A few months ago I looked at the various units on the Colts' team to assess if they were better or worse than last season.  Looking back, I'm encouraged that I was wrong about some of those assessments (I would no longer rate the Coaching as "Worse").  As a whole, we would all agree that the Colts are a better team now than last year.  Certainly, the record would indicate improvement (11-0 verses 7-4 a year ago).

Let's go deeper into the numbers and see how the 2009 Colts compare with their ill fated counterparts from a year ago to see if this year's team is truly better equipped for a playoff run.  We'll start with the offense today, and tackle the defense tomorrow, with the special teams and coaching on Saturday.

Quarterback:

Statistically, Manning has been a bit better than in 2008, although that's largely because he got off to a slow start last year.  His DVOA right now is at 38.6%, last year he finished at 36.1%.  But essentially, 2009 Manning is the same Manning we had for the last several weeks of 2008.  Let's call this one a wash.

Running Backs:

The perception is that Addai is playing better than he did in 2008.  That's true to some extent, but mostly he's just healthier.  Last year, he had 155 carries for the season.  Currently he's at 160.  He's also caught 15 more passes this season than all of last year.  His YPC is up (barely), as is his DVOA (3.8% from -1.3%) and his success rate (52% from 48%).  Don Brown has clearly out performed Dom Rhodes from last year as well, although Brown's health may cause the Colts to bring Dom back before it's all over with.  As a unit, the Colts are rushing for 3.9 YPC this year as opposed to 3.4 YPC last year, and the trend is upward.

Wide Receivers:

Dallas Clark and Reggie Wayne are having better years than they did last year.  Pierre Garcon is set to surpass Marvin Harrison's 2008 production.  Garcon has a DVOA of -.08 and 37 catches for 574 and 4 TDs and a catch rate of 52%.  Marv finished last year with a DVOA of -9.2%, 60 catches for 636 and 5 TDs with a catch rate of 56%.  Garcon will likely pass Harrison's yardage and TD totals in the next couple of weeks.  The only slight regression the Colts have seen is from the slot.  Last year, AG caught 72% of passes thrown his way for a DVOA of 26.2%, and conventional stats of 57, for 664 and 4 TDs.  Collie's numbers are great for a rookie, but not up to that level of production.  He has caught 69% of passes for a DVOA of 14.5% with 43 catches for 483 and 4.  By the end of the year, Collie should surpass Gonzo's production from last year in terms of volume, but fall just short in terms of quality.  As a unit, the WRs are clearly better than they were last year.

O-Line:

In terms of pass protection, the Colts adjusted sack rate is slightly higher in 2009 than in 2008, but only slightly and still ranks first in the NFL.  It's important to note that at the same time, Manning's YPA is up from 7.2 YPA to 8.1 YPA, indicating slightly more time to throw.  In terms of run blocking, the Colts were 23rd in 2008, 21st in power running (62%), and the second most 'stuffed' team in the league (21% of runs resulted in no gain or a loss).  It didn't much matter which direction they ran in, unless they ran right where they were 31st.  Now a year later, the Colts have replaced three starters (depending on how you count moving CJ from guard to tackle), and the run blocking has improved.  Indy is now up to 14th in "adjusted line yards", and power runs are up slightly to 65% and stuffs are down slightly to 20%.  Those aren't massive improvements, but they are improvements, and as we've noted, the run game seems to be trending upward right now.  The Colts are now respectable running in most directions (third in the league running up the middle), but have fallen off on runs around the left end (25th in the league).  As a whole, it's fair to say that the offensive line has shown slight improvement.

Offensive Summary:

The 2008 Colts had an offensive DVOA of 22.1% good for 5th in the league.  The pass offense was second at 41.8%, and the run offense was 27th at -6.5% (below average).

The 2009 Colts have an offensive DVOA of 26.1% good for 3rd in the league.  The pass offense is 5th at 49.6%, and the run offense is 15th at 2.2%.  Essentially, that means the Colts have gone from a below average rushing attack to a perfectly average rushing game.

The Colts offense is simply better now than it was a year ago.  The passing game is more sound (although that may just be the effect of a healthy Manning all year) and the running game has become respectable.

It doesn't just feel like the 2009 Colts are better on offense than the 2008 Colts...they are better.

 

Last season we got the MVP train rolling on Peyton Manning while the Colts were still 5-4.  It was easy to look at the schedule, foresee a string of wins against lesser defenses and posit that 18 was going to jump to the front of a very mediocre pack of MVP candidates.  Along the way, Manning's case was helped by 8 straight wins, but also by Adrian Peterson fumbling the ball constantly, Drew Brees melting down in the fourth quarter of must win games, and Kurt Warner looking ancient in awful losses to the Eagles and Patriots.  In the end, everything broke Manning's way, and he captured his third MVP award.  We eagerly chronicled the chase every step of the way because 2008 was Manning's greatest season and because we knew in our hearts the 2008 were a flawed, broken team that had no real title shot.  Rooting for Manning to win the MVP award was all we really had. The award was a recognition of how great 18 was and just how weak that team was.

Now a year later, Manning is again in the conversation for MVP along with Favre and Brees.  Apparently, that's the new MVP formula:  Manning, Brees, and some really old QB having a nice year.  Still, we've barely discussed the issue, and you won't find any impassioned pleas here today.  Do I think Manning is the MVP?  Of course I do.  But there's two reasons not to worry about it yet.  First is that there's too much of the season to play out.  It's simply too early to talk MVP.  I have a feeling the issue will clarify itself dramatically in the coming weeks.  Second, there are bigger issues this season.  The 2009 Colts are a Super Bowl caliber team.  All focus is on the entire team, as it should be. The MVP race is a distant second behind what could be the most spectacular regular and post season in NFL history.  We have GREAT teams.  We have living legends playing at the peak of their powers.  The NFL has never been better than it is right now

Here are the cases for the top four MVP candidates and what they have to do to win the award in the final five weeks.  Please note, this isn't how I would vote, just how I see the race shaping up.  Don't argue with me that so and so is too low or too high based on any sane reason.  This is how I think the media who votes will see things:

1.  Brett Favre

The case for:  a 10-1 record, 24 TDs and 3 picks, a 112 rating.  Say what you will, it's hard to argue with those numbers.  Currently 5-0 verses the NFC North (4-2 last year).

The case against:  Took over a 10 win team from last year.  The Vikings also added Percy Harvin and have gone from 32nd in Special Teams to first this year.  None of that has anything to do with Favre.  Oh, and there's this running back they have that I've heard is sort of talented.  Favre joined a stone cold stacked team.  He's playing great, but the Vikes probably won't finish more than 3 or 4 games better with him than without him.

What he has to do to win:  If he keeps his rating north of 105, and finishes the final five games with a TD/INT ratio of 2:1, and the Vikes go at least 4-1, he'll almost assuredly win.  Manning or Brees would have to lead their team to an undefeated season to beat him out.  The hype is only going to escalate from here.  However, if the Vikes go 3-2 and Farve throws some picks, the window is open for another player.  I'm not saying I like it, I'm just saying this is the reality of 2009.  It's about Favre until it isn't.

2.  Peyton Manning

The case for:  6 fourth quarter comebacks, an 11-0 record, a rating of 102.5, leads the league in completion percentage and yards, doesn't have a great running game, breaking in two young receivers, has a rookie head coach. He scares the living hell out of Bill Belichick.

The case against:  He won last year (a very lame, but VERY real reason).  He has thrown 6 picks in his last three games.  As great as he is, this season lacks the epic "I'm willing this team to win" vibe that he had last season.  He also didn't beat the Packers twice.

What he has to do to win:  Finish 16-0 and/or break Ken Anderson's single season completion percentage record of 70.5% (currently he's at 70.4%).  He must lead the league in passing yards, and needs a TD/INT ratio of 3:1 over the final five games.  Manning can still pull this out, but he'll have to play off the charts down the stretch to do it.  He's still topping a lot of MVP boards, but the perception is that the Colts are about to go into shell mode.  This feels like 2005 all over again.  Manning had the award locked with 12 weeks to go, but taking the air out of the ball killed that.  Honestly, that's what I expect to happen this year.

3. Drew Brees

The case for:  11-0.  Huge numbers, including leading the NFL in passer rating.  A perfect game on MNF over the Pats (possibly the best modern passing game in history).  There's a sense that it's 'his turn'.

The case against:  Massive talent surrounding him. The Saints have a great run game this year, and he has a bevy of talented players and a coach with a wide open style.  He's never won a Super Bowl so people don't take his regular season numbers as seriously (don't ask me what that has to do with anything, but trust me, it does).

What he has to do to win: Finish 16-0.  He's already done everything else.  If the Saints win out, Brees is the MVP.  If the Colts and Saints both win out...I think Manning takes it.  Since I don't expect Indy to play for 16-0, I think Brees can win the award with a perfect season.  Otherwise, I can't see him leap frogging Favre.

4.  Chris Johnson

The case for:  Leads the NFL in rushing.  Three 85 yard TD runs in a season is more than any player has had in his entire career.  He is an explosive dominant player on a hard charging team.

The case against:  He's a running back.  His team is 5-6.  He's a boom/bust guy.  Lots of long runs, but his success rate is 28th in the NFL.  That makes for gaudy numbers, but an inflated 'true value'.

What he has to do to win:  If the big three play soft down the stretch, and he rushes for 2000 yards AND the Titans win 10 games and make the playoffs, Chris Johnson could win the MVP award.  In the immortal words of George W. Bush, "Nah gah dah".

In watching the tape of Sunday's game, it's hard not to notice the massive difference between the Indy blitz in the first half and the second half.

By my count, the Colts blitzed 7 times in the first half.  5 of the 7 lead to positive plays for the Texans.  Indy blitzed 6 men three times, with two of the three ending poorly for the Colts.  A Colts' blitz reguarly ended in a big gain for the Texans.

In the second half, the Colts blitzed 8 times, but 5 of the 8 ended well, including two of the key plays of the game: Clint Session's interception and Mathis's strip sack.  In fact, most of the negative second half blitzes for the Colts occurred on the final Texans drive after the game was decided and the DBs were playing loose, and one of those was simply the result of an excellent athletic play by Schaub to escape good pressure.

So in all, I tallied a total of 15 blitzes, with 7 successful attempts.  That's not a great percentage overall, but it's clear the blitz was effective in the second half as it caused two huge turnovers.

Here are my observations as to why the blitz was more effective in the second half:

• In the second half, it seems like the Colts were told to ignore the P/A fakes.  On one play in particular, a blitzing Session totally ignores a fake hand off and stays right on Schaub, forcing him to throw the ball away to avoid a safety.  It may just be that the Colts decided they weren't going to let Schaub beat them through the air.  The Texans really got away from the run.  It's one of the reasons I felt like they panicked.
  

• On a couple of plays, the difference was all Mathis.  He got home on a couple of plays where the Colts blitzed.  Sometimes, the blitz helped occupy the back who would have doubled him (like on his strip sack), but at least once, he just whipped his man straight up.  Robert Mathis played an incredible game and was all over the field in the second half.

• The Colts disguised the blitzer better in the second half.  They frequently ran Brackett and Session up to the line and rotated which one actually came.  This was the key move in Session's pick.  He faked blitz (Brackett did blitz) and dropped into coverage.  Brackett got doubled, which let the DT get in on Schaub who threw quickly to his right.  He never recognized that Session had dropped into coverage, and Clint took it to the house.  At other times, the Colts would show blitz and only rush three men.  This seemed to frustrate Schaub into making bad decisions.

The blitz is a mixed bag.  It does lead to good plays for the offense, more often than not, but when it works, the result can be a game changing turnover.  You'll never see the two edged sword of the blitz illustrated more starkly than in the first and second halves of last Sunday's game.

Normally, I wouldn't put this on the front page, but the FO numbers for WRs through week 12 are out, and they confirm what we've all seen the last couple of weeks:

Pierre Garcon has been playing well.

Specifically, his DVOA (the per-play rating of how above or below average a player is) is up to -0.8%.

In essence that means that for the year, Frenchy is an average NFL wide reciever.

Why celebrate that?  Because for most of the year he has hovered around -15% (15% worse than an average NFL wideout).  For him to get his yearly total back to virtually zero means he's been playing very well for a couple of weeks now.  His catch rate is up to 53% (after bottoming out at 47%).

Garcon has been great in back to back games, and his play is clearly on the rise.  I'm very happy for him.

 

It's been a long time, but an early 18to88.com staple is back.  The Vince Young Files have returned!

One of the things that caused us to start this blog was our annoyance over the media heaping praise on players who didn't deserve it.  Vince Young became the poster boy for our angst.  We went to great lengths to point out that there is no such thing as a QB who "just wins" in the NFL.  There are bad QBs on good teams, and good QBs on bad teams, but for the most part "making plays" and "moxie" are just lazy ways to explain success without having to do any real analysis.

And so we began The Vince Young Files.  The more the Titans won, the more credit VY got, and the more insane it drove us.  My personal favorite was Volume 2, where we demolished CHFF's fawning over Mister Young.  Our official motto was "We don't hate Vince Young.  We just think he's crazy overrated".  Alas, the rest of the world finally figured out that VY couldn't play, rendering our bold claims and research mundane.  Now, it seems those old articles serve only to keep the flame of the homemade 18to88.com pages alive.

Yet, suddenly and without warning (unless you count getting drubbed by the Patriots 59-0 as a 'warning'), Vince Young stormed back into our lives.  This past Sunday he was particuarly Youngian.  He led a 99 yard TD drive and converted 3 fourth downs in the final minutes to lead the Titans to a win.  Of course, had he not screwed up the end of the first half, the Titans could have just kicked a short field goal and won the game a lot easier.  Ah, but VY giveth and VY taketh away.  Such is the glory of a guy who "just wins"!

Given that the Colts play the Titans this week, it seemed like a perfect time to examine the turnaround by the Titans and figure out exactly what has transpired to turn their fortunes around.  The results suprised me.  In the end, I'm glad VY is back.  He's always fun to write about.

Interesting email today from Hans Stieger.

He is in the process of trying to visit all 31 NFL stadiums (the Jets and Giants share digs, if you'll recall).  Hans has already been to Indy once, and this week he's making a return trip to check out the Luke.

He's looking for a great place to hang with the locals and tailgate.  We've never been big tailgaters ourselves, so if anyone out there has any good suggestions for Hans, put them in the comments of this post.  I'll direct him to check them.

My own stadium journey is a pretty short one. Other than RCA and the Luke, I've been to Soldier Field, Riverfront, Three Rivers, and No One Cares About the Jags Enough to Pay for Naming Rights Field.  I've been to four road games, and our Trip to the Hole was the only winning one.

No matter how hard I try to wrap my mind around the win today, I just can't.

Some things just shouldn't happen.

Today, the Colts posted a comeback unlike any of the their others.  They beat a desperate team, on the road, without Freeney, after playing like crap for a half.  They had the Texans scared even while trailing big. I've never seen anything quite like it.  Wins like this just don't happen in the NFL.

Reasons to Smile:

• Pierre Garcon.  Great catches left and right.  Manning is throwing to him more judiciously, and he's making plays.  The last two weeks he seems to be a good deal more comfortable.  He's making important catches.  Great game, Frenchy.
• Austin Collie rebounding to make big plays in the fourth quarter.  He shrugs off the negative plays (not going OB, stupid holding penalty) and shows up large.
• 2:50 seconds to go 90 yards to take the lead.  Manning is an assassin. 
  
• Larry Coyer's halftime adjustments.  He seems to have a knack for figuring out what is wrong with the defense and correcting it on the fly.  In the first half, the Colts forced just THREE third downs.  In the second half, they forced three turnovers.  That's all you need to know about  how good a job he did. 
  
• Joe Addai.  Big runs all day.  That fourth down run was incredible.
  
• Clint Session.  If he doesn't go to the Pro Bowl, it'll be a crime.
• Pat McAfee.  He is KILLING the kickoffs.  There is zero mystery how the Colts have improved their kick coverage.  They got a guy who routinely puts it deep in the endzone. 
  
• Robert Mathis.  All he does is make huge play after huge play.  He picked up another sack despite Freeney being out.  He stands on his own.
• Chad Simpson's hard running at the end of the game.  He doesn't get many carries, but he makes the most of them.
• Tamme's heady play to bat the onside kick out of bounds.  He did a great job understanding the rules.

Reasons to Frown:

• The O-line was a mess at times.  Two sacks and a 'hit as he throws pick' were ugly.  Two of the Colts' first three drives ended due to bad line play.
• The first half defense.  Seriously, 3 third downs?  Awful.  It reminded me of the infamous Jacksonville game.  The Texans moved the ball at will. It was the worst half of football from a Colts defense in a long time. 
  
• Matt Stover missing the short field goal.  How incredible is it that this didn't cost the Colts?  It felt like one of those, "We just have too many guys hurt" moments. 
  
• Chad Simpson returning kicks.  Wow.  Not good.  TJ Rushing fielding a punt at the five.  Not good either.  I see no evidence our special teams play is actually better.  I just think Indy got a better kicker.  If this was about coaching, wouldn't we see something happen in the return game?  All I see are mistakes.
• Don Brown.  Why was he not in at the end of the game?  He seemed to be running well.  Did he get hurt?  Also, he showed why he hasn't gotten more game time with that miserable job helping CJ on Mario Williams.  You have to block to play, son.
• Phil Wheeler's first half.  He made some nice plays in the second half, but looked lost in the first.  This might have been part of what Coyer corrected.  I'll have to check the tape.
• The lack of pressure in the first half without Freeney was scary.  Fortunately, the blitzes landed a little better later in the game, but we need 93 to get healthy.  He was also missed on the Texans' final drive.
  

Best Call:

Going for it on fourth and inches.  This was the call I've been waiting for all season.  Wonderful.  Stover's miss meant it didn't lead to points, but it's just what you have to do in the NFL.  Great job, Coach.

Worst Call:

It's a nit picky tie.  First, why didn't Caldwell challenge the horrid spot on that very same fourth down?  It looked like Clark had it easy, but that was a terrible spot.  It looked like it would have been an easy challenge.  Secondly, I hated the play call (run wide) on fourth down.  Addai made it happen, but it took a spectacular play by him.  Whatever.  I'm just glad he went for it.

Reasons I'm Flying:

• An AFC South Championship.
  
• The Colts can clinch the #1 seed by going just 3-2 over their final five games.  With three home games, and not a single world beater on the board, there's every reason to assume this is going to happen.
• 15-1 verses the Texans all time.
• Yet another miracle comeback.  I get the feeling this team just expects to win these kinds of games.  That's a good place to be.
• This team can still get better.  In no way does it feel like they are peaking yet.
• Manning made some throws that make me feel like his arm is fine. The rifle shot to Garcon was incredible.

Reasons I'm Dying:

• I've seen life without Dwight Freeney.  I don't like it.
• The defense was so horrid for a half, I was terrified it might never recover.  Unlike the NE game where it seemed like the scheme was wrong, this looked like players were just overmatched and out played.  It was much  more unsettling than even the 24 points allowed to New England.  They looked like they were never going to figure out how to slow the Texans.
  
• The Chargers are playing very well.  We really need NE/SD to finish 2 and 3.  I don't want to play both of them.

The Bottom Line:

The Texans folded.  Yes, the Colts were poised and took advantage of the opportunity, but I've never seen a team just stone cold collapse like Houston came up with today.  From Schaub's first pick on, they played like they expected the Colts to beat them.  It was a gutless effort from the Texans and surely has to signal the end of Gary Kubiak era in Houston.  I'm proud of my team, but they got a lot of help today.  The Texans made stupid turnovers and stupid penalties down the stretch.  They are a talented team, but simply don't have the will to win.

The Colts on the other hand refuse to beat themselves.  Once again, coming down the stretch, they were the calm, collected team, and they let the Texans play themselves right out of the game.

11-0.  Perfect.

There are still 8 games left (hopefully) in the season.  That is a long way to go.  The next three games are likely against equally desperate teams, right now the Colts shouldn't worry about anything except playing their best football.  That's something the NFL hasn't seen yet this year.

Be afraid, AFC.  Be very afraid.

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PREGAME:

Charlie Johnson is active for this game, so I suppose that's some good news.

FIRST QUARTER:

• Huzzah!  The Texans get the ball first, but my enthusiasm is short lived.  The Texans converted a key third and 1 early, but never faced another third down the rest of drive.  The Texans convert a 79 yard TD drive that takes up 6: 30.  7-0 Texans.  There's a reason I thought they'd win today.
• The Colts pick up a first down, but the drives stalls as Diem gives up a huge sack on third down.  Ironically, I was chatting with Demond at that precise moment that this game feels like a 20 point loss and that Manning was about to get sacked.  Let's hope I'm only half right.
• Dwight Freeney matters, people.  This team is dead on its feet, and the rout is on.  The Texans never even get forced into a third down. Schaub is 8 for 8.  14-0 Texans.  This game isn't going to get better any time soon.  There are just too many missing/banged up parts to beat a good and desperate team at home.  The offense desperately needs an answer and fast.
• The offense starts inside the 20 after a lackluster return by Simpson.  The offense moved the ball effectively to end the quarter, but face a 1st and 20 after Collie picks up a stupid holding penalty.  The quarter ends with the Colts trailing 14-0.  Not much has gone right. Things have to turn around and fast.  Forcing a third down would be a start.
  

SECOND QUARTER:

• Manning throws a horrible pick as he's hit as he throws.  Texans ball deep in Colts territory.  The Colts can't protect Manning at all.  There's not going to be any comeback today.
  
• The Colts dodge a bullet of sorts as Johnson drops a pass in the end zone.  The D finally forces a third down, and a Houston false start helps kill the drive.  Field goal is good 17-0.  I suppose that's reason for hope.
• The Colts start at the 25 desperately looking to get something going. The Horse drives quickly into scoring position, helped by a personal foul on the Texans.  Addai has a couple of nice runs and a nice catch, and Frenchy makes an incredible catch on third down to get the Colts back on the board.  The Texans lead 17-7, but the defense will have to actually start forcing third downs before I get too excited.  Still, that was a huge drive, and there is plenty of time.
• The Texans start at the 20, as the defense desperately seeks a stop of any kind.  They don't get it.  They don't even force a third down until the Texans had already taken the ball inside the 15 yard line.  The Texans drive finally stalls as Johnson and Schaub miscommunicate.  Brown nails the field goal, and the Colts have a minute to work with.  They also get the ball to start the second half, so a field goal here would loom large.  All you need to know about the defense this half is 4 Texans drives, 2 TDs, 2 FGs, only 3 third downs.  Awful.
• The Colts are a mess right now.  Collie screws up royally by not getting out of bounds.  Manning then throws a pick as he and Wayne screw up the route.  20-7 Texans.

HALFTIME:

What do you want me to say?  This team is playing horrible on both sides of the ball.  Can the Colts score a TD to start the second half?  Sure.  That would make it a one score game.  Can the Defense get the Texans off the field?  I doubt it.

THIRD QUARTER:

• Geeze, the Colts catch a HUGE break as Garcon picks up a PI on the Texans call on a deep ball.  The dicey 43 yard penalty gave the Colts the ball on the 19.  They got first and goal inside the 10, and another  PI call gave the Colts first and goal at the one.  On third down from the four (after Addai gets killed on second down), Manning hits Wayne for a score.  It's 20-14 Colts, and if the defense can find any kind of life, we might just have a game.  That was a weird drive.
• The Texans pick up a huge special teams penalty off the kick off that starts them deep in their own territory.
• WOOOOOOW!  Schaub throws an AN AWFUL PICK.  Bethea makes an incredible spinning pick, and the Colts have the ball with a chance to take the lead.  I'm dumbfounded.  That was a horrible play for the Texans, and an incredible catch by Bethea.  The Texans were moving the ball easily on the Colts, but that was a massive turnover.
• The Colts complete a pass, but Brown and CJ screw up blocking Mario Williams, and Manning takes a huge sack on first down.  The Colts have no chance to pick up another first down.  For everyone who thinks we were overplaying the value of Addai's blocking and wondering why Brown doesn't play more...you have your answer.  The only good news is that McAfee CRUSHES the kick.  Texans' ball at the 10.
• The Texans have fear in their eyes.  A near safety, a short run, a false start and a give up screen add up for a punt.  Wow.  This game has turned 100%.  What's really creepy is how Schaub had ALL DAY to throw on third down and gave up.  I think that last pick is in his head.  Again, the offense will have the ball at the 35 with a chance to take the lead.  Even a field goal here would be a huge step forward.
• Manning hits Clark for what looked like a sure first down, but after a terrible spot, the Colts were forced to go for it on fourth and inches.  Addai makes an incredible run for the first down to keep the chains moving. DeVan picks up a hold a couple of plays later, however, and it would have killed the drive, but Manning hits Frenchy who takes a HUGE hit, but hangs on for a first down.  Garcon has been incredible for two weeks now.  The quarter ends with the Colts scratching the Texans 25 yard line.  This has been a huge drive.  20-14 Houston at the end of three.

FOURTH QUARTER:

• The drive stalls.  A dead run, and two incomplete passes end the drive as Manning misses Collie on third down. Stover yanks the kick.  No score.  20-14 it stays.
• The defense holds again.  After a quick Texans first down, they effectively swarm the Texans into a punt thanks to a nice blitz on third down.  Rushing fields a punt inside the 10, and Indy has to go 90 yards to take the lead.  The missed FG looms large as the clock winds down near 10 minutes to play.
• COLTS LEAD!  MVPEYTON.  Manning drives the Horse 90 yards in what felt like 10 seconds.  Incredible deep ball to Collie, and nice running by Brown and Addai, and the drive is capped off by a TD pass to Clark.  Incredible.  I'm speechless.
• CLINT SESSION TO THE HOUSE!  Unbelievable.  28-20 Horse.  This team is unlike anything I've ever seen.  There are no words.
• ROBERT MATHIS!  STRIP SACK!  COLTS BALL!  COLTS BALL!  It's time to just run the ball and end this game.
• CHAD SIMPSON FOR 6!  The Texans have quit folks.  100% quit.  I'd fire Kubiak tomorrow. This was embarrassing.
• The Texans take a year and a day to finally get back in the endzone.  They'll have an onside kick with :18 seconds and one timeout remaining
• Tamme smacks the ball out of bounds on the onside kick.  Indy ball.  Game over.

Let me just end this live blog by saying how stunned I am.  I've seen lots of comebacks by the Colts, but this...this was unreal because of how badly they played in the first half.  Last year's Houston comeback was afluky kind of win, with two Texans turnovers making all the difference.  This was something else entirely.  The defense, which could not have played worse in the first half, took over the game in the second half, with the big players (Bethea, Session, Mathis) making big plays.  Did I think it was possible.  No.  It's not that I didn't believe in the offense, I just couldn't accept the defense could turn it around without Freeney.

How wrong I was.