Colts fans have always struggled with the conservative approach both Tony Dungy and Jim Caldwell employee on 4th downs near mid-field. A prep school coach in Arkansas has tossed out conventional wisdom and turned to data. The verdict apparently favors the fans:
The decision not to punt? According to Kelley's statistics, when a team punts from near its end zone, the opponent will take possession inside the 40-yard line and will then score a touchdown 77 percent of the time. If it recovers on downs inside the 10, it will score a touchdown 92 percent of the time. "So [forsaking] a punt, you give your offense a chance to stay on the field," he said. "And if you miss, the odds of the other team scoring only increase 15 percent. It's like someone said, '[Punting] is what you do on fourth down,' and everyone did it without asking why."