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You guys are killing me with this continued box-score criticism of Trent Richardson. Reading off YPC numbers from game to game? That's the same lazy short-sidedness that resulted in RGIII being named Rookie of the Year last year.
The problem isn't the back. The problem isn't the o-line (though they're not world-beaters). The problem is the utterly ineffective and asinine "power run" package. It telegraphs the run. It pulls high-talent players off the field, allowing the defense to commit to stopping the run. And it exposes the inability of the offensive line to create the holes that an ostensibly "power run" team should be able to create. The offensive line can block in space. They absolutely cannot block against 9 in the box. That's just the reality of the line that we have.
They are who they are, Andrew Luck is who he is, our WRs are who they are, and likewise: our RBs are who they are. One definition of insanity is doing the same thing repeatedly and expecting different results. Our "power run" scheme is that very definition.
The stats so far show that Richardson and Brown are getting equally hit and stuffed playing out of "power run". Against the Broncos, Richardson had 14 carries that netted 12 yards before initial contact.; Brown had 11 carries that netted 11 yards before initial contact.
When either Brown or Richardson run out of a 3 WR set, especially from a draw or a delay, both are (for the most part) gaining yards with ease.
The major problem is so obviously scheme. Look past the overall YPC, and evaluate the down and distance, personnel package, and play calling. I've grabbed a few Colts drive sequences for example.
The Colts' first drive?
1st and 10 at IND 21T.Richardson up the middle to IND 25 for 4 yards (R.Moore).
2nd and 6 at IND 25T.Richardson left tackle to IND 29 for 4 yards (D.Ihenacho).
3rd and 2 at IND 29(Run formation) D.Brown right tackle to IND 30 for 1 yard (D.Ihenacho; D.Trevathan). IND - Harvey (54) and Reitz (76) report as eligible.
Another exemplary series of plays:
1st and 10 at IND 26(Shotgun) A.Luck pass short left to D.Brown pushed ob at IND 34 for 8 yards (C.Harris).
2nd and 2 at IND 34(Run formation) D.Brown up the middle to IND 35 for 1 yard (D.Trevathan).
3rd and 1 at IND 35(Run formation) T.Richardson up the middle to IND 33 for -2 yards (V.Miller). IND - Harvey (54) and Reitz (76) report as eligible.
This series is quite interesting, too:
Indianapolis Colts at 8:52DENIND
1st and 10 at IND 34(Run formation) A.Luck pass short left to D.Brown pushed ob at DEN 38 for 28 yards (D.Ihenacho). Penalty on DEN-C.Harris, Illegal Contact, declined.
1st and 10 at DEN 38(Run formation) D.Brown right end to DEN 39 for -1 yards (C.Harris).
2nd and 11 at DEN 39(Run formation) A.Luck pass incomplete deep middle to R.Wayne.
3rd and 11 at DEN 39(Shotgun) A.Luck scrambles left tackle to DEN 28 for 11 yards (C.Harris).
1st and 10 at DEN 28(Shotgun) A.Luck pass incomplete short left to T.Hilton (D.Trevathan).
2nd and 10 at DEN 28(Run formation) T.Richardson up the middle to DEN 20 for 8 yards (C.Bailey; S.Williams).
3rd and 2 at DEN 20(Run formation) A.Luck pass short right to S.Havili for 20 yards, TOUCHDOWN.1418
Or some more:
1st and 10 at IND 20(Run formation) A.Luck scrambles right end to IND 29 for 9 yards (N.Irving; D.Trevathan).
2nd and 1 at IND 29(Shotgun) T.Richardson up the middle to IND 31 for 2 yards (D.Ihenacho; D.Trevathan).
1st and 10 at IND 31(Run formation) D.Heyward-Bey right end to DEN 39 for 30 yards (D.Ihenacho).
1st and 10 at DEN 39(Shotgun) A.Luck pass incomplete deep left to T.Hilton (K.Webster).
2nd and 10 at DEN 39(Shotgun) D.Brown up the middle to DEN 34 for 5 yards (P.Lenon; R.Moore).
3rd and 5 at DEN 34(No Huddle, Shotgun) A.Luck pass incomplete short left to R.Wayne (M.Jackson).
Just opened the Star and saw mention of the trade deadline looming. I didn't keep reading because I was afraid they'd lead with what I think is going on in Grigson's head: "Oh crap I still got all these draft picks I'ma lose if I don't use them by the deadline!! I will hide them in my goatee and use them next season. Yes, goatees are my strategic advantage. I will never trade you, goatee."
Yeah that trade is looking worse and worse. Too much value. Plus all the signs were there before the Colts got him. He's pretty much the same back he was on the Browns.
Brown on the other hand seems to getting better and better. I really hope Pep uses him in more screens.
@GregC Plus Fleener had the attempted Hurdle
Ugh... the chariot that pulls my internet connection just stopped. My streaming has turned to dust. Will have to listen the recorded show tonight.
piping in sound to the RCA Dome :) @GregC
Toler weirdly started playing well. Might have something to do with Vontae also steping up big time.
@chip_bennett Some of us have actually watched the game and compared what TR and Brown have done in the passing formations. Brown is still superior. Ballard, Brown, and Bradshaw have all had more success out of the run heavy formations than TR. This really isn't up for debate, and your sample size is one game.
@naptown_ninja Whalen and Rogers? I think Brazill does. DHB is what he is, and Hilton is clearly good. However I see one good receiver and one with potential in that group.
@hankster totally. We have a window while our 2012 draft class are still on their rookie deals.
@naptown_ninja another guy with a surprisingly good game.
@chewie_33 yeah that was a pleasant surprise.
@Payton actually, I looked at the last game, too. Same results.
And at least I *have* a sample size. I have yet to see any criticism of Richardson accompanied by an actual, statistical comparison of comparative success of the backs out of "power run" vs passing formations. As with your comment, I've only seen anecdotal argument.
1) This is not a formal debate. It's an CA thread
2) You didn't support your thesis very well. You copied and pasted some drive stats into a thread with little to no analysis. You don't establish parameters for a run formation. Is it a 2-TE set with no full back? How about a weak-I formation with three wideouts or a TE flexed? Can those shotgun formations have double TEs or one TE and a FB? Would that still be a passing formation?
3) Your evidence comes from a statistically insignificant sample set. FO and PFF look at every down and it is an objective measure for each running back. You pretend that Ballard and Bradshaw didn't run from the same types of formations. They did and you know it. They were also much more productive. Hell Bradshaw had a better game than Richardson against the 49ers AFTER he suffered the neck injury that put him on IR.
4) Given his ineffectiveness running against 7 man fronts -- well below league average per PFF for facing 8 man fronts -- he faced with a more talented offensive line last year, it's not a stretch to say he just hasn't been very good.
5) You might want to check your grammar in the last sentence of your post. One logical fallacy plus another logical fallacy means two logical fallacies.
Lastly, if you want a formal debate with statistical analysis, either pony up some cash or find a website to pay me to do it. I'm more than willing to, but you're really not gonna like my hourly rate. Most people bag on TR because he's not productive. It's just a lot easier to do because we gave up a 1st round draft pick for someone who isn't producing at all. I gave Brown the benefit of the doubt when he was drafted because he at least showed some promise. The 1 great play, on average, TR makes a game are usually completely nullified by the 4-5 bad ones he makes.
Brown would not be splitting snaps 50/50 with him as of the Denver game if he were producing on a level that is acceptable for a starting RB. The coaching staff wanted to give him the majority of the carries, especially after Bradshaw went down. His snap count has been dropping quickly and Brown's has been shooting up. There is a reason for that.
@Payton I don't think you understand how debate works. The person making an assertion is responsible for producing supporting citations. "I don't have time to look it up" and "look them up yourself" are logical fallacy.
@Payton fair enough; just link to the FO/PFF stats that compare Colts RBs in the context of offensive formation, if they've already done that work. Oddly enough, nobody has yet cited any such reference.
@chip_bennett @Payton I have neither the time nor the willingness to rework stats that are already taken care of by FO, PFF, and confirmed by my eyeballs. He has a negative DYAR, DVOA, PFF ranking, and he looks slow, indecisive, and unreliable as a RB.
As to your point, yes he is very misused and the run formations are fucking retarded with the personnel we have. No one is disputing that. We are wondering why we, as a team, gave up a 1st rounder for what amounts to a goal-line, short yardage running back who's been thoroughly outperformed by the 3 other RBs with carries, two of whom ran out of the exact same formations as he did.
@chip_bennett @Payton Richardson is indeed suffering unfair criticism due to his poor numbers. But no one ever talks about the awesome first downs that he keeps getting out of nowhere. He is beeing completly misused, and probably will be until the end of the year.
Having said that he does look slow. Problably he started the season out of shape due to the injuries he had in training camp. And a slow plodder RB has no use for this team.