The Luck Conundrum

(Photo: Thomas J. Russo, US PRESSWIRE)

Andrew Luck should be a shoe-in as Rookie of the Year. He's led a 2-14 2011 squad to a 11-5 season and a playoff berth. He lead the 7th ranked passing offense and just broke Peyton Manning's franchise rookie passing record and Cam Newton's NFL rookie passing record. He's clearly mastered the huddle, gained the respect and trust of his team and has become a playmaker for which defensive coordinators must account. Sounds like a guaranteed Rookie of the Year campaign right?

Some don't agree.

The knock is that Luck, while lighting up opponents, also kind of sucked. To be more specific he's 54th in the league in passer rating and 62nd in completion percentage. That list includes non-starters and others who've thrown passes, but still it's clear in those areas he's not been great. He's also thrown the third highest number of interceptions. If you temper that with the knowledge he also had the 5th highest number of attempts it's not so bad. Overall the argument against Luck is that he made too many rookie mistakes.

Paul Kuharsky of ESPN has a nice defense of Luck however, looking at his game against Houston this past week. Specifically, Kuharsky makes note that pass protection has been suspect and when combined with the inordinate number of attempts Luck has made explains much of Luck's perceived struggles:

Given a second chance on third-and-23, Luck got quality protection again, stepped into a throw again and connected deep to T.Y. Hilton for a 70-yard touchdown.

Back-to-back throws. With good protection both times (aided by a hold on the first), Luck was able to really step into them, and they were excellent.

How many of his 14 incomplete passes resulted from an inability to step into a throw?

There is a degree of subjectivity in assessing what happened on a play. Here is my breakdown of the

incomplete passes:

Hurried or hit -- 5
Drops -- 3
Thrown away -- 2
Defended by DB -- 2
No issue -- 1
Batted -- 1

Those five hurries or hits certainly affected Luck’s ability to be accurate. He overthrew Donnie Avery; he bounced a ball to Wayne.

Is Kuharsky right? Is it all about the offensive line? Football Outsiders has the answer: the Colts have the 7th highest sack rate in the NFL and feature the 26th overall offensive line in pass protection.

Other Rookie of the Year candidates are playing behind significantly better offensive lines. In Seattle, Russell Wilson is playing behind the 3rd best offensive line in pass protection while Robert Griffin III and Washington feature the 7th best. Neither team gave up more than 26 sacks while Indianapolis left Luck on the ground 58 times! In short, those guys were playing behind prime rib while Andrew Luck was

served up as dinner.

That's not to say that Wilson and Griffin haven't had stellar seasons in their own right. In fact, this may be finest rookie class in NFL history according to some. Wilson's eye-popping 26 touchdowns stand out and both lead their teams to the playoffs. Both deserve to be in the discussion obviously.

When considering the body of work and the offensive lines they played behind it's clear that Andrew Luck should win the award.

The question remains: will AP writers see it the same way?

6 comments

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DougEngland

On Simmons podcast this week, talking to Mike Lombardi they are talking about how well Luck played against Houston and how Luck had no time to throw and was still making plays. Lombardi makes the comment to think of Luck as Big Ben 2.0.

Their comments are fine (and correct)... but my comment is this, "boys, is this the first Colts game you've watched? You've just described EVERY Luck game this year!"

(Plus the fact, the Redskins won a game Kirk Cousins played the whole game!)

Bobman1

1 Like

Nicely done, and it helps to explain to the masses the dark spots on Luck's stat sheet. In reality, any of these three deserve it, as well as Morris at RB in DC and maybe Doug Martin in TB. (Quick, name any rookie RB who ran for 1,600 yards and 10 TDs and did NOT win!!!). It's a freak year for rookies and each voter will look at what he wants. Who really deserves it? All of them. Who will get it? I suspect the whole team turnaround from 2-14 to 11-5 will impress voters, especially when they look at the easy to see peripheral stats of WASH and SEA having the #1 and #2 rushing offenses, doing a lot of the heavy lifting for the rookie QB. I think Luck gets it, but wouldn't have a major issue with either Russell or Griffin--what I saw of them was damn impressive.

matt_has

3 Like

I thought for sure your link was going to Skip Bayless's piece until I realized that you were linking to legitimate journalism. I am ashamed for having read his entire piece. More importantly, I'm dumber for having read it.

Reminds me of the days when I used to visit SB.

7IHd

@matt_has Ha! I half expected that, too. I read 2 paragraphs in, then checked the writer and quit. Everyone commenting just did so to slam Skip, too.

Bobman1

1 Like

@matt_has

Matt, Oh My God, is Skip Brainless in top form or what? I would LOVE to see him be handed a business to run--he would maximize this year's profit by selling cheaply made goods for too much money, alienate every potential customer, and they be out of business in a year, rather than building long term quality and maybe sacrificing a little profit this year to fund R&D for the future. We're all thrilled Manning is having a great year, but Irsay had to build a whole team for the future. The unknowns about his arm notwithstanding, most people saw a shitty team and shitty OL and wondered what one 36 year-old guy could do to build long-term quality there. So Manning stays and we win 12 games as usual. Great. Still not a good enough team to win the SB, and in the long term it would have been a wasted year (but a fun one) in terms of trying to build a stable, quality, balanced team. The whole garbage about Irsay having to put his stamp... oh, my eyes hurt and like you, I am now dumber for having read it. I hate myself.... There are many things in life I regret... driving drunk back in 93, shooting Kennedy back in 1962, the whole Russial Revolution didn't really work as I had planned... putting that damn hole in the ozone layer!... But reading this article tops them all.