12 Things to Watch in Sunday's Colts-Browns Game
With this guy at quarterback, I almost want to root for the Browns.
Last week, the Colts' chance to establish themselves as a playoff contender went by the boards in an epic beat down. Now, one of their best hopes for a win all season sloughs its way into Lucas Oil Stadium. Here's what to watch for.
1. Watch for the turnovers. Perhaps the most distressing part of the 2012 season has been the defense's utter inability to force turnovers. Brown's quarterback Brandon Weeden is an interception machine, but to this point the Colts don't look to have the playmakers necessary to force the ball loose. In all the defense has been worse than anyone could imagine, and in almost every conceivable metric, has gone backwards from 2011. If the Colts can't get turnovers from Weeden, they can't get turnovers.
2. Watch for Joe Hayden on Reggie Wayne. Hayden is one of the goodish corners that people are waiting to turn into a great corner. If he can take Wayne away, the Colts are left with no offense at all. This is a big test for him and a chance to establish himself firmly in the upper eschalon of corners. If Wayne can take advantage of him, the Colts will win big. Hayden says he doesn't want to follow Reggie Wayne around the field, so Wayne could wind up in the slot all game. Again, it would be a huge plus for Indy.
3. Watch for the continued development of the tight ends. Coby Fleener and Dwayne Allen didn't have huge high-volume games against the Jets, but there was something about how they were both used that seemed to make more sense. One of the criticisms of Bruce Arians has been the lack of short routes, and safety valves for Andrew Luck. It seemed like last week, he gave the tight ends more useable routes. More of that would be good.
4. Watch for a reshuffling. Word on the street is that a certain angry Caucasian linebacker will be in his first game of the season this week, and he's ready to hit someone. The problem comes in figuring out where and when to play him. Inside linebackers Jerrell Freeman and Kavell Conner have played reasonably well this season, should one of the two be benched for a promising young linebacker like Angerer? Freeman plays a role similar to what Angerer's figures to be and likely will be the one who's snaps get reduced.
5. Watch for big plays. The Browns safeties both excel in run defense, so don't expect Vick Ballard to have more success this week in turning runs into big gains. However, both have been inconsistent against the pass, and the Browns defense generally has struggled to contain third and fourth receivers, coming in at 25th in DVOA against those players. T.Y. Hilton has been relatively invisible since his 113-yard day against Jacksonville, but could have another big day on Sunday.
6. Watch for geritol. The Browns have gone all in with their 54-year old rookie quarterback. Weeden is so old that Wilford Brimley turned him down for a spot in the Cocoon. Weeden is so old he gets a joke about Cocoon. Weeden is so old he knows who Wilford Brimley is. Weeden is so old...just keep reading, this could go on for a while...when he played high school ball, they called the huddle ye olde pre-scrum parlay. Weeden is so old that he's bad at football. Weeden is so old...
7. Watch for tired legs. The Browns not only drafted a quarterback old enough to be Chris Weinke's father, they drafted Trent Richardson. Running backs drafted in the first round aren't such a great value given their tendency to wear out quickly. I guess they though Trent needed a Big Brother. Regardless within five years they'll have a quarterback that's over the hill and a running back whose legs are dead. Word is that he'll do "whatever it takes" to play on Sunday which will just keep that odometer rolling.
8. Watch for the generational rivalry. Andrew Luck and Old Man Weeden met in the Fiesta Bowl in January. Luck lost 41-38 in overtime while Weeden and teammate Justin Blackmon (now Jaguar) hooked up three times for touchdowns. After the game Weeden mussed Luck's hair and bought him a malt at the soda shop.
9. Watch for home, sweet home. The Colts young team has performed far better at home this year than they have on the road. That's not a surprise with a young, rebuilding team, but it sure hasn't hurt that the Colts opponents at home have been the Jaguars, Vikings, and flailing Green Bay Backers, versus the upstart Bears and inconsistent Jets. The home record will be helped again by playing Cleveland at home this week, and I'm expecting to see Andrew Luck's passer rating look more like his home 85.4 rather than his road rating of 52.1.
10. Watch for invaders. The game is sold out, but there will no doubt be a lot of Cleveland fans there. Browns fans travel well, and many have relocated to Indiana to escape the crushing crapulence that is Cleveland. Moving foreward, I worry this could be the last sell out of the season if the team plays poorly the next two weeks. As long as Indy gets a win today, the Colts can probably count on another against Miami, but as the season goes along, it will get harder and harder to sell those last 1,000 tickets as the wins taper off.
11. Watch for Mike Holmgren chuckling. Is it just me or did Holmgren get the best end of the deal in the recent Browns sale? While Holmgren is not the level of genius some portray him to be something tells me he's quite happy slipping out of Cleveland while the getting is good. Without question he'll be in demand for teams with lots of money and little sense. I can already here him telling Jerry Jones, "Did I tell you about the time I managed to convince a team that Hume Cronyn would be a great starting quarterback? Boy was that a hoot!"
12. Watch for another week of "Luck is great" stories. When the Colts win, all the focus is on how good Luck is. When they lose, the focus is on how weak his traditional numbers are. This week, they get the win. Colts 23 Browns 19.
"After the game Weeden mussed Luck's hair and bought him a malt at the soda shop"
"crushing crapulence that is Cleveland"
glad I read this one.
His numbers are weak? The fuck numbers are you looking at!?
* On pace to break the following NFL records (NOT rookie records): passes attempted, drop backs, offensive snaps.
* On pace to break the following NFL rookie records: yards passing, passes completed, passing yards per game
* NFL rookie records that he's on pace to be close to (one or two good games in these categories and he'll be on pace again): TDs
His completion percentage right now sits at 53.4%. Since the merger, there have been exactly 12 quarterbacks to start the full season and complete >= 53% of their passes.
He's got a 1:1 TD ratio, which is pretty average for a rookie QB, but only just.
5.2% sack rate is pretty average, but again, not bad for a rookie.
I'm not sure what you mean by "traditional numbers" but by these stats at least, he seems to be doing incredibly for a rookie. If you compare him to RG3, which is for sure what people are doing to arrive at that conclusion:
34% of Luck's yards come from YACs. 62% of RG3's do. RG3's has taken the same number of sacks, yet has made 60 fewer pass attempts (2 full games for RG3). RG3 is averaging 26 attempts per game. Luck is averaging 44 attempts per game. Point is, you can't look at RG3's QB rating and think that he's doing statistically better as a QB than Luck is, because he's really not, except that his receivers run the ball after the catch a whole lot more and run up his numbers. If you take away YACs from both... Luck is 62.4 and RG3 is 78.9.
I'm not buying the "weak stats" that you're selling. Balderdash, and shenanigans on you.
@oorza I think you missed the point entirely.
I wasn't saying saying his numbers were weak. I'm saying people will focus on how weak his passer rating, Comp %, TD INT ration (which is not good compared with RG3).
He's at or near the bottom of every traditional rate stat except sack percentage.
These things are going to start coming up more and more if they lose.
I'm not attacking him on them, because I know all the things you brought up.
You should read the point a little more closely. This is what is about to be used against him if/when the team starts losing regularly.
It's going to happen. Just watch.
@omahacolt That's a really weird thing to write in a comment.
What would possess you to write that?
@Nate Dunlevy i have read your stuff for a long time. you are much better than that post
@omahacolt Weeden has 3 more picks in the same number of attempts. That's pretty significant, actually.
I massively dispute that the Colts have more talent than Cleveland. Indy is a team almost completely devoid of talent at WR. I would rank Indy's WRs as the worst overall group in football.
As for the Weeden jokes, that's fine. There's no accounting for taste. I think it's utterly hilarious that Cleveland drafted him. If you don't, no worries.
I understand your complaint. I do an in depth analysis article on Bleacher Report. The point of this piece is not to do that level of depth.
Sorry you didn't like it.
I appreciate the criticism. Thank you. That was much more helpful going forward.
@Nate Dunlevy i read written by nate dunleavy and assumed you wrote it all.
what i didnt like?
the calling weeden an int machine when he has 3 int's on luck and a much less talented team
all the talk of how old weeden is. not very funny.
not much analysis involved. i was expecting more depth into the game
@omahacolt I wrote about half that post. Other people contributed to the rest. I wrote 1, 2, 3, 6, 10, 12 Eyes is a staff piece now.
My question is why you'd bother to write vague complaints.
If you don't like something, be specific. Otherwise, you are just commenting on something to complain about it.
I guess I just don't get what the point of doing that is.
I'm not a fan of general complaints. They aren't constructive and don't lead to improvement. I know you've been reading for a long time.