Andrew Aziz of Everything Colts checks in with his weekly preview
What the Colts Need To Do To Win
The Colts need to play turnover-free football. Curtis Painter can't make stupid decisions and must limit the bad passes. Now, a quarterback is not the only person can turnover the ball, the running back can too. Delone Carter and fellow running backs need to hang on to the ball. They have fumbled at least once in the last 4 weeks. With a bad offense in Jacksonville, the Colts need to take advantage of all the possesions they can have, and that means not turning the ball over.
On offense, Curtis Painter needs to be accurate and make smart throws. He needs to get good positive yards on first down, so that 2nd and 3rd downs are easier. Dallas Clark is out, but Jacob Tamme is the perfect replacement, as he was the best tight end (in the NFL) in the 2nd half of the season last year. He has the weapons, but the question is, will he hook up with them. He has to to win. The running back, whether it be Delone Carter, Joseph Addai or Donald Brown need to run hard. If Painter has an off-game, the running game will need to bail him out. That means making key first down runs on 3rd down, getting good yards on 1st down, and catching the ball if needed too. Donald Brown dropped some passes last week, and it hurt us. The protection is not that much of a worry, but Matt Roth is pretty good so stopping him should be the main priority.
On defense, they need to shut down MJD (Maurice Jones-Drew). If they shut him down, I'm nearly 100% sure the Colts can shut down their offense. The Colts may have a bad pass defense, but the Jaguars do not attempt the long bomb that often (2 or 3 times a game on average) and they do not have any threats at receiver, as Mike Thomas is their best receiver. If MJD gets over 4.5 yards a carry, this game is hopeless. Pat Angerer needs to come through, and the Antoine Bethea needs to be there before MJD gets a huge run off. Blaine Gabbert, their quarterback, is a rookie and has not played well against pressure. With that being said, Robert Mathis and Dwight Freeney need to wake up from their nap. They have not gotten a sack since Week 5. They showed signs of life last week, but they need to wake up this week, and with an ailing Jags line, here's their shot! So, shut down MJD and pressure Blaine Gabbert to halt their offense.
What The Jaguars Need to Do To Win
On offense, it's simple. Open holes for MJD, and let him just plow through this mediocre rush defense. They have had some trouble against good running backs in the last month, as Michael Turner, Darren Sproles, and Jackie Battle have run over them. They can also target Marcedes Lewis on some intermediate plays, and target Mike Sims Walker in the endzone, who should have a 5 or 6 inch height advantage on his cornerback counterpart.
The defense needs to pressure Painter and create turnovers. The most important thing is to really stop their run, so that Painter has to throw over 45 times. This defense is terrific, and if they can hold the Colts to under 13 points they'll take this game.
Breakout Performers/ Key Matchup
For the Colts, it's Curtis Painter. He needs to wake up from his slump, look at his players he works with and score points. He needs to make reads and make good passes, whether it be the long bomb or the short pass, he just has to make them.
For the Jaguars, it's MJD. The game rests in his hands; it's that simple.
The key matchup is Colts rush defense vs Jags rushing game. Whoever wins this matchup, wins the game.
What I Think Will Happen
I think that the Jaguars will start with the ball, and score on a 57 yard run by Maurice Jones-Drew. So it's going to be a bad start. At the end of the 1st quarter, it will be 7-3 Jaguars. The Jaguars will march down the field at the beginning of the 2nd quarter, and score off a Mike Sims Walker touchdown. The Colts will then go 3 and out, then the Jags will go 3 and out. The Colts will go no huddle at the end of the 2nd quarter, and get a field goal. The halftime score will be 14-6. The Colts will start with the ball in the 2nd half, but they'll get nothing out of it. The Jags will come out and score a field goal. The Colts will come back and do nothing and end the 3rd quarter down by 11 points (17-6). At the start of the 4th quarter, the Colts will get down the field and get their first score of the day off a 6 yard Reggie Wayne screen pass touchdown. The score will be 17-13 with 10 minutes left. The Jaguars will get the ball back and not score, and then the Colts will come back and throw a interception with 5 minutes left, and the Jaguars will score with a 2 yard MJD touchdown. The Colts will try to come back again, but they will be stopped on 4th down. The Jags will just run out the clock from there. Curtis Painter finishes the game 22 for 43 for 211 yards and 1 touchdown and 1 interception. Delone Carter will have 12 rushes for 46 yards and Donald Brown will have 8 rushes for 33 yards. Reggie Wayne will be the best receiver with 5 catches for 56 yards and a touchdown. For the Jags, Blaine Gabbert will go 17 for 28 with 256 yards and 1 touchdown. MJD will have 27 rushes for 137 yards and 2 touchdowns. Mike Sims Walker will be their best receiver with 4 catches for 67 yards and a touchdown. Robert Mathis will get a sack and so will Drake Nevis. The Colts fall to 0-10 going into the bye week.
Jaguars 24 vs Colts 13
Last Time They Played
2010 NFL Season -- Week 15
Colts 34 vs Jaguars 24