TDs, 28% DVOA, 72% catch rate
Collie:  32, 356, 4 TDs, 10.1% DVOA, 67% catch rate

Collie has filled in wonderfully in the slot for Gonzalez.  Gonzo was a bit better, but virtually identical. Now it's clear he was a better than Collie, but still in the ball park.

We need to get Gonzalez back and get Garcon off the field.  I like Frenchy.  He's playing hard.  He's improving, but he's just not there yet. He's hurting the offense.  When the offense was really clicking early in the year, he had a positive DVOA.  Since week four, he's been on a consistant slide. 

Normally, comparing a WR to Harrison is a compliment.  Not so in this case.  Now we know why the Colts didn't bring Harrison back.

They already had his clone on the roster.

Anatomy of a Nail Biter

Written by Nate Dunlevy.

I've had a lot of emotions today: nervous, confident, angry, irate, relieved, resigned, elated.  By now my bipolar afternoon has settled down into one dominant reaction:  satisfaction.  This game was a huge win for the Colts.  It takes all the pressure off of next week's game with the Pats.  That tilt will have all its own drama, I'm sure, but it's nice not to feel like the fate of the free world is riding on it.  More on that to come. For now, we should all take a deep breath, and just enjoy being 8-0 for a few more hours.

Reasons to Smile:

  • Joseph Addai's TD run.  Actually, his whole game.  I know we've been branded as "Addai apologists", but anyone who still doubts him doesn't understand football.  This guy does everything that's asked of him every week.  I know his rushing numbers have been lackluster, but the problem is clearly the offensive line who can't seem to keep people out of the backfield.  Addai's TD run could have been a three yard loss easily, but Addai shook free of the tackler and gave the Colts the lead.  There are problems with the run game, no question.  Addai is part of the solution, however.
  • Jerraud Powers.  I realize that he didn't actually get the second foot down that would have made for a recovery, and instead touched the ball on the goal line while technically still out of bounds.  The result is the same.  He's playing a great corner right now and is making heady plays.  We'll miss MJax, but much less so because Powers has the look of a star.
  • The defense in general.  Tremendous game.  I've been harping on it all year, but this unit is the better of the two, or at least the more complete.  They forced two picks in the passing game and held the Texans backs to 22 caries for 45 yards and a fumble.  This Texans team can really fling the ball, so 17 points allowed is a great effort.
  • Dallas Clark.  He'll be starting in the Pro Bowl.
  • Freeney.  Not just for the sacks, but for the nice plays against the run.  He's doing it all right now.
  • Great 5 man rush with Brackett blitzing.
  • Frenchy gettng a PI on the Wayne pick.  Didn't help, but shows he tried.  OPI on a pick is one of the few 'acceptable' penalties.  As was Saturday's hold after the Texans jumped offside and threatened to swallow Manning whole.  That play was a bad break.

Reasons to Frown:

  • The coaching.  Hang on, I'll get to it.  There were at least 5 awful, indefensible decisions in this game.  I've praised Caldwell a lot.  He caught my wrath all afternoon in this one.
  • The offensive line.  Mario Williams beat CJ for a sack.  The running game was non-existent early as Addai was getting killed in the backfield (which is almost always the fault of the line, people). 
  • No deep passing game again.  I don't think Manning had even one 20 yard pass today (other than the one to Collie that was called back).  It's getting to be an issue.  The offense is taking on a serious 2008 look in the last two games.  Teams are getting more pressure on Manning (2 more sacks-that's 5 in two games after 2 in six games), and not respecting the run at all with the safeties. 
  • No run game again.  I know, Addai broke free in the fourth quarter to make the YPC respectable, but there was nothing there for most of the game.  It's killing us in the red zone.
  • As a result, there were 40 first half passes. Not good
  • Manning's pick.  Awful.   He never saw the linebacker sliding over.  He used to throw that pick all the time back in the day, but now you never see it.  It almost cost the Colts the game. 
  • Wayne's throw.  Good lord.  Like the call, hate the call, whatever.  The WR has to know he should only throw the ball if the dude is wide open in the endzone.  Simply inexcusable.
  • We don't have a kicker who can make a 48 yard kick.  I liked going for it in the first quarter with fourth and 1 (I wanted it on fourth and 6, too), but really, from that distance you should have a kicker who can be trusted to hit a 48-50 yarder.  We don't. It'll get us before it's all said and done.
  • It seemed like the Texans picked on Lacey.  I'll have to watch the tape to confirm.  It would have been nice if Jennings had pulled in that pick.
  • Awful 'Big Blitz' (at first glance they came with at least 6).  It lead to a huge play and eventually a TD for the Texans.  I don't like blitzes, but I really hate big blitzes that don't come close to landing.

Best Call:

  • It's a tie:  the challenge of the fumble and going for it on fourth and 1 early.  One worked, the other didn't.  Both were the right call.

Worst Call:

(Pardon me while I crack my neck in preparation)  It's a five way tie!  In chronological order:

  • Opting to take the ball when they won the toss with the roof open.  Seriously?  Is this rocket science?  There is a MASSIVE GLARE in your endzone that only lasts for a quarter.  Defer to the second half.  It cost them on the first drive as the WRs were looking back into the sun (especially Wayne) on the fourth down play.  We have a retractable roof.  Fine.  Don't screw yourself with it, though.  Stupid, stupid decision.  Make the Texans drive into the sun endzone.  By the second quarter it's no longer an issue.
  • Punting on fourth and 3 from the 39.  Yes, yes.  I know Addai just lost two yards thanks to a major fail by the offensive line. Still, no team in football would punt to the Colts in that situation.  Houston is not Saint Louis.  They have a good offense.  You can't just assume your D will go the whole game without ever allowing a first down.  The stats on this are overwhelming...GO FOR IT!  It took Houston just four plays to pass that spot on the field.  Awful call.
  • "Icing the kicker" at the end of the first half.  Dungy had a brilliant philosophy on this:  never give a kicker a practice kick.  If you are going to ice, you do it early.  Letting him get a free try to work out the kinks is moronic.  Now, it's possible the kick attempt was only blocked because of the timeout, but there's just no reason to do it.  I'm proud of Caldwell for figuring that one out at the end of the game.  If Brown had been given another chance, I would have started to break things.  Hopefully, he learned his lesson on this one.  UPDATE:  Word on the street is that Caldwell was not trying to ice the kicker, just trying to put a return man on the field.  That's better logic at least.  Bad execution is one thing, bad logic is another.  All is forgiven.
  • Punting on fourth and 1 from the 45.  Again, same logic.  It took the Texans three plays to get to that spot on the field.  Punting on anything shorter than fourth and 4 or 5 on the other team's side of the field just doesn't pay off most of the time.  Especially against a good offense.  The three and out allowed Houston to dominate the entire third quarter and almost cost the Colts the game.  This crap won't fly against New England, Jim.  You have to be aggressive.  No one would do you the favor of punting in the same position.  Stop helping the other team out. 
  • The Wayne pass.  I was tempted to let this go, because I loved the call last week, and I want to be fair.  Then a reader pointed out that having Wayne throw the ball takes Wayne out of the pattern.  It was also fresh on the D's mind because you just tried it last week.  Granted, the execution by Wayne was WORSE than the call, but still.  Terrible job.

Jim Caldwell has been brilliant all year.  He nearly cost his team the game today, however.  This was not a good day for him, at all.  Still, he's 8-0, so that helps make him bullet proof.  He's still got a lot of rope with me, but the punting on fourth and short has to stop.  It will crush our season if it doesn't.

Reasons I'm Flyin':

  • This was a serious 'big boy' win over a playoff caliber team.  The Texans are going to win a lot of games this year, and I love the way the Colts gutted it out.  Wins don't come much sweeter than this, so don't worry about it...celebrate it.  I'm genuinely thrilled they won today.  That's a fun feeling.
  • The defense is championship caliber right now.  It's the Colts best unit. 
  • The AFC South is all but clinched.  The Colts have some cushion to work with.  I don't think that New England and Baltimore are all that good (I know Baltimore isn't), but it's nice to know that a split of the next two games won't kill us.  We've had the game at Houston down as a loss for some time, which is why winning today was so critical.

Reasons I'm Dyin':

  • They should have opened a 20 point lead on this team.  They let them hang around and could've lost easily.
  • Gonzo and Hayden are still out.  We'll need them both before all is said and done.
  • I hate Pats week.  I hate the Pats.  I hate thinking about them.  The only thing I like about them is watching them lose.

The Bottom Line:

Eight games.  Eight wins.  A four game lead in the division (yeah, yeah 3 1/2, whatever).  At least a one game lead (hopefully two after tomorrow night) over the rest of the AFC.  The Colts' schedule hasn't been as bad as people think (not that SOS matters at all in the NFL).  Two winning teams, a .500 team, and the Dolphins in Miami (which is not an easy game).  This team has a great D, a great QB, some great pass catchers.  That's the formula the Steelers rode to the title last year.  There's no reason to think Indy won't do the same this year.  Today, the Colts were clearly superior to a good Texans team, but made too many stupid mistakes to blow them out.  On a day they didn't play their best, they still won against a team who desperately needed to beat them.

Smile.  This was a very good day.

Fall of the South

Written by Luke Dunlevy.

Colts 20 - Texans 17

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Colts/Texans in game blog

Written by Nate Dunlevy.

PREGAME:

Brown and Moala are both inactive today.  DeVan is playing over Pollack.  All accounts are that the roof will be open.  Barf.

FIRST QUARTER:

  • The Colts win the toss, and take the ball. Manning hits his first 5 passes in a row, but two passes to Collie fall incomplete (the second on third down was a flat drop).  The Colts were going for the gutless punt on 4th and 6 from the 37, when the Texans jumped offsides.  On fourth down, Manning threw a terrible ball to an open Addai.  Texans start at the 31.  Simply a terrible toss by #18.  Addai wasn't super open, but the ball carried too far out of bounds.  Demond says Wayne was covered deep, and Clark may have been open.
  • The D comes out strong.  Freeny picks up the coverage sack to start the game.  Jennings hits Johnson for little gain.  On third and long, Powers saves a TD (so says Demond at the game) by tripping up Slaton on a screen.  The result is three and out for the Texans and Indy's ball.
  • Manning is just picking them apart.  He's dumping short on every throw, and the addition of Addai out in patterns is making all the difference.  79 yard drive ends with Manning hitting Kid Joe on 3rd and 4 for a 7 yard score.  7-0 Colts.  Manning might have 60 attempts today.
  • POWERS WITH THE PICK.  He couldn't be playing better.  Colts ball at midfield.
  • Manning hits Garcon with a huge pass for 26 yards, and then he gets the Texans to jump offsides on consecutive plays.  It set the Colts up with first and goal from the 4, but a negative run (LB untouched up the middle), a drop? on a pass behind Addai, and a one yard screen pass to Wayne (Collie had OPI on the play but was waived off).  Field goal gives the Colts a 10-0 lead.  This reminds me of the game in Houston last year where the Colts dominated early, but the Texans scored a bunch of points in the middle of the game.
  • We see the first vestiges of slipping from the kick coverage team as Cody Glenn (formerly of the practice squad until this week) picks up a 15 yard penalty on the coverage.  The D more than holds its own.  Two runs, a false start (thanks crowd noise!) and Freeney forces a third down scramble.  That's two three and outs and a pick for the Colts D.  Can't ask for more than that.
  • Colts are driving to end the quarter.  26 passes, 5 runs.  And the offense is moving the ball with ease.  So there you go.

SECOND QUARTER:

  • The Texans help the Colts with a couple of bad penalties, but the drive eventually stalls, and the Colts settle for 3.  Colts 13-0.  The lack of a real run game may be starting to catch up to Indy in the redzone.  The team just isn't converting in close the way the did early in the year.  Manning can't be happy with that.
  • Glenn atones for his earlier penalty with a HUGE stick inside the 20 on the kick off.  Houston is (was at least before they lost Owens) a good offensive team.  Well, at least they could pass.  Today, they can't do anything.  Freeney and Mathis sack Schaub on 3rd down, and the Texans punt AGAIN.  Incredible performance by one of the best defenses in football.  It's time to get a touch down and put this game away. 
  • The Colts drive stalls as Addai is swarmed under on third and 1 from the 40.  He got hit 3 yards behind the line of scrimmage for a loss.  He had no chance to even make a move.  This team can't run block even a little bit.  Not even a little.  They punt on fourth and four. 
  • The Texans go to the ground game and generate some first downs, and Johnson helps them out with a facemask penalty.  It takes them just four plays to get past where the Colts punted from.  The Texans get down inside the 35, and go for it on fourth and 1, by throwing to Andre Johnson. The Texans drive down near the goal line, but Moats fumbles.  Jerraud Powers makes a crazy smart play to reestablish himself in bounds.  After review, the ball is ruled to be a fumble, recovered in the endzone.  Colts ball.  Wow.  Houston was threatening to get back in the game, but the turnover saves the 13 point lead.
  • The Colts get bailed out after three straight incomplete passes to Clark.  Dallas gets popped on third down and drops the ball.  The Texan is called for a personal foul.  Manning drives them deep into Houston territory before throwing an awful pick.  The Texans run it back to midfield, and now threaten to score.  They have the dreaded "two for none" working. They could have the lead before the Colts ever see the ball again.
  • The D does a credible job, only allowing 12 yards.  The Texans started at the 50, so it was enough for a 56 yards FG attempt.  His first attempt was blocked, but the Colts called timeout first.  That's never a move that makes sense.  Why let him practice?  Stupid, stupid move by Caldwell.  Brown hits the kick on the second attempt.  13-3 Colts.

HALFTIME:

Manning has already thrown the ball 40 times for just 6 yards a throw.  That's not a recipe for success. The defense was incredible, and Indy leads by 10, but this was a deeply frustrating half.  The Colts should be up by 20 at least.  They have to find a way to run the ball in the second half.

THIRD QUARTER:

  • The Colts didn't put them away when they had the chance, and now the Texans are back in the game.  The key play on the drive was Schaub escaping Mathis on third and 7 and scrambling for 19 yards.  It was close to being a sack and a punt, but instead went the other way.  The Texans wound up down on the goal line and scored easily.  13-10 Colts.  Game on.  Nightmare:  continuing.
  • The Texans continue to self destruct.  This time a stupid personal foul after the kick off set up the Colts at the 45 yard line.  The Colts don't take advantage, however, as they elect to punt on fourth and one with a three and out.  No sooner do I praise Caldwell this week, than he shows up with an AWFUL game.  Tons of punts on fourth and short, a stupid decision to take the ball in the first quarter, and an inexcusable time out on the field goal attempt.  He's coached this game to lose it.  Terrible job.
  • A moronic blitz on 3rd and 5 gives the Texans a big play.  They pass the 46 in just three plays.  The Colts brought the house and didn't come close to reaching Schaub.  The Texans convert two more third and mediums on the drive.  They now face third and goal from the half yard line as the third quarter ends.
  • Indy has punted on 4th and 3 from the 39 and 4th and 1 from the 45.  They are on the verge of trailing 17-13 (barring a miracle stop).  Manning is going to need another fourth quarter comeback if the Horse hopes to pull one out today.

FOURTH QUARTER

  • Touchdown Texans.  17-13.  Betcha wish you had that stupid punt back, Jim.
  • WTF?  Wayne throws a flanker pass which is picked off.  Awful throw.  What was Wayne thinking?  He threw a duck.  Hard to kill the call after it worked with Addai last week, but that throw was insanely bad.  Indy is in serious trouble.
  • HUGE stand by the D.  Jennings drops a potential pick six, but the D holds in three plays.  Colts survive the stupid pick, and get the ball near the 40.
  • Joe Addai carries the Colts downfield and into the endzone.  The Horse finally finds some running plays, and Addai delivers on third and goal from the one.  He got hit in the backfield (again), but danced his way to the go ahead score.  20-17 Colts.  It's time for the D to make another stand.  It's Freeney and Mathis time!
  • Another huge third down conversion for the Texans as Jennings falls down to get the drive going.  A holding call and a brilliant play by Foster forced another huge third down, which Schaub converts again for 20 plus yards to Johnson.  This time the blitz saves the day, however, as Brackett hits Schaub as he throws and Session picks it off.  Colts ball with 2:14 to play. The Texans have 2 timeouts, so one first down will win the game.
  • The O Line collapses at the wrong time.  A two yard run, a false start, and a sack fumble (mercifully recovered by Diem) took the clock down to the two minute warning.  Addai does his best on third and long, but Houston will get the ball with 1:40 and change and no timeouts.  McAfee puts it down around the 15.  The D needs to hang on one more time.
  • The D plays soft, and the Texans make it out near midfield, but use a minute to do it.  Schaub makes a miracle completion to avoid the sack, and the Texans pick up yet another big third down.  The Texans get the ball down to the 25 with just :01 to go. 

HE MISSED IT!  WIDE LEFT!!

 

WIDE LEFT!!! HE MISSED IT!

 

HOOOO!

Who to Root for: Week 9

Written by Luke Dunlevy.

Last week our picks went 2-2, which I can live with.  We got the most important result with Denver going down hard at Baltimore.  Let's take a look at this week's key games. 

Easy Calls

Miami at New England:  Bill Belichick would like to teach the cheeky Dolphins a lesson after the beatdown the Dolphins dished out last year in New England.  The Dolphins were on the road last week and play 5 of the next 7 on the road.  Brutal.  With four losses already, this is the biggest game of Miami's season. 

San Diego at New York (N):  The Broncos have been exposed, but the Chargers are still two games back in the West.  San Diego has a tough slate coming up and needs to win this game to keep their division title (and wild card) hopes alive.  I hope they lose.

Tough Calls

Baltimore at Cincinnati:  Hmmm.  The Colts still have to play the Ravens on the road, but I'm going with the obvious call here.  I'm rooting for the Bengals to pick up their third loss.  I believe if the Colts prevail tomorrow against Houston they are looking at a 13-3 season (worst case scenario).  Thus, I am rooting for everyone in the AFC to have at least four losses.  I believe this will happen. 

Pittsburgh at Denver:  I'm going with the "chalk" pick here as well.  Is it risky to root for a two loss Pittsburgh team?  Yes, but the Steelers still have enough tough games left to get to four losses.  I want some padding in the event that the Colts blow the home game against Denver. 

AFC Playoff Standings

Indianapolis (7-0)

Denver (6-1)

Cincinnati (5-2)

New England (5-2)

Pittsburgh (5-2)

Houston (5-3)

Baltimore (4-3)

San Diego (4-3)

To be clear

Written by Nate Dunlevy.

Bob Sanders won't be cut.

2010 Base salary:  $2.275 million

This is the amount of real money the Colts can save by cutting him.

Outstanding Bonus Money:  $7,355,000*

If you cut Bob Sanders next year (assuming there is a salary cap and that the rules are the same as before), it costs the team roughly $3,677,500 EACH of the next two years in cap space.

To keep him next year it costs just $4,184,166.

Cutting Bob Sanders only would save the Colts 500K in cap space and $2.275 million in real dollars.

In other words, you couldn't even resign Freddy Keiaho with the cap space you'd save.  That's assuming there even is a cap, which is a massive assumption.

Bob Sanders is cheap next year.

He's not going anywhere.  It makes zero sense to cut him at that price unless he actually retires from football or is dead.

*there might be play in the numbers based on types of bonuses and what the CBA ends up being, but the rough framework holds.

 

 

 

It just hurts

Written by Nate Dunlevy.

It's been a rough week.  Here's a recap of all the injury news ranked by how much it will affect the team going forward:

1.  Kelvin Hayden is out a month-This is actually the worst of the news.  Indy plays their next four games against teams with good offenses (Houston, NE, Baltimore).  Losing Hayden is a major blow.  Sure he'll probably be back for the playoffs, but where and who the Colts play could be greatly compromised by his absence. Impact Rating:  5 bandages (out of five)

2.  Anthony Gonzalez is out 2-3 more weeks-First, can we can the whole "Colts lied to us" crap?  There is a difference between an injury taking longer to heal and getting lied to about it.  He went in for a scope yesterday.  Do you think they would have waited that long to scope him if they thought he was hurt worse than they said?  Gonzo's injury is a serious blow.  Garcon's play has deteriorated week to week, and his DVOA is down to -14% (57th in the league) and his catch rate is 50%.  That means he only catches half the balls thrown at him, and he is about 14% worse than an average WR would be.  This team needs Gonzo back and soon.  Impact Rating: 3 bandages

3. Tyjuan Hagler is on IR (done for the year)-Hagler took the job from Phil Wheeler right before the season opened.  The Colts' run defense has been solid, so taking out a starting linebacker (even a reasonably fungible one) hurts.  Still, Wheeler has shown flashes before, and hopefully he'll be able to step in.  Impact Rating:  3 bandages

4Marlin Jackson is on IR (done for the year)-This is depressing from a personal level since everyone loves MJax.  It also takes away the hope that the Indy defense was going to find another gear.  The pass D has been outstanding with the rookie corners, but a healthy Jackson and a healthy Hayden promised to take things up another level.  Still, the D has been playing without Jackson most of the year anyway, but the dream secondary of Bethea, Hayden, Sanders and Jackson will probably never play together again.  The Colts D now is what it is (which is very good), but I see little hope it will get even better.  Impact Rating: 2 bandages

5.  Bob Sanders is reported to have a torn biceps (done for the year)-You don't get to whine when injury prone players get hurt.  Indy knew Sanders was an injury risk, and they have a more than adequate backup plan.  Bob's barely played anyway, so it's hard to argue that his injury will hurt the defense.  Again, however, the 'extra gear' is gone.  This D is what it is.  All we needed was for Bob to be able to play in January and to lose him to an injury totally unrelated to his offseason knee surgery is devastating emotionally.  Impact Rating: 1 bandage

Every team has a threshold.  There is a level of injury that a team can sustain before you start to see slippage on the field.  The Colts have the depth to cover these losses, but we are right up against the wall now.  Another major injury and 2009 will become just like 2007 and 2008.  Bob and MJax were already absorbed well.  Gonzo's been missed, but 18 has kept the ship afloat.  Hayden needs to come back.

There's no panic yet, but we need to start getting some good news quickly on the injury front.  As the team stands right now, assuming that Gonzo and Hayden return, this team is still Super Bowl cailber.  Take out one more piece though, and odds begin to drop.

Gonzo has surgery

Written by Nate Dunlevy.

This is an official club press release.  Tip to Derek at XL 950

The Indianapolis Colts have signed veteran free agent defensive end Josh Thomas and have placed defensive back Marlin Jackson on injured reserve.  Wide receiver Anthony Gonzalez underwent arthroscopic right knee surgery yesterday to clean out loose particles, and safety Bob Sanders visited with Dr. James Andrews yesterday to gather additional information on the left elbow injury he suffered last Sunday against San Francisco, the club announced today.

Jackson suffered the left knee injury during a non-contact drill early in Wednesday’s practice.  He is out for the remainder of the season.  Gonzalez suffered a recent setback in practice that led to yesterday’s procedure.  A timetable for his return is not determined.

Gonzo got scoped.  No word on what that means.  The procedure doesn't sound bad...it wasn't reconstructive surgery, so I guess there's hope.

Bob's getting his wing checked.  Grrr.

Josh Thomas is back...that's an interesting move.

None of this is good news.

UPDATE:  Gonzo is expected to miss 2-3 more weeks.  Please note:  the Yahoo report yesterday was wrong.  It said he had a torn PCL and described him 'hoping for a miracle' in order to return. This is not nearly as bad as the Yahoo report claimed.

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