Wayne Harrison

Written by Nate Dunlevy on .

The undercurrent has been brewing for a couple of years that Marvin Harrison was the problem with the Colts' offense in the postseason.

Yesterday, Reggie Wayne showed just how ridiculous that notion is.

When asked about Garcon and Collie, Manning was quick to praise his veteran #1 Reggie Wayne.  Wayne, only had 3 catches for 55 yards, yet garnered a lot of kudos from Manning.  In the first game, Wayne caught 8 passes, but for only 63 yards.  The reason Manning cited Wayne is that he knows that a WR can't be measured just by his catches.  In the postseason, #1 WRs often get taken away.  Check all of Randy Moss's great games in the playoffs.  There aren't any.  A wideout, unlike other players, is dependent on several different players just to get a catch attempt.  He can't make anything happen on his own until the QB has time to throw to him and makes that choice.  A wideout can beat his man every play and never see the ball.  Hence, Manning heaped praise on Wayne for helping to make 100 yard games by Collie and Garcon possible.

When discussing Marvin Harrison, it's important to realize that there were four phases to his postseason career, and each was very different.

1996:  Indy plays in Pittsburgh.  Harrison is just a rookie, but is already the Colts' top receiver.  He catches 3 passes for 71 yards in a 41-14 loss.  It's hard to complain about that production

1999, 2000, 2002:  This is the Harrison IS the offense era.  How bad were the Colts other receivers?  Terrance Wilkens was the #2 in 1999.  Teams knew that if they clamped down on Marv, that Manning had nowhere else to go with the ball.  Harrison had 5 catches for 65, 5 for 63 and 4 for 47.  Those numbers are dead on similar to the kinds of game Reggie Wayne had yesterday. The problem was that there was no Pierre Garcon to catch 11 passes or Austin Collie to toss in a spare 100 yards.  Harrison was the leading receiver for the Colts in 3 of his first 4 playoff games. Jerome "I dropped a key TD pass" Pathon out-gained him 6 yards in the Miami game.  It's hard to fault Harrison when he was still the most productive Colt WR on the field.

2003-2006:  Now we've moved into the phase where the Colts had two legit wideouts (three actually for three years).  Harrison's numbers were pedestrian, but the Colts actually went 7-3 in the playoffs in this stretch and won a Super bowl.  Marvin continued to absorb the double coverage even as Reggie Wayne broke out for big games.  During this stretch Marv averaged 4 catches for 59 yards a game.  Again, sound familiar? Go back and watch the tape of the Super Bowl.  Harrison didn't have a huge game, but he did make several key first down catches.  Manning tried to force a pick into him early in the game, but the safety had him doubled.  That was how teams played the Colts.  It didn't matter overall, because Indy had enough weapons to over come it.  Harrison basically had the same game win or lose. Harrison took the double coverage so Wayne could have huge games.

2007-2008:  These games were ugly.  Marv should not have played in the 2007 game, and his fumble legitimately cost Indy the win.  By the fourth quarter of the 2008 game, Harrison was effectively done as an NFL wideout.  Manning threw him one comeback pass in the fourth quarter that comes to mind.  Harrison failed to attack it, sitting passively while the DB cut in front and swatted it down.  I won't argue with anyone who claims Harrison weighed things down in these two games.  Even so, the Colts offense was not the problem in the first loss to San Diego, so it's hard to kill Harrison too much.

Saying that Marvin Harrison was hurting the Colts in the playoffs is about like saying that Reggie Wayne has hurt them this year and that Pierre Garcon has clearly passed him as the Colts best wide out.  Such statements ignore the way football is played and place the blame on wideouts for things they have no control over.  Manning doesn't throw to double covered men, instead favoring single coverage when possible.  Harrison spent his entire career with Manning getting the double coverage.  Now that he's gone, Wayne is getting it.  Harrison's struggles early had more to do with the Colts being an incomplete team.  His struggles late were due to his health.  While he was healthy and the Colts had other options, his stats were low, but the team won lots of playoff games.

As long as Manning has somewhere else to go with the ball, the Colts will keep winning in January and February.

He may never be better

Written by Nate Dunlevy on .

It's with the just the slightest tinge of sadness that I recap one of the crowning moments of football in Indianapolis.  On a night full of hugs, joy, and plans for glory, I can't help but feel like I just watched the absolute pinnacle of the masterful career of Peyton Manning.  He's been brilliant before, of course, but there was something about what he did to the #1 defense in football today that was transcendent.  On a night where at various times he was failed by his line and even his most reliable of receivers (glad you got that ball to bounce back to you again, Reggie), Peyton Manning lifted the franchise onto his shoulders and decimated the vaunted New York Jets secondary.  His entire career I've wondered when I would see the best game he would ever play.  I thought maybe I had seen it on Monday Night in Miami this year, but what he did today defies words.  He's going to have plenty of other incredible days (hopefully one in two weeks), but what I saw from him this afternoon...that may just be the absolute peak of his considerable powers.  I'm so grateful I got to watch it, but also just a little melancholy because now I know.  I know how great he can play.  This is the utter limit of his skill.  The mystery is solved.  I may never see the like again.

Reasons to Smile:

 

  • Pierre Garcon.  Holy Moses, Frenchy.  The last two weeks have elevated him to near legendary status. Already the owner of the greatest hustle play in Colts history, he now owns the record for the most catches in an AFC Championship game.  He didn't just make big catches; he made tough in traffic catches. There was nary a gimme in the bunch.  He was wonderful in every way.  How are the Colts going to find room for all the wideouts next year?
  • Austin Collie.  Insane.  At the key moment of the game, Manning found him three straight times for a total of 80 yards and a score.  I cannot believe how good these two have been all year.  I easily confess it was the thing I was most wrong about before the season.  I couldn't see how either Collie or Garcon would end up doing what they have done.  Now...I couldn't imagine life without them.  In the end, all the Revis island stuff was a red herring.  Manning had Collie and Garcon so open all night that there wasn't much cause to look at Wayne.
  • After falling behind 17-6, Indy closed the game on a 24-0 run.  The D allowed zero second half points.
  • Joe Addai continues to do a little bit of everything, proving he is both extremely tough and incalculably valuable to this team.
  • Jim Caldwell's team showed no hint of panic.  Everyone was calm and collected even when a few big plays went the wrong way.  I've really come to root hard for Caldwell.  I think he's been the perfect man to run this team all year.
  • Allowing the Jets into the playoffs may have been an accident, but it was a brilliant one.  Listen, I still maintain the Colts were needlessly insensitive to the fact that people bought tickets for Christmas to the first Jets game.  They should have made their intentions more explicit to their fans, and they should have managed the game situations differently in the first game (like not punting in Jet territory).  The decision itself to rest the players was always endorsed by us.  16-0 was never a realistic possibility thanks to that blizzard in Buffalo.  There was no sane way for Indy to win that game, so in my mind it's a non-issue.  Regardless of they could have gone about it, no one can deny that the Colts have been fresh, prepared, and have had a relatively easy road to the Super Bowl.  Beyond that, this team is playing loose and together.  There's no crazy "18-0" pressure to wear them down. I'm convinced that the "Holy Grail" metaphor was perfect.  They let go of the grail, but could well bring home the Lombardi.  I can live with that.
  • The speed of the Colts D against the Jets run game.  Too many runs wide looked like they were going to be big gains, but were quickly snuffed out by a blazing linebacker or safety.  Incredible run D today.
  • The crowd was "loud as hell" according to Demond, who called it possibly the loudest he's ever heard (and yes, he was at 38-34).
  • Kelvin Hayden atoning for a couple of bad plays with an incredible pass breakup late, followed by a pick.  He hung with them today.
  • Nobody rebounds from a dropped pass like Dallas Clark.
  • Field goal Karma
  • Bending, not breaking
  • The second half adjustments by the defense were perfect.
  • Uh, that guy throwing the ball for the Colts didn't have a bad game either.
Reasons to Frown
  • While the line mostly shored things up late, there was some ugliness early. Two sacks, the bizarre missed block on Addai's fumble (which was not his fault) and a false start on Diem helped contribute to a sense of doom early.
  • The main thing I didn't think the Jets could do against Indy was get big plays.  They got two.  The first was when Lacey got caught looking the backfield and bit on a route when he had no help over the top.  Can't do that, rook.  Can't do that.  The Brad Smith bomb was a little more forgivable because I remember a stat that said the Jets hadn't passed out of the Tiger Cat all year.  Still, if Hayden minds his assignment, I don't think the Jets score more than 10 points.
  • The Colts got some pressure at times, but Sanchez made some nice moves to escape.  The blitz didn't seem to be very effective at landing.
  • I don't know where else to put this, but Sanchez played considerably better than I thought possible.  His third down throw for a score to Keller was the most impressive moment of the game.  He got whacked, but Keller had made an incredible move to barely get open hauled it in.  He showed something today.  Still, the Jets only scored 17 points, and one of those drives was thanks to a big play by Smith throwing the ball.  Don't assume the Jets are instant favorites next year in the AFC.  Remember the '08 Ravens.  They didn't get better this year.  They stayed basically the same, even though Flacco improved.
  • The Jets offense clearly out schemed the Colts in the first half.  The good news was that once Indy was attuned to their 'tricks' (like the play action...duh), the D shut out the Jets in the second half.
Best Call:
To Tom Moore for essentially telling Peyton, "You're hot.  Do whatever you want".
Worst Call:
I wasn't a big fan of kicking the FG to go up 13, but I will withhold judgement until I see some win probabilities on the call.  I'll go with the second field goal drive.  Indy had a 1st and goal from the four.  They had made good gains running the ball, but went throw (barely incomplete), throw (Collie down at the 6 inch line), quick snap sneak that got snuffed.  I was more or less ok with the sneak because it was a tendency breaker, but I thought running on first down would have made more sense.  I know I'm nitpicking.  This was a well coached, well called game.
Reasons I'm Flying:
  • I used to be scared of the Saints a little. Not anymore.  By the way, that was the worst officiated overtime in history.  I'm still not sure how they upheld the fourth and 1 play when Thomas clearly fumbled AFTER his forward progress had hit the first down.  Shouldn't the ball have been spotted where he recovered?  Doesn't the fumble eliminate the forward progress?  If the Jets blitz posed no problem for 18, I'm doubting Gregg Williams has anything that will rattle him.
  • This matchup feels a little like Pats/Eagles in the Super Bowl.  I'm just not convinced the NFC is any good at all.
  • The run game was effective.  That's always a plus.
  • This is it.  A second Super Bowl trip.  Indy can permanently put away all the 'underachiever' crap with one more good game.  Maybe then we can talk about football instead of nonsense.
  • All of a sudden, writing a book about the history of the Colts seems like a well timed idea.
  • At the end of the day, we have Peyton.  After what he did today, I'm not sure anything else much matters.
  • No Favre/Manning comparisons.  Good gravy, that was the worst pick I've ever seen.  That was a rookie mistake by an old, old man.  We were torn all night as to which was the better team, but after watching the Vikings screw up the final :30 six ways to Sunday, I was rooting to play them.  In the end, it was a toss up.
Reasons I'm Dying:
  • We didn't win the ticket lottery, so Demond probably won't be going to the game.  Bummer.
  • Freeney, Bullitt, Powers.  We are going to need all three. I'm freaking over what looked like a weird landing for Freeney.  Good thing we have two weeks to get ready.
  • The Saints kick return game terrifies me.  I don't want to get burned by Roby who we cut at the start of last year.  That would hurt.
The Bottom Line:

Indy was the better team today, by a lot.  Other than the Lacey gaffe on Edwards' TD, it really turned out fairly predictably.  The Jets were basically what we thought.  Sanchez was a lot better, and the secondary was a lot worse, but all in all, it turned out like it should.  Indy basically won by two TDs, and Rex Ryan once again showed he is powerless to stop Peyton Manning.
All the late season whining about Indy and New Orleans playing badly down the stretch turned out to be gibberish.  Both teams handled the undefeated issue in opposite ways, and now both teams are in the Super Bowl.  All season long, Indy and NO topped every Power Rankings. They spent most of the year as the unquestioned best teams in football.  Now, they'll play for all the marbles.  Drew Brees is playing for an unquestioned spot among the NFL greats.  Manning is playing for a spot among the top 5 QBs of all time.

No matter what happens in two weeks, this season has been a great one and a success.  A loss would be disappointing for sure, but I think we can all agree that given everything that has happened in the past 12 months (Marv and Dungy leave, Gonzo, MJax, Zombie go down), making the Super Bowl has been an accomplishment.    They are going up against a truly formidable football team for the right to say, "No one ever beat us."  Win or lose in Miami, I'm immensely proud of the 2009 Colts.
I plan on being a lot prouder in 14 days.

 

Book Your Tickets

Written by Nate Dunlevy on .

YOUR INDIANAPOLIS COLTS ARE SUPER BOWL BOUND!

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AFC Championship Game Blog

Written by Nate Dunlevy on .

The game blog will be updated at the end of every quarter.  This will also serve as your "game thread" for any chit chat.

FIRST QUARTER:

The first quarter ends without either team scoring, but the Colts are staring at at 25 yard field goal.  Early on, the Colts offensive line struggled mightily, allowing two sacks and a false start penalty.  The Colts first drive was cut short thanks in part to a missed pass interference call on a throw to Robinson.  Manning hit Pierre Garcon for two huge plays, however, and the Colts hope to get points on a drive that started at the 10.  The defense was stout, allowing a tough third down conversion when Mathis almost striped Sanchez.  The Jets drove into field goal range, but their attempt sailed wide.  It would have been nice to get a touch down on this last drive, but the Colts are in good position.  The D looks fast, and Manning might be on the verge of figuring out the Jets D.  So far, so good.

SECOND QUARTER:

The second quarter was borderline disastrous for the Colts, especially the defense.  The Jets hit a pair of huge plays deep down field, as the Colts D has been radically out schemed in this game.  The two big plays combined with a total meltdown by the line which led to an Addai fumble have helped the Jets to 17 points.  On offense, the Colts moved the ball effectively, but were killed by a blown line coverage that resulted in Addai getting killed just as he took a hand-off.  With the team trailing 17-6, Manning hit Collie on three straight balls to go for 80 yards and draw the Colts to within 17-13.  Manning has been incredible, posting 218 yards and a rating of 122.0.  Honestly, the issue is all on the defense.  I didn't think the Jets were capable of getting to 17 points, let alone in the first half.  The D has to step up large in the second if the Colts want to go to the Super Bowl.

THIRD QUARTER:

Good quarter for the Colts.  Despite the fact that Mark Sanchez is playing the most incredible game of his life, the Colts managed to take the lead back thanks to a "I'm taking over this game" drive by Manning.  18 hit Garcon for a TD for a 20-17 lead that still stands.  Collie and Garcon have both gone over 100 yards receiving.  The defense is holding its own now, especially against the run.  Sanchez continues to make every throw, and you have to wonder if he's really taken the leap, or if he's about to make a big mistake.  15 minutes to Miami.  It's anyone's game.

FOURTH QUARTER:

WE'RE GOING TO THE SUPER BOWL!!!

PEYTON MANNING PLAYS THE GAME OF HIS LIFE!

Hurricane Wayne

Written by Nate Dunlevy on .

One of our readers, Josh, sends us this wire he just received:

REVIS ISLAND--(AP)

The rumors circulating Revis Island for the past week are suddenly looking more like a harsh reality. The tropical depression forming off the coast of Revis Island for the last few days, now a Category 87 storm named "Hurricane Wayne," is rapidly approaching. Set to make landfall shortly after 2:00PM on Sunday, January 24th, Revis Island authorities have been working around the clock to evacuate residents and ensure minimal damage occurs.

"We've never seen anything like this before," said R.I.P.D. commissioner Randy Moss, "and if you ask me, I wouldn't be surprised if this storm wipes Revis Island right off the map." City officials have spent the past twenty-four hours boarding windows and doors in preparation. While Mayor Andre Johnson was not available for comment, a city volunteer was still around and answered a few of our questions. "The weatherman been wrong before, brah," said Steve Smith, "Who knows? Maybe this thing just barely misses us, like a Nate Kaeding field goal." City councilman Roddy White was less optimistic. "Just looking at the data our meteorologists have gathered, this is a very serious storm," said White, "All we can really do is prepare for the worst and hope that our preparations exceed the storm's impact. I think we've done a fine job in that regard, but we won't know 'til Sunday."

The streets of Revis Island have already turned into a virtual ghost town. We caught two residents on their way out and asked their opinion on the matter. "Child please, I was out of here yesterday," said a man who insisted on going by the name 'Ocho Cinco', "We'd be on the freeway by now cruisin' at 85 miles an hour getting away from here as fast as we can if my home boy T.O. right here didn't forget his Katy Perry CD," said Ocho Cinco, gesturing to the gentleman riding shotgun in his vehicle.

Already experiencing blistering wind and lightning storms, Revis Island officials are feeling the eleventh hour crunch. It appears they have made all the right moves, but only time will tell if------TRANSMISSION LOST


**The Associated Press would like to apologize for the early termination of this article. We lost contact with our crew on Revis Island before receiving the complete article and are doing everything we can to verify their safety. An update will be posted when available. Thank you.
-Editor

Time to plant the flag

Written by Luke Dunlevy on .



You really don't want to be left on an island with Reggie Wayne.

Who To Root For: NFC Championship Game

Written by Nate Dunlevy on .

(note to Jets fans:  I do this column every week, so don't freak out that we are overlooking your team)

Obviously, nothing is in the bag yet, but should the Colts be fortunate enough to advance tomorrow, we'll all be glued to the NFC Championship game to see who they would be playing in Miami.

The Saints/Vikes matchup is a difficult one to parse because both teams are excellent at different areas of the game and in some ways neither is an attractive matchup for the Colts.  Demond and I argued the point this week, so I'm going to take a crack at arguing the Vikings are the best matchup for the Colts and maybe later he'll show up take on the Saints.

I think Indy would rather face Minnesota than New Orleans because I honestly just think the Saints are the better team.  I break it down like this:

Better Coach:  Payton over Childress (and it's a landslide).  Payton is more likely to come up with a good scheme on offense to beat the Colts D, and he's far less likely to butcher the clock at the end of the half and game.

Better QB:  Brees over Favre (by quite a bit).  Favre is more likely to get sacked (the Vikes are middle of the pack in adjusted sack rate) and more likely to make a stupid throw under pressure.  It feels like now is Drew Brees's time whereas Favre is playing on muscle memory at this point.

Better Secondary:  I don't worry too much about defensive lines, because we've learned that Peyton isn't going down no matter what.  The question is who can cover the Colts WRs.  This isn't close. While the overall DVOA for the two defenses is almost identical, they are polar opposites.  The Vikes play great run D, and are AWFUL on pass defense.  The Saints are the reverse.  I'd much rather play the team that can't stop the pass.

Better Run Game:  Believe it or not, the numbers are clear.  The Saints have the most efficient run game in the NFL.  The Vikings are 23rd in FO's rankings one spot BEHIND the Colts.

I would always rather play a stupid coach, a QB who could go off half cocked, a crapy secondary and a team that struggles to run.

There are advantages the Vikes have though.  They are have incredible special teams.  They are third in the league, mostly due to insane kickoff return numbers. The Saints are near the bottom.  However, now that Reggie Bush is returning kicks, perhaps that advantage for the Vikes becomes a wash.

The Vikings also have a better defensive line, whereas the Saints rely on blitzes.  Ooooh, we love Manning against the blitz.

Taken as a whole, I can't see the Saints losing tomorrow night, but if the Colts advance first, I'll certainly be rooting for the Vikings to be their opponent.

Eyes in the Backfield-Jets (Playoffs)

Written by Nate Dunlevy on .

18 Things to Watch for During Sunday's AFC Championship Game

The Jets are long on magic, short on matchups

Last week, Indy took care of business in the divisional round and now stands just one win away from the Super Bowl.  The Colts let the Jets into the playoffs and now have the opportunity to kick them out.  It will either be the most brilliant strategy ever (ala 2004) or it will be mocked for eternity.  Will it be a moment of triumph in the Luke or one of the great upsets in NFL history?  Here's what you need to watch for...

1. Watch the blitz-We know the Jets love to blitz (more than any team in football).  We know Manning loves it when teams blitz (101.4 rating).  The question is if the Jets can land the blitz enough to disrupt 18.  In the first meeting, they only hit him once.  The Jets have a lot of pressures, but relatively few sacks on the year.  I don't think it will be enough to 'pressure' Manning.  They have to bring him down, or he'll destroy them.

2.  Watch Dallas-He had 57 yards receiving in the first game, and last week the Jets allowed Gates to catch 8 passes for 93 yards.  This kind of production is surprising because over the course of the season the Jets had the fourth best defense against tight ends.  If they allow Clark to have a big game, they cannot win.  I can't see any scenario where Clark racks up catches and yards and the Colts don't score points.

For more, just click...

Wonder-ful Answers

Written by Nate Dunlevy on .

This week we offer you a Q/A with "Wonder" a Jets fan and regular contributor at UltimateNYG.com.  He was gracious enough to answer some of our questions about this Sunday's game.  You can check out my responses to his queries here.

DZ:  1.  What if anything physical has changed for the Jets since their loss to Atlanta?  Are there any on the field reasons for their improved play?
W: Shonn Greene.
DZ:  2.  Revis struggled with Wayne in the first matchup, getting beat several times and picking up an interference penalty.  Are you worried about that matchup?
W: Not even in the least.

DZ:  3  In the first meeting, Manning was not sacked and only hit once.  What can the Jets do to get pressure on him this time around?
W: More disguised blitzes.

DZ: 4. The Jets have not won this year when they allow more than 17 points.  What is more likely:  the jets hold Indy under 17 or the Jets score 24 points?  Can they beat the Colts if Indy scores 20 points?
W: If the Jets can hold the Colts to 17, they have a very good chance of winning. 20 is pushing it, 24 forget about it.  JETS MUST CONTROL THE CLOCK for at least 33 min and run UP THE MIDDLE effectively.  It is only ok to run outside with Greene on a zone blocking play with Faneca pulling.
DZ:  5.  Describe for me the best case scenario for Sanchez in this game.  How many throws for how many yards?
W:  18-24 throws, 175 yards.
DZ:  6.  The Jets have scored 30% of their TDs on big plays.  In the post season, that number has jumped to 60%.  Against a defense that allows fewer long plays than any team in football, do you think the Jets can sustain drives for touchdowns?
W:  Expect the Jets get one big play to Keller, Cotchery or Edwards.

DZ:  7.  What is the difference between the Ravens and Jets?  They seem like the same team.
W:  Incorrect.  Shonn Greene and Thomas Jones are power runners and Ray Rice is a quicker cutback scat runner.  The Ravens have no Braylon Edwards because Mason cannot burn anyone deep.  On defense the LBers and Secondary of the Jets are much better and the Ravens DL is better.
DZ:  8.  Aside from turnovers, the single biggest factor on Sunday will be...?
W:  The clock.

DZ:  9.  The Jets had problems blocking Dwight Freeney in the first game, and that was without Robert Mathis playing.  How do you think they'll handle the Indy pass rush?
W:  Not worried in the least because they are just going to run the ball.  When they pass, they will use play action.  Freeney and Mathis will have to line up closer to the tackles to help the inside power running game.. when they do that they lose the ability to be speed edge pass rushers on the outside.
DZ:  10.  Final score prediction?
W:  20-17, flip a coin.

 

Running off at the Mouth

Written by Nate Dunlevy on .

One of the Jets major advantages on Sunday is their #1 ranked run game.  Unfortunately for them, running well hasn't always correlated to winning football games this year.

Consider in their 11 wins, they rushed for an average of 188 yards a game (179 if you take out the two gift wins at the end of the season).  That's certainly a potent attack.

The problem is that in their 7 losses, they've rushed for 147 yards a game.  This season they've lost 6 games when they rushed for more than 100 yards and 5 games when they rushed for more than 120 yards, and even lost a game after rushing for 300 yards.

The Jets don't need just a 'big' game rushing the ball, they need a monster game rushing the ball in order to be effective.  In only two of their 11 wins did they rush for less than 139 yards.

The question is, how likely are they to gash the Colts for that kind of yardage?

Indy gave up at least 139 yards on the ground five times this season.  Unfortunately for the Jets, three of those occurred in the final three games when Indy began to alter the defensive rotation.  In the first Jets game for example, the Colts allowed 202 yards on the ground. That is certainly a number the Jets will point to for confidence.  Unfortunately for them, 136 of those yards were gained after the move to pull the starters.

Let's set aside the final three games of the season for a moment, and focus instead the other two games where the Colts allowed big rushing totals.  One was against the Saint Louis Rams.  In that game, Indy had a 21-3 lead, and had limited Jackson to 20 yards on 8 carries.  In the second half, Indy played soft and let the Rams run, but the game was already put away.  The Colts won 42-6.

The other game may have some bearing on this one.  In the Colts' win over the Dolphins early in the season, Miami shoved the ball down the throat of the Indy D to the tune of 239 yards on the ground.  Moreover, they did their heavy damage with the Wildcat formation.  They had 13 Wildcat runs for 93 yards (7.2 YPC), and 36 other runs for 146 yards (4.1 YPC).  Obviously, this is the kind of scenario the Jets have to hope for.  They do have their own version of the Wildcat which was successful against the Bengals, and no doubt they'll try to use it on Sunday.  It isn't analogous to the Dolphins version, however, which is more of a power running style honed to perfection.

The Jets are going to have to hope for the kind of rushing day against the Colts that only one other team has managed to accomplish this season.  If they can, they could pull the upset.  If they can't, they have little chance.

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