Irrational Eli vs. Peyton Postseason Debate Begins
Scott Kacsmar gets an early jump on the irrational "Who's the best Manning brother in the playoffs?" debate. Must-read history inside.
Other than a quick and disappointing exit in
In fact, the train’s already taken off. If you’re masochistic enough to watch ESPN’s First Take, you would have heard Skip Bayless already offer this “insight” this week, as Stephen A. Smith, the “George Jefferson of sports analysts”, shouted at him from across the table.
It has reached Twitter, as Sports Illustrated’s Jim Trotter is drinking the freshly stirred Eli Kool-Aid this week. Some may even suggest Eli’s better overall (would Peyton get swept by the Redskins?), but I won’t acknowledge that one.
And it’s only just beginning. Rather than tackle the comparison in depth, the fact is it’s not a debate worth having just yet. If one wanted to say Eli has done better in road playoff games than Peyton, then they have a very good argument for that. Eli has twice as many road wins (4 to 2), has played a few elite teams, and has compiled some of the best road playoff statistics of all time.
But the overall body of work? It’s just not there yet. What happens if Eli has a disastrous performance this week? It would make all the talk look premature and foolish.
The biggest problem people have with arguing about Peyton Manning’s postseason career is the overwhelming lack of understanding of what happened in those games. Yes, his record is 9-10. Yes, Eli’s record is 6-3. But in the “everything is magnified” scope of the postseason, it can’t possibly be that lazy and effortless can it?
Even the slightest bit of analysis should start to lead you to think something’s just not right with the Colts’ playoff record relative to their quarterback’s performance. Look a little further and you will find some things that are just flat out bizarre.
Let’s take that in-depth look into 40 percent of Peyton’s playoff losses.
This week I looked at home playoff losses, finding that in the league’s entire history, the home team is 293-140 (.677) in the playoffs. It’s a significant advantage to be home, though in the case of the Colts, they were a game under average at 6-4 with Manning at home.
What I also found is that Manning’s four home playoff losses are the most in NFL history, which obviously doesn’t sound good. Of course, it doesn’t sound as bad when compared to the league average; noting that one more win would have been 7-3 (.700). The four games are 1999 AFC Divisional vs.
In total, 28 different quarterbacks have lost multiple home playoff games as starters in their career. That includes both Manning brothers and others such as Joe Montana, Tom Brady, Ben Roethlisberger and John Elway. If you view the table near the bottom here, then you will see some stunning results.
- While Manning’s lost a record four home games, they have been by a combined score of 11 points (4, 3, 3, 1).
- Manning’s average margin of defeat, -2.75 points, is the lowest among all 28 quarterbacks.
- Only six quarterbacks have a smaller total margin of defeat than Manning’s four losses by a combined 11 points.
- 20 out of 27 other quarterbacks have at least one home loss by more points than Manning’s four losses combined.
- Only Peyton Manning, Philip Rivers and Terry Bradshaw have not lost a home playoff game by more than four points.
- Manning has the highest cumulative passer rating (88.2) in these home playoff losses.
- Eli Manning ranks 25th out of 28 in average margin of defeat (-17.50) and 25th in passer rating (31.8).
- Eli’s home playoff losses by 23 and 12 points are each more than the margin of Peyton's four losses combined (11).
Clearly, Peyton’s been more unlucky at home rather than “bad”. In fact, it’s easy to see he has been historically good in his home losses. Take the statistics for all 140 starting quarterbacks that lost a home playoff game and you end up with the following results:
- Manning’s 108.7 passer rating against the 2010 Jets in the Wild Card is the highest passer rating any starting QB’s ever had in a home playoff loss*.
- Manning’s 97.7 passer rating against the 2007 Chargers in the AFC Divisional is the 5th highest passer rating. The 402 yards passing and 33 completions are the most any QB’s had in either category in the 140 games.
- Manning (1/13/2008) and Y.A. Tittle (12/22/1957) are the only starting QB’s in NFL history to throw three TD passes and lose a home playoff game.
- Manning had two turnovers in the four losses combined. They were both interceptions against
- Manning’s 90.9 rating against the 2005 Steelers in the AFC Divisional is the 15th game where a quarterback had a rating over 90.0 in a home playoff loss.
It usually takes something unusual for a quarterback that plays that well to lose in the playoffs. For example, any type of play that comes late in the game to dramatically swing the win probability, such as a missed game-tying field goal (Vanderjagt vs. Steelers).
There could also be some hidden stats, like a fumble, but Manning did not personally lose any fumbles in any of these games. He has one lost fumble in 19 playoff games, and that was on a hand-off to Joseph Addai in Super Bowl XLI that the Bears snuffed out in the backfield.
When looking at Manning’s loss to the Jets last season, consider it was only the second playoff game in NFL history when the lead changed twice in the final minute. When Joe Montana had a 103.0 rating (2nd highest) against the Giants in the 1990 NFC Championship, he had to leave the game after being injured, Roger Craig fumbled the ball late, and the Giants got a last-second field goal to win 15-13. Speaking of field goals, Drew Brees (101.2 rating in 2004; 3rd highest) lost his playoff debut in overtime after Nate Kaeding failed on a 40-yard field goal that would have won the game.
It’s the unusual circumstances that create the loss in these cases, not the quarterback.
*Notes: This data was based only on the starting quarterback’s statistics. Carson Palmer had a 118.8 rating vs.
But wait – there’s more.
Since Peyton’s playoff debut in the 1999 season, 46 teams have lost a home playoff game. Excluding Carson Palmer in 2005 again, there have only been four starting quarterbacks to throw zero interceptions in those losses.
Who are those four? Peyton Manning, Peyton Manning, Peyton Manning, and Trent Green.
Who did Green lose to? Peyton Manning, in a 38-31 game that neither team punted during. The 31 points by
From 1999-2011 (playoffs):
- 42 home QB’s in losses were a combined 793/1403 (56.5 percent) for 8,530 yards, 6.08 YPA, 32 TD, 79 INT, 58.7 rating.
- Manning at home in four games was a combined 92/154 (59.7 percent) for 1,144 yards, 7.43 YPA, 5 TD, 2 INT, 88.2 rating.
Eli’s first playoff game was a 23-0 shutout loss at home to the 2005 Carolina Panthers. It’s only the 9th time a team has been shutout at home in the playoffs (the only since 1980). He had the No. 1 seed in 2008, and only scored 9 points on offense at home to the Eagles in a 23-11 loss. Younger brother may make up some of the gap with road performances, but “home favorite” is not a role he plays well.
Eli is hot right now, but should a bad misstep happen in
Of course, things rarely have ever been fair for Manning in regards to the playoffs. What if I told you a record-setting MVP season resulted in a 17-point loss in the Divisional round, in a game where the receivers dropped six passes, the offensive line struggled, the defense gave up long scoring drives, and the quarterback’s lone interception came after the two-minute warning, down by 17?
Would you know I was talking about Manning in
One could only wonder if Peyton Manning will ever have another opportunity to start a playoff game and prove the critics wrong. If not, then I guess we’ll just be left with a 19-game playoff history that’s already been revised and butchered so many times that it’s hard to imagine what type of legacy he’ll be thought to have left behind in the future.
The history doesn’t lie, as long as you’re willing to dig beneath the final score.
I think the difference is that everyone knows that Peyton is one of the best quarterbacks ever, so they look for reasons to bring him down to earth, while people tend to look for reasons to elevate lesser players. I think it's human nature to try to level the playing field.
I wish that were the case, but I don't buy it. Brady has unquestionably been the hero of the league, and has been promoted as such. Why not bring him down to earth? The media could find just as many "reasons" to knock him as Peyton.
or Rodgers (see the 17 pt loss Manning/Rodgers stat [choke?] that Scott cites) ... Brees, etc.
@matt_has Brady has the "rags to riches" underdog story to live off. And he also won early in his career, which gives him a pass for failing later.
I know there are differences beween championship-Brady (2001-06) and stat-Brady (2007-now), but the media wants you to believe they've always been the same person.
This is almost as good as the article Nate put up on 18to88 last year that talked about Manning in the playoffs - especially regarding field position. I keep that one so I can refer back to it whenever people start the Manning vs. Brady debate. I will keep this one also. Great article.
@LeviFuller Can you repost a link to Nate's 18to88 article from last year you are referencing? Thx!
@Marc_Indy Sure. Here it is.
Also here is another that I reference a lot from that same time period.
http://18to88.com/2011-archives/february/inking-the-quarterbacks.html
@LeviFuller I might be wrong, but I think Scott wrote the p-f-r blog piece that that 18to88 heavily was based off of.
@ScottKacsmar@Nate Dunlevy@dmstorm22 Oops, sorry. I guess I never realized that. Either way both are great articles and go a long way in illustrating the truth is not always what it seems (to bone headed fans and nfl experts) and that SB rings are not the whole story in a players legacy - even though that should be obvious considering how much of a team sport football is.
@Nate Dunlevy@dmstorm22@LeviFuller The drive stats? I'll be doing an update to that for next week (or maybe the week after; some time before the Super Bowl)
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Absolutely outstanding, Scott. That line "Who are those four? Peyton Manning, Peyton Manning, Peyton Manning, and Trent Green." is just mindboggling, especially considering how Trent Green came to be on it. Peyton has definitely been the unluckiest QB in the playoffs in our epoch, and laso undoubtedly one of the best. Shame the media want the easier, inaccurate, incendiary storyline.
Earlier this week on SportsNation, Colin Cowherd and some former NFL player and that I didn't get his name as I almost immediately flipped the channel in disgust, but they BOTH pciked Eli over Peyton if they had to win one game.
I wonder what these yahoos will say when Peyton in the next few years becomes the only QB to lead to different teams to Super Bowl wins.
And this will happen as it is the only outcome I will even consider. (Since I have completely given up on Peyton for the Colts again, and I will just not accept him retiring.)
(And by the way, really good work on this post.)
Just want to point out there's a supporting article (well actually this is a supporting article to the main one about home playoff losses) that doesn't have a link yet that belongs in here. I'll add it whenever I can.
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@ScottKacsmar Just wanted to point out that in your CHFF article you called the 2003 Divisional Round "The Closest Week of them All." While yes all games featured one games scores (and a 2OT game), the 2006 Divisional Rounds holds the distinction for the closest round in terms of the aggregate margines of victories (9+3+3+3 = 18 for 2006 vs. 6+3+7+3 = 19).
Personally, to me the 2006 season was the greatest postseason of my years of watching football. It had iconic wild card games (Romo's fumble), divisional round games (Pats over SD), and the best non-Super Bowl game of the 2000s (38-34 AFC Title Game). Throw into that another close wc game (Ealges over Giants) and two more three-point playoff games (Bears over Seahawks, Saints over Eagles - first playoff game since Katrina). The Super Bowl disappointed though as a really exciting game.
It would be interesting to see what postseasons people consider the best. 2003 and 2006 are probably the two best of the past 10 years. Both had iconic games (SB XXXVIII, the "We Want the Ball and We Are Going to Score" game for 2003), and bad days (both title games in '03).
@PancakesPodcast You read my mind. @SI_JimTrotter got his own special mention. He can keep drinking the road playoff Kool-Aid though
@captaincomeback He infuriated me yesterday, "I've studied it in-depth!!!": "look at wins losses, and Peyton had 3TDs and 7INTs in 2006!"
@PancakesPodcast People bash his 2006 stats, but ignore situational play. If he loses, they'll ignore his stats; bash his situational play
@PancakesPodcast I don't even think the first 2 losses were a problem. This team's really just been the definition of snakebitten 4 playoffs
@captaincomeback career (haven't actually researched that, just my gut feeling): he definitely needed to mature as a QB in early 2000s
@captaincomeback which is to your point: he played situational smart. I'd argue most of Manning's "bad" performances came earlier in his
@captaincomeback what is hilarious about that 2006 Ravens game (which Trotter pointed to)-Ray Lewis gushed about Manning's play in that game
