The AFC South and the Draft

Yesterday, I unveiled our 2011 Draft Project. Among the conclusions was that the Colts are incredibly efficient when it comes to maximizing draft points. 

You can explore the methodology and the data behind the draft project here. 

To provide further context for the Colts drafts, I will compare Indianapolis to the rest of the AFC South from 2002-2009.

To review, here is the Colts' chart:

Here are the numbers for Jacksonville:

The Jags had an amazing draft record for most of the eight years in question. During that span, however, they went just 63-65.  The Jags had physically imposing teams and invested heavily in a certain style of football team just at the moment the game was changing to favor faster, more efficient passing offenses. The 2007 Jaguars had a strong season and appeared to be on the brink of joining the upper echelon of the NFL, but age coupled with a horrendous draft (Harvey and Groves) destroyed any chance they had at becoming an elite team.  The good news for Jags fans is that they bounced back strong in 2009 with an excellent draft.

Tennessee Titans

The Titans have also been an excellent drafting team, especially recently, but the 2006 draft is emblematic of what has held the franchise back. The Titans drafted highly that year, and did reap some players. However, while guys like Vince Young and LenDale White had value, they were not nearly as good as they could have been. The Titans had a top 10 draft in terms of raw value, but their efficiency was only 22nd.  In other words, they should have done much, much better considering their slot.  And that basically sums up the period for the Titans as well.  They finished 71-57 over this span.

Houston Texans

Wow, it's almost as if the Texans got a new GM after the 2006 draft, huh?  The Texans have gotten decent value totals for most of the decade, but only because they were drafting at the top for most of those years. After Charlie Casserly departed following the 2006 draft, the Texans became much more efficient and their performance on the football field reflected that.  Over the last three years, the Texans have been the definition of league average when it comes to drafting.  Not surprisingly, they finished around .500 on the field as well, posting a record of 33-47 in the last 5 years, but 25-23 from 2007-2009.

Summary:

The other teams in the AFC South have drafted well for the most part, but the combination of the Colts consistency and failures to develop truly elite quarterbacks have held the Titans, Jags, and Texans back.  The Texans in particular are drafting better than they had for much of the early part of their history.  The Jaguars suffered a horrible draft at the worst possible moment. The Titans have gotten excellent draft production recently.

The AFC South should be a difficult division for the Colts to win thanks to excellent drafting by the other teams. Fortunately, questions at quarterback still dog the Titans and Jaguars, potentially crippling what would otherwise be talented teams.