Well, hey, hey. Haven't we just hit the big time now?

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It's a great time to be a Colts fan.  I hope 18to88 has made the season a little bit brighter, or at least a little nerdier.

After a couple of incredible days away with my wife, I'm back and ready to recap last night's thriller.  I have an inbox full of mail and suggested links, so I'll try and spend the next couple of hours catching everything up.  To start, let's look back at the high drama that was last night.

Reasons to Smile:

• There's nothing wrong with Peyton.  So much for the "he's nursing an injury" theory.  Granted, most of his throws were short last night, but when it came time to cut one lose, he dropped a beautiful ball into Reggie Wayne for one of the sickest game winners I've ever seen.  #18 was incredible last night, stone cold doing it all and making as loud and definitive an MVP case as you'll ever see.  There was never a question the Colts were going to score points last night.  Throughout the game, it was always only a question of whether or not the D would get the stops.  Watching Manning moving his backs around to pick up blitzes is one of life's rare pleasures.
  
• Reggie Wayne keeps his mouth shut and makes huge plays in fourth quarter after fourth quarter.  No D can ever be satisfied with the work done on him until after the game is over, because just when you think he's quiet, he makes a few plays down the stretch to seal it.  He doesn't let frustration show.  He just grinds away.  Always a brilliant Colt, he's made himself beloved this season.
• Dallas Clark makes mistakes from time to time, but no one makes up for them more often.  His bobbled almost cost the Colts the game, but he game back with an inspired effort to give them back the lead.
• Eric Foster's effort was tremendous.  His second sack was a huge play.  The Colts didn't get much pressure on Garrard all night, but what they did came from Foster.
• The D had a rough night, but they still managed to play credible against the run.  MJD had a big game with 110 yards, but barely topped 4 yards a carry.  In fact, until his final draw for 10 yards, the Colts had held him to 100 yards on 26 carries.  I'll take that against him any day.  His center of gravity is so low, it's nearly impossible to stop him for a loss.  The Colts did a great job hitting him at or near the line, but he just burrowed down for an extra yard or two.  I can live with that performance.
• Nice work by the O line.  Granted, the Jags are a HORRIBLE pass rushing team, and Manning still had to move around in the pocket, but he didn't get sacked and had time to check to his third or fourth read on several plays.
• Collie blocking downfield.
• No points allowed in the fourth quarter.  I know Mathis and Freeney didn't make any huge plays, but did you notice how much better the D looked once they started playing every down late in the game?
• Chad Simpson.  That's five touchbacks worth, buddy! Incredible blocking on that play.  No one laid a hand on him.
• The look of desire and frustration on Freeney's face.  He wanted to be playing.
• Jennings almost sealing the game with a spectacular pick.

Reasons to Frown

• Did you see that pass rush with 98 and 93 on the bench?  That was the 2007 San Diego game all over again.  Coyer dialed up every conceivable blitz, but nothing landed in time.  Freeney is the second most important player on the Colts.  When he's not there, it shows.  You could see it on run downs where Dawson couldn't get off his block to chase down MJD wide.  Freeney changes everything.
• Catch that ball Hayden.  Almost cost us the game.
• That was a well officiated game, but the spot on Garrard's fourth down sneak looked awful to me.  I don't see how they gave it to him.
• Kickoffs and punts were a mess.  As Demond mentioned, it seemed like the turf was chewed up.  I'll give McAfee a mulligan.
• What was Jennings doing on that TD pass he allowed?  Awful job.
• Foster's false start.  The O picked up the 11 yards it needed.  Too bad Foster made them need 15.

Best Call:

Letting Mathis and Freeney loose in the fourth quarter.  All of a sudden, there was a rush with four.  Garrard didn't go down but once, but he felt it and started to spray the ball all over the field.  Those two change everything.

Worst Call:

Third and 9 from the Jag's 48 with just under 8 to play, Manning throws toward the sticks to Clark.  HATE the play call.  Instead of playing four down football and trying to pick up 5 or 6, they went for the first.  The Colts had no choice but to punt on fourth down, but I would like to have seen them in 'four down' mode from the start.  It worked out in the end, but I didn't like the tought process.

Reasons I'm Flying:

• This was a repeat of last year's game with two exceptions:  1.  The Jags are better.  2.  The game didn't matter to the Colts.  That's a sign of improvement when you up the other guy's motivation, decrease yours, sit your two best defenders for long stretches and still produce the same result.
• MVP #4.  Brees still has his chance to make his statement, but this is officially a two man race.  Someone with New Orleans ties is winning this award.
• 14-0.  Just...wow. 
  
• As great a game as that was last night, it was arguably not in the top three Colts' games this year.  The New England game is first.  I think the Dolphins game was at least that good, and the Houston comeback was incredible.  At some point, you just have to throw up your hands and be joyful to watch the most exciting team in football.
• 10 days off.  As hard as the call was to play people against the Jags, the extra time should make it an easy call for the Jets game.  The rest is built in.  I'm not calling for an all out blitz for 16-0, but I've always thought they needed to play hard through the 15th game.  I'm sure they will.  This team is hungry.

Reasons I'm Dying:

• I've seen life without the pass rushers, and I don't like it. 
  
• That's it.  Nothing else.  Freeney and Mathis play every down last night, and the D would have looked 1000% better.  The offense is on fire.  I'm not worried about anything.  Injuries are my only fear.

The Bottom Line:

San Francisco would be 7-6, battling for a playoff spot.

Houston would be 7-6 tied for the last playoff spot.

New England would be 9-4, very much alive for a bye.

Baltimore would be 8-5, a game up on every other wild card contender

Houston could be 8-5, controlling their own destiny.

Tennessee would be 7-6, tied for the last playoff spot and riding a seven game win streak.

Denver would be 9-4, battling for the division crown, even a bye.

Jacksonville would be 8-6, and in control for the last playoff spot and a chance to save NFL football in North Florida.

Each of those teams needed to beat the Colts more than the Colts needed to beat them.  Every single one lost.  We've forgotten some of them were even contenders once, mostly because Indianapolis declared that they weren't.  Indy has played a gauntlet of 8 games against desperate teams.  Six times teams with everything on the line had the Colts on the mat in the fourth quarter.

They all lost.  In the fourth quarter of those 8 games, the Colts out scored their opponents by a total of 79-39.  That's basically the equivalent of two 40-20 wins scored against a collection desperate playoff caliber teams.

14-0.

Wow.

Welcome to week 15 of the NFL season.  The Indianapolis Colts are looking to start the 2009 season with 14 consecutive victories.  That would set the franchise record.

• Freeney and Mathis are active and in the starting lineup. PK is reading my mind about playing Freeney and Mathis primarily on third down.
• We don't usually discuss odds, but I found it interesting that the Colts are giving 3 points.  They line opened at -6 which means the general public bet heavily on the Jags.
• FYI:  My win streak beard is getting huge.  If the Colts go 19-0 I'll be a dude with a HUGE beard and a new tattoo.  Sweet.
• Anyone else notice how Jason Whitlock just mysteriously stopped writing his NFL Truths column for FoxSports.com?  I guess you know a column is in trouble when its readers check back weekly to see how wrong it will be...
• Not sure why I am nervous about a meaningless game.  That right there tells me it must mean something.

First Quarter

1.)  MJD is deep to receive.  The Jags will start at the 27.  Jones for 5 yards.  Bullitt, Hayden, Lacey are all out there.  Brock stuffs Mojo for no gain on second down.  GET THEM OFF THE FIELD!!  Freeney is in.  Offsides.  Stupid penalty.  Declined as the Jags had the yardage anyway on the quick toss to Sims-Walker.  First down.  Garrard to MJD for one.  Hayden comes from the outside to tackle Mojo for a gain of four.  BIG THIRD DOWN.  Another conversion to Sims-Walker.  Lacey had the coverage.  MJD for 7.  Jennings for 1.  Keyunta Dawson injured on the play.  Return is probable.  Hmmm.  Yet another third down:  Sims-Walker again.  Long drive by the Jags.  Garrard to Miller for 6.  MJD for 3.  ANOTHER THIRD DOWN CONVERSION?  Nope.  Strip sack for FOSTER.  Scobee hits from 50 after the Colts fail to recover the fumble.  Jaguars lead 3 - 0.

2.)  Simpson takes a knee in the endzone after mishandling the kickoff.  Addai in the backfield.  Stretch right for a couple.  CJ is in.  Diem as well.  Manning to Addai for 4.  Third down and 4 yards to gain:  Garcon for three yards.  BUT THEY GIVE HIM FORWARD PROGRESS.  Addai is stuffed on the quick snap to avoid a challenge.  Loss of 3.  Clark for 5.  Third down and 8 yards to gain:  Manning buys time and hits Garcon for 11 and the first.  Collie around end for 2 rushing yards.  Addai for 4.  Third down and 4 yards to gain:  Manning holds and holds and Clark comes free across the middle for 20.  Addai on the pitch right for 6.  Clark for 11 and a first down.  First and Ten from the Jags' eleven.  Addai for 1.  Hole closed quickly.

Second Quarter

1.)  Pressure and Manning hits Addai for 4.  Third down and four yards to gain:  TOUCHDOWN.  Manning SQUEEZES one in to Clark.  Great throw.  Great catch.  He put it the only place where it wouldn't be a pick.  Ball bounced around on Clark's chest like he was Aaron Bailey laying on the ground in Pittsburgh.  Colts lead 7 - 3.

2.)  Squib kick.  Poorly done by McAfee.  Jags will start at the 39.  Offsides on Brock.  1st and 5.  MJD for 2.  Incomplete for Holt.  Hayden with tight coverage.  THIRD DOWN:  Blitz is picked up.  Garrard to Thomas.  First down.  Garrard seemed to be setting up a screen -- forced to roll out and throw.  Broken up by Session.  MJD for 14.  Poor angle by Bullitt.  Jennings for 5.  MJD for 6 and a first.  Jags at the Colts 21.  Can't have those poor kickoffs.  MJD for 8.  Garrard to Sims-Walker for 5.  First and goal from the 8.  MJD loses 1, Hayden on the play.  Touchdown.  Garrard scrambles and finds Drew who has beaten Session.  Tough to defend a guy that long.  Again, I go back to the poor kickoff.  Jaguars lead 10-7.

3.)  NO WAY.  #35 HOUSES IT.  WOW.  WOW.  WOW.   YES -- THAT JUST HAPPENED.  CHAD SIMPSON.  (Sweet camera angle btw).  Colts lead 14 - 10.

4.)  As the announcers alluded to:  Tonight's T.O.P. smacks of the Dolphins game in week two.  We'll take it, though.  Also, the high scoring game we've been predicting is coming true.  Jags will start at the 29.  Play action fake and Garrard hits MJD for 5.  The pressure doesn't land and Garrard hits Lewis for 24.  Jennings for 5.  This doesn't look like the Indy defense, thus far.  Freeney and Mathis have a lot to do with that.  They aren't playing.  Jennings for 3.  Third and 2:  MJD for 9.  Hayden drops a pick in the endzone.  Hit him in the hands.  MJD for 10.  Bullitt takes another questionable angle.  Jennings for 9.  GASHING THEM NOW.  MJD picks up the first.  Touchdown.  Really no excuses for that drive.  (Except that whole playing a Thursday night game after an extremely physical game on Sunday thing.  Remind anyone of last year's game in Jacksonville?) Jaguars lead 17 - 14.

5.)  Three timeouts.  2:52 on the clock.  Colts start at the 32.  Squib kicks suck.  Addai for 15.  WAYNE NEARLY SPLITS THE SEAM!!  Picks up 22 yards on the crossing route -- down to the Jags 31.  Bubble screen to Wayne for 8.  Addai for 5 into the red zone.  Collie loses 5.  Under one minute to play.  Using a ton of clock (which is smart).  TOUCHDOWN.  Manning steps up and hit Austin Collie down the seam on the skinny post.  Double clutched it.  35 seconds to play. Colts lead 21 - 17.

6.)  Poor coverage.  Field looks iffy.  Jags start at the 41 with :27 to play and three timeouts.  Freeney and Mathis force Garrard out of bounds for 5.  19 seconds.  Garrard to Lewis for 10.  Timeout with 12 seconds to play in the half.  Garrard to Jennings for 5.  39 yard line.  7 seconds.  YOU KNOW THIS IS MONEY.  Nope.  Not a chance on the 56 yard attempt.  Frankly I'm shocked he missed it.  Bethea can't make anything out of the return.

Halftime

This has been the type of game most of us were expecting.  The Colts defense has look tired.  Not blaming them, obviously.  I agree with Polian that Thursday night games are border-line criminal by the NFL which claims to care about its players.  The 53 man roster MUST BE EXPANDED.  Scary to think of what the Indy D would look like if they had rested players.  Although, in fairness, #98 and #93 have played sparingly.  Marshall Faulk is correctly pointing out that MJD and #18 are going off.  No surprise.  Good to see Reggie getting active there at the end of the half.

Third Quarter

1.)  There's Chad Simpson!  Colts start at their own 18.  Not sure the field is in the best condition.  Lots of poor kicking.  Addai for 1.  Addai for 2.  Don't see two runs in a row much.  That's why.  Tamme for 8!!  Holy crap -- what a throw!  Addai far right for 3 yards.  Hmm... the run blocking is streaky at best.  Picked off.  Terrible effort by Clark.  Dude.  Horrible.  Horrible.  That could be the game.  Seriously.  Seems like A BOATLOAD of tipped ball picks by Manning this year.  Someone care to go back and count them all?

2.)  Jags start at the Indy 40.  MJD for 3.  Wilford drops it on second down.  BIG THIRD DOWN.  MJD for 6.  BIG FOURTH DOWN.  Converted by Garrard.  MJD for no gain.  Garrard hits Lewis for 14.  MJD loses one to the Indy 16 yard line.  Foster with pressure and Garrard puts it over everything incomplete.  Will the Colts streak of not allowing a TD after a turnover end?  Yes.  There will be some angry and embarrassed defenders on the flight home. Jaguars lead 24 - 21.

3.)  Dallas Clark's critical error has swung the game in Jacksonville's favor.  Disappointing to say the least.  Colts start at the 20.  Hart for 3 on the pitch left.  Footing may be an issue?  Manning tipped incomplete.  Insane throw to Wayne.  Just wow.  Dude makes a grown man cry.  Another stab by Reggie!  NBA Jam voice:  He's heating up!  Addai for 5 on first down.  Collie for 7 and the conversion.  Inside the 30.  TOUCDOWN!  Clark atones by staying on his feet down the seam.  Manning is re-living last year's performance (which I thought was his finest ever perhaps).  Colts lead 28 - 24.

4.)  Kick coverage has been poor tonight.  They look like the '02 to '08 coverage units.  Jaguars start at the Indy 46.  MJD for 2.  Garrard to Holt for 7.  Two plays to pick up 1 yard.  MJD gets it.  No signs of stopping Jacksonville tonight.  Blitz by Session, Bullit and Bracket.  Nope -- gain of 17 to Holt, into the red zone.  MJD for no gain.  MJD takes it inside the 10 from Garrard.  Last team with the ball wins?  Probably.  False start.  1st and goal from the 13.  Brock nearly gets to Garrard.  Incomplete.  Didn't buy the run fake.  At all.  LACEY NEARLY.  BIG THIRD DOWN COMING:  Touchdown.  Can't land the blitz (yet again).  Jaguars lead 31 - 28.

5.)  Rushing takes it out to the 22.  Addai for 2.  Hits Robinson for 5 yards.

Fourth Quarter

1.)  DZ asks:  remember when this was every Colts game?  Big third down and 3 yards to gain.  Incomplete.  Punt.  Holding.  I'm arguing with my wife for no reason which means it is a good time to give the game blog a rest.  Be back later.  Maybe.  (If I don't come back:  this one is on Dallas Clark and the D).

Summary: Reggie and Manning decide the game with a terrific play.  Lacey does his part with an athletic-looking pick to seal it.  DZ notes that the Colts shut the Jags out in the 4Q.  Really a pretty gutty performance by a host of guys.  Tim Jennings nearly made the play of his career on a key stop.  Couldn't have been easy.  He also notes the TERRIBLE false start by Foster on the final Indy possession.  That's an unforgivable penalty if this is the playoffs.  DZ points out that the Colts picked up 11 yards on that sequence, but needed 15 because of the flag.

Umm... Manning is the MVP.  No doubt in my mind.  Only the gaffe by #44 marred his stellar performance.  Nothing like setting the NFL record for most come from behind wins in the 4Q in a season.

The Colts are 13-0 and will not play a meaningful game for a month.  We know the Colts will get a shot at perfection.  We know the Colts will host a home game on either January 16th or 17th.  We know Indy will be rested and close to full strength when the playoffs come around.  There are, however, a few things we don't know yet.

1.)  What's up with Adam Vinatieri? He started the first five games of the season, going 6 for 8.  AV has missed the past 8 games with a knee injury.  His replacement, Matt Stover has gone 9 for 11 with a long of 43.  Bill Polian has given AV the ultimate sign of (well earned) respect by keeping him on the active roster in hopes that he will be able to kick in the playoffs.

• My guess: I believe AV may have played his last game as a Colt.  On the bright side:  Matt Stover will turn 42 during the upcoming playoffs.  Because of his limited power I expect the Colts to eschew field goal tries longer than 50 yards.  Four downs for Manning.  Sweet.
  

2.) What's up with Anthony Gonzalez? He fell to the turf in pain during the first half of the 2009 opener.  We haven't seen or heard from him since.  Gonzalez has remained on the 53 man roster all season with a knee injury.  At some point along the way he suffered what Bill Polian described as a 'setback'.  This situation is reminiscent of Marvin Harrison's nightmare 2007 season.

• My guess: I can't see any way Gonzalez returns and contributes in a meaningful way.  But... what does it say about Hank Baskett that the Indy coaching staff thinks a rusty and hobbled Gonzo is worth keeping around as a potential playoff backup?  It says everything.

3.) What's up with Donald Brown? He has missed four games this season and has logged just 59 carries.  It would be unfair to label him a disappointment, but he hasn't yet lived up to his first round billing.  Colts fans, myself included, still have great faith in the kid.

• My guess: Caldwell knows how critical it is to have a potent two-back attack in the postseason.  Brown will get some work against either New York or Buffalo, and will be ready to go for the divisional round.   
  

4.)  Will the Colts finish the regular season undefeated? A lot depends on the team's performance against Jacksonville on Thursday night.  The Indy defense is coming off a physically draining game against the Broncos.  The Jaguars need this game as badly as a team can need a game.

• My guess: The Colts are going 16-0.  I think Peyton comes out firing on Thursday night because that's what Peyton does.  He shows up in primetime and clinches MVP awards.  I think the Colts beat the Jags in a fairly high scoring game.  I think the best way to handle the Jets is to play everyone.  The Jets aren't very good.  The Colts will be up big by halftime.  They can cruise to victory with the backups.  I think the Colts will beat the Bills with almost any combination of players they wish to put on the field.  It's gonna happen.
  

I've already written a piece praising Jim Caldwell's nearly flawless performance this year, and I don't want to recover the same ground today, but it's time to make the case for Caldwell as the best coaching performance in 2009.  Forget for a moment that the Coach of the Year award should go to the best coach.  It doesn't. It goes to the coach who most often out performs expectations.  That leads to some iffy winners from time to time. Past coaches of the year include: Mike Smith, Lovie Smith, Dick Jauron, Jim Haslett, Jim Fassel, Dom Capers, Ray Rhodes, Wayne Fontes, Lindy Infante (SERIOUSLY), and Jim Mora.

Jim Caldwell has excelled in every area of coaching.  His team is disciplined (fewest penalties in the NFL). He's been a good in game coach.  He hasn't lost a game...you know, little stuff like that.  Still, barring a 16-0 record, it might not be enough.  Even if Indy goes 16-0, he might not win.

This season, the prime candidates are:

Jim Caldwell, Colts:

Pros: Undefeated.  Disciplined team.  Has handled every hurdle.  Indy has had lots of injuries and young players playing more than expected, but they've been prepared and ready to play.

"Overperform Rating":  Low, but should be high.  Revisionist history says, "Of course the Colts won 12 games!  They always do!". But everyone forgets that many in the media had the Colts pegged for a 2nd place finish in the South and no more than 10 wins.  The Colts are better than people expected, but everyone has forgotten what they expected because the expectations were stupid in the first place.

Cons: He coaches Peyton Manning.  Everyone assumes Peyton runs the team anyway.  There is the perception that this is really Dungy's team and he is just a caretaker. He is quiet and doesn't play 'media games'

To win: His odds are rising.  He could win at 15-1 if the Saints don't go undefeated.  16-0 should do it though (one would hope).  Everyone has to be satisfied with how Indy finishes.

Sean Payton, Saints:

Pros:  Undefeated.  He's seen as an offensive innovator.  He's young, media friendly and dynamic.  He's taken on the 16-0 issue with gusto (which may or may not be smart, but the media likes it).  His team is considered by almost every major poll to be the best in football.  He "outcoached" Belichick on Monday Night Football.  The Saints are seen as a sympathetic story.

"Overperform Rating":  High.  The Saints were on few preseason lists as division winners let alone #1 overall seeds.  The Footballoutsiders for instance had them as an 8 win team.

Cons:  Everyone acknowledges that the biggest difference between the 08 and 09 Saints is their defense.  Gregg Williams has brought a blitzing style that has translated into massive improvement.  Payton has already won the award once.

To win: He's the odds on favorite.  16-0 would be a lock.  As long as the Saints go 2-1, he should viewed as a top choice.

Marvin Lewis, Bengals:

Pros: Bengals field one of the toughest defenses in the league, and Marvin is a defensive guy.  Swept the 'tough' AFC North for the first time in franchise history.

"Overperform Rating":  Off the charts.  The Bengals were expected to bad, mostly because they are always bad.  FO had them down for 7 wins, and they already have nine and a division title in a division with defending champs Pittsburgh and AFC finalist Baltimore.

Cons:  The Bengals are losing steam.  They've won 2 of 4 over Detroit and Cleveland, but still have to play San Diego and the Jets.  They may top out at just 10 wins.  Also, I don't think most people think Lewis is a great coach.

To win: Hope the first two guys lose a game, take the 2 seed in the AFC

Brad Childress, Vikings:

Pros:  Convinced Brett Favre to come to Minnesota

"Overperform Rating":  Low.  The Vikings are better than people thought, but they are crazy talented and won 10 games last year.  Sure the Favre thing has worked, but the Vikings were picked by many to win the division. FO had them slated to win 9 games and be a playoff contender.  They've been better than that, but not dramatically so.

Cons:  He's a terrible game manager.  He's not well respected as a coach.  If he wins, it will be a referendum on his decision to bet his career on Favre.

To win:  Win out, snake the 1 seed from the Saints (still possible, right?)

Jack Del Rio, Jaguars

Pros:  Searching...Searching....Searching...nope.  Can't think of any.  Just kidding. Has taken a young roster in a city that doesn't care and has them on the brink of the playoffs.  If they steal a spot, he could well be the winner.

"Overperform Rating": If they make the playoffs, off the scale.  The Jags aren't a good team, and everyone knew it coming in.  Ok, so the Outsiders had them down for 10 wins, but no one else did.

Cons:  Jags are fading fast.  They finish with Indy and New England and Cleveland on the road.  They won't make the playoffs and Del Rio will quickly fade as a candidate.

To win:  Make the playoffs

Josh McDaniels, Broncos

Pros: Young, Belichickian guy.  Fiery with his team.  Won the Jay Cutler showdown.  Got Brandon Marshall in line.

"Overperform Rating":  Excellent.  The Broncos were expected to be bad, but they've won 8 games already.  FO had them down for 5 wins.

Cons: Broncos started 6-0.  They've gone just 2-5 in their last 7 games.  He was the odds on favorite early, but is now just a second tier candidate.

To win: Win 11 games and the AFC West.  Hope everyone else on the list stumbles.

Jim Caldwell talks about the plan for Thursday night.

Among his comments are that they are playing this game like a normal week.  There will be no play limitations on anyone.  They are playing the game straight up.  He also mentioned that last week 7 guys couldn't practice until Thursday.  He said that this week, if that were the case, those guys wouldn't play.

He made it clear the team won't discuss their plans for future games, but they are focused on this week like any other week. That's the right strategy, of course.You play this week and worry about next week, next week.

The injury report isn't ready yet, so there's no way to know just how many guys will be "treating it like a normal week", but this should mean that Peyton and company will be on the field the whole game Thursday.

Note: This originally ran last year, but it certainly fits this week!

I can't take it any more.  It's time to set the record straight:

The Chargers don't "have the Colts number".

They don't "pose matchup problems"

Indy should not "be afraid" of them.

The Chargers are a good team. They are the second best team in the AFC.  For that reason, and that reason alone, I hope Indy doesn't play them.  However, should the matchup arise, I have no doubt the Horse will beat the Bolts in a tough, close game.  Let's examine the myths around this matchup, and you'll see why I'm confident.

Myth #1 Going back to 2005...

STOP!  Stop right there.  We aren't going back to 2005.  Why?  The Chargers are a totally different team.  They have a new coach, new QB, new defensive coordinator.  The 2009 Chargers bear NO RESEMBLANCE to the 2005 Chargers.  Why doesn't anyone go back to 2004 when Indy won?  The 2004 Chargers have just as much in common with the 2009 Chargers as that '05 squad does.  If we are going to have this discussion, let's center it on the last couple of years. I'm not sure they are relevant either, but it makes more sense than bringing up the fact that players and coaches wearing Chargers gear did something four years ago even though most of those guys aren't around anymore.

Myth #2 The Chargers have owned the Colts.

Since 2007, the Colts and Chargers have played four times. Three times the game was in San Diego. The scores:

San Diego 23, Indy 21

San Diego 28, Indy 24

Indy 23 San Diego 20

San Diego 23 Indy 17 (OT)

Yeah, see I don't think that beating a team 3 times in 4 games by a total of 12 points (with 3 home games) qualifies as "owning" anyone.  They've played four tough, close games.  Each of them could have gone the other way.  That's hardly something to sweat over.  All that list does is illustrate that the two teams play tight games. It hardly illustrates ownership.

Myth #3:  The Chargers post matchup problems for the Colts

Really?  Name one.  The only true matchup problem for Indy has been NT Jamaal Williams verses Jeff Saturday.  It has kept Indy from running the ball effectively, because Williams is a LOAD.  Saturday is a fine center, but he cannot block Williams to save his life.  Williams is now out for the season, so that's not a problem. Consider Indy's rushing numbers from the four games:  89 carries, 274 yards.  That's less than 3.1 YPC.  Take away the big load and the middle, and I would expect the Colts to be more effective moving the ball on the ground.

Take a look at the Chargers dynamic duo of Jackson and Rivers who I talk about in this week's Hangover (All right, I admit that wasn't even vaguely related to what I was writing about.  It's just a gratuitous link)

Vincent Jackson hasn't play well against the Colts: 3 games, 11 catches 174 yards

Phil Rivers has just played ok against Indy:  71/110, 873, 5 TD, 4 INT, 88.9 rating

They are the heart of the Chargers offense now, and they certainly haven't lit Indy up in the past.

Myth #4:  Manning struggles against the Chargers D.

This is a cutesy one, because he did have that one awful game in the rain when both Marv and Gonzo were out, the O line was a mess and dudes like Moorehead were running routes.  Set that game aside for a moment and look at his numbers in his last three games against San Diego:  90/134, 967 yards, 6 TDs, 3 Ints, 93.7 rating.  Indy's problem against the Chargers has been the utter lack of a run game thanks to Williams clogging the middle.  People will trot out the cumulative stats from now till Sunday, and they'll look ugly.  Any sample can be sunk by just one awful game.  The truth is Manning has been fine against San Diego.

The Truth:

Both teams have had injuries when they've met recently, but Indy's were of a particularly damaging nature.  During the first 2007 game, the Colts lost Dwight Freeney for the season.  They also played that game with O-linemen they just picked up off the street, and WRs that weren't much better.  Last year, Rivers spent all day throwing to Antonio Gates who ran wild because Gary Brackett was out.  Indy/San Diego has been a fluky weird series full of close games.  It's arguable that the 2009 Chargers are a better matchup for Indy than New England is.  The Chargers may not be afraid of the Colts, but there is certainly no reason the Colts would fear San Diego at all.

The Chargers are a good team. I'll continue to root for them to wind up in the worst possible circumstance.  That's not because of anything that happened in the past, however.  It's only about right now.

It's difficult to summarize one of the most exhausting wins in quite some time.  Sunday's game felt like a ten round heavy weight fight, but in the end, it could be exactly what the Colts need to be ready for January.  Really, it was a tremendous game for the Colts with two major exceptions.  First...

Reasons to Smile:

• Clint Session is a beast.  Every week he brings out his sledge hammer and smacks people with it for 60 minutes.  We said before the season that he should make the Pro Bowl this year.  Is there anyone left who disagrees?
• The entire run defense.  The Colts made a concerted effort to stop the run yesterday.  That may have hampered them from stopping Brandon Marshall, but they sure stopped the run.  Denver couldn't score because the heart of their offense was taken away.  Marshall has three 100 yard games this season...Denver is 0-3 in them.
• Bending but not breaking.  Denver crossed the 50 nine different times.  They scored 16 points.  That's the definition right there.
• Dallas Clark laying out on fourth down and also hauling in three TDs...now about those dropped passes...
• Austin Collie making the most out of the few times Manning looked his way.  Collie only had three catches, but one was for a TD on third down and the other was the biggest third down catch of the game on the final drive.
• Indy has now gone on bruising 'game sealing' drives in back to back weeks.  That's how you win playoff games.
• For about a quarter and a half, we saw just how good this team can play.
• Mike Hart on third down.  How big was that broken tackle for the first down?  If he goes down in the backfield there, Indy kicks a field goal to go up 8, and Denver has the ball back with about 2:40 to play and two timeouts.  Instead, they end up having to burn all their timeouts, and are down 12 points.
• Joe Addai was dominating the game until he went out with an ankle injury.  He came back and finished hard.
• Dwight Freeney is having a monster year, and playing hurt the whole time.
• No egregious officiating mistakes.  It's so nice when Ron Winter isn't in town.

Reasons to Frown:

• The rational part of me says, "21 catches for less than 10 yards a catch is no big deal when you only give up 16 points."  The rest of me says, "THEY ONLY HAVE ONE LEGIT WIDE RECEIVER!  COVER HIM!"  I know that the Broncos are 0-3 when Marshall gets over 100 yards receiving.  I know that there were injuries in the secondary.  I just can't figure out why doubling Marshall would have been so difficult.
• Manning's play in the middle of the game was awful.  I get that the Broncos have the #1 pass defense, and a great cover secondary, but a 2/14 stretch for 15 yards, 3 picks and a rating of ZERO?  Not to make excuses for him, but I think his drop off coincided with him having to stretch out his glute on the side line.  It's not like the Broncos were making incredible plays on the ball.  His throw toward Wayne that hit Marshall in the facemask was insanely bad.  I've been saying for several weeks that Manning just looks a little off, and I think something is bothering him physically.
• The injuries.  Mathis and Freeney are banged up.  Yesterday, Foster, Lacey, Powers, and Bullitt all go out (hmm, 21 catches doesn't seem so bad all of a sudden), as well as Addai and Clark getting banged up.  I thought Indy should play all out through the Jets game, but I don't see how you run all these guys out there on three days rest in Jacksonville. They should still play all out against New York with plenty of rest, but the Thursday night thing just doesn't go in their favor.  I see another "San Diego '05" kind of loss where the Colts 'play their starters' on the surface, but there are so many guys missing they can't win a close game.
• Lots of pressure.  No sacks.  But lots of pressure.
• Tough day for Garcon.  Gotta catch that deep ball.  Sure the DB makes a nice play to rake the arms, but if your hands are on it, you have to hang on.

Best Call:

Going for it on fourth and four from the 34.  I don't love it because it worked; I love it because it was the best chance to score.  I have zero confidence in Stover from 51 yards.   Punting gets you nothing there, so going for it is the only sane play.

Worst Call:

Tim Jennings on Marshall on the goal line. I know we were short DBs, but come on.  At least double him with a line backer or safety or something.  He tossed Jennings aside like a rag doll.  You have to do better that scheme wise.

Reasons I'm Flying:

• That was a gutty, playoff caliber win.  Other than 21 catches for Marshall and Manning playing like a goon, there was nothing to criticize in that game. They stopped the run. They ran the ball.  The started fast. They finished strong.  They beat an 8-4 team by double digits.
• The road to Miami runs through Indianapolis.  This is our year.  I can feel it.
• Our dream playoff scenario is one step closer to reality. New England may well managed to catch Cincy for the three seed after all, which would mean the Colts will only have to play the Pats OR the Chargers, but not both. The Pats need to win out, and the Bengals would have to lose to San Diego next week, but it could still happen.

Reasons I’m Dying

• The injuries. They seem to be mounting. It’s time to get healthy.
• Manning’s play is bothering me. That’s 14 TDs and 10 picks in his last 6 games. Something is wrong. His rating has dipped back down below a 100. He’s going to land almost perfectly on my “Old Manning” prediction for the year. Unless Indy goes 16-0 and NO doesn’t, he doesn’t win the MVP. Even so, that might not be enough.
• Eli Manning bounced me from the 18to88 Fantasy playoffs last night. Thanks a lot Brett Favre! You sunk me just when I needed you most.

The Bottom Line:

The best part about all the records the Colts set yesterday is that they can still mean something. If Indy wins the Super Bowl this year, the consecutive wins, the most wins in a decade, ect. All of that becomes significant in the future. When people look back on the ’00 Colts, they’ll see those records and (hopefully) two Super Bowls and remember them as one of the best teams of all time.

For large stretches of the game, Denver didn’t look like it belonged on the same field with the Colts. Indy executed their game plan perfectly with the exception of Manning insisting on throwing the ball to the Broncos repeatedly. I’m thinking that is correctable.

It’s all right there for the taking. Get healthy, stay sharp, and make a run to glory.

The playoffs are coming.

I can’t wait.

Colts 28 Broncos 16