Scott Kacsmar completes his opus on the historical oddities that make up the Colts' 9-10 playoff record in the Peyton Manning era.

Rather than succumb to the Irsay/Manning soap opera, let’s take one final, in-depth look at the intricacies that have led to the 9-10 playoff record the Indianapolis Colts have in the Peyton Manning era.  

After Peyton’s brother Eli picked up his second Super Bowl ring by vanquishing rival Tom Brady again, it’s still topical to compare the three in the playoffs. Rather than doing that directly, we’re going to continue our look at another key area in which the Colts did well in the playoffs – partially at least – but still have that 9-10 record.   

It’s that same 9-10 record that Manning has been branded with by some; making him wear it like a scarlet letter of shame.   

But how much shame should Peyton Manning feel as an individual for his efforts? He led the Colts to the playoffs in 11 of his last 12 (healthy) seasons. No other quarterback has ever done that. There were some excruciating losses on the road from 2002-04. They lost to the Jets 41-0 in a real clusterfu…function of poor team preparation and execution. Then there were the infamous losses at New England in the snow. That’s the same Foxboro where almost no one wins, especially back in 2003-04 (19-0 at home).  

But other than that stretch (which still included three impressive wins), he kept the team competitive in every game. As you’ll soon see, the Colts were historically competitive in the playoffs under Manning.  

The shame should be on the group of writers, experts, radio hosts, fans, and any other media source that never took the time to look at anything beyond the win-loss record. Even the smallest bit of analysis will show you that something doesn’t add up. The performance of the quarterback comes nowhere close to matching the record of the team.

It never truly does, but in the case of Manning’s Colts, it has taken a most unusual set of circumstances to produce that 9-10 record. 

Recap of the First Two Oddities

The first Colts’ postseason oddity was when we looked at turnovers. Not turning the ball over has been a winning formula for the rest of the league; 48-5 (.906) in the playoffs since 1998. But for the Colts, it’s led to a stunning 1-5 (.167) record. To make it more confusing, the Colts were a league-best 38-2 (.950) in the regular season from 1998-2010 when they had no turnovers on offense. 

How about a new fact? No quarterback has lost more playoff games (min. 15 attempts) when throwing zero interceptions than Peyton Manning (5 games). Ron Jaworski and Dave Krieg are tied for second with three losses. That’s no mirage either. How about that other turnover known as fumbles? Manning has lost just one in his career (3 fumbles total in 19 playoff games). It was a handoff to Joseph Addai in Super Bowl XLI, but Chicago snuffed it out and Addai never got the ball cleanly.  

Next we looked at home playoff losses. Historically, home teams win 67.6% of the time in the playoffs. Manning’s Colts are 6-4 (.600), or one game under average. But those four home playoff losses are the most by any quarterback in their career. However, none of the other 27 quarterbacks with multiple home losses had a smaller margin of defeat (2.75 points/game) or a higher passer rating (88.2) than Peyton Manning in those games. 

It all comes back to our final point of interest, and that is fourth quarter comebacks.  

Colts: Not Holding the Lead

Writing for the Cold, Hard Football Facts, I looked at and recapped all 137 playoff games (out of 482 all-time) that were won with a score in the fourth quarter or overtime. You can find the link to the Super Bowl here, which has all the corresponding links at the bottom.  

Shameless plug: if you’ve never read any Captain Comeback articles and are already missing football, I have well over 100,000 words in those links for you to absorb.

So out of 482 playoff games, 28.4% of them were won in the fourth quarter/overtime. In the 19 playoff games for Manning’s Colts, 6 of them were decided that fashion. That’s 31.6%, which is right in the ballpark of the average. What’s not normal is the Colts having a 1-5 record in those games. 

Having all this research on the winners gave me an idea: what about the teams that kept losing games late? 

Out of the 137 games, 101 of them featured a fourth quarter comeback. In other words, 101 times a team has led in the fourth quarter of a playoff game, but ultimately lost the game. One of those games featured Doug Williams throwing an interception for a go-ahead touchdown by the Dallas Cowboys in the 1982 NFC Wild Card.  

Taking that game out of consideration, and you have a nice round number of 100 as the number of times a defense gave up the lead in a fourth quarter comeback. Two games were won with a non-offensive score (Music City Miracle and Matt Hasselbeck “scoring” in Green Bay), but that’s fine for our analysis. They still had to come back in the fourth, quarter on offense. 

In looking at those 100 games, there were 16 quarterbacks that had at least two losses due to a fourth quarter comeback by the opponent. These numbers were adjusted for who the QB actually was in the fourth quarter rather than just the game’s starter. That means Ken Stabler, who replaced Daryle Lamonica and scored a go-ahead touchdown before the Immaculate Reception, is the player that gets credit for the loss here.   

Disclaimer: these are games lost when leading in the fourth quarter. These are not the number of failed fourth quarter comeback opportunities by the listed QB (more on that later).  

Most 4^th Quarter Comeback Losses

No quarterback in NFL history has lost more playoff games (5) after leading in the fourth quarter than Peyton Manning.

That is half of the playoff losses for the Colts in his career. After winning Super Bowl XLI, the Colts led in the fourth quarter of each playoff defeat from 2007 to 2010: AFC Divisional vs. San Diego, AFC Wild Card at San Diego, Super Bowl XLIV vs. New Orleans, and AFC Wild Card vs. New York Jets. 

The four straight seasons of losing a fourth quarter lead in the playoffs is also a NFL record. The Colts also failed to hold a 17-10 lead in Miami in the 2000 AFC Wild Card game; losing in overtime 23-17.  

Notice some of the other more criticized quarterbacks in the postseason make the list, with Warren Moon coming in second. The Oilers had a fourth quarter lead in three straight seasons (1991-93) before losing in heart-breaking fashion each time.  

All three of Tom Brady’s losses have come at the hands of the Manning brothers (2006 AFC Championship, Super Bowl’s XLII and XLVI).  

Some criticized players include active starters like Tony Romo and Philip Rivers, the beleaguered “chokers” of old in Bobby Hebert and Neil O’Donnell, the Martyball-era field general from Cleveland (Bernie Kosar), Hall of Fame/Class of ‘83 legends Dan Marino and Jim Kelly, and a guy named Favre. 

Why So Many Blown Leads for Manning’s Colts?

Part of the reason is few teams have ever had as many fourth quarter leads to blow as the Colts. We know they’ve lost four home playoff games by a combined 11 points, but they’ve also lost two road games in overtime (by the same 23-17 score), and Super Bowl XLIV, despite the final score, was a very close game. 

To put it into context, I looked at all 32 teams and found what was their longest streak of consecutive playoff games with a fourth quarter lead.  

Not surprisingly, the Colts tie the modern Pittsburgh Steelers for the longest streaks in history at 10 games. The Colts’ streak actually started in 2006, a year after that epic loss to the Steelers in the 2005 AFC Divisional game (which is part of Pittsburgh’s streak). The difference is the Steelers went 9-1 in their games, while the Colts were just 6-4.  

This also means Peyton Manning and Ben Roethlisberger are the only quarterbacks in NFL history to have their team leading in the fourth quarter of 10 consecutive playoff games. 

If you’re wondering where Tom Brady (10-0 to start his playoff career) and Bart Starr (9 straight playoff wins after losing his first start) are, then let me remind you of some often forgotten history. 

The reason Green Bay’s streak is eight from the Favre era and not 9 (or 10) from the Lombardi era has to do with the Colts. In the 1965 NFL Divisional playoffs, the Packers hosted the Colts.

This is the famous game where Tom Matte, a running back, had to start at quarterback for the Colts due to injuries. But he wasn’t the only injured quarterback that day. Bart Starr went down after one play from scrimmage with a rib injury. He was replaced by Zeke Bratkowski, who went the rest of the way for Green Bay. The Packers needed a late field goal to force overtime, where they won 13-10.  

Even if Green Bay had led in the fourth quarter (not counting overtime here), Starr still would not have gotten credit as he was not the quarterback of record in the fourth quarter. That was the fourth playoff start by Starr, meaning his longest streak of fourth quarter leads in the playoffs is six games. 

Meanwhile, Brady’s playoff career began with the infamous “Tuck Rule” game against Oakland. New England never led in the fourth quarter; tying the game late after the Tuck
Rule and Adam Vinatieri’s amazing 45-yard field goal in the snow. They won in overtime 16-13. That’s why Brady’s streak is not 10 games. 

The reason it wouldn’t even be 9 games is what happened the very next week. In Pittsburgh, Brady was injured in the second quarter and replaced by Drew Bledsoe for the remainder of the game. At the time New England led 7-3 on a punt return touchdown by Troy Brown. They held on for a 24-17 win, but it was Bledsoe, not Brady, that played the majority of the game. 

Starr and Brady have the two longest winning streaks in postseason history, but you never hear it acknowledged that Zeke Bratkowski and Drew Bledsoe had to step in early on in those streaks to keep them alive with close wins after those starters contributed no points to the offense. 

Why Didn’t Manning Lead More Playoff Comebacks?

If the Colts were losing so many leads and playing so many close games, it means Manning probably had several chances to win with a comeback of his own. So why does the owner of 34 fourth quarter comebacks in the regular season (most all time for the regular season) have just one in the playoffs (2006 AFC Championship)? After all, some of these five losses wouldn’t have happened if the Colts went on their own comeback and/or game-winning drive? 

Let’s go to the game tape and see what happened on a game-by-game basis.  

1999 AFC Divisional vs. Tennessee (L 19-16) – The Colts trailed 16-9 early in the fourth quarter. After a run for no gain by Edgerrin James, Manning threw two incompletions for a three and out. His pass on 3^rd and 10 was dropped by Jerome Pathon. On the next drive, penalties for a false start and holding forced a 3^rd and 22. Manning, under pressure, got off a pass downfield to Marvin Harrison, but he dropped what would have been a big first down gain. Tennessee added a field goal, making it 19-9 with 4:19 left. Manning’s fourth down pass went through Edge’s hands, ending another drive. After an Eddie George fumble, Manning led a 61-yard touchdown drive, running it in for his own 15-yard score. But the Colts were unable to recover the onside kick and Tennessee ran out the clock. 

2000 AFC Wild Card at Miami (L 23-17 OT) – After the Dolphins added a field goal to pull within 14-10, the Colts went on a 45-yard drive that ended with Mike Vanderjagt’s 50-yard field goal. They led 17-10 with 4:55 left. However, Jay Fiedler would lead an 80-yard touchdown drive to tie the game with 0:34 left. Manning handed the ball off to Edge for a 3-yard gain as the Colts let the clock expire for overtime. After Miami punted, Manning drove the Colts to a 3^rd and 12 at the MIA 42. He completed an 11-yard pass to Harrison, but Miami was offsides. Rather than take the penalty and make it 3^rd and 7, Coach Jim Mora put his confidence in Vanderjagt, who just recently made a 50-yard field goal. The 49-yard attempt was embarrassingly wide right. Miami drove 61 yards for the game-winning touchdown. Manning’s lone attempt was a missed field goal. 

2003 AFC Championship at New England (L 24-14) – After a miserable four interception day, the Colts were still hanging around in the fourth quarter. Down 21-7, Manning led a 67-yard touchdown drive to make it 21-14 with 2:27 left. Tom Brady would throw incomplete passes on second and third down, and the Colts actually had a chance to tie. They needed 80 yards and had 2:01 to go with two timeouts. After two incompletions, Manning went to TE Marcus Pollard on both third and fourth down. He was held on each play, but no flag was thrown. New England would take over on downs, and added a field goal to effectively end the game at 24-14. This game was the poster child for the NFL reinforcing illegal contact, as the league even (quietly) admitted they missed the calls on Pollard. While it’s unlikely Manning would have completed the drive on that day, he really wasn’t given a fair shot at it. 

2005 AFC Divisional vs. Pittsburgh (L 21-18) – In the battle of rest vs. rust, the Colts dug themselves a deep 21-3 hole to start the fourth quarter. But after a 50-yard touchdown to Dallas Clark and a bad call on a Troy Polamalu interception, the Colts trailed just 21-18 with 2:31 left. Manning had the ball at his own 18, only needing a field goal to tie. After barely getting the ball away on first down, Manning was sacked by Joey Porter on second down. Two plays later it was Porter again right off the snap, sacking Manning on 4^th and 16 in what looked like a game-clincher. But the Colts still had three timeouts, so Bill Cowher ran the ball. He didn’t expect Jerome Bettis to fumble it on the first play, but he did. Nick Harper, involved in a stabbing incident with his wife the night before the game, picked up the ball and took off. But instead of running down the sideline for a touchdown, he kept in the middle of the field where Ben Roethlisberger was able to tackle him. Manning completed two passes for 30 yards, but his long pass in the end zone to Reggie Wayne was broken up by rookie Bryant McFadden. The Colts settled for a 46-yard field goal by Mike Vanderjagt, but just like five years earlier, this kick was embarrassingly wide right with 0:17 left. There would be no overtime, or opportunity to complete the biggest fourth quarter comeback in playoff history. 

2007 AFC Divisional vs. San Diego (L 28-24) – The Colts fell behind 21-17 on the final play of the third quarter. But if there was any good news, it would be that Philip Rivers had to leave the game with an injury, forcing backup Billy Volek into the game. The Colts punted on their first drive of the quarter. Volek’s first possession ended with a three and out. On a 3^rd and 9, Manning found rookie Anthony Gonzalez open on the left sideline, and he managed to stay in bounds and take it 55 yards for a go-ahead touchdown with 10:07 left. But even with Volek in the game, the Chargers were able to engineer a 78-yard touchdown drive, capped off by Volek’s rushing touchdown. The Colts trailed 28-24 with 4:45 left. Manning completed his first four passes of the drive, but the Colts would find themselves facing a 4^th and 5. He found Clark for a 16-yard gain, plus a facemask penalty. After a short run on first down, Manning threw three straight incompletions at the SD 7, all on passes to Addai. Shawne Merriman pressured Manning on fourth down and he was unable to make a good pass that would have picked up the touchdown. With one last shot, Manning had 1:30, one timeout and needed 68 yards. His third down pass found Reggie Wayne at midfield, but it was a tough catch and Wayne was drilled on the play, dropping the ball and getting injured in the process. With Wayne and Harrison out, Manning’s best option on 4^th and 5 was Clark. But Clark was unable to make the catch, and it was a quick four and out for the Colts. 

2008 AFC Wild Card at San Diego (L 23-17 OT) – Leading 17-14 to start the fourth quarter, the Colts intercepted Philip Rivers. The offense burned six minutes of clock, but the drive stalled after a holding penalty on Tony Ugoh. The next time the Colts got the ball back, they were pinned at their own 1 thanks to Mike Scifre’s punt of the night. With a 3^rd and 2 at the SD 9, the Colts could have converted for a game-clinching first down. The problem was rookie TE Gijon Robinson forgot the snap count, and LB Tim Dobbins was easily able to get to Manning for the sack. San Diego would kick the field goal to tie it. The Colts got the ball with 0:24 left at their own 19. With the yardage needed and time left, that’s not very realistic to expect any scoring (see One-Minute Drills). The game would go to overtime, and San Diego won the coin toss. They went 75
yards for a touchdown, and the Colts never got to answer. 

Super Bowl XLIV vs. New Orleans (L 31-17) – As the Colts led 17-16 in the fourth quarter, Matt Stover attempted a 51-yard field goal. He was wide left, and the Saints went 59 yards for the go-ahead score. Manning trailed 24-17 with 5:35 left at his own 30. The drive started with a false start by Ryan Diem. Manning would complete 4/5 passes for 44 yards. After an incompletion to Austin Collie, Manning went to Wayne on a trusted route in the offense, but Tracy Porter read the play and beat Wayne to the ball, returning it 74 yards for a touchdown with 3:12 left. The last drive would end with Wayne not hauling in a 4^th and goal catch from the NO 5.  

2010 AFC Wild Card vs. New York Jets (L 17-16) – With the Colts leading 10-7 to start the fourth quarter, the Jets completed a 17-play, 87-yard drive for the go-ahead touchdown. The Colts would go on a 67-yard drive, but settled for a Vinatieri field goal. After a New York punt, Manning had 2:36 left at his own 20. He completed four passes for 41 yards, before throwing just incomplete to Blair White on third down. Vinatieri kicked the 50-yard field goal, and unlike Vanderjagt, he made it right down the middle for a 16-14 lead with 0:53 left. But the Jets would get a big kick return by Antonio Cromartie to the NYJ 46. Four plays later, Coach Jim Caldwell called a bad timeout, and the Jets designed an 18-yard pass play from Mark Sanchez to Braylon Edwards. Nick Folk kicked the 32-yard game-winning field goal with no time left for a 17-16 win. It’s one of only two games in playoff history where the lead changed twice in the final minute. 

Eight close and tough losses.  

Do you see what’s missing? Where are all the “back-breaking turnovers” people reference? It did happen in the Super Bowl, the biggest loss of them all. But that’s one game, and a fairly recent one.  

It’s also the only turnover. Sure, there were turnover on downs at times, but not in the common form of an interception, which is why the Tracy Porter play is a stunning result. It’s the lone example of Manning turning the ball over in the fourth quarter of a close (0-8 point difference) game in the postseason.  

Yet somehow Manning gets the Brett Favre treatment from some. Favre is the only quarterback that had more game-winning drives (6) against his teams than Manning has in the playoffs. He’s also the only quarterback with more overtime losses (3). But if you look at how it happened, there’s a clear difference.  

In all three of Favre’s overtime playoff losses, his last pass attempt was a bad interception. Favre threw an interception in the fourth quarter or overtime in five of those six losses. There’s no comparison here.  

There are some other things that did happen to Manning multiple times that are worth noting, such as Vanderjagt’s big misses, the two overtime losses, the critical drive-ending drops, and two lost comebacks. 

What’s a lost comeback? It’s a game where the quarterback met all the requirements for a fourth quarter comeback, except the team still lost the game because they lost the lead again. Manning had lost comebacks against the 2007 Chargers and 2010 Jets, which may very well end up being his final game and drive for the Colts. 

That was significant, because it is yet another “record” for Manning in the playoffs. Out of the 101 games won with a fourth quarter comeback, there were 34 of them where each team took the lead at least once in the final quarter. That means there are 34 lost comebacks in playoff history. It’s happened to a lot of the greatest quarterbacks once. But it’s only happened to one quarterback twice. 

Peyton Manning is the only quarterback in NFL history with two lost comebacks in the playoffs.

That’s two wasted efforts the Colts had at home, and against one offense led by Billy Volek, and then after allowing that big return to Cromartie in the final minute against the Jets.  

What about the Other Teams?

Yes, the Colts did win a Super Bowl this past decade, and were consistently one of the toughest outs in playoff history. Yet, you wouldn’t get that sense if you listened to some of the sludge out there. 

Was there a lot of backlash for the 12-4 Pittsburgh Steelers when they lost to Tim Tebow’s 8-8 Broncos this year? Not really. Yet they only gave up 31.6 yards per completion to what many consider the worst passer in football. The loss was eerily similar to how the 12-4 Colts lost in overtime to the 8-8 Chargers in 2008, which was certainly not more embarrassing than the defending champion New Orleans Saints losing to the 7-9 Seattle Seahawks, right? See, it can happen to anyone.  

A lot gets made of the Colts going one and done so often. Well, it happened to the Green Bay Packers this year, and they were Super Bowl favorites since the preseason. They not only lost at home, but they lost by 17 points, or 6 more points than Manning’s four home playoff losses combined. Aaron Rodgers and Green Bay also went one and done two years ago in Arizona after losing the game in overtime on a turnover returned for a touchdown off their star quarterback. Interesting. 

Also interesting how much was made of the 6 (or 8; depends who you ask) drops by the Packers against the Giants. That did happen. But where was the mention of this when it happened to Manning’s receivers against the 1999 Titans (7 drops), 2002 Jets (7-8 drops) and 2004 Patriots (6 drops)?  

Then you have the New England Patriots, who some people still haven’t turned the calendar over
from February 2005. Since then, the Patriots have managed to: 

• Turn the ball over 5 times in Denver (highlighted by a Champ Bailey red zone interception returned 100 yards).
• Blow the biggest lead in NFL Championship Game history (21-3) to Manning’s Colts.
• Score just 14 points in the monster upset that was Super Bowl XLII (beat Giants 38-35 in regular season finale in New York).
• Lose by 19 points at home to the Baltimore Ravens with three Brady turnovers in the first quarter (beat Ravens 27-21 in regular season).
• With the best record in the league, lose at home, 28-21, to the Jets after beating them 45-3 as part of an 8-game winning streak (37.4 PPG). Brady ended his no-interception streak on the first drive.
• Score just 17 points and lose their third straight game to Eli Manning’s Giants, who bookended New England’s 10-game winning streak (averaged 35.9 PPG).

That’s a significant portion of the last decade of playoff football summed up right there. If all these other teams and quarterbacks have such holes on the playoff resume, then why are the Colts and Manning still a lightning rod for playoff criticism? 

Conclusion: Don’t Be a Lazy Analyst

We just verified a lot of new “playoff records” for Peyton Manning. But they’re the type of records you don’t want to have your name on, because they are about losing playoff games. 

But wait just a second.  

If you keep putting your name on record after record that read “[Quarterback] with the most playoff losses despite [something positive for the quarterback]”, then doesn’t that list of records speak more strongly for the player than 9-10? 

It’s a shame the 9-10 record is brought up before the 11 playoff appearances in 12 years (no matter how incomplete or flawed the Colts were) or the two Super Bowl appearances and one championship win.  

So why all the criticism? 

One, people must think he’s pretty damn good, so expectation can’t be any higher. That’s reasonable. It would have been considered a miracle if Alex Smith won a playoff game this year, which he did, just because he’s Alex Smith. There’s no expectation there. Peyton Manning is expected to win multiple Super Bowls simply because of how good he is. 

But, expectations aren’t the main factor. It is classic perception versus reality, and perception has been dominating this particular battle long before Manning started his first game with the Colts. 

“Can’t win the big one” goes back to the University of Tennessee and the 0-3 record against Florida. 39-6 as a starter, but half the losses were to Steve Spurrier’s great Florida Gator teams. That right there basically sums up the whole story. 

Lazy analysis has always been to point to the team record, not to what Peyton did individually. There were bad moments against Florida, just as there were bad moments against Bill Belichick’s Patriots. But there were also good moments, and plays where some of those other dozens of players on the team made a mistake.   But it always comes back to Peyton, some how, some way.  

The 9-10 record is just the latest crutch for those who would rather not analyze what actually happened in the games. How will perception ever lose if reality is never even given a chance?  

I didn’t spend 5,000 words talking about what should have happened for Manning’s Colts in the playoffs, what would have happened, and what could have happened if things went differently. 

I talked about the facts of what did happen. I looked at what Manning did, along with what his teammates and the opponent did in those games. Now what’s stopping anyone else from doing the same? 

It’s only when you put it all together that 9-10 makes sense. If you’re just looking at the quarterback, 9-10 shouldn’t even be on your mind. That’s just being lazy.   

Scott Kacsmar is a football researcher/writer who has contributed large quantities of data to Pro-Football-Reference.com, including the only standardized database of fourth quarter comebacks and game-winning drives. When it comes to lazy football analysis, he’s as mad as hell, and he’s not going to take that anymore! *Network. You can send any questions or comments to Scott at This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it. and you can follow him on Twitter at @CaptainComeback.

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FRANK AIELLO 5pts

VERY GOOD ARTICLE AND YOUR RESEARCH IS FANTASTIC!!!

JaredMalott 5pts 1 Like

Frankly, it's more about the defense not being able to stop people late in the game from scoring than it is about Peyton Manning "failing to make a comeback happen". If our defense hadn't allowed things like 80-yard fourth quarter touchdown drives by Billy Volek, we wouldn't be here. Now that it appears more and more everyday like Peyton's time is up, maybe with this quarterback (presumably Andrew Luck), the Colts will build a respectable defense who won't give away the lead in the fourth quarter. I'm tired of people being either Manning apologists or Manning "haters" when neither argument is really that big of a deal. It's more about a bad defensive scheme.

vinylsoundsgood 5pts

Bob86 also needs to keep in mind that he is comparing records and stats of a ton of regular season games to a much smaller 19 playoff game sampling. It's much easier to nit-pick the playoff data and talk about the '08 San Diego playoff game rather than Week 7 of the 2007 season. That one playoff game has a huge impact on a 19 game W-L record. A much bigger impact than the '09 49er game has on any regular season W-L record or 4th Qtr comeback stat. And when that playoff W-L record is going to be used by a lazy nation media talking head to bash your QB, I don't see a problem with taking exception to it. Furthermore, I have never seen anybody thumping their chest on this site about Manning's regular season W-L record.

vinylsoundsgood 5pts

Please forward this article to Bob Kravitz and Tony Kornheiser.

CaptainComeback 5pts

@ErikFrenz I had to break down and look up what "MT" meant on Twitter, and now I know

MikeET86 5pts

@captaincomeback @ErikFrenz The more you know! Because knowledge is Power!

naptown_ninja 5pts

Great read.

degjohn 5pts

see

http://www.pro-football-reference.com/blog/?p=8700

I think field position and lack of possessions are most important thing. Easier to overcome in regular season against poor teams.

Up until this Super Bowl Manning/Colts had the two worst average field positions in history of playoffs (San Diego 2008 and New Orleans Super Bowl). Brady/Pats now replaced NO Super Bowl as the second worst average field position ever. Brady/Pats had very similar results (scored 17 points and lost fairly close game).

2003-2004 Pats were a better team playing at home in weather favorable to them. 2005 was the one really terrible loss as that was the best Indy Colts team ever.

smonroe 5pts

Great article. This is why I love this site. You're "just being lazy" comment is spot on when describing most so called journalists.

Goéland 5pts

I just read this, Scott, and I need to tell you, it´s outstandingly good. I love your articles. That is all.

ScottKacsmar 5pts

A whole article could be written about the special teams, I believe. Even in XLI, they were terrible. Bears aren't in that game without the Indy special teams. Hester's return, a botched XP, a missed FG.

dmstorm22 5pts

@ScottKacsmar That botched extra point cost me $150 in the boxes Super Bowl game. I had 7-4 as one of mine. If the Colts just make that extra point, it is 7-14 after the 1st and 17-14 at the half.

Bob86 5pts

@ScottKacsmar And regarding SB 41, The Bears may not be in that game without Indy's poor special teams play, BUT, are the Colts in the game without Chicago's FIVE 3 & outs, a fumbled kickoff return, a Benson fumble, a Grossman fumble, and two Grossman INTs including a pick-six? (And Manning was on the bench during ALL of those happenings, mind you).

Fondue 5pts

@Bob86@ScottKacsmar Nobody's saying Manning carried the team on his back that day. Just that the special teams unit in particular sucked hard, as they have done literally every playoff game I can remember.

Payton 5pts 2 Like

@Bob86@Fondue@ScottKacsmar Mike Vandershank at GW or Game tying FGA?

Bob86 5pts

@Fondue@ScottKacsmar I would argue that nothing in the history of mankind has sucked harder than the Bears' offense in Super Bowl 41.

Bob86 5pts

@ScottKacsmar And the same could be said for the 2008 game against Houston where Sage Rosenfels decided to morph into a circus clown with 3:50 to go and a 27-17 lead. Rosenclown promptly fumbled after inexplicably jumping into the air, trying to get the first down, and Brackett takes it in for a TD (Manning was on the bench, mind you). 27-24, Texans. Then he gets strip-sacked at his own 20 with 2:40 to go, handing Manning a very short field and the win. But yet, Manning gets ALL the credit for another amazing 4th quarter comeback? Really? Something just seems a little OFF about all of this QB credit/blame stuff...

Kyle Rodriguez moderator 5pts 1 Like

@Bob86@ScottKacsmar You seem to be confused about 4QC/GWDs. Nobody has ever said that every one of those is ALL due to the quarterback. It's merely a stat. It's like saying "I can't believe you give ALL the credit for those 346 yards to the quarterback, if his receiver hadn't caught the ball he wouldn't have any!"

Obviously, we all know that ALL the credit doesn't go to the quarterback. But that shouldn't take away from the fact that they did a good job. For example: SF game, Manning led a great drive to get them in scoring position, then called a great play for the game winner. The Colts ran out the clock for the rest of the game. In the Houston game, yes, the defense played a huge part, but Manning also orchestrated an 81 yard drive to score a TD with 4 mins left, and then threw the game winning TD. Obviously, he had help, but to discount the comeback simply because he had help is silly.

vinylsoundsgood 5pts

@Bob86@dmstorm22@Fondue@Kyle Rodriguez I've always thought the QB win-loss stat was mind numbingly stupid. I've never understood it.

ScottKacsmar 5pts

@Bob86@dmstorm22@Fondue@Kyle RodriguezI did the work for both of those parts on PFR. It's not a matter of placing importance on those stats for the QB, it's a matter of getting the right information on them, so if anyone's even going to try putting importance on it, they at least have the right data.

The QB starts were a mess before then. They still are pre-merger. I changed Fran Tarkenton's record, which once was the NFL record for most wins. Unitas is another one that needs changed. I haven't done this one alone, as others have contributed and still contribute (Ken Pullis & Clark Heins to name a few). Just getting the right records is enough of a chore.

I really don't see what those stats have to do with this. If you wanted me to analyze Manning's GWD's & 4QC's, I could do that too, and will be doing that in the future. But that's not the topic here. We're talking about the playoffs, and what happened there.

Bob86 5pts

@dmstorm22@Fondue@Kyle Rodriguez Kacsmar seems to think 4QCs and GWDs are a real stat for QBs (see profootballreference) which leads me to believe he also thinks W-L is a QB stat. I don't really have a problem with any of that, but I find it laughable that he would spend this much effort absolving Manning of blame for most of the 10 postseason losses (fine with me too) but not any effort crediting the Colts as a team for those 4QCs and GWDs. Can't have it both ways.

dmstorm22 5pts

@Bob86@Fondue@Kyle Rodriguez Who on this site, in this thread, has given you the impression that Wins and Losses should be a real stat for QBs?

Bob86 5pts

@dmstorm22@Fondue@Kyle Rodriguez Then you're one of the rational-thinking ones. Too bad you're in the minority.

dmstorm22 5pts

@Bob86@Fondue@Kyle Rodriguez Very few Colts fans on this site think W/L record should be attributed to QBs. I don't think that should be a stat column on a QBs page on p-f-r. I never talk about Manning's 115 wins in a decade. I definitely talk about the Colts winning more games in a decade than any team ever.

Bob86 5pts

@dmstorm22@Fondue@Kyle Rodriguez It's marked? Where? I don't see any mark pertaining to the defense at all.

Bob86 5pts

@Fondue@Kyle Rodriguez I agree, but the same could be said for Manning's 35 4QCs and 46 GWDs. "35 and 46! They all must've been because Manning is so awesome!" I think we all realize how incredibly small the percentage of NFL fans is that would actually take the time and interest to find out this sort of information. What's Scott gonna do, send out flyers on this?

I find it interesting that, also on Manning's PFR page, in bold font, are the numbers 141-67-0 under "QBrec". Which is fine with me. That's how it should be. But what Colts fans are worried about the context regarding THAT? None are, and it's the same with Manning's "115 wins in a decade" NFL record. I don't hear any Colts fans concerning themselves with the context of that record. But yet this 9-10 thing just drives them crazy. To the point where they need to write a 5,000-word essay in order to unburden themselves from the shackles of the possibility that Manning might be considered a mediocre postseason QB.

dmstorm22 5pts

@Bob86@Fondue@Kyle Rodriguez No one is parsing those types of plays. What we are saying is that if his kicker badly misses a field goal, then it that situation IT IS NOT MANNING'S FAULT. Or, if the TE forgets the snap count IT IS NOT MANNINGS FAULT. About the 4QC/GWD thing. No one cites that as much as the 9-10 thing is sighted. That said, sure, some of those drives are due to defensive scores and the like. The drives that the winning score was due to defense is actually marked on that very same p-f-r page.

Fondue 5pts 1 Like

@Bob86@Fondue@Kyle Rodriguez For your example, ideally we would see the footage but since that's not always possible I think all you can do is say that most studies have shown that sacks are the QB's fault after 3 seconds. So they would be on Peyton. Period, Amen.

As to the general point, all we can do is reasonably estimate where the line gets drawn. I'd rather a lot of thought get put into it and actually take context into account rather than everybody throw their hands in the air and say "Ten losses! They all must have been the QB's fault!". It's not an exact science and of course no consensus can ever be reached with something like that, but hopefully through all these efforts and with everyone being as objective and honest as possible we can at least paint the broad picture of Manning's playoff record not being at all indicative of his overall play.

Bob86 5pts

@Fondue@Kyle Rodriguez But it's not a case-by-case basis, it ultimately comes down to a play-by-play basis and even a moment-by-moment basis, because on every single play in the NFL, there is 100 different things happening that factor into the result of the play. What if he gets sacked in 3.2 seconds or 3.7 seconds? Is that on Manning or do you blame his O-line or credit the DE? Or both? Or neither? That's what I mean when I say where do you draw the line? And who's to say where that line gets drawn? At some point it becomes ridiculous.

Fondue 5pts

@Bob86@Kyle Rodriguez You're exaggerating though. I feel like Scott did a pretty good job of describing what happened without explicitly assigning blame to either party. If Peyton throws a good ball that gets dropped, then that's not on him. If he gets sacked in 1.5 seconds on a crucial third or fourth down and he doesn't even have a chance to make a play, that's not on him. You have to take it on a case-by-case basis, and things like drops and sacks under three seconds are factors that not even Brady and Montana in all their clutchness glory could help.

Bob86 5pts

@Fondue@Kyle Rodriguez Oh there are plenty of Colts/Manning fans that glorify the 4QC GWD thing. Although it's not a record for Peyton. According to the author of this piece, Marino holds the records for both 4QCs and GWDs.

The point is, as far as assigning credit or blame to any of these great QBs is a slippery slope to say the least. Where do you draw the line? "Well on this play, Peyton threw slightly behind his receiver and the pass was a bit wobbly but he made a great catch, so Peyton only gets 36.4% of the credit there... On this other play Peyton threw an INT, but he was slightly pressured by the DE because the LG didn't hold his block long enough and the ball was tipped by the MLB's index finger which threw off his intended receiver, so Peyton should only receive 67.8% of the blame there...

Yes, it is really that silly when you think about it.

Fondue 5pts

@Bob86@Kyle Rodriguez Nobody glorifies the comeback record though. At least not in significant numbers like 9-10. It's not something that often gets blown out of proportion. And even if it did, you just pointed out a couple of outliers that tended to be the exceptions rather than the norm. Yeah, a few of those drives DID have huge contributions from the defense that made it possible. That doesn't make it the typical Manning comeback. But I'm all for context and if you want to document all of Peyton's in context vs. all of Brady's or something then I'd be all ears. If Peyton's getting undue credit on a regular basis then that's something sports fans should know about as well.

Bob86 5pts

@Kyle Rodriguez So if Peyton's 9-10 postseason record calls for a 5,000-word essay on exactly why most of that wasn't Peyton's fault, then where is the extensive fact-finding 5,000-word essay on the "real story" behind Peyton's 35 4QCs and 46 GWDs? You know, the one where a lot of the credit goes to Peyton's teammates?

Because, y'know, you go on profootballreference and go to Manning's page and click on "Comebacks & GW Drives" and there it is in a giant green & white heading: "35 4th quarter comebacks, 46 game-winning drives" followed by a listing of his stats for each game. Wow, that's pretty in-depth isn't it?

But if you're just looking at the quarterback, 35 & 46 shouldn't even be on your mind. That's just being lazy.

Bob86 5pts

@Kyle Rodriguez I notice that wins and losses are also a quarterback stat. Must be because they are the field general. Oh, but suddenly that 9-10 postseason record doesn't work for Colts fans because it puts Peyton in a negative light, as opposed to the 35 4th-quarter comebacks and 46 game-winning drives, which puts Peyton in a very positive light.

So let me get this straight, when the Colts have a GWD/4QC largely due to two forced turnovers and a defensive TD or even when the team as a whole plays well, Peyton deserves most of the credit "because he's awesome".

But when the Colts lose, then that calls for an extensive, fact-finding mission to absolve him of as much blame as humanly possible.

Y'know, "because he's awesome".

Kyle Rodriguez moderator 5pts

@Bob86 Yes, Come backs and GWD are a quarterback stat. Rushing yards are a running back stat. Both players need other players (OL, etc.) to make it happen, but we generally recognize it for one player. The quarterback gets it for GWD and 4QC because they are the field general. That's how it works.

You're using a lot of general terms to vent. I'm really not sure what your point is. As has been said numerous times on this thread, nobody has a problem blaming Manning when he plays poorly. However, most of the time, he hasn't. We're Colts fans. We've watched him every week. We get pissed when people come in and throw 9-10 around when they clearly don't have an understanding of how the Colts have worked for the last 13 years. Manning *usually* does deserve more credit and less blame. Not always, but usually, because he's awesome.

Bob86 5pts

@Kyle Rodriguez@ScottKacsmar Well, when you go to profootballreference and you see a heading for "Comebacks & GW drives" ONLY on the pages of quarterbacks, what other conclusion are you supposed to draw from that? Oh, it's merely a STAT. Oh, ok... How silly of me! Of COURSE they did a good job, that's not in question here. The point is, when the Colts lose, everyone is rushing around finding scapegoats that aren't named Peyton Manning. When the Colts win a game where they were behind at any time in the 4th quarter, then, no matter how it happened, it's THIS much Peyton and (this) much the rest of the team. It's just a LITTLE too skewed towards the QB, coming from people who always preach how much of a TEAM sport it is.

Bob86 5pts

@ScottKacsmar I respect the research you've done here and it has a certain validity to it, but like I've said, you could probably find a half dozen factors on any given play in an NFL game that contributes to the outcome of that play. It brings to mind your huge writeup on profootballreference about 4QC/GWDs where one of Manning's 4QCs happened in the 2009 game vs the 49ers: SF up 14-12, and on the first play of the 4th quarter, Addai throws a 22-yard TD pass to Wayne. That was it for the scoring, Colts won 18-14. And MANNING gets credit for another amazing "4th quarter comeback". WHY? Because he happened to be the starting QB of the winning team? It literally makes no sense.

ScottKacsmar 5pts 1 Like

@Bob86 In general a 4QC/GWD will feature a contribution from the QB. But it's still like any stat, which means you can pick up some cheap ones, or ones you don't exactly deserve, or miss out on ones you do deserve because someone screwed up (Vanderjagt). That's no different than throwing a TD pass after a tipped ball or an INT after a tipped ball.

As for your SF example, well this is still a drive stat, not a scoring-play stat. Manning was 4/6 for 30 yards. The third play of the drive was 3rd & 5 at the IND 35. Manning threw an 11-yard pass to Wayne. Without that, the drive is a three and out and there is no Addai-to-Wayne TD to start the quarter.

I can safely say Manning contributed to all of his 4th QT wins. I have 28 drives where he threw for less than 20 yards. Of those 28 drives, he had 4 with a GW TD pass. He had one GW TD run of his own. Three were for GW FG drives. One more was a TD by Edge. One was a go ahead (not GW) FG that Manning didn't do anything on. The other 18 drives were punts & turnovers.

A game like 2008 Cleveland, when they won on a fumble return TD, note I don't count that for the QB/offense.

These are drive stats, for the offense, put into the name of the QB because you need some kind of indicator that goes beyond just the team's name.

dmstorm22 5pts 1 Like

@Bob86@ScottKacsmar Has anyone ever called that an amazing comeback by Manning?

Bob86 5pts

@dmstorm22@ScottKacsmar Probably not, but it's just one of the 35 and one of the 46 that many Colts/Manning fans like to brag about. And when they do so, they do not concern themselves with context anymore than the people who discredit Manning for that 9-10 postseason record.

vishal_07 5pts

After reading the above article (which I must say has bits and pieces from what Nate has been posting in the last few years at 18to88.com) I am also wondering if there is anything that could have been done to get better plan/personnel on field for the D. Colts have been always close to the salary cap so its not like one could go get better players.

We all agree that BB is one of the better coaches out there (evil but great football brains) but since they have focused on Brady to carry the team their playoff record has suffered so it is not that a great game plan has helped them much, and even with the availability of a number of great draft picks (what with trades and all) they haven't found great D players - may be they will develop into some eventually but Brady would decline by then.

Thoughts?

Payton 5pts

@vishal_07 Get a NT capable of drawing double teams and a 3-tech DT that can get consistent penetration 1 v 1 and actually wrap. Getting some secondary players who don't suck and are durable would help too

vishal_07 5pts

@Payton

When a team is always close to the salary cap it will be hard to find an upgrade over existing players, plus one doesn't know who is going to get injured and who is not unless that someone is named Bob Sanders.

silentkman 5pts

I like Peyton as much as the next guy, but to try to deflected the blame from him is ridiculous. He is the Quarterback. he gets all the accolades when they win, but now it's not his fault. The analysis was interesting. Football is suppose to be a team game but Peyton and the Polians made it a individual game. I guess it's nobody's fault that the Colts lost. The Super Bowl lost to the Saints was a product of horrible coaching and a horrible throw to an injured player. I want the Colts to be come a team again.

Fondue 5pts

@silentkman Most of the people around here realize that Peyton SHOULDN'T get all the credit for the wins, though. It's just that that's usually less of an issue.

silentkman 5pts

@Fondue I think this past year has proven that's it's all Peyton. I think somebody mention that he was worth nine to ten wins. If he that valuable he must take 90% of the blame when they lose.

Fondue 5pts

@silentkman This year was blown out of proportion. Yes, Peyton is more integral to his team's success than any other QB and he makes everyone better, but there was still a load of talent on his teams most of his career. Then you replace the GOAT QB with the worst QB in the league on a QB-centric team while the defense regresses to as bad as it's been (until Coyer was fired), of course there's gonna be a huge letdown. And even with all of the the Colts were still competitive in the 4thQ of many of their losses.

Kyle Rodriguez moderator 5pts 2 Like

@silentkman@Fondue So, because Manning is so good, and the rest of the team isn't... then he should be blamed for the team not winning? Hmmm..

Payton 5pts

@silentkman@Fondue No the coaching this year was god fucking awful too. Way worse than normal

Peyton for President 5pts 1 Like

Pretty awesome article. Manning has definetely laid a few eggs, but what player hasn't. Even the 06 Baltimore game which was by no means a good statistical game by Peyton was a chess match between a great D and a great QB, and Manning made some brilliant throws. When you look at the entire picture Manning definetely receives far too much criticism. As much as I love to disagree with Nate he makes a very good and absolutley true point about starting field position below. No one player can win in the playoffs. Ask Tom Brady.There will always be Manning haters but the facts speak for themselves. Maybe a little off topic but if we judge players by playoff success and rings, why aren't Bradshaw and Aikman mentioned with the "best ever"? Charles Haley has 5 rings so he must be the geatest player ever right? No, I forgot he wasn't a QB. The other 52 guys matter despite the media narritive that it is all about the QB.